投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-30 市场情绪回暖，盘⾯偏强运⾏ 钢⼚复产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒仍存，需求端节前补库 ⽀撑矿价。焦炭⾸轮提涨落地，焦煤供应端存在扰动，盘⾯低位反 弹。淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂 ⽆，盘⾯跟随成本⾛强。玻纯跟随板块⾛强，但供需过剩继续限制盘 ⾯上⽅空间。 钢厂复产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力仍存，需求端节前补库 支撑矿价。焦炭首轮提涨落地，焦煤供应端存在扰动，盘面低位反 弹。淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂 无，盘面跟随成本走强。玻纯跟随板块走强，但供需过剩继续限制盘 面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增加，商 品情绪偏强，需求端节前补库支撑矿价，现实方面供需两端仍有待验 证。废钢供应平稳，日耗有季节性下降的预期，整体基本面将边际转 弱，但近期商品市场情绪升温，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应大幅提高可能性较低，而下游钢厂复产预 期仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有 限，现货提 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 2.22 万吨至 355.58 万吨（社 会库存周环比下降 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存增 0.61 万吨），总库存环比下降，库 存压力边际缓解，整体库存处于去库通道。 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 29 日热卷周产量环比上升 3.8 万吨至 309.21 万吨。 本周产量处于近几年中等偏上水平。反映钢厂在春节前仍然维持高生产节奏， 生产积极性提升。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 29 日周度表观消费量环比上升 1.45 万吨至 311.41 万 吨，表需本周微增，且在历年同期中属于较好水平。 热卷日报：增仓上行 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周四持仓量增仓 29468 手，成交量 434547 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3277 元，最高价 3313 元，日内 增仓上涨，日均线来看短期上坡 5 日均线，30 日均线，收于 3308 元/吨，上涨 26 元，涨幅 0.79%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, while the price of thermal coal shows a mixed trend with uncertain demand [1][3][5][8] - The supply and demand patterns of different black building materials vary, and factors such as production resumption, winter storage, and raw material replenishment have an impact on prices [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The inventory of construction steel decreased by 1.74% month - on - month, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.98% month - on - month. The spot trading of steel was average, and the price followed the futures price [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials have weakened slightly, with rapid production resumption of steel mills and delayed winter storage replenishment by downstream. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. Short - term prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated upward. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 19.70% month - on - month, and the transaction volume of forward spot decreased by 52.15% month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 5.9% month - on - month [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. The actual fundamentals are better than the statistical data. High prices stimulate supply release. If negotiations are concluded, there will be a supply shock. Short - term prices will fluctuate due to production resumption and winter storage replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated upward. The price of coal for furnace use rose slightly, and coking profits improved. After New Year's Day, the blast furnaces of steel mills resumed production, and the rigid demand increased slightly. The supply in the production area increased steadily, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal recovered rapidly [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of coke is relatively balanced. With the production resumption of steel mills, the actual demand has improved, but the purchasing willingness in the trading link is still low. The raw material replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. The supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price of coking coal has strong support below [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the price has been strong recently, but the downstream is resistant to high - priced coal, resulting in a mixed situation of price increases and decreases. At the port, the inventory has increased slightly, but it is still lower than last year. The import coal price has risen, but the price advantage of low - calorie Indonesian coal is weak [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The coal price has risen slightly, but the downstream demand has not met expectations. The future temperature is expected to rise, and there are differences in views. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are fluctuating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, with limited price volatility. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials will begin, and the game between reality and expectations will intensify. Plates are still restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. - The market sentiment for iron ore has improved, and prices are slightly fluctuating. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The price is at a high - level range in the short term but may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled [3]. - The molten iron output has slightly increased, and coking coal and coke prices are fluctuating widely. After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve, while the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term [5][6]. - The pit - mouth coal price is adjusting, and the supply in the production area is recovering. The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The national building material prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the national building material trading volume was 96,623 tons [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have no obvious supply - demand contradictions, maintaining low production, consumption, and inventory. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will start. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume increased significantly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Shandong ports rose slightly, with low trading volume and low procurement intention from steel mills [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The market gives a high valuation to the iron ore price, but it may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain a high - level range [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The coke market continued to be weak and stable, and the inventory pressure of upstream coke has been alleviated. The coking coal auction prices mostly continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coking coal decreased [5]. - Supply and demand logic: After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term. After the winter storage, the price may be further adjusted [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal mines are resuming production, and the pit - mouth coal price is adjusting. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the trading volume at ports is light. The import coal market is rising steadily [7]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good. After New Year's Day, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction and limited demand during the off - season, with steel prices oscillating. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. For rebar, production and demand both increase weekly, and inventory continues to decline. For hot - rolled coils, short - term centralized maintenance and production cuts lead to a slightly larger inventory decline. The iron ore market shows a double - decline pattern in supply and demand, with port inventory continuing to rise slightly. