万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 价格偏弱，关注重要会议政策指引 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/02/28 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：2026年2月16日-2月22日全球铁矿石发运总量3320.9万吨，环比2月9日-2月15日增加631.0万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2713.3万吨， 环比增加598.4万吨。澳洲发运量2010.8万吨，环比增加540.2万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1709.1万吨，环比增加394.9万吨。巴西发运量 702.5万吨，环比增加58.2万吨。2026年2月16日-2月22日中国47港到港总量2321.1万吨，环比减少174.6万吨；中国45港到港总量2152.4万 吨，环比减少265.6万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量233.28万吨，环比增加2.79万吨；钢厂盈利率39.83%， ...

Core Viewpoint - After the recent price adjustment, iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level, and with the dual support of steel mills' phased resumption after the holiday and expectations of macro policy strengthening, further downside is limited. However, throughout the year, iron ore is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, with price levels likely to decline further [1][10]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since the end of January, iron ore prices have declined primarily due to two reasons: changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity easing after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman, and cautious raw material restocking by steel mills, with iron ore inventories at 247 steel mills down by 5.2968 million tons year-on-year [2]. - As of February 11, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, indicating limited further downside in the current price position [1][10]. Group 2: Production and Inventory Insights - Despite the impact of the Baosteel incident, the average daily pig iron output among 247 steel mills has remained between 2.27 million and 2.29 million tons this year, suggesting a potential for phased production increases as steel mills aim to meet annual production targets [3]. - With low iron ore inventories at steel mills, there is a high likelihood of increased restocking efforts once production resumes after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low supply season for iron ore, with historical data indicating a decrease in shipments by 9.5 to 10 million tons compared to the previous quarter. However, due to fewer extreme weather events this winter and a later Spring Festival, January's global iron ore shipments remained high [6]. - The global iron ore shipment volume was 25.353 million tons in the first week of February, down by 5.593 million tons week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand mismatch in the weeks following the holiday [7]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Context - Expectations for policy strengthening remain, with the Central Economic Work Conference prioritizing domestic demand expansion as a key economic task for 2026. The People's Bank of China has already implemented a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy rates among other measures, with further policy support anticipated around the National People's Congress [8]. - The resilience of exports and gradual recovery in manufacturing demand may provide a boost to iron ore demand [8]. Group 5: Valuation and Long-term Projections - Current iron ore spot prices are around 100 USD/ton, which is near a five-year low. The profit margin for long-process rebar has widened to 126 yuan/ton compared to iron ore import profits, indicating that both absolute and relative valuations are at a neutral to low level [9]. - In the medium to long term, iron ore is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, with supply increases primarily from emerging mines and major producers. It is projected that iron ore supply will increase by 40 to 45 million tons by 2026, with a significant contribution from the Simandou project [9].

Core Viewpoint - After the recent price adjustment, iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level, and with the expected recovery of steel mills and macro policy support, further downside is limited. However, the market is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, leading to a downward shift in price levels throughout the year [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since the end of January, iron ore prices have declined due to two main reasons: changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity, and cautious raw material restocking by steel mills, with iron ore inventories down by 5.2968 million tons year-on-year across 247 steel mills [2]. - As of February 11, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, indicating limited further downside in the current price position [1][2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Despite a recent incident affecting production, the average daily pig iron output across 247 steel mills has remained stable between 2.27 million and 2.29 million tons. Steel mills are likely to increase production in the traditional demand season of March-April to meet annual production targets [3]. - The first quarter is typically a supply off-season for iron ore, with historical data showing a decrease in shipments by 9.5 to 10 million tons compared to the previous quarter. However, high shipment levels were maintained in January due to fewer extreme weather events [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - There are expectations for further macroeconomic policy support, particularly in light of the emphasis on expanding domestic demand in upcoming economic meetings. The People's Bank of China has already implemented measures to lower structural monetary policy rates [6]. - The anticipated recovery in manufacturing demand, coupled with resilient export performance, is expected to boost iron ore demand [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Projections - Current iron ore prices are around 100 USD/ton, which is near a five-year low. The profit margins for steel mills have improved, indicating that iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level [7]. - In the medium to long term, the market is expected to transition into a phase of oversupply, with significant increases in supply projected from emerging mines and major producers. The expected increase in iron ore supply for 2026 is estimated to be between 40 to 45 million tons [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The inventory continues to rise, steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore runs smoothly. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, and steel mills mainly replenish inventory normally before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for ore will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. The reduction of port arrivals is limited according to the shipping schedule, domestic ore supply is stable, and combined with the high inventory, the supply pressure of ore remains. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has rebounded in shock. However, the supply pressure of ore remains under the high - inventory situation, and the ore demand is weak. The fundamentals of ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a volatile operation under the game of long - and short - term factors. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of steel mills [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,022.26, with a week - on - week increase of 255.73, a monthly increase of 1,051.37 compared with the end of last month, and a year - on - year increase of 2,019.30 compared with the same period (lunar calendar). 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,968.59, with a week - on - week increase of 579.77, a monthly increase of 1,022.05, and a year - on - year decrease of 105.49 [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,530.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 129.70, a monthly decrease of 71.40, and a year - on - year decrease of 304.30. The global iron ore shipment volume is 2,978.30, with a week - on - week increase of 48.50, a monthly decrease of 698.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 133.80 [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 227.98, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12, a monthly increase of 0.55, and a year - on - year increase of 3.61. The 45 - port average daily ore - clearing volume is 332.31, with a week - on - week increase of 21.58, a monthly increase of 7.10, and a year - on - year increase of 6.04. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 280.96, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.94, a monthly increase of 0.29, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 90.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.87, a monthly increase of 9.97, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Report 2026/1/28 [1] - Author: Kang Jian [1] -从业资格证号: F03088041 [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0019583 [1] - Research Contact: kangjian@zjtfqh.com [1] -审核: Li Wentao [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0015640 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply has stabilized and is rising, downstream profits are stable, hot metal production is fluctuating within a narrow range, downstream demand is fair, and the short - term supply - demand situation is loose. However, pre - holiday restocking demand remains, so iron ore may maintain a volatile trend. [4] - The monthly spread of iron ore may remain volatile in the short term. [5] Summary by Directory Supply - Global iron ore shipments have stabilized and slightly increased. Reuters data shows that on January 24, 2026, the 7 - day moving average of global iron ore shipments (excluding mainland China) was 4327 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 70.7%. Australian shipments were 2352 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 114.6%, and Brazilian shipments were 905.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.1% but a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. [24][29] - Except for India, non - mainstream shipments are 82% higher year - on - year. [33] - The total arrival volume has declined, but it is still higher year - on - year. The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 thousand tons last week. [52][101] - The total output of domestic iron ore continues to rise. [107] Demand - The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and hot metal production has slightly increased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 samples was 228.1 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the average daily hot metal production in January was about 228 thousand tons, indicating stable demand. [10][110] - The profits of finished steel products are stable, and the scrap - to - pig iron price difference in Tangshan is stable. [114] - The weekly output of the five major steel products has slightly increased, the profits of finished steel products are stable, the demand for rebar has slightly decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly decreased. [133] Inventory - Port inventory has increased. The 45 - port inventory increased by 212 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 66.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period. [152] - The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 127 thousand tons, the inventory in steel mills decreased by 2.53 thousand tons, and the inventory of floating cargoes + port inventory increased by 129.1 thousand tons. The available days of imported ore increased by 2 days to 23 days. [162] Price - Futures and spot prices have declined in a volatile manner, the basis is stable, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread has slightly decreased. [169] - The basis of the 05 contract is about 3%, and the basis is stable, with the basis rate slightly decreasing by 0.2%. [10] - The decline in the premium of Brazilian fines has slowed down, the premiums of mainstream low - to - medium - grade ores are stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores continues to increase slightly. [9][179][182] - Ocean freight has stabilized and rebounded, and the import profits of mainstream varieties are stable. [185][191] - The average value of the Platts Index in January was 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 782. [8][193] Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of iron ore show different trends over time. The total supply in 2026/1 was 12386 million tons, and the consumption was 12538 million tons, with a surplus of - 342 million tons. [195] - Due to the continuously high year - on - year hot metal production, the report slightly increased the demand forecast for iron ore. [195]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but shows high year - on - year growth, price highs are restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected that the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to mainly short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Current overseas ore shipments are in the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. Before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 19, the total global iron ore shipments were 29.898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1]. Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown super - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further upgrading of safety production supervision [1]. Inventory - Steel mill imports of iron ore inventory have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that as arrivals decline and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]. 4. Strategy - Interval operation and covered call options [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global iron ore market is entering a new growth cycle, with production expected to increase from 2.4 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons over the next five years, driven by new capacity from the Guinea Simandou project and a more relaxed supply-demand balance [1][8]. Group 1: Iron Ore Supply Dynamics - The Guinea Simandou project is projected to significantly contribute to global iron ore supply, with its production capacity expected to reach 200 million tons by 2030 [7][8]. - The supply structure is shifting towards a multi-polar model, with Australia, Brazil, and Africa becoming key players in iron ore supply [2][8]. - The production capacity of major mining companies is on the rise, with capital expenditures for Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG showing consistent growth [3][4][5]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Vale's capital expenditure is expected to rise from 25.84 billion yuan in 2019 to 47 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.7% [3]. - Rio Tinto's capital expenditure is projected to grow from 20.89 billion yuan in 2016 to 70.14 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% [4]. - FMG's capital expenditure is anticipated to increase from 2.39 billion yuan in 2016 to 27.05 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 30.9% [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Demand - Domestic iron ore production in China is expected to stabilize around 1 billion tons, influenced by stricter safety and environmental regulations [10][14]. - The steel industry in China is showing signs of recovery, with profits rebounding after a significant decline, which may lead to increased production [11][12]. - Emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, are experiencing robust steel demand due to ongoing infrastructure investments, contrasting with declining production in developed economies [13]. Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The iron ore price is expected to gradually decline as the market transitions from a phase of quantitative to qualitative changes in supply and demand [1][14]. - The average iron ore price is projected to stabilize around 750 yuan per ton, with fluctuations expected to increase compared to the previous two years [2][14].

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 825.5 yuan, with a current price of 824.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.58% [1] - Institutions have varying views on the future of iron ore prices, with East Wu Futures recommending light positions, citing stable fundamentals but high port inventories that may suppress price increases [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures expects short-term iron ore prices to continue fluctuating slightly higher, driven by increased shipments from Brazil and a slight recovery in domestic high furnace operating rates [3] Group 2 - Donghai Futures anticipates a short-term outlook of fluctuating prices, influenced by significant increases in other metals and a slight recovery in steel mill profitability, leading to improved demand for iron ore [3] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.634 million tons week-on-week, while port inventories continued to rise, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [3] - Key factors influencing iron ore prices include the pace of declining pig iron production and the timing of price bottoms, with expectations of a slightly stronger market in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a strong upward trend since mid-December, with both futures and spot prices reaching new highs, supported by various market factors [1][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - Iron ore futures prices have broken through a five-month resistance level, reaching a peak of 105.80 USD/ton in the Platts iron ore price index [1]. - The spot price remains strong, with port transaction volumes increasing significantly [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Despite some positive indicators, the overall demand for iron ore remains weak, with steel mills' profitability still low; only 38.10% of surveyed steel mills are currently profitable [3]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to drive a temporary increase in demand as steel mills prepare for inventory replenishment, typically increasing by about 16.3 million tons in the four weeks leading up to the holiday [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Domestic port arrivals of iron ore have increased, with a total of 28.247 million tons reported, while global shipments remain high despite a recent weekly decline [4]. - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.218 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure in the market [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market fundamentals for iron ore remain weak, with limited upward momentum in prices expected due to ongoing supply pressures and constrained demand [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].