兆新股份 20251117 摘要 兆新股份三季度营收 3.22 亿元，同比增长 34%，毛利 9,546 万元，同 比增长 33%，已超去年全年水平，预计全年出口增速约 40%。公司正 积极拓展国际市场，并布局新能源 EPC、智慧运营、电力市场化交易、 储能和充电等新业务。 兆新股份通过债转股获得青海景泰项目，计划通过光伏加储能加充电及 盐湖提锂一体化开发模式，实现清洁能源生产、储能、消纳和资源产出 的产业闭环，打造行业示范标杆。 兆新股份以较低成本重新布局锂矿碳酸锂产业，通过司法裁决提高青海 景泰持股比例至 15%，抓住当前进入锂矿赛道的有利时机，实现战略性 布局。 青海景泰拥有约 450 平方公里优质盐湖锂资源，可利用氯化锂资源储量 达 163.49 万吨，可采氯化锂储量约 130.79 万吨，折合碳酸锂当量 113.84 万吨，每年设计生产规模为 2 万吨，服务年限 21.17 年。 兆新股份在海南注册公司赵维能源，布局数据开发、智慧运维和数据存 储等业务，聚焦智慧运维相关业务，探索保供方案，并与海外头部存储 供应商探索合作。 Q&A 兆新股份在 2025 年第三季度的经营情况如何？ 兆新股份在 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its professional power trading team and focusing on market-oriented trading strategies to improve operational efficiency and decision-making [1] Group 1: Team Development and Management - The company is upgrading trading management methods by leveraging digital and informational tools to empower power trading [1] - Continuous improvement of team capabilities is being emphasized to enhance the business acumen of trading personnel [1] Group 2: Policy and Decision-Making - The company is closely monitoring policy changes and has established a mechanism for analyzing key trading policies [1] - A dynamic tracking mechanism for implementation details is being set up to improve the scientific nature of decision-making [1] Group 3: Operational Management - The company is committed to maintaining effective operation and maintenance management of power plants to ensure the generation capacity of projects [1]

Summary of China Nuclear Power Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: China Nuclear Power - **Industry**: Nuclear Power and Renewable Energy in China Key Points and Arguments 1. **Q3 2025 Financial Performance**: - Revenue reached 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of over 10% [1] - Market reaction indicated that performance was slightly below expectations, primarily due to settlement issues and the performance of renewable energy [1][2] 2. **Electricity Generation**: - Total electricity generated in the first three quarters was 174 billion kWh, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [4] - Nuclear power generation accounted for 141.2 billion kWh, up 11.44% year-on-year [4] - Renewable energy generation was 32.8 billion kWh, a significant increase of 34.82% [4] 3. **Revenue and Profit Breakdown**: - Total revenue for the first three quarters was 61.6 billion yuan, an 8.16% increase year-on-year [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8 billion yuan, down 10.42% year-on-year [4] - Average electricity price was approximately 0.3867 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 0.0246 yuan per kWh compared to the previous year [4] 4. **Cost Increases**: - Increased operating costs included a rise in nuclear fuel costs by 949 million yuan and depreciation costs by 813 million yuan [5] - Tax expenses increased due to higher profits from specific nuclear projects, leading to a rise in overall tax liabilities [5] 5. **Renewable Energy Challenges**: - Renewable energy projects faced significant profit declines, with net profit down 67.96% year-on-year, primarily due to new policies limiting electricity sales and profit margins [5][6] - The reduction in tax incentives for existing projects also contributed to the profit decline [6] 6. **Market Dynamics**: - Market-based electricity transactions accounted for over 1 billion kWh, representing about 71% of total sales [7] - Market prices for nuclear power decreased slightly, with specific provinces maintaining stable pricing due to regulatory frameworks [7][8] 7. **Future Projects and Capacity**: - The company has 26 operational units with a total capacity of 25 million kW and 19 units under construction with a capacity of 21.86 million kW [9] - New projects are expected to come online in the next 5-6 years, with the first unit expected to be operational by the end of the year [9] 8. **Impact of Tax Policy Changes**: - Recent adjustments to VAT policies are expected to have a manageable impact on operational units but will affect new projects starting from 2025 [10][12] - The overall effect on net profit is estimated to be around 400 million yuan due to these changes [11] 9. **Market Outlook and Strategic Measures**: - The company anticipates a gradual increase in market-based electricity sales, with a focus on maintaining profitability despite market pressures [18][19] - Strategies include cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and exploring new revenue streams through green energy initiatives [39][40] 10. **Investor Engagement**: - The call included a Q&A session where analysts raised concerns about tax rates, market electricity prices, and future renewable energy capacity [16][23][29] - Management provided insights into operational strategies and market conditions, emphasizing a proactive approach to navigating challenges [18][37] Additional Important Information - The company is actively monitoring regulatory