来源：市场资讯 QCP 分析指出，本周比特币短暂跌破 9 万美元，受美联储降息预期降温和 ETF 持续流出影响，市场情 绪承压。流动性下降进一步放大下行幅度。美联储主席鲍威尔重申 12 月降息"非板上钉钉"。市场关注 本周劳动力数据与领先指标，以判断比特币回调是短期仓位调整还是更广泛的风险偏好转向。 （来源：吴说） ...

Group 1: Global External Demand Indicators - The analysis indicates that global external demand may face adjustment pressure in Q4 2023, with a moderate recovery likely in the first half of 2024[1] - Among 20 leading indicators, 11 can predict next year's data, with 7 suggesting a rebound in external demand in Q1 or the entire first half of 2024[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shows a year-on-year increase of 20.2% as of October, indicating a potential rise in global cargo export volume[3][19] - The Goods Trade Barometer from WTO suggests an upward trend in global goods trade volume until July-August 2023, with a current index reading of 103.5, above the historical trend value of 100[4][25] Group 2: Industrial and Business Confidence Indicators - The G7 OECD Composite Leading Indicator predicts a fluctuation in China's exports at the beginning of Q4 2023, followed by a moderate recovery into early 2024[6][50] - JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders indicates a moderate recovery in global trade demand over the next 1-2 months, although there are signs of potential downward risks due to previous overperformance[7][56] - The PMI Future Output Expectations suggest a risk of decline in manufacturing output growth, as current production levels exceed expectations[7][59] Group 3: Financial Cycle Indicators - A global central bank interest rate cut tracker indicates a moderate recovery in external demand over the next nine months, particularly as the U.S. begins its rate cut cycle[8] - The Global Monetary Policy Tracking Index shows short-term adjustment pressure on external demand, with a stable outlook for the first half of 2024[8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Indicators - Global semiconductor sales growth is expected to remain resilient, with a mild decline projected for next year, indicating stable ICT demand[9] - The GlobalData forecast predicts a slight decline in global light vehicle sales growth for 2024, reflecting low-level fluctuations in automotive trade demand[9][63]

Group 1: High-Frequency Data Utilization - High-frequency tracking allows for timely monitoring of economic conditions and more accurate expectations management[11] - OECD categorizes macro data into Hard Data, Soft Data, and Financial Data, with a focus on weekly Hard Data for analysis[13] - High-frequency data can provide forward-looking guidance on economic trends, compensating for the lag in macro data releases[17] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The report highlights that PMI data is released with a 5-day lag, while economic data is typically delayed by 2.5 weeks, impacting timely decision-making[17] - The correlation between real GDP growth and real estate investment has weakened, indicating a shift in economic drivers[30] - Despite interest rate cuts, credit demand remains weak, with both household and corporate credit impulses showing low recovery rates[32] Group 3: Inventory and Production Cycles - The report notes that inventory cycle patterns have been disrupted by capacity cycles, leading to irregular inventory management[35] - The analysis of production signals indicates fluctuations in power generation and value-added output, complicating economic assessments[69] Group 4: Leading Indicators and Economic Forecasts - Leading indicators suggest nominal growth may peak in Q3 2025, with expectations for various sectors such as exports and infrastructure investment to stabilize[40] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a framework for leading indicators to better predict economic performance[25]

Group 1 - The final leading indicator for Japan in May is reported at 104.8, a decrease from the previous value of 105.3 [1]

Core Insights - Japan's leading indicator for May is reported at 105.3, slightly above the expected 105.2 and significantly higher than the previous value of 104.2 [1] Economic Indicators - The leading indicator's initial value of 105.3 indicates a positive outlook for the Japanese economy, suggesting potential growth [1] - The increase from the previous value of 104.2 to 105.3 represents a change of approximately 1.05%, indicating a strengthening economic sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's leading indicator for April has been finalized at 104.2, an increase from the previous value of 103.4 [1] Group 1 - The leading indicator reflects economic expectations and trends in Japan [1] - The increase from 103.4 to 104.2 indicates a positive shift in economic sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The preliminary leading indicator for Japan in April is reported at 103.4, which is below the expected value of 103.9 and significantly lower than the previous value of 108.1 [1]

Group 1 - The final value of Japan's leading indicator for March is 108.1, which is an increase from the preliminary value of 107.7 [1]

Group 1 - The final value of Japan's leading indicator for March is 108.1, revised from the initial value of 107.7 [1]

Group 1 - The leading indicator for Japan in March is reported at 107.7, which is above the expected value of 107.5 but below the previous value of 107.9 [1]