炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：天勇谈经济 题记：2025年12月17日，中信出版集团与北大国发院、北大中国经济研究中心共同主办"承泽论坛"第49 期暨《读懂"十五五"》新书分享会。本文根据中国经济体制改革研究会国民经济工程实验室主任，中国 人民大学全球治理研究院高级研究员，中央党校（国家行政学院）国际战略研究院原副院长周天勇的主 题演讲整理。 感谢北大"承泽论坛"第49期暨《读懂"十五五"》新书分享会的邀请。因为是在北大的演讲，今天来的听 众大部分是北大、清华和其他高校的学生，还有一部分是老师，我的演讲侧重于学理性，并结合数理逻 辑的推算，展望中国经济体制改革对未来增长的推动前景。 内容分为三个方面：一是改革与增长内生计算的数理逻辑；二是我国渐进式转轨经济的增长潜能究竟体 现在何处；三是今后需推进哪些关键领域的改革，才能实现经济的中高速增长。 改革与增长内生计算的数理逻辑 中国是一个特长周期经济体制转轨的国家。世界各国的体制类型主要分为三类：一是"资本主义+市场 经济"模式，二是社会主义+计划经济"模式，三是我国特色的"社会主义+市场经济"模式。并且，与前苏 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of Shanghai's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to double the per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020, which presents significant challenges and responsibilities [1] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to address systemic, structural, and cyclical issues facing Shanghai [1][2] - The municipal party committee's meeting focused on "original reform and leading openness," aiming to enhance the vitality of various business entities and deepen market-oriented reforms [1][2] Group 2 - Reform and opening-up measures must reflect innovation and align with new requirements, particularly in upgrading institutional openness and eliminating barriers [2] - Continuous optimization of the business environment is essential, with a focus on addressing urgent market needs and enhancing comprehensive service functions for enterprises [2] - Systematic and holistic institutional design is necessary to enhance the relevance, coordination, and consistency of reform measures, facilitating broader dissemination of reform benefits [2] Group 3 - Effective reform requires moving beyond traditional comfort zones and updating approaches, demanding greater determination and strategic decision-making [3] - All levels of government must unify efforts to promote breakthroughs in reform and opening-up, adapting strategies to current circumstances and maintaining a focus on sustainable economic development [3] - The goal is to achieve decisive progress in building a globally influential socialist modern international metropolis during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of focusing on key tasks for economic work in the coming year [1] - It highlighted the need to enhance development vitality and accelerate breakthroughs in economic system reforms [1] - The initiative to actively integrate into the national unified market construction was stressed, along with the strict implementation of a "national single list" management model [1] Group 2 - The meeting called for the establishment of a sound investment attraction system and the improvement of the market-oriented allocation mechanism for factors of production [1] - It aimed to fully stimulate the vitality of various business entities and implement a new round of special actions for state-owned enterprise reform [1] - The strategy to deepen the provincial strategy for a strong private economy in the new era was also emphasized [1] Group 3 - The meeting discussed the acceleration of creating a first-class business environment [1] - It proposed a coordinated approach to advance reforms in key areas and critical links [1] - The support for grassroots exploration of more original and differentiated reforms through the "one city, one pilot; one county, one characteristic" special reform initiative was highlighted [1]

格隆汇12月26日｜据山西日报，12月25日，山西省委经济工作会议在太原举行。会议提出明年经济工作 的十个方面重点任务。其中包括：大力推动能源转型。扛牢保障国家能源安全政治责任，持续深化能源 革命，推进煤炭智能绿色安全开采和清洁高效利用，大力发展新能源和清洁能源，加快构建新型电力系 统，着力构建新型能源体系，建设国家重要能源原材料基地，加快能源生产方式、消费方式、发展动力 转型。进一步全面深化改革扩大开放。充分发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，持续深化国资国企、民营经 济、财政金融、要素市场化配置等重点领域改革，不断优化营商环境。稳步扩大制度型开放，提升开放 平台和通道建设水平，推进贸易投资一体化、内外贸一体化发展，着力提升开放型经济水平。 ...