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose overall supply, and the inventory pressure of coke is not large, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and its inventory continued to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils accelerated slightly, which supported the price, with both futures and spot prices rising and the basis narrowing. The fundamentals of the steel market continued to improve, leading to a rebound in steel prices [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease. Rebar production from both blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased. Blast furnace production was 152.38 million tons (up 0.77% month - on - month and down 20.54% year - on - year), and electric furnace production was 29.31 million tons (up 6.35% month - on - month and up 8.76% year - on - year) [13][15][21]. - **开工率**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (down 0.20% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.123% (up 2.21% month - on - month and down 0.94% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded month - on - month. Rebar profit was +42 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 30 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 51 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: Rebar demand increased, while hot - rolled coil demand decreased. Rebar apparent consumption was 208.64 million tons (up 2.73% month - on - month and down 4.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 298.28 million tons (down 4.39% month - on - month and down 4.46% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar total inventory was 452.54 million tons (down 5.62% month - on - month and up 12.29% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory reduction expanded slightly, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 390.72 million tons (down 1.60% month - on - month and up 26.33% year - on - year) [36][41][45]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, commercial housing transactions increased month - on - month, while land transactions decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [46][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.32 (up 2.27% month - on - month and up 5.98% year - on - year). The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2814.7 million tons (down 5.09% month - on - month and up 9.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2646.7 million tons (down 2.80% month - on - month and up 23.76% year - on - year) [54][59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 226.55 million tons (down 2.65 million tons month - on - month and down 2.86 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 313.45 million tons (down 1.80% month - on - month and down 3.33% year - on - year) [60][64]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to reach new highs, while the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises decreased again. The inventory at 45 ports was 15512.63 million tons (up 0.53% month - on - month and up 4.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 million tons (down 1.25% month - on - month and down 8.86% year - on - year) [65][70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased slightly month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.62% (up 1.54% month - on - month and down 0.55% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 20.47 million tons (up 9.86% month - on - month and up 212% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke was +16 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (down 1.97% month - on - month and down 2.42% year - on - year) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory remained stable. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 881.37 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 0.97% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 286.17 million tons (down 6.94% month - on - month and down 4.03% year - on - year) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory continued to decline, while coking plant inventory increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 51.9 million tons (up 3.57% month - on - month and up 10.19% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coke was 175.65 million tons (down 3.06% month - on - month and up 5.08% year - on - year) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: The third round of price cuts for coke has started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continues. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1440 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month and down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year) [97][101]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed slightly, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils both narrowed slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to narrow, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly [103][107].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the continuation of the interest - rate cut cycle and the growth of green energy demand will support the silver price [3]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - For gold, considering the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions to avoid risks [10]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, the steel mills are gradually resuming production, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. - For glass, it is in an oscillatory upward trend, and a low - buying strategy can be maintained [18]. - For soybean oil, high inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish view in oscillation [22]. - For pulp, it is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but there is no improvement yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Shanghai Silver Futures - The price of Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 10,939 yuan/kg on September 29, with a single - day increase of 3.92%, reaching a phased high [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, and the market expects interest rate cuts in the next two meetings, reducing the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East lead to the continuous inflow of safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: In 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The significant increase in photovoltaic installed capacity drives the surge in industrial silver demand, and as 70% of silver is produced as a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc, production expansion is restricted [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a mid -阳线. The 2024 pension fund investment report shows stable operation, and the Politburo meeting aims to promote sustainable economic development. The pre - holiday market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold and silver are accelerating their upward movement, but due to the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. Near the National Day, steel mills start to replenish inventory. Technically, it closed with a negative line today but is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, suitable for high - selling and low - buying [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. A low - buying strategy can be maintained [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement is seen yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. Due to the poor air quality in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to 30th, but the specific production - limit plan is not clear. The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year due to concerns about the US labor market. Tangshan requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures from September 15th to 30th, and coking enterprises should extend the coking time by 30%. The production - limit is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is unclear. [2] 2. Supply Side - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production cuts, there is still a small increase in production in the short term. [3] 3. Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills is fast, and the daily average hot metal output last week quickly rebounded to over 2.4 million tons. The current profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. The finished products are in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, and the profit of steel mills has narrowed, which may limit the growth space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage. [3] 4. Market Outlook - The resumption of production on both the supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke is fast, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [3] 5. Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated. The increase in the cost side pushed the price center slightly higher, but Hegang's entry for inquiries may set the tone for the latest steel mill tenders, causing a slight market slowdown. Attention should be paid to Hegang's final quoted price [5]. - The resumption of production in steel mills after the military parade led to a recovery in hot metal production, supporting the demand for raw materials. The upward shift in the cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuated. The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5608 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 724,757 contracts traded and 217,964 contracts held (a decrease of 22,817 contracts week - on - week). The silicomanganese 2601 contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 729,357 contracts traded and 325,570 contracts held (an increase of 701 contracts week - on - week) [8]. - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country stopped falling. The aggregated quotation for 75B ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation range for silicomanganese in major regions was 5550 - 5800 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of - 30 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicomanganese production was 21.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.3%). The weekly operating rate was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from last week. Inner Mongolia had some factory furnace shutdowns for maintenance, while supply in Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou continued to expand [16][20]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production gradually recovered after the military parade restrictions, and the actual output of downstream hot metal increased week - on - week. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.18%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points from last week; the average daily hot metal output was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons week - on - week. However, the overall demand for silicomanganese weakened as the production of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons this week [22]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 61,440, a decrease of 1,420 week - on - week, equivalent to a stock of 307,200 tons, with a warehouse receipt destocking of 7,100 tons. The average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills in August was 14.98 days (+ 0.74 days). The inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises across the country was 166,800 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week - on - week [29][30][33]. - **Cost and Price**: Overseas manganese ore enterprises' quotations were stable, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. Affected by the firm port quotations of manganese ore and the increase in settlement electricity fees, the cost center shifted upward [36][51]. 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon production was 11.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons (- 1.8%). The weekly operating rate was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Production in Qinghai and Shaanxi decreased [55][60]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production gradually recovered after the military parade restrictions, and the actual output of downstream hot metal increased week - on - week. Non - steel demand also showed an upward trend. Ferrosilicon exports in July were 3.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [71]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 16,465, a decrease of 1,844 week - on - week, equivalent to a stock of 82,325 tons, with a warehouse receipt destocking of 9,220 tons. The average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in August was 14.67 days (+ 0.42 days). The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises across the country was 69,940 tons, an increase of 3,380 tons week - on - week [73][74][78]. - **Cost and Price**: The increase in the settlement electricity price led to an increase in ferrosilicon production costs [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is affected by the military parade's production restrictions. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not significantly improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to blast furnace resumption and demand performance [1]. - The iron ore supply has increased, and the demand (daily hot metal production) has decreased due to the military parade's production restrictions. Steel mills are resuming production, and it is expected that hot metal production will recover next week. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals, as well as iron ore shipments and hot metal changes [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke is becoming more abundant, and the market is in a state of shock. For coking coal, the market sentiment is bearish due to factors such as coking profit compression and weakening thermal coal prices. For coke, the fundamentals are weakening due to the decline in steel mill profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of coal over - production inspections in September and the demand for finished products in the peak season [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal is gradually recovering, and the price is oscillating. In the short term, the price is weakening, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of rebar was 3117 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil was 3313 yuan/ton. The spot steel transaction was good, with the national construction steel trading volume reaching 101,000 tons, a daily increase of 22.87%. Affected by the military parade's production restrictions in Hebei, the production of rolled plates has decreased significantly. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore oscillated upwards, with the main 2601 contract closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan Port increased slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 905,000 tons, a 4.75% increase from the previous day. The forward spot transaction volume was 1.748 million tons, a 74.80% increase. The supply has increased, the demand (hot metal production) has decreased due to production restrictions, and steel mills are resuming production. The port inventory has increased and is at a medium level [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. After the military parade, both supply and demand are in the resumption stage, and the market supply is becoming more abundant. The supply of coking coal in the production area will gradually recover, and the bearish sentiment is strong. The number of customs - cleared vehicles for imported Mongolian coal has increased, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 910 - 930 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The price of thermal coal in the production area is oscillating. The supply in the production area is gradually recovering, the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, and the price is oscillating weakly in the short term. The supply is abundant in the long term. The port market is weak, and the import market is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - No strategy provided [9].