在跌宕起伏的行情背后，是市场围绕今年新季红枣减产的博弈。 虽然新季减产是共识，但市场对减产幅度存在较大分歧。其中，多头方面认为，新季将大幅减产至约40万吨；但空头方面则认为，新季产量约 为55万吨，仅小幅减产而已。多空的严重分歧，导致红枣期价从8月份起走出了跌宕起伏的行情。 但是近期这一情况最近出现了变化，由于受节气影响，新疆部分地区出现了红枣提前下树的情形，其中和田、且末等地区在10月底已进入集中 采摘期，阿拉尔、阿克苏等地区也零星下树。"虽然主流收购价格（6.50元/公斤至8.00元/公斤）高于去年同期（约4.50元/公斤至5.50元/ 公斤），但由于新枣提前下树供应叠加旧枣的高库存，客商或选择观望或偏向主流低价位采购，从而导致近期价格的承压下跌。" 从目前的价格反应来看，新季大幅减产的预期似乎落空，更大的可能是小幅减产；但由于目前尚未定产，减产幅度无法证伪，后续仍存在一定 的变数。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 2025年11月4日，红枣期货大跌5.55%，报收9695元/吨。值得注意的是，红枣看跌期权合约迎来暴涨。红枣2601沽9500期权单日大涨 173.81%，价格从42 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, without continuous bullish weather conditions, the price of jujube futures rose first and then fell, and the position volume reached a record high since its listing [6]. - The spot price of jujubes in the third quarter started high, then declined, and rebounded with overall low - level fluctuations [32]. - There is a large gap in the estimated new - season jujube production in 2025 among different research institutions [49][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Jujube Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Price**: The price of jujube futures rose and then fell in the third quarter, with the position volume at a high level since listing. Data on the closing prices of jujube 2509, 2601, and 2505 contracts, as well as the month - to - month spreads between 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, and the jujube warehouse receipt registration volume are presented [6][10][13]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of jujubes in the third quarter started high, then declined, and rebounded with overall low - level fluctuations. The spot price of general jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas started high, but the increase was lower than market expectations. By the end of October, the premium of the jujube 2601 contract over the spot (standard Cangzhou special - grade) narrowed [32][35][38]. - **Price Correlation and Volatility**: Jujube futures and apple futures show a weak correlation. The one - year volatility of the jujube 2601 contract is also presented, along with the monthly price change data of jujube spot prices from 2018 - 2025 [42][45][47]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Production**: There is a large gap in the estimated new - season jujube production in 2025 among different research institutions. The estimated production ranges from 20 - 460,000 tons, with a reduction of 14% - 40% compared to the normal - year output of 650,000 tons. In 2024, the jujube production in Xinjiang increased significantly, reaching 700,000 tons, and institutions predict that the production in 2025 may be around 500,000 tons [49][50][53]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of jujubes decreases seasonally and will start to accumulate seasonally in November. Data on the inventory, production, consumption, and other aspects from 2019/20 - 2024/25 are also provided [54][56][57]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in October's New - Season Listing Period - The weather was generally good during the new - season jujube listing period in October. The growth stages of jujubes include eight stages: germination, early flowering, full - flowering, young - fruit, rapid - growth, maturity, leaf - falling, and dormancy [58][61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the red date market, highlighting a significant increase in inventory levels and a decline in futures prices, attributed to a combination of factors including production levels and consumer demand [1][8][16]. Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of October 31, 2025, physical inventory of red dates reached 9,348 tons, an increase of 245 tons week-on-week, representing a 2.69% rise compared to the previous week and a 120.78% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The 2024 production year in Xinjiang saw a record yield of 750,000 tons, leading to slow consumption of old date inventory [1][8]. - The market consensus indicates a slight reduction in new season production, with estimates ranging from 400,000 tons to 550,000 tons, reflecting significant disagreement among market participants [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - The main contract for red dates closed at 10,145 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, down 1.46%, with a weekly decline of 5.63%, marking the largest drop among domestic commodity futures [2]. - Since October 17, the futures price has dropped by 11.17%, while the corresponding spot price for dried red dates only decreased by 0.84% [2][13]. - The price fluctuations are attributed to the market's reaction to the anticipated production levels and the increasing inventory pressure due to weak consumer demand [13][16]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The overall performance of red date consumption has been lackluster, with a noted 20-day reduction in the traditional peak consumption period leading up to the Spring Festival [11]. - Promotional activities have intensified as merchants attempt to clear old inventory, with significant discounts observed in retail settings [8][9]. - The market is currently characterized by cautious purchasing behavior, with many buyers opting for on-demand procurement rather than bulk purchases [11][16]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - New delivery regulations allow for the delivery of old dates at a discount, which may impact market dynamics and pricing strategies [12][15]. - The changes in delivery rules are expected to stabilize the futures market while aligning it more closely with the spot market [15].

