1月7日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至825.5元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合 约报824.0元，涨幅3.58%。 铁矿石期货主力涨超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 产业基本面变化不大，五大材虽维持去库，但不断增高的港口库存也会抑制铁矿石价格高度。当前年底 政策预期叠加冬储行情叠加后期恶劣天气或影响发运，以及资金情绪板块轮动等均对价格有支撑，上下 游博弈仍较为剧烈，注意控制风险，轻仓操作为主。 申银万国期货：预计短期矿价延续震荡略偏强运行 铁矿价格延续上涨，发运小幅回升，主要是巴西发运增长，澳洲及非主流发运均有不同减量。同期国内 港口铁矿到货量有所下降，但因压港部分释放，铁矿港口库存仍略有增加。铁精粉产量变动不大，但仍 低于去年同期水平。高炉开工率小幅回升，铁水产量基本触底修复，钢厂铁矿库存也继续减少，因进口 矿日耗有所下降，钢厂进口矿库销比变动不大。钢厂对铁矿仍将维持按需采购，预计短期矿价延续震荡 略偏强运行。 东海期货：短期矿石预计以震荡偏强思路对待 有色、贵金属等品种大幅上涨带动铁矿价格走高。元旦假期前，铁水日产量及钢厂盈利占比小幅回升， 引发市场对于铁水产量见顶的预期。 ...

转自：期货日报 去年12月中旬以来，铁矿石期现价格呈现震荡上行态势，主力合约期价突破近5个月的震荡区间上沿， 且创阶段性新高。现货价格同样高位运行，普氏铁矿石价格指数报收于105.80美元／吨，港口现货价格 走势偏强。 港口成交放量 2025年12月中旬，铁矿石价格走势明显强于其他黑色品种，螺矿比与焦矿比持续处于年内低位。当前矿 价的主要支撑来自以下几个方面：一是现货市场结构性矛盾尚未缓解。尽管国内47港库存已突破1.67亿 吨，但部分主流交易品种供应受限，导致实际可用库存处于极低水平，库存总量对盘面的压制效应并未 完全显现。二是近期资源类商品整体走势偏强，尤其以铜、白银等表现最为突出。铁矿石作为黑色系中 金融属性最强的品种，其价格也在一定程度上受到资源板块上涨的情绪带动。三是跨品种套利逻辑形成 支撑。当前黑色系持仓结构仍呈现"多铁矿、空其他品种"的格局，进一步对矿价形成利好。四是钢厂补 库预期逐步兑现。钢厂厂内库存已连续两周回升，港口现货成交也同步放量，反映出铁矿石实际需求有 所改善。 需求改善受限 当前来看，上述利多因素依然存在，继续对矿价构成支撑。但铁矿石自身供需面整体偏弱，价格上行动 能仍有不足。20 ...

K 让衍生品 成为新的生产力 让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：李海蓉 黑色研究团队 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 2026 年商品年度报告 黑色商品 供给作为主变量，2026 年矿价或前高后低 摘 要 整体来看，2026 年全球铁矿石供需关系静态宽松，供应端放量 主要体现在非主流及几内亚矿山，需求端国内仍然面临下行压力， 海外将有小幅增加。港口库存继续积累，矿价或承压运行。预计价 格中枢将下移至 85-90 美金。节奏上，一、二季度在供给缩量、钢 企复产、冬储及开工预期下，价格相对偏强，三、四季度随着供应 端放量，叠加需求难有起色的情况下，矿价恐承压。 期现及月间套利方面，供应增加预期的兑现程度以及铁水产量 波动节奏的错配或带来套利机会。如 3 月份可关注跨期正套及期现 反套。 黑色商品研究 品种间套利，从估值和供应增量预期来看，若增量兑现，铁矿 ...

矿山利润高企 铁矿石作为重要工业原料，遵循"需求定方向、供应定弹性"的逻辑。尽管市场对铁矿石进入新一轮产能 扩张周期已形成共识，但中国铁矿石需求同样旺盛。据我的钢铁网统计，截至12月19日，今年铁水累计 产量同比增加约2450万吨，超出市场预期，按1.6的矿铁比测算，相应增加铁矿石需求约3920万吨。 从产业格局看，全球铁矿石供应呈典型寡头垄断特征，四大矿山控制近半产量和超过70%的贸易量。而 中国作为最大进口国，对外依存度超过80%，且来自四大矿山的进口占比超过70%。这种不对称的格局 使矿山在利润分配中占据主动地位。即便在行业下行阶段，矿山仍能维持较高利润，这也导致铁矿石价 格长期呈现易涨难跌特征。此外，80~90美元／吨的非主流矿山边际成本线，构成了铁矿石价格的明确 底部，从而限制其下跌空间。 钢厂补库提振 尽管全球矿山产能进入扩张周期，我国港口铁矿石库存总量攀升至历史高位，但铁矿石期货价格中枢却 持续高位运行，展现出较强韧性。市场普遍预期的供应压力未能有效传导至价格端，其核心原因在于长 期预期与短期现实的背离。因此，厘清支撑价格的关键因素，成为解读当前铁矿石市场格局的核心命 题。 库存水平偏低 尽管港 ...