5. 中证协：12 月 15 日，中国证券业协会发布公告，根据《团体标准管理 规定》和《中国证券业协会团体标准工作规范》的相关规定，经协会第七届 理事会第四十一次会议审议同意，《证券行业应用 RPA 技术的通用功能和接口 规范》(编号：T/TSAC002—2025)纳为中国证券业协会团体标准。现予以公布， 自公布之日起实施。（资料来源：同花顺） 6. 广西：广西壮族自治区工业和信息化厅近日印发《广西培育先进制造业 集群行动方案》。其中提出，推动智能化数字化升级。深入实施"人工智能+ 制造"行动，深化人工智能、数字孪生、云计算、大数据等数字技术的集中 应用，发展智能机器人、具身智能、智能家居等智能产品，在集群内重点领 域打造一批应用场景和工业高质量数据集。（资料来源：同花顺） 东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 1. 商务部: 中澳自贸协定自 2015 年生效实施以来，有力推动了两国经贸 关系发展取得丰硕成果。2025 年 7 月，中澳两国签署关于实施和审议中澳自 贸协定的备忘录，决定启动协定总体审议工作。（资料来源：同花顺,新华社） 2. 国家统计局：国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，从未来看，我国投资 ...

Economic Policy Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance economic growth quality and reasonable growth quantity[5] - Fiscal deficit and total debt levels are expected to remain similar to this year, indicating sustained fiscal support[5] - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, utilizing tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[5] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand is prioritized as the main task for next year, with a focus on expanding consumption and stabilizing investment[6] - The conference highlighted the need to implement consumption-boosting actions and to continue policies like trade-in programs to stimulate consumer spending[6] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investments and directing funds towards key areas such as technology innovation and support for small and medium enterprises[6] Risk Management and Structural Reforms - The conference identified real estate and local government debt as key risk areas, with strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks[7] - Emphasis on creating a unified national market and enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policies, including both existing and new policies[6] - The need for a robust management mechanism for expectations was also highlighted to boost social confidence[6] Long-term Economic Goals - The overarching goal remains to build a strong domestic market and enhance the integration of domestic and international trade[12] - The focus on innovation and technology is set to drive new productivity, with initiatives to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions[6] - The commitment to green transformation and sustainable development is underscored, with plans for energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives[12]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Government has made significant progress in economic system reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of reform as a driving force for high-quality development and showcasing Guangdong's unique contributions to comprehensive reform efforts [1]. Group 1: Economic System Reforms - The vitality of business entities has increased, with the completion of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform and the highest number of "Science and Technology Reform Enterprises" and "Double Hundred Enterprises" in the country. The number of registered business entities in the province has surpassed 20 million, with over 9 million being enterprises [1]. Group 2: Market Rules Improvement - The province has implemented the "Five Unifications and One Openness" basic requirements to enhance integration into the national unified market. Guangdong has pioneered the evaluation of market access efficiency and established the first national fair competition pilot zone in collaboration with the State Administration for Market Regulation [2]. Group 3: Efficient Resource Allocation - Guangdong has promoted the inclusion of nine cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as national pilot regions for market-oriented resource allocation. Reforms in technology, land, talent, and capital factors have been initiated, including the establishment of a comprehensive system for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements [2]. Group 4: Optimized Business Environment - The province has introduced the "Three-Year Action Plan for Building an International First-Class Business Environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area" and has made significant strides in creating innovative pilot cities for business environment reform, with notable experiences in customized power supply services and policy accessibility for tech enterprises [3]. Group 5: Enhanced Comprehensive Reform Effectiveness - The Shenzhen comprehensive reform pilot has been advanced with 48 innovative measures promoted nationwide. The province has also issued the first provincial-level application scenario innovation policy document, facilitating the introduction of social capital into major projects and leading the nation in the issuance and fundraising scale of real estate investment trusts (REITs) [3].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province is committed to deepening reforms and enhancing economic development, positioning itself as a leader in China's economic landscape, with significant achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Group 1: Economic Performance - Guangdong's GDP is projected to reach 14.16 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top province in China for 36 consecutive years, with an average growth rate of 4.7% from 2021 to 2024 [1] - The province's general public budget revenue is expected to reach 1.35 trillion yuan, also ranking first nationally for 34 years [1] - The industrial revenue from large-scale enterprises is 19.41 trillion yuan, while the service sector's added value is 8.14 trillion yuan, both leading the country [1] Group 2: Reform Initiatives - Guangdong has completed its three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform, with the highest number of "Science and Technology Reform Enterprises" and "Double Hundred Enterprises" in the country [2] - The province has implemented a series of policies to support the private economy, including the "30 Measures for Private Economy" and "24 Measures for Private Investment" [2] - As