changes and market conditions to adapt its strategies accordingly [12][39] - There is a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through digitalization and standardization initiatives [40] - The management remains optimistic about the long-term value of nuclear assets despite short-term fluctuations in performance [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Guangdong electricity market, particularly highlighting the expected revenue increase for nuclear power due to the discontinuation of the variable cost compensation mechanism [3]. Core Insights - The Guangdong Electricity Trading Center has released the key mechanisms and parameters for the 2026 electricity market, indicating that all renewable energy generation will enter the market, with a trading price based on a benchmark price plus a floating range [3]. - The annual trading price for 2026 is set with a reference price of 0.463 yuan/kWh, with an upper limit of 0.554 yuan/kWh and a lower limit of 0.372 yuan/kWh [3]. - The nuclear power market transaction volume is expected to increase, with a planned market transaction volume of approximately 312 billion kWh for 2026, which is an increase of 39 billion kWh from the previous year [3]. - The discontinuation of the variable cost compensation mechanism for nuclear power is anticipated to enhance revenue, with projections indicating an increase of approximately 4 billion yuan if the trading price remains at the lower limit [3]. Summary by Sections Annual Trading Arrangements - The annual trading arrangements for 2026 will follow the guidelines set forth in the Guangdong Electricity Market's annual trading implementation plan, with all renewable energy projects entering the market [3]. Pricing Mechanisms - The trading price will be determined based on a benchmark price of 0.453 yuan/kWh, with a floating range of 20%, leading to a market reference price of 0.463 yuan/kWh for 2026 [3]. Nuclear Power Market - The nuclear power sector is set to see a significant increase in market transaction volume, with the planned volume for 2026 being 312 billion kWh, which is a notable increase from the previous year [3]. - The removal of the variable cost compensation mechanism is expected to lead to a revenue increase for nuclear power, with estimates suggesting an additional 10 billion yuan in revenue if the trading price remains stable [3].

Company Situation - On October 21, the Guangdong Power Trading Center released the "Key Mechanisms and Parameters for Guangdong Power Market Trading in 2026," which indicates that the annual marketized electricity volume will increase from 27.3 billion kWh in 2025 to 31.2 billion kWh in 2026 [1] - The new plan reflects the Guangdong government's recognition of the value of nuclear power as a clean baseload energy source, providing positive support for the performance of the nuclear power industry in China in 2026 [1] Electricity Pricing - In 2026, nuclear power units will no longer execute the variable cost compensation mechanism, with the theoretical floor price for thermal and nuclear power set at 20% below the coal benchmark price, which is 0.372 yuan/kWh [1] - Compared to 2025, the annual market trading average price was 0.392 yuan/kWh, with variable cost compensation of 0.041 yuan/kWh, resulting in an effective price of approximately 0.351 yuan/kWh after compensation [1] - Monthly market trading prices have been close to the floor price since February, with an effective price of approximately 0.332 yuan/kWh after variable cost compensation [1] Electricity Volume - The new plan increases the market trading proportion of the 10 marketized trading units (with utilization hours under 7,500 hours) from about 35% to 40%, and the overall proportion from about 40% to 45% when considering all hours above 7,500 hours entering market trading [1] - It is assumed that annual trading will account for about 90% of marketized trading, with the remainder being monthly and other types [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The impact on profitability for Guangdong units in 2026 may include a bottoming out of annual market trading electricity prices, an increase in comprehensive electricity prices after the cancellation of variable cost compensation, and a reduction in some electricity prices from planned to market trading prices [2] - Assuming relatively fixed costs and unchanged net profit attributable to the parent company, the comprehensive impact on profitability is estimated to be 300 to 400 million yuan [2] - Based on the 2026 electricity trading plan, the comprehensive electricity price is expected to increase compared to 2025, with a 4.8% increase in profit forecast for 2026 to 10.1 billion yuan [2] - Current A/H share prices correspond to 21.3x/20.2x and 15.5x/14.5x price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-26, maintaining an outperform rating and target prices of 5.07 yuan and 3.59 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 26% and 13% respectively compared to current A/H share prices [2]