尽管当前基本面偏弱，但过去一周受宏观利多预期提振，铁矿石价格迎来反弹。展望2026年一季度，国 内政策有望释放"开门红"效应，叠加南半球铁矿石供应或受天气因素扰动，预计短期内铁矿石价格将保 持相对坚挺。不过，从全年维度看，2026年供应过剩压力凸显，铁矿石价格中期仍面临下行压力。 当前铁矿石基本面呈现供增需减格局，港口库存持续累积。11月下旬以来，全球铁矿石发运量呈上升趋 势，12月12日当周发运量创年初以来新高，同比大幅增长17.3%。与此同时，需求端持续收缩：过去一 周，247家钢厂铁水日均产量环比下降1.16%，至226.55万吨，已连续5周减产，同比亦减少1.2%。钢厂 对进口铁矿石采购保持谨慎态度，库存环比下降1.2%，连续2周主动去库，同比减少8.9%。最新数据显 示，45个港口铁矿石库存环比增加0.5%，至15512.63万吨，连续4周累积，同比上升3.6%，较去年年底 增长4.4%。 需求方面，预计2026年我国粗钢总需求同比下降1.5%，降幅较往年收窄。具体来看：其一，房地产库 存仍处高位，去库周期尚未结束，预计2026年新开工面积与施工面积继续承压，相关粗钢消费同比或下 降10.4%；尽管 ...

12月17日，铁矿石现货青岛港（601298）61.5%PB粉，湿吨为787元/吨，基差9元/吨。 2025年12月18日铁矿石现 货价格表 分析观点： 南华期货（603093）研报：宏观事件落地，铁矿石交易逻辑重回基本面。供应端，四大矿山发运整体克 制，海岬型运费下跌，但钢厂库存处于低位，存在补库刚需，港口库存有望向钢厂转移。需求端，铁水 产量季节性下滑，但预计1月触底回升；螺纹、热卷产量超季节性下降，缓解了库存压力，但需求未见 明显亮点，整体仍处磨底阶段。估值上，焦煤产量高位、库存累积，价格持续下跌，为铁矿石价格提供 了下方支撑。综合来看，在发运克制、钢厂有补库需求、焦煤让利的背景下，铁矿石价格下方空间预计 有限。 【市场资讯】 12月17日：全国主港铁矿石成交83.1万吨，环比下跌18.05%；远期现货成交135万吨。 巴西阿马帕州政府（Amapá）近日宣布，计划重启阿马帕项目的铁矿生产，此次重启有望吸引高达2亿 美元投资。作为重启第一步，Cadence近期在伦敦证券交易所筹集600万美元，用于恢复阿兹特卡小型矿 山的运营。该工厂预计年产38万至40万吨铁精矿，并为后续扩大生产提供基础。 | 品种 | ...

