上周澳巴发运小幅回升，到港环比下滑明显，近端供应明显收紧；需求方面，铁水产量止跌回升，但考 虑到利润水平，预计增产空间有限；库存来看，疏港量延续回升，港口库存受前期到货增加影响，仍在 累积，钢厂库存小幅增加，补库效果显现。综合来看，近期铁矿供需边际转好，上周五铁水产量与周四 五大材产量劈叉，需求超预期回升支撑矿价反弹，但考虑到淡季钢材的拖累影响，预计矿价仍有回调空 间。策略方面：激进投资者可关注轻仓做空思路。 机构 核心观点 正信期货 预计矿价仍有回调空间 中财期货 预计铁矿石价格预计震荡运行 东海期货 短期矿石预计以区间震荡思路对待 正信期货：预计矿价仍有回调空间 11月17日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至789.0元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合约报 788.5元，涨幅1.81%。 中财期货：预计铁矿石价格预计震荡运行 铁矿石期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 基本面整体供强需弱。供应端，发运到港量均有所回落，但整体仍处于较高位置。预计下期铁矿石发运 将有所回升，按照船期推算，预计下期铁矿石继续下降，铁矿石供给端整体较为宽松。需求端，利润持 续收窄，铁水小幅回升，检修有所增加 ...

机构观点汇总： 国都期货：消息面，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结 束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦政府"停摆"。基本面供需双弱，本期发运、到港量双降，铁水产量延续 下滑。钢厂在亏损背景下，全面追求最低成本的生产策略，中高品矿溢价走弱。短期来看，铁矿石价格 仍将承压，建议个人投资者不追高，前期空单继续持有，可将98-100美元作为第一下行目标；现货企业 继续采取低库存策略和按需补库模式。 11月14日据统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总量为9076.01万吨，环比增66.07万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口 矿日耗为292.63万吨，环比增3.93万吨；库存消费比31.02天，环比减0.19天。 11月13日，全国主港铁矿石成交105万吨，环比上涨6.28%；远期现货成交134.5万吨。 11月13日Mysteel进口铁矿石62%澳洲粉矿远期现货指数102.55，跌0.05，月均102.72；65%巴西粉矿远 期现货指数114.65，跌0.05，月均115.38;58%高铝粉矿远期现货指数92.55，涨0.1，月均92.33。（单 位：美元/干吨） 截至2025年11月14日当周，铁矿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.69%. Recently, the global iron ore shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan have been temporarily lifted, and the national hot metal output may fluctuate slightly next week. On the inventory side, the iron ore inventory in 47 ports continues the trend of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the iron ore price may fluctuate weakly in the near future [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - In the first three quarters of this year, China's steel production decreased year - on - year, and the apparent consumption continued to decline. The cumulative national crude steel production in the first three quarters was 7.46 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. It is expected that the annual production will still decline year - on - year, achieving the crude steel production control target [13]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and will study and refine specific plans. The US will suspend the implementation of the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends the implementation of relevant measures, China will also suspend the implementation of counter - measures against the US for one year [13][14]. - A total of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [14]. - The "Henan Province Iron and Steel Industry Quality Improvement and Upgrading Action Plan" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of steel production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the province by the end of 2025 and basically complete the ultra - low emission transformation of enterprises. By 2027, the industrial layout will be further optimized, and inefficient production capacity will be basically cleared [14]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633,000 tons, an increase of 1,111,000 tons from the previous month; the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month [18]. - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517,100 tons, an increase of 434,200 tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 2,819,800 tons, a decrease of 415,900 tons from the first half of the month [22]. 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - The PMI of the steel industry in October 2025 was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending the continuous two - month month - on - month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [30]. - Last week, the iron ore price continued to rise month - on - month. As of October 31, the 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.3 per ton, a month - on - month increase of $2.3 per ton, with a growth rate of 2.21%. The iron ore price was in the range of $105 - $107 per ton last week, and the average price in October was $104.8 per ton [30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - The total import iron ore inventory in 47 ports was 15,272,930 tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,440 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3,312,200 tons, an increase of 91,500 tons. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports was 14,542,480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 118,890 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3,201,600 tons, an increase of 75,100 tons; the number of ships at the port was 118, an increase of 11 [31]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 236,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,540 tons [31]. 3.5 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the upper pressure near 850 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: Long raw materials - short rebar arbitrage strategy. - Options: Wait and see [5][33].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 钢厂利润下滑，原料价格承压 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/10/18 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：最新一期全球铁矿石发运总量3207.5万吨，环比减少71.5万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2731.0万吨，环比减少94.9万吨。澳洲发运量 1916.3万吨，环比减少63.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1584.5万吨，环比减少76.7万吨。巴西发运量814.7万吨，环比减少31.3万吨。中 国47港到港总量3144.1万吨，环比增加368.3万吨；中国45港到港总量3045.8万吨，环比增加437.1万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量240.95万吨，环比上周减少0.59万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率90.33%，环比上周减少0.22个百分点；钢厂盈利率55.41%， 环比上周减少0.87个 ...