Core Points - The article highlights the benefits of electricity market reforms in Jiangsu Province, particularly in Xuzhou, where businesses have significantly reduced their electricity purchasing costs [1] - The report indicates that by 2025, approximately 23,900 commercial and industrial users will participate in the electricity market, leading to substantial savings in electricity costs [1] - The growth of green electricity trading in Jiangsu is emphasized, with a remarkable increase in trading volume since 2021, contributing to significant reductions in coal consumption and carbon emissions [1] Group 1 - The company reported a monthly reduction of over 70,000 yuan in electricity costs due to direct participation in market transactions [1] - In the first half of the year, market-based electricity consumption reached 10.226 billion kilowatt-hours, saving approximately 40 million yuan monthly for electricity users [1] - As of September, over 160,000 market users in Jiangsu consumed more than 490 billion kilowatt-hours, with total market transactions exceeding 650 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for over 80% of total electricity consumption [1] Group 2 - The Jiangsu Development and Reform Commission aims to promote the participation of renewable energy in market transactions by the end of 2024 [1] - Since the launch of national green electricity trading in 2021, the trading volume in Jiangsu has surged from 1.369 billion kilowatt-hours to 20.34 billion kilowatt-hours, with an annual growth rate of 96% [1] - The electricity trading covers various sectors, including energy, chemicals, electronics, and foreign trade, resulting in a reduction of 6.244 million tons of coal and a decrease of 15.564 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its professional power trading team and focusing on the deepening of market-oriented electricity trading through various strategic initiatives [1] Group 1: Team Development and Training - The company is upgrading its trading management methods by leveraging digital and informational tools to empower electricity trading [1] - The company is organizing specialized training to improve the professional skills of its trading personnel [1] Group 2: Policy Monitoring and Analysis - The company is closely monitoring policy changes and has established a mechanism for analyzing key trading policies [1] - A dynamic tracking mechanism for the implementation details of these policies has been set up to enhance decision-making [1] Group 3: Operational Management - The company is committed to maintaining effective operation and maintenance management of its power plants to ensure their generation capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, despite a 3% increase in national electricity consumption, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) experienced a decline in revenue and profit, indicating pressure on its performance [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - CGN reported a revenue of 39.167 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.53% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.952 billion yuan, down 16.30% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The overall gross margin for the company was 43.29%, which is a decline of 5.44 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Electricity Generation and Sales - CGN managed 28 operational nuclear power units and 20 under construction, with a total installed capacity of 31,796 MW and 24,222 MW, respectively, accounting for 44.46% of the national total [3][4]. - The total electricity generated by CGN's operational units was 113.36 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.93% [4]. - Electricity sales accounted for 78.27% of CGN's total revenue, with sales amounting to 30.658 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The average market electricity price fell by over 8% year-on-year, impacting CGN's revenue despite increased electricity generation [4][5]. - The approved electricity price for CGN's operational units ranged from 0.35 to 0.42 yuan per kWh, while the average market price decreased to approximately 0.384 yuan per kWh [5][6]. - The decline in market prices was attributed to a relaxed power supply-demand balance and the introduction of renewable energy into the market [5]. Group 4: Regional Market Insights - Guangdong province is a crucial market for CGN, contributing 20.564 billion yuan to its revenue, which is 52.50% of the total [6]. - The electricity market in Guangdong is largely covered by medium- and long-term transactions, with a significant drop in average transaction prices compared to the previous year [6]. Group 5: Strategic Developments - CGN announced plans to acquire four nuclear power companies from its controlling shareholder, China General Nuclear Group [6].

