风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国12月失业率 4.4%，预期 4.5%，前值 4.6%。 ...

12月16日公布的数据显示，美国11月失业率从前值4.4%大幅升至4.6%，远超预期值4.4%。这反映出美 国的就业市场出现了加速恶化的情况。在这样的情况下，美联储在明年（2026年）1月继续降息的可能 性在增大。 同时公布的美国10月零售销售月率从前值0.1%降至0%，不及预期的0.1%。零售销售增长的停滞显露出 美国经济中最重要支柱消费的乏力。如果美国经济中的消费出现大幅下行的情况，那么美国经济也极有 可能出现疲软，甚至衰退。 美国11月非农就业人口为6.4万人，略高于预期值5万人，但是仍然处于低位。这也在一个侧面表明美国 的就业市场的不景气。 虽然美联储主席鲍威尔在不久前结束的12月议息会议后的记者招待会上表示，美联储未来可能更加关注 通货膨胀的反弹而非就业状况，不过如果美国的就业市场继续恶化，那么美联储责无旁贷地会继续降息 进程，甚至加速降息。 特朗普总统也一直催促美联储加快降息步伐，以便降低美国国债的融资成本。如果美国联邦基金利率水 平降至很低的水平，那么美国国债规模将迎来再一次的大幅膨胀，美国资本市场的泡沫就会再一次膨 胀。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国11月失业率 4.6%，预期 4.5%。 ...

美国11月新增非农就业人口6.4万人，高于5万人的预期；11月失业率录得4.6%，为2021年9月以来新高。8月份非农新增就业人数从-0.4万人修正至-2.6万人；9月从11.9万人修正至10.8万人，合计较修正前少3.3万人。#行情 现货黄金短线上行5美元，美元指数跌破98。 ...

摘要北京时间周二（12月16日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.270附近，现货黄金开盘于4305.12美元/ 盎司，目前交投于4304.36美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于969.35元/克附近，沪金主力交投于974.24元/克 附近。 【要闻速递】 北京时间周二（12月16日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.270附近，现货黄金开盘于4305.12美元/盎 司，目前交投于4304.36美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于969.35元/克附近，沪金主力交投于974.24元/克附 近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌0.12%，报98.276，现货黄金收涨0.11%，报4304.30美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货白银收涨3.28%，报64.04美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.26%，报 1784.60美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨5.73%，至1572.50美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月15日COMEX黄金库存1118.71吨，较前一交易日减少0.01吨；COMEX白银库存14138.42吨，较前一 交易日增加37.34吨。 12月15日SPDR黄金ETF持仓1051.69吨，较前一个交易日减少1 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.298, while spot silver opened at $64.07/oz and is currently around $63.55/oz, indicating a slight decline [1] - On December 15, the dollar index fell by 0.12% to close at 98.276, while spot silver rose by 3.28% to $64.04/oz, driven by a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields [1] - COMEX silver inventory increased by 37.34 tons to 14,138.42 tons on December 15, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 42.3 tons to 16,102.9 tons [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is considering a rate cut in December due to slowing employment and easing inflation risks, as indicated by various Fed officials [2] - The US delegation in Berlin is insisting on Ukraine ceding the Donbas region, with Ukraine expected to receive security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 [2] - The silver market experienced a strong rally after a brief decline, with the daily high reaching $64.16 and closing at $64.071, indicating bullish sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with some dissent among members regarding the decision, while also announcing the restart of reserve management purchases [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new interest rate is set at 3.75%, down from the previous 4.00% [2] - There were three dissenting votes during the meeting, with two members opposing the rate cut and one advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that 6 out of 19 officials do not support the rate cut, and the median path for 2026 remains unchanged [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 were reported at 236,000, higher than the expected 220,000 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit for September was revised to $59.3 billion, which is narrower than the expected $63.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since June 2020 [2] - China's CPI for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the M2 money supply growth was reported at 8%, below the market expectation of 8.2% [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Bank of England's interest rate decision on December 18, the European Central Bank's deposit rate announcement, and the U.S. November CPI and non-farm payroll data release on December 18 [3]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 11822, opening at 12065 and reporting a decrease of 3.23% to 11737, with a high of 12145 and a low of 11718, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - The latest silver futures analysis shows a strong bearish sentiment, with a recent low of 11912 and a closing price around 11760, suggesting a focus on downward movement, with resistance levels at 12000-12500 and support levels at 11700-11500 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate for September recorded at 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly above the forecast of 50,000 [2] - The report indicates that the labor market remains stable but slow, with companies hesitant to hire or lay off employees amid economic fluctuations caused by aggressive policy actions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant volatility last week, with gold and silver showing a pattern of four days of gains followed by one day of decline, indicating a struggle between bullish and bearish forces [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold reached a high of 4245 but fell to a low of 4031 on Friday, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a strong trend [3][5]. - The outlook for gold remains bullish for the year, with expectations that any significant declines will be temporary adjustments rather than a shift to a bearish trend [5]. - The trading range for gold this week is anticipated to be between 4030 and 4250, with a focus on potential rebounds from lower levels [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver also experienced fluctuations, peaking at 54.5 before dropping to 50, with a recommendation to maintain long positions [3][6]. - The target for silver this week is set at 53, with potential for a double top formation at 54.5 [6]. Domestic Gold Performance - Domestic gold contracts showed strong performance, with specific buy signals at 935 and 930, and a recommendation to exit positions at 970 and 965 to avoid losses from the Friday drop [6]. - Current targets for domestic gold are set at 955 for the week, maintaining a bullish outlook [6]. Domestic Silver Performance - Domestic silver contracts also saw significant gains, with buy signals at 46 and 47, and a peak at 54.5, followed by a recommendation to buy at lower levels [7]. - The target for domestic silver is set at 53, with a focus on maintaining long positions [7]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil experienced a drop to 58.1 but rebounded to close at 59.5, indicating a potential for a range-bound trading pattern [7]. - The support level is identified at 58, with resistance at 62, suggesting a strategy of trading within this range until a breakout occurs [7]. Domestic Fuel Oil Analysis - Domestic fuel oil showed little volatility, closing around 2600, with a recommendation to maintain existing long positions while monitoring for upward movement [8].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].