of September, the number of registered business entities in Guangdong has surpassed 20 million, with over 9 million being enterprises [2] Group 3: Market and Regulatory Improvements - Guangdong has adopted a "national unified list" management model for market access and is the first to conduct market access efficiency assessments [3] - The province is enhancing fair competition through collaboration with the National Market Supervision Administration to establish a national fair competition pilot zone [3] - Guangdong is promoting the establishment of an international trading center for electronic components and integrated circuits in Shenzhen [3] Group 4: Resource Allocation and Environment - The province is advancing comprehensive reforms in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on efficient allocation of resources, including technology, land, talent, and capital [4] - Guangdong is implementing a three-year action plan for creating a world-class business environment in the Greater Bay Area, with specific regulations and pilot projects in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [4] - The province has introduced innovative measures to streamline business operations, such as one-stop services for company registration [4] Group 5: Comprehensive Reform Effectiveness - Guangdong is actively promoting the Shenzhen comprehensive reform pilot, with numerous innovative measures being replicated nationwide [4] - The province has issued the first provincial-level application scenario innovation policy document, facilitating over 1,300 innovative projects [4] - Guangdong is enhancing its investment mechanisms by attracting social capital for major projects and normalizing the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening economic system reforms to promote high-quality development, as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposed by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of Economic Reforms - Economic development driven by reform is a valuable experience formed through long-term practice, crucial for achieving rapid economic growth and long-term social stability [2]. - The integration of development and reform is essential, with reform providing strong momentum for development [2]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Major Measures - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven key areas for economic development, focusing on modernizing the industrial system, enhancing innovation capabilities, and promoting balanced development [5][6]. - Emphasis on building a strong domestic market and enhancing the internal circulation of the economy is highlighted as a strategic focus [7]. - The need for a high-level socialist market economy system is stressed, with a focus on the relationship between government and market roles [8]. - Expanding high-level openness and fostering international cooperation is essential for enhancing domestic economic resilience [9][10]. Group 3: Environmental and Regional Development - The plan includes measures for promoting green transformation and ecological civilization, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development [11]. - Coordinated urban and rural development is crucial for enhancing domestic circulation and achieving balanced regional growth [10][11]. Group 4: Implementation of Reforms - The article calls for a correct direction in implementing the reform measures, emphasizing the need for coordination and effective execution of the outlined tasks [12][13]. - Encouragement of innovative exploration in reform practices is necessary to address specific local challenges [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening economic reforms and promoting high-quality development as central themes for China's 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on overcoming systemic obstacles and enhancing innovation [2][5]. Group 1: Significance of Economic Reforms - Economic reforms are crucial for driving development, as highlighted by the integration of development and reform, which provides strong momentum for high-quality growth [3][4]. - The transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development has led to profound changes in development concepts, models, and goals [3][4]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Major Measures - The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines seven key areas for reform, including building a modern industrial system, enhancing innovation capabilities, and promoting balanced development [6][8]. - Emphasis is placed on strengthening the real economy and ensuring that technological innovations are effectively integrated into industries [7][8]. Group 3: Focus on Domestic Market and High-Level Opening - The plan stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating a new development pattern that enhances the internal circulation of the economy [9][11]. - It advocates for high-level opening-up to foster international cooperation and competitiveness, particularly in response to global economic challenges [11]. Group 4: Agricultural and Regional Development - The article highlights the need for coordinated urban-rural development and the modernization of agriculture to enhance domestic circulation [12]. - It calls for reforms that promote regional economic coordination and optimize spatial development [12]. Group 5: Green Transformation and Ecological Development - The plan outlines the necessity for a comprehensive green transformation of the economy, emphasizing ecological sustainability and the integration of environmental considerations into economic planning [13]. Group 6: Implementation of Reform Decisions - The article stresses the importance of adhering to the correct political direction and coordinating reform tasks effectively to achieve the goals set for the 15th Five-Year Plan [14][15]. - It highlights the need for innovative exploration and practical measures to ensure the effectiveness of reforms [15].