郑商所红枣期货旧季仓单集中注销，新季仓单至11月1日起开始注册。据统计，截至10月23日，36家样 本点物理库存在9103吨，周环比增加94吨，同比增加109.22%。 大陆期货表示，后续需关注新季红枣产量、质量及开秤价，若减产预期兑现，且消费有所恢复，红枣期 货有望延续上涨趋势，击穿前高12000附近成为可能，若库存压力持续或消费疲软，价格可能有冲高回 落动作，并结束本轮上涨态势。 受今年积温及节气影响，新疆红枣的成熟期较去年有所提前。在阿拉尔、阿克苏等地区，部分枣园在霜 降节气前就已开始零星下树。 东证期货指出，未来一周将是红枣下树前收购价格形成的关键期，期价预计受开秤价炒作频繁波动，建 议在收购价形成前以观望为主。 结合红枣各产区情况对标2022年度正常年份产量来看，初步估算产量较2022年度下降5-10%，较2024年 度下降20-25%，预估新季产量在56-62万吨，新作预期减产确认，但减产幅度不及2023年绝对小年幅 度。 10月24日，国内期市农副产品多数飘绿。其中，红枣期货主力合约开盘报11200.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，红枣主力最高触及11215.00元，下方探低108 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【本周红枣期货小涨，新季产量预估下降】期货方面，本周红枣2601合约小幅上涨。截至9月12日，收 盘价11155元/吨，环比涨155元/吨，涨幅1.41%。 现货方面，2024产季新疆灰枣收购价集中在4.50 - 5.50 元/公斤，收购均价5.33元/公斤。河北一级灰枣现货价9500元/吨，环比持平，现货基差CJ01 - 1655，环 比下跌155。 新季红枣主产区枣树进入上糖期，本周新疆主产区气温15 - 31度，下周预计降温降水。据 估算，新季产量较2022年度降5 - 10%，较2024年度降20 - 25%，预估在56 - 62万吨。 销区市场本周到货 量少，采购积极性一般，成交清淡，供需矛盾未有效缓解。河北崔尔庄市场有不同等级价格参考，36家 样本点物理库存9321吨，较上周减89吨，环比降0.95%。 2024产季红枣产量大、库存高但质量不佳，36 家样本点去库平缓，库存压力仍在。新季枣树有过渡透支问题，减产预期强，上糖期生长暂未异动。 销区现货价下调，购销清淡。本周新疆主产区枣果上糖，关注降雨对品质影响。若后续产量评估不及预 期，红枣 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market acknowledges the potential reduction in the new season's production, but there are differences in production estimates. Mysteel initially estimates that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an expected output of 56 - 62 million tons. Before the production is finalized, the expectation of a new - season production cut supports the red date futures price. However, as the previous price increase has digested the positive impact of the production cut, the driving force for the red date 2601 contract has weakened. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment, and attention should be paid to the actual new - season production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract is 11,470 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 136,661 lots, with an increase of 1,130 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,464 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 9,826. The total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,237, with an increase of 1 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red date products in different regions remain stable. For example, the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.8 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 4.1 in the area [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons compared to last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 79.94%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of Hao Xiang Ni's red dates is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 21st, in the Alar region, the weather changed from light rain to cloudy with temperatures between 16 - 28°C. Jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management, and the jujubes are about to enter the sugar - increasing period. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the fruits. On Thursday, the red date 2601 contract closed up 0.39% [2].