12月11日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至754.5元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合约报 756.0元，跌幅1.43%。 正信期货：预计矿价仍有回调空间 铁矿石期货主力跌超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 南华期货：铁矿石下行空间有限 | 机构 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 正信期货 | 预计矿价仍有回调空间 | | 兴业期货 | 铁矿05合约前空仍可轻仓持有 | 供应端，全球发运累计同比增3250万吨，非主流矿贡献主要增量。港口库存继续累积，交割品资源短缺 情况缓解。需求端，铁水产量季节性下降，但钢厂利润回升后进一步减产动力不强。钢厂铁矿库存偏 低，节前补库刚需对价格形成支撑。宏观方面，重点关注美联储议息会议与国内经济工作会议可能带来 的预期差。短期价格或随宏观情绪波动。整体来看，预计铁矿价格下行后，下方买盘支撑有支撑，下行 空间有限。 南华期货（603093） 铁矿石下行空间有限 成材现货价格上涨，叠加供应增量有限预期，矿价小幅反弹。本周澳巴发运回落，到港继续下滑，近端 供应持续收紧；需求方面，铁水产量延续下滑，降幅有所扩大；库存来看，疏港量明显回落，港口库存 继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in China's iron ore imports for 2025, highlighting a "low first, high later" trajectory influenced by extreme weather and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - In the first half of 2025, China's iron ore imports are expected to decline due to extreme weather, with major mining companies experiencing a significant drop in import volumes [1]. - Starting from the third quarter, the shipping volumes from the four major mining companies are gradually returning to normal, leading to a continuous increase in iron ore imports from June to October 2025 [1]. - In September 2025, iron ore imports increased by 11.7% year-on-year, reaching a historical monthly high, while in October, imports of iron ore and its concentrates totaled 11.131 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite strong iron ore imports this year, stock levels at major Chinese ports are above seasonal averages but still below 2024 levels, indicating a complex market situation [1]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the declining profit margins of Chinese steel mills and low crude steel production are contributing to downward pressure on iron ore prices [1]. - A recent ban on certain supplies from BHP Group has temporarily supported prices, but its potential lifting could lead to an influx of products into the market, exacerbating downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The current rise in iron ore prices is attributed to speculative trading and capital market activities rather than genuine demand, according to the China Mineral Resources Research Institute [3]. - Accumulating port inventories and persistently weak actual demand are expected to exert substantial pressure on price increases, indicating that reliance on short-term speculation is insufficient to drive long-term price trends [3]. - Industry participants are advised to discern market signals rationally and remain cautious of prices deviating from actual supply and demand conditions to avoid following trends blindly [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is still some room for growth in iron ore consumption, but explosive growth is unlikely. The supply - demand of iron ore is expected to continue to shift towards looseness. In the case of a 0.1% increase in domestic crude steel consumption, the iron ore supply - demand surplus will exceed 20 million tons. Considering the finished product end, the surplus of iron elements is higher. If the annual average price in 2026 is calculated at $95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will further reduce the volume sent to China compared to this year, and the decline in production may be lower than this value, which will support iron ore prices and limit the downside space. Throughout the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate within a certain range, and the volatility may further decline [6]. - In 2025, the iron ore price showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to the 2024 average price of $109. The global iron ore supply was significantly lower than expected from January to October, leading to a reduction of 3.21 million tons in domestic port inventory. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly [7][8]. - In 2026, new global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs. Overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will grow by 0.1% and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. The supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Iron Ore Market Review - **Price Trend**: The iron ore price in 2025 showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to 2024 [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the iron ore main contract showed a volatile trend. Currently, it is still in a state of contango. After August, the spot performance was strong, and the futures fluctuated. Currently, the basis of PB powder main contract is at the median level in recent years [23]. - **Spread**: In the first half of 2025, the high - medium grade premium fluctuated downward. Subsequently, as steel mill profits were continuously compressed, the high - medium grade spread narrowed, and the medium - low grade spread widened [25]. 3.2 2025 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October 2025, overseas crude steel consumption increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 2.1% for the whole year. Overseas crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 0.5% for the whole year. From January to October, overseas total iron production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and iron ore consumption decreased by 3.68 million tons [28]. - **Domestic Demand**: As of October 2025, domestic crude steel production increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons for the whole year, an increase of 35.24 million tons. The consumption of scrap steel increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 3.7% for the whole year. Iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 47.28 million tons for the whole year [39]. - **Global Total Iron Production**: In 2025, global total iron production is expected to increase significantly. The proportion of China's total iron production in the global total iron production has rebounded [47]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to October 2025, domestic iron ore imports were 1.03 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.04 million tons. It is expected that the net import of domestic iron ore will increase by 1.3% or 15.36 million tons for the whole year [53]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From January to October, global iron ore consumption increased by 47.39 million tons, while supply increased by 3.01 million tons. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore in the second half of the year will shift from a tight pattern to a loose one [68]. 3.3 2026 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Outlook - **New Production Capacity**: In 2026, global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to expand, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs [10]. - **Overseas Consumption**: In 2026, overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%. Overseas iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 8.54 million tons [83]. - **Domestic Consumption**: In 2026, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 0.1%, and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. China's iron ore consumption is expected to increase by nearly 20.24 million tons, and imports are expected to increase by nearly 40.44 million tons [90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on the above conditions, the supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, but due to limited availability of some resources, structural contradictions still exist, providing some support for spot prices. - In November, there were no significant macro - events. Starting from December, the macro - impact is expected to gradually increase. - Overall, iron ore prices are expected to move within an oscillatory range [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The total global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 million tons, a decrease of 2.713 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.396 million tons, a decrease of 2.109 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.536 million tons, a decrease of 3.194 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.978 million tons, a decrease of 0.604 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 million tons, an increase of 5.696 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 million tons, an increase of 5.482 million tons [11][13]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11][13]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 159.0122 million tons, an increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spread**: The PB - Super Special powder price spread was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price spread was 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price spread was 147 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price spread was - 10.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.5 yuan/ton [17][19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feed ratio was 14.52%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.22%, a change of - 0.23 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.27%, a change of + 0.27 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2145 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [23][25]. - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a change of - 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder according to the Steel Union's data was - 8.18 yuan/wet ton [26][28]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 152.1012 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.5547 million tons. The pellet inventory was 302,350 tons, a change of + 91,800 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.28443 million tons, a change of + 360,000 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.97937 million tons, a change of + 163,300 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 63.0746 million tons, a change of + 0.8122 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 59.8703 million tons, a change of - 0.1998 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills this week was 8.94248 million tons, a change of - 0.05875 million tons from the previous week [32][35][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: The latest shipment volume from Australia to China through 19 ports was 15.27 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.851 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.931 million tons, a change of - 0.548 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.975 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.497 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipment volume to China was 4.445 million tons, a decrease of 1.045 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 5.462 million tons, a decrease of 1.254 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 4.002 million tons, a decrease of 0.184 million tons [47][50][53]. - **Arrival and Import**: The latest arrival volume at 45 ports was 28.171 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons [47][59]. - **Domestic Mines**: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.77%, a change of - 0.02 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 474,800 tons, a change of - 20,000 tons [47][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output in China was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3058 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0066 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 2.8943 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0225 million tons [67][70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of November 28, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 44.83 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.34% [75][78].