Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core View - Gold continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but two Fed officials voted against the decision. Powell stated that no decision has been made on the first rate cut in September as expected by the market, but "downside risks in the labor market are obvious." With the progress of trade negotiations, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold prices weakened continuously. Silver also declined against the backdrop of an overall correction in industrial products. After the US reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, risk aversion cooled, but there is still some uncertainty in China-US negotiations. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, but rates are expected to remain unchanged in July, and the market is speculating on a possible rate cut in September. Recent US economic data shows resilience, US CPI has rebounded, and the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, with subsequent impacts likely to gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill further boosts expectations of US fiscal deficits, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long-term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For Shanghai Gold 2510, the current price is 770.68, down 3.10 (-0.40%) from the previous close, with an open interest of 214,105 and trading volume of 206,379. For Shanghai Gold 2512, the current price is 772.76, down 3.00 (-0.39%), with an open interest of 115,693 and trading volume of 25,383. For Shanghai Silver 2510, the current price is 9,090.00, down 102.00 (-1.11%), with an open interest of 392,370 and trading volume of 689,866. For Shanghai Silver 2512, the current price is 9,110.00, down 103.00 (-1.12%), with an open interest of 210,377 and trading volume of 71,085 [2] Spot Market - The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 769.48, up 2.29 (0.30%); the previous closing price of London Gold was 758.13, down 9.39 (-1.22%); the previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 9,166.00, up 3.00 (0.03%); the previous closing price of London Silver was 37.10, down 1.10 (-2.87%) [2] Inventory - The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 33,462 kg, an increase of 2,199.00 kg from the previous value; the current value of the silver inventory is 1,208,094 kg, an increase of 3,228.00 kg. The current value of COMEX gold inventory is 38,514,461, an increase of 347,929.37; the current value of COMEX silver inventory is 504,338,309, an increase of 2,041,750 [2] Related Derivatives - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.9684, up 1.06% from the previous value; the S&P index is 6,362.9, down 0.12%; the US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.92%; Brent crude oil is 72.75, up 0.01%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2123, up 0.44%. The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton; the SLV Silver ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481; the net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2] Macroeconomic News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time early today, in line with expectations. Powell said it's too early to say whether the Fed will cut rates in September as the financial market expects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1. The US GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 2.5%, down from 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3%. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations but still far below last year's average [3][4]

Group 1 - The gap between non-farm payroll employment and ADP employment figures is 180,000, marking the highest level in three years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ADP employment report for June indicates a decrease in employment by 33,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000 jobs and a decline from the previous month's increase of 37,000 jobs [1] Group 1 - The actual employment change for June was -33,000 jobs [1] - The market expectation for job growth was 95,000 jobs [1] - The previous month's employment change was revised to an increase of 37,000 jobs [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. ADP employment report for June indicates a decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] Employment Data - The reduction of 33,000 jobs in June is the most significant drop recorded in the ADP employment figures since March 2023 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the ADP employment report for June indicates a decrease of 33,000 jobs, contrasting with the forecasted increase of 98,000 jobs and the previous increase of 37,000 jobs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. ADP employment figures for June are set to be released shortly, indicating potential shifts in the labor market and economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The upcoming ADP employment report is a key indicator for assessing job growth and economic health in the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for May indicates an increase of 37,000 jobs, which is significantly lower than the expected increase of 110,000 jobs and the previous month's increase of 62,000 jobs [1] Group 1 - The hiring pace in the U.S. reached its lowest level since March 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The ADP employment number for May recorded an increase of 37,000, marking the smallest growth since March 2023, while the market expectation was for an increase of 110,000 [1] Employment Data - The employment increase of 37,000 in May is significantly lower than the market forecast of 110,000 [1] - This figure represents the lowest growth in employment since March 2023, indicating a potential slowdown in job creation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the ADP employment figures in the United States led to a short-term increase in spot gold prices by $6, currently reported at $3353 per ounce [1] Group 1 - The ADP employment report is a significant economic indicator that can influence market sentiment and commodity prices [1] - The immediate reaction in the gold market suggests a correlation between employment data and investor behavior towards safe-haven assets like gold [1]

美国5月ADP就业人数3.7万人，预期11万人，前值6.2万人。 ...