Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

甲醇周报 （9.22 大越期货投资咨询部 -9.26 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 观点与策略 甲醇周评：临近长假交易逐步放淡，预计下周国内甲醇市场波动有限。内地方面，下游原料库存高位后 期采购预期缩量，且运力也缩紧，贸易商多离场观望。西北CTO工厂本周大量外采下，上游甲醇工厂库存不 多，节前也无排库需求。缺乏明显因素影响，预计节前内地甲醇清淡整理。港口方面，期货空头方面仍占上 风，预计节前甲醇市场价格或维持震荡调整；10月变量较大，重点是伊朗部分装置是否如期检修，装船量减 量及港口库存去库的程度，基本面边际改善下，关注港口市场炒作下的低多机会。 国内甲醇现货价格 | | 国内甲醇价格 （元/吨） | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. Port inventory increased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [8]. - The olefin operating rate increased this week after hedging, and is expected to continue to rise next week with the restart of some devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol market was strong this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2260 - 2320 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2260 - 2300 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise. Due to factors such as pre - holiday replenishment by downstream and stable olefin demand, the marketable volume of goods in the production area was tight, and the receiving price in northern Shandong increased steadily [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, and the overall inventory level remained low. Port inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week. The olefin operating rate increased this week and is expected to rise further next week [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 0.76% [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 20 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 18, there were 10,270 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 4,780 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 19, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 175.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 18, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of September 17, the market price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of September 18, China's methanol production was 1,813,165 tons, a decrease of 106,100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 5.52% month - on - month. As of September 17, the total port inventory was 1.5578 million tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 9.63% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a decrease of 14.66% year - on - year. As of September 18, the methanol import profit was 5.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.55 yuan/ton from last week [44][48][51]. - **Downstream**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.89%, an increase of 2.23% month - on - month. As of September 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton from last week [54][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate, and the MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The supply in inland production areas is tight due to increased olefin demand, and the downstream in sales areas has pre - holiday stocking demand, but the port's ability to flow goods back to the inland restricts price increases. The port has a strong far - month expectation due to reduced imports, but high inventory restricts the spot market. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is also bearish. The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the line, which is neutral. The main position is net long with an increase in longs, which is bullish [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production is affected by gas shortages and equipment shutdowns, some acetic acid plants are put into production or have production plans, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6] - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined, coal - to - methanol plants have profit margins and are actively selling, and some production area plants have accumulated inventory [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2310 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 65. Domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends, with some rising and some falling slightly. International methanol prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia also have certain changes [5][8][9] - **Inventory data**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, an increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5] - **Operating rate data**: The weighted average national operating rate of methanol plants is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased to varying degrees [8] - **Profit data**: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 335 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 513 yuan/ton [22] - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable. The production profits and loads of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO also have different trends [33][36][39][42][47] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or production reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58] - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have low operating rates, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [59] - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Yan'an Energy and Chemical Industry, etc. [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased this week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly as expected, and the reverse flow to the inland has significantly boosted the import demand. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels will change little, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly after hedging [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2490 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market continued to decline this week with a reduced amplitude. The inland methanol market also continued to decline. The price of Ordos in the main production area fluctuated between 2042 - 2057 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying fluctuated at 2295 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall production has increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. The import demand may be stable next week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a +2.29% increase [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 5, the MA 1 - 5 spread was 5 [14] - Position analysis: As of September 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,036, an increase of 290 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of September 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2067.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 207.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Overseas price: As of September 4, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 259 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton from last week [39] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of September 3, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.06 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - Industry: As of September 4, China's methanol production was 1,962,815 tons, an increase of 43,690 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. As of September 3, the total port inventory was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 341,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of September 4, the import profit was 11.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.42 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][53] - Downstream: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 87.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. As of September 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week [56][59]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：宏观面暂无利好，而供需矛盾逐步凸显，预计本周国内甲醇价格或承压下行。内地来看，近期检修装置不 多，而八月下旬易高、世林等多套甲醇装置重启，供应明显放量。而宁夏CTO工厂外采减少，以及9月初的大型活动对华 北区域内需求有影响，且港口低价货源倒流对内地行情也有压制，缺乏利好驱动预计短线内地甲醇下行调整。港口方 面，伊朗装船发运较为集中，预期港口将持续累库；但伴随价格下跌，后续港口货倒流内地走量或逐渐扩大；且印度价 格继续走强，关注转口窗口；宏观面降温，基本面偏弱，弱现实主导下，短期驱动仍然向下；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2245元/吨，01合约基差- ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-01甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：宏观面暂无利好，而供需矛盾逐步凸显，预计本周国内甲醇价格或承压下行。内地来看，近期检修装置不 多，而八月下旬易高、世林等多套甲醇装置重启，供应明显放量。而宁夏CTO工厂外采减少，以及9月初的大型活动对华 北区域内需求有影响，且港口低价货源倒流对内地行情也有压制，缺乏利好驱动预计短线内地甲醇下行调整。