Core Viewpoint - Strengthening electricity marketing capabilities and comprehensive utilization of nuclear energy are important measures for nuclear power companies to adapt to the trends of market-oriented electricity trading [2][7]. Group 1: Impact of Market Trends - The profitability of nuclear power companies is increasingly affected by the acceleration of the electricity spot market and the entry of renewable energy, leading to a decline in electricity trading prices [3]. - Both China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power reported a decrease in revenue and net profit despite an increase in total electricity generation due to the impact of market price fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - China Nuclear Power's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.48% to 5.322 billion yuan, but overall net profit declined due to significant holdings in renewable energy assets [5]. - China General Nuclear Power's average market settlement price for electricity decreased by approximately 8.23% compared to the same period in 2024, impacting its financial performance [4]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China General Nuclear Power is focusing on closely monitoring regional electricity market changes and optimizing marketing strategies to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations [6]. - China Nuclear Power is establishing independent electricity sales companies to deepen its market presence and enhance its electricity trading strategies [6]. Group 4: Diversification Efforts - Both companies are enhancing the multi-purpose utilization of nuclear energy to address the economic impacts of market-oriented reforms on nuclear projects, with initiatives in nuclear heating and industrial steam supply [7].

Core Insights - The profitability of nuclear power companies in China is increasingly affected by the trend of market-oriented electricity trading, with both China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and China National Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (CNNP) reporting declines in net profits for the first half of the year [1][2] Financial Performance - CGN's net profit for the first half of the year decreased by 16.3% to 5.952 billion yuan, marking the first decline in net profit for the same period since 2019 [1] - CNNP's net profit slightly fell by 3.66% to 5.666 billion yuan, showing a significant slowdown in growth compared to the past five years [1] - The decline in profits for both companies is attributed to falling electricity market prices due to the accelerated construction of the electricity spot market and the full entry of renewable energy [1][2] Market Dynamics - The main business of CGN and CNNP includes the construction, operation, and management of nuclear power plants, with profitability primarily derived from electricity sales [2] - The average market settlement price for CGN's operating nuclear power units decreased by approximately 8.23% compared to the same period in 2024, despite the approved electricity price remaining unchanged [2] - Both companies reported an increase in the total electricity generated by their operating nuclear units, with CNNP's total electricity generation rising by 12.13% to 93.551 billion kWh and CGN's increasing by 6.93% to 113.36 billion kWh [2] Renewable Energy Integration - CNNP's net profit from nuclear and related businesses grew by 9.48% to 5.322 billion yuan, but the overall net profit declined due to significant holdings in wind and solar energy assets [3] - The installed capacity of renewable energy held by CNNP increased by nearly 50% to 33.225 million kW, with renewable energy electricity generation rising by 35.81% to 21.553 billion kWh [3] - The decline in net profit for CNNP's subsidiary, which holds renewable assets, was 31.7% to 1.14 billion yuan, influenced by lower market settlement prices and increased depreciation [3] Strategic Responses - To address the risks associated with market price fluctuations, CGN is focusing on detailed electricity marketing strategies tailored to specific provinces and enhancing marketing efforts to attract quality customers [4][5] - CNNP plans to deepen its engagement in regional electricity markets through independent electricity sales companies and aims to optimize trading strategies while promoting the synergy between nuclear and renewable energy [4][5] - Both companies are enhancing their internal electricity marketing management systems and strengthening their talent development to adapt to the expanding market [5] Diversification Efforts - CGN is actively developing nuclear energy for heating, having established the first clean heating project in Northeast China, which has been operational for three heating seasons [5] - CNNP is expanding into industrial steam supply, with the first industrial nuclear steam supply project, "Heqi No. 1," successfully supplying over 3 million tons of steam since its launch [5]