公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 | | | 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 16,275.26 304.37 15,970.89 304.37 14,974.48 1,300.78 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,989.59 43.05 8,946.54 43.05 9,571.70 -582.11 国内45港铁矿石到货量 2,756.40 155.00 2,601.40 155.00 2,268.40 488.00 全球铁矿石发运量 3,213.70 -463.42 3,677.12 -463.42 3,061.80 151.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 229.50 2.07 227.43 2.07 229.41 0.09 45港日均疏港量 323.27 -1.94 325.21 -1.94 324.25 -0.98 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 283.28 2.61 280.67 2.61 285.58 -2.30 主港铁矿成交周均值 99.50 18.82 80.68 18.82 111.72 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 多空博弈下矿价高位震荡运行 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，港存高位攀升，钢厂持续复产，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但盈利状况 未改善，且淡季钢市难以承接大幅提产，需求改善空间有限。与此同时，国内港口到货有所回升，且 后续存有增量空间，即便矿商发运和内矿生产收缩，矿石供应压力未退，关注后续变化。目前来看， 铁矿石供应偏高，而需求改善受限，矿石基本面并未改善，矿价继续承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏 暖与节前补库预期，多空因素博弈下矿价维持高位震荡运行态势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创 ...

12月以来，螺纹钢期现价格呈现低位震荡态势，主力合约在3030~3180元/吨区间波动，近期重回区间上 沿。现货价格同步跟随，但受下游需求进入淡季影响，跟涨力度有限。 短期利多因素发酵 近期螺纹钢期价重回震荡区间上沿，主要得益于三方面利多因素支撑：其一，政策预期再度升温，12 月"反内卷"交易逻辑持续强化，相关品种强势上涨，提振商品市场整体情绪，进而带动黑色金属板块低 位回升。其二，原料价格趋于稳定，其中铁矿石价格表现尤为强劲，从成本端助力钢价走势。其三，低 供应背景下，库存压力明显缓解。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 具体来看，一方面，短流程钢厂利润改善显著。据钢联统计，77家建材独立电弧炉钢厂中，亏损企业占 比仅14.05%。即期成本核算下，部分地区平电生产已实现盈利。利润改善叠加厂库压力不大，短 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report predicts that the iron ore 2605 contract will experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening, and the ore price is under pressure. Although short - term bullish factors support the high - level operation of the ore price, the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and caution should be exercised when the trading logic switches to the real - world situation [1][3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Demand side: Steel mills' production is weakening, their profitability has not improved, and the demand for ore is in a weak state, which continues to put pressure on the ore price. However, the low inventory in steel mills makes the pre - festival restocking expectation relatively strong [3] - Supply side: Both the arrival at domestic ports and the shipments from miners have decreased month - on - month but are still at a high level within the year. Overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the overall ore supply remains high [3]

澳大利亚矿业公司Genmin Limited近日宣布，已成功完成总额2570万澳元（约合1700万美元）的定向增 发融资，为其位于加蓬的Baniaka铁矿项目后续开发提供资金支持。该项目已确认矿石资源量约7.59亿 吨，规划初期产能500万吨/年，后续有望提升至至少1000万吨/年，公司预计2026年底前后实现商业化 生产。 12月19日当周，铁矿石港口库存录得16225.53万吨，较上一周增加114.06万吨，增加幅度达0.71%；最 近一个月，铁矿石港口库存累计增加490.68万吨，增加幅度为3.12%。 消息面 据统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总量为8723.95万吨，环比减110.25万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口矿日耗为 280.56万吨，环比减2.71万吨；库存消费比31.09天，环比减0.09天。 基本面方面，12月份以来全球铁矿发运延续平稳增加，主流矿澳洲同比基本持平，巴西矿贡献小幅增 量；非主流矿发运近一个半月持续处于高位，同比贡献较大增量，当前国内铁矿石供应宽松格局难以改 变。需求端，三季度至今国内终端用钢需求环比较快回落，近期难以看到显著好转，同时四季度以来地 产、基建和制造业用钢均出现下滑，中期 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 15,512.63 81.21 15,210.12 302.51 15,046.89 465.74 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,723.95 -107.25 8,942.48 -218.53 9,285.54 -561.59 国内45港铁矿石到货量 2,723.40 242.90 2,817.10 -93.70 2,297.20 426.20 全球铁矿石发运量 3,592.50 223.94 3,278.42 314.08 3,093.60 498.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 226.55 -2.65 234.68 -8.13 233.87 -7.32 45港日均疏港量 313.45 -5.74 331.58 -18.13 335.87 -22.42 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 280.56 -2.71 289.43 -8.87 289.77 -9.21 主港铁矿成交周均值 92.13 -4.71 103.72 -11.59 114.16 -22.03 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251219） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slightly upward bias respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price will continue to oscillate [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is operating weakly. Steel mill production is weakening in the off - season, leading to a continuous decline in ore demand and unchanged poor profitability. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, and miner shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, the ore supply remains high. Although short - term positive factors support the ore price at a relatively high level, the weakening demand and high supply result in a weak fundamental situation in the ore market, with limited upward momentum. The ore price will continue to oscillate, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slightly upward bias. The overall view is wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and continued ore price oscillation [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weak. Steel mill production in the off - season leads to falling ore demand and unchanged profitability. Port arrivals have increased, and miner shipments are at a high level. Although short - term positives support the price, the supply - demand imbalance makes the market fundamental weak and the upward drive limited. The ore price will oscillate, and steel performance should be watched [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level volatile operation. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "wide - range oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation of the iron ore market is weak and the price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias, with an overall view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weak and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is operating weakly. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, and the profitability of steel mills has not improved, so weak demand continues to put pressure on ore prices. Domestic port arrivals are falling, while overseas miners' shipments are rising, and both are still at relatively high levels within the year. Overseas ore supply is active, and although domestic ore supply is shrinking, there is still supply pressure. Currently, iron ore demand is continuously weakening while supply remains high, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, so the ore price is still prone to pressure. The relatively good news is that the structural contradiction in the spot market has not been resolved, and it is expected that the ore price will continue its high - level volatile operation, and the performance of steel products should be monitored [3].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 15,431.42 130.61 15,210.12 221.30 15,319.38 112.04 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,831.20 -153.53 8,942.48 -111.28 9,173.04 -341.84 国内45港铁矿石到货量 2,480.50 -218.80 2,817.10 -336.60 2,782.00 -301.50 全球铁矿石发运量 3,368.56 45.41 3,278.42 90.14 3,010.90 357.66 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 229.20 -3.10 234.68 -5.48 235.80 -6.60 45港日均疏港量 319.19 0.74 331.58 -12.39 326.98 -7.79 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 283.27 -1.80 289.43 -6.16 292.61 -9.34 主港铁矿成交周均值 99.15 -11.39 103.72 -4.57 109.98 -10.83 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251212） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, mainly due to short - term bullish support and high - level oscillation of ore prices [1] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is declining, and the profit situation has not improved. Although domestic port arrivals have decreased and overseas miners' shipments have increased, the supply pressure still exists. The spot structural contradiction and black arbitrage logic support the high - level operation of ore prices, but the poor fundamentals result in weak upward driving force, and the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation state, with attention paid to the performance of steel products [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, with a general view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is short - term bullish support leading to high - level oscillation of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is unfavorable. Steel mill production and ore consumption are weak, while the supply is at a relatively high level. Spot structural contradictions and arbitrage logic support high - level prices, but the weak fundamentals limit upward movement, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level, with the steel performance being a key factor to watch [2]