落地前，新作减产预期支撑红枣期货价格，但是随着前期价格上涨消化减产利多，红枣2601合约短期偏强 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、海关总署、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 调整，关注新作产量。操作上，建议短线交易为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 红枣产业日报 2025-08-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 11530 | -20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The red jujube futures market is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to a combination of adverse weather conditions in southern Xinjiang and high inventory levels, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since late June, trading volume for red jujube futures has increased significantly, with prices showing heightened volatility [1]. - Adverse weather, including sandstorms and high temperatures, has raised concerns about reduced yields for the new season, causing prices to rise from 9,800 yuan per ton to over 11,000 yuan [2]. - Despite initial price increases, the market has seen a rapid decline due to high inventory levels and cautious purchasing behavior from traders and processors [2][3]. Group 2: Production Estimates - There is considerable disagreement among industry experts regarding the expected reduction in red jujube production for 2025, with estimates ranging from a 5% to 25% decrease compared to 2024 [3]. - A report from Mysteel suggests a production estimate of 560,000 to 620,000 tons for the new season, while another source indicates a potential drop to 420,000 tons, reflecting a 35% decrease from normal production levels [3][4]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of the end of July, national red jujube inventory remains high, estimated between 400,000 to 450,000 tons, with significant stock in Hebei province [5]. - The market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with projected inventory levels of 300,000 to 350,000 tons even during the peak consumption season from August to October [5]. - Weak downstream demand and changing consumer habits are limiting price increases, with traders adopting a cautious purchasing strategy [5][6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key factors to monitor include the production data expected in October, inventory depletion rates, and weather conditions in September, particularly rainfall in Xinjiang, which could impact fruit quality and market sentiment [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment of red dates has improved, and the inventory reduction process is progressing well. The new season's crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, with an expected production decline of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, and an estimated new - season production of 56 - 62 million tons. Overall, the improving trading atmosphere and expected reduction in new - season production support the upward trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract is in an upward channel, and it is recommended to conduct long - biased trading [8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Market Trend**: This week, the price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% [8][11]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease, and a 72.62% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Production Forecast**: The new - season production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated production of 56 - 62 million tons [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct long - biased trading, with the support level for the red date 2601 contract at 11,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Future Trading Reminders**: Weather and consumption are the key factors to watch [8]. **Futures and Spot Market Conditions** - **Futures Price**: The price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% this week [8][11]. - **Futures Position**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 16,035 lots [15]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of this week, the number of red date warehouse receipts was 9,214 [17]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2601 contracts of red date futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 140 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main red date futures contract was - 1,095 yuan/ton [22]. - **Purchase Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the unified purchase prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.60 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [29]. - **Extra - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of extra - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 10.45 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [33]. **Industrial Chain Conditions** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, and a 79.94% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Supply - Production**: The 2024/25 production season of red dates is expected to see a recovery in production as the crops are growing well [43]. - **Demand - Export**: In June 2025, China's red date exports were 1,765,107 kilograms, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 17,115,674 kilograms, an 11.50% month - on - month increase [46]. - **Demand - Trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Red Date Good Brand had no trading volume [50]. **Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation** - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of HaoXiangNi was presented, but no specific data was provided [54].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report advises to view the jujube futures price from a bullish perspective in the near term, suggesting to continue holding long positions in the CJ601 contract and be cautious about the position limit and expiration risks of the CJ509 contract. For the long - term, it recommends waiting for the end of the opening - price game and then shorting the CJ605 contract opportunistically [1][2]. 2) Core Viewpoints The current jujube market is in a state of production game. The spot price in the sales area is rising steadily, and the futures price is oscillating upwards. The market's focus is on the supply side, with significant differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the futures price to break through and rise. The CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Content Spot Market - Xinjiang jujubes have entered the swelling period, and some first - crop fruits are starting to turn red. Last week, the spot sales in the sales area accelerated. The spot price in Cangzhou was stable with an upward trend, and the prices of high - quality goods were gradually strengthening. The average prices of super - grade and first - grade jujubes were 10.12 yuan/kg and 9.15 yuan/kg respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and 0.32 yuan/kg [1]. Futures Market - Recently, the jujube futures price has been oscillating upwards, breaking through the previous high pressure level last Friday. The market's trading focus is still on the supply side, and there are large differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The total open interest of jujube futures increased to more than 230,000 lots on Friday, remaining at a historical high, indicating intense long - short contradictions. The market recognizes the expected reduction in new - season jujube production due to adverse weather in June - July, but there are large disputes over the reduction range. The disputes over production will ultimately shift to the expected game of the new - season opening price. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the recent steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the jujube futures price to break through and rise. Technically, the CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1].