港口方面， 伊朗装船发运较为集中，预期港口将持续累库；但伴随价格下跌，后续港口货倒流内地走量或逐渐扩大；且印度价格继 续走强，关注转口窗口；宏观面降温，基本面偏弱，弱现实主导下，短期驱动仍然向下；中性 2、基差：江 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2330 - 2410 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of inland methanol enterprises increased this week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The increase in port inventory depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels [8] - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in China is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2330 - 2410 range in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market weakened, and the inland market declined. The price ranges in different regions are provided [8] - Market outlook: Production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory increased, and port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price movement: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.83% [13] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 29, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 11 [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of August 29, there were 9746 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 920 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 29, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2222.5 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; in Northwest Inner Mongolia, it was 2050.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 28, methanol CFR China Main Port was 258 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China Main Port was 64 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 29, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 138.5 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, NYMEX natural gas closed at 299 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] - Industry: As of August 28, China's methanol production was 1918285 tons, an increase of 24290 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase [44] - Inventory: As of August 27, the total port inventory was 129.93 million tons, an increase of 22.33 million tons. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a 7.27% increase [49] - Import: In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 110.27 million tons, a 9.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 648.00 million tons, a 14.66% year - on - year decrease. As of August 28, the import profit was - 0.72 yuan/ton, down 17.2 yuan/ton from last week [52] - Downstream: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins was 86.41%, a 0.71% increase. As of August 29, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 909 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from last week [55][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2460 in the short - term [8]. - Recently, the output from restored methanol production capacity in China exceeds the loss from maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall output. This week, some enterprises' inventory levels climbed slightly due to fewer previous orders and a slow long - term order pickup pace. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week despite the opened reverse flow space in East China ports [9]. - This week, olefin plants operated stably, with the second - phase plant of Shaanxi Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin restarted and increasing its load. Next week, the olefin plant of Sinopec Zhongyuan is expected to restart, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2460 in the short - term [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, domestic port methanol inventory continued to accumulate, and prices remained weak. The reverse flow space from East China ports to Anhui market has opened, but it has limited impact on port pick - up. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line in the range of 2070 - 2095 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying in the range of 2295 - 2325 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol output increased slightly. Port inventory is expected to keep rising. Olefin plant operating rates are expected to increase [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% [14]. - As of August 22, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 111 [18]. - As of August 22, there were 10,666 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 302 from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of August 22, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2297.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2072.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - As of August 21, the CFR price of methanol at China's main ports was 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China's main ports was 58 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of August 22, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.5 yuan/ton from last week [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [44]. - **Industry** - As of August 21, China's methanol output was 1,897,395 tons, an increase of 34,120 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 83.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [47]. - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 207,400 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% [52]. - In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of August 21, the methanol import profit was 16.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.37 yuan/ton from last week [55]. - **Downstream** - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45% [58]. - As of August 22, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 977 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market and predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. Specifically, MA2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. On the mainland, due to the pessimistic sentiment of industry players caused by the macro - environment and the lack of further positive factors in demand, the willingness of long - term contract traders to sell has increased significantly. However, the relatively tight inventory of methanol enterprises in the mainland, especially in production areas, provides some support for prices. In the port area, the significant fluctuations in coking coal and coke have a negative feedback on the methanol futures and spot markets, and the positive factors supporting the market have reversed. Coupled with the expected continuous inventory build - up in ports and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for positive guidance from policy and news. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show a neutral situation on the mainland and in ports. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, with an increase in port inventories. The disk shows a bearish signal as the 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average. The main position shows a bullish signal as the main position is net long but the long positions are decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 fluctuating between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), a decrease in methanol production start - up in Iran, low port inventories, the production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen since May 16, the planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong in late August, and the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest. [6] - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE start - up, a certain profit margin for coal - to - methanol production with active sales, and the accumulation of inventory in some factories in production areas due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are price data for various types of methanol in the spot and futures markets, including the prices of ring - Bohai Sea thermal coal, CFR China main port, import costs, etc., as well as price changes and spreads. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 3.88% this week, while the futures price increased by 0.67%. [8][9][11] - **Start - up Rate Data**: The weighted average national start - up rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 891,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 87,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 72,900 tons to 571,200 tons. [4] - **Profit Data**: The profit of coal - to - methanol production decreased by 77 yuan/ton this week, while the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol production increased by 323 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained unchanged. [19] - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week. The production profit of acetic acid increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde remained at a loss, and the production profit of dimethyl ether remained stable. [29][34][37] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Energy Chemical, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses. [57] - **Overseas Methanol Device Maintenance**: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different states, such as the QAFAC in Qatar having a maintenance period from the end of February to March 16, and the G3 in the United States having an unplanned shutdown until early May. [58] - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some domestic olefin production devices are in a state of maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy having a 45 - day maintenance starting from March 15, and China Coal Lin having a maintenance plan in the second quarter. [59]