021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源：上期所、大商所网站，建信期货研究发展部 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月14日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its iron ore price forecast, with short-term price increases driven by price expectations and market sentiment rather than actual steel demand growth [1][2] - The most active iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reached 777.5 RMB per ton (approximately 108.70 USD), while the Singapore iron ore benchmark price slightly increased to 103.1 USD per ton [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its fourth-quarter iron ore price target from 90 USD to 95 USD, temporarily boosting investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term price increase, industry experts remain cautious, noting that actual demand from steel producers has not significantly rebounded [1][2] - Temporary environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, China, have led to a decline in steel output, suppressing real consumption demand for iron ore [1] - The lifting of production restrictions after September 4 is expected to provide new growth momentum for iron ore demand [1] Group 3 - The current price surge may quickly lose momentum unless steel production rebounds [2] - The Chinese steel industry is a key indicator for global commodity demand, and government interventions significantly impact the market [2] - Future iron ore price trends will depend on three key factors: the pace of China's economic recovery, changes in global construction demand, and new trends in energy and infrastructure spending [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., with stock code 001203 and bond code 127070 [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was held on August 21, 2025, via Tencent Meeting, with participation from various securities firms and funds [2]. - Key company representatives included Chairman Niu Guofeng, CFO Zou Qingli, and Secretary of the Board Lin Puzheng [2]. Group 3: Lithium Mining Progress - The company is progressing with the mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine, with the application currently under review by the Ministry of Natural Resources [2][5]. - The company plans to complete the first phase of the Hunan lithium mine project, with a capacity of 20,000 tons, by 2026 [5]. - The Sichuan Jiada lithium mine has an estimated lithium equivalent of 148.42 thousand tons, exceeding expectations, with drilling completed over 15,100 meters and a 95% discovery rate [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.972 billion CNY, with iron concentrate contributing 1.402 billion CNY and pellets 404 million CNY [4]. - Net profit for the same period was 406 million CNY, a decrease of 12.32% year-on-year, attributed to a 14.53% drop in the Platts index [4]. - The average selling price of iron concentrate was 827 CNY/ton, down 11.61% year-on-year, but still outperforming market benchmarks [4]. Group 5: Cost Management and Production - The company has successfully completed the pilot test of the sulfuric acid lithium extraction process, addressing key equipment and process issues [3][7]. - The production cost advantages from by-products like potassium sulfate and hydrofluoric acid are being evaluated, with potential revenue to offset production costs [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to remain stable, supported by national infrastructure projects, despite potential impacts from the commissioning of the Ximangdu iron mine [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 2.32%, and the volume and open interest expanded. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, with few real - world contradictions. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals have weakened again. There is a slight inventory build - up, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The strong raw materials boost market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment has stabilized. Coupled with the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. However, with supply being weak and demand being strong, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The expenditure on social security and employment increased by 9.2% year - on - year, science and technology expenditure increased by 9.1% year - on - year, education expenditure increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and health expenditure increased by 4.3% year - on - year. The national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. National tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - ins. The "Two New" policy system and working mechanism are continuously improving. The State Council has issued an action plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has issued support measures and expansion policies, and established an inter - ministerial joint meeting system [7]. - In the second quarter of 2025, FMG's iron ore production was 5.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual production in fiscal year 2025 reached 201 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The shipping volume in the second quarter was 5.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The annual shipping volume in fiscal year 2025 reached 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The shipping target for fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400 yuan, 3,360 yuan, and 3,463 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,470 yuan, 3,440 yuan, and 3,514 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,130 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,260 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 784 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.40 yuan, and from Brazil was 24.18 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.01 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.50 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,356 | 2.32 | 3,358 | 3,288 | 2,878,137 | 344,884 | 1,998,652 | 92,300 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,507 | 1.98 | 3,508 | 3,452 | 995,111 | 142,246 | 1,554,563 | 46,781 | | Iron Ore | - | 802.5 | - 1.11 | 815.5 | 790.0 | 533,058 | 134,404 | 528,991 | - 33,844 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [13][14][16]. - Charts on steel mill production conditions are also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has increased with a weekly output increase of 2.90 tons, and there is room for further increase. Demand has improved with a weekly apparent demand increase of 10.41 tons, mainly due to speculative demand. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. With low inventory and strong raw material cost support, the rebar price is expected to continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [35]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output has decreased by 3.65 tons, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 8.55 tons. Although high - frequency trading is good due to speculative demand, and downstream cold - rolled production is high, the narrowing internal - external price spread and potential tariff disturbances may lead to overseas demand risks. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [36]. - Iron Ore: The terminal consumption of iron ore has declined slightly, but the demand is still resilient due to the good profitability of steel mills. The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, and the short - term overseas supply is low. However, the shipping of overseas miners is increasing, and the domestic supply is also stable with a slight increase. With stable market sentiment and the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. It is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [37].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for iron ore shows mixed signals, with Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures declining while Singapore iron ore futures are rising, indicating potential volatility in pricing due to contrasting market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures have experienced a decline [1] - Singapore iron ore futures have seen an increase [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Mining shipments have reached record levels, suggesting strong supply [1] - Steel mill inventories are on the rise, indicating potential oversupply or reduced demand [1] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The contrasting trends in futures prices and inventory levels raise questions about the future trajectory of iron ore prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in iron ore production by major companies BHP and Rio Tinto in Q2 2025, raising questions about the future supply-demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the rising production levels from these iron ore giants may lead to changes in market pricing and overall supply-demand balance [1]