来源：金十数据 败诉的影响 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯（Jose Torres）表示，失去关税工具将产生多重连锁反应。 美国最高法院可能于周五就特朗普任内实施的关税合法性作出裁决。这一决定预计不仅将对贸易政策产 生深远影响，还将波及美国财政状况。 虽然不能确定最高法院是否会就此案作出裁决，但法院已将周五定为发布判决的"决定日"，市场普遍推 测关税案将迎来结果。 裁决的核心将涉及两个问题：政府是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）条款征收这些关 税；如果该做法不被认可，美国是否必须向已缴纳关税的进口商进行退赔。 然而，最终判决也可能介于两者之间。 法院可以选择在IEEPA下授予有限权力，并仅要求有限退赔，同时对于如何处理这个华尔街密切关注、 颇为棘手的议题，还存在多种其他选择方案。 此外，即使白宫在此案中败诉，其仍有其他政策工具可用于实施关税，而无需援引该法案下的紧急权 力。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）本人周四表示，他预期会得到一个"混合型"裁决。 "毫无疑问的是，我们拥有继续征收大致同等水平关税的能力——就总收入而言，"贝森特在明尼阿波利 斯的一次公开露面中表示，"存 ...

The U.S. Supreme Court is set to issue rulings on Friday on cases related to the legality of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】 美国总统特朗普关税的"合法性之战"将见分晓。美国最高法院早前宣布，将于当地时间周五（1月9日） 对此案作出裁决。 最高法院九名大法官中，保守与自由派的比例为六比三。 当时首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨说，关税等税收一向是国会的核心权力，让总统的外交权力凌驾于国会的 基本权力之上，似乎会削弱行政、立法两权之间的制衡作用。特朗普第一任期内任命的保守派大法官尼 尔·戈萨奇表示，这将导致行政权持续扩张，国会权力逐渐丧失。 路透社1月7日援引美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）的数据称，倘若美国最高法院裁定特朗普依据《国际 紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税违法，联邦政府可能不得不向进口商退还超过1335亿美元的关 税。 当天，CBP发布了最新的统计更新数据，统计对象是自特朗普去年2月首次依据IEEPA加征关税以来的 相关进口商品。 1335亿美元的数字是截至12月14日的累计核定关税总额。其中，针对所有国家和地区的所有物品征收的 所谓"对等关税"总额为817.4亿美元，除此之外还有针对一些国家征收的芬太尼关税和针对巴西和印度 征收的惩罚性关税。 数据显示，美国针对墨西哥和加拿大征收的芬太尼关税，分别为 ...

【资讯导读】 ·世界银行：发展中国家面临巨额债务缺口利息支付压力较大 ·美国财长对关税合法性表示乐观 ·美国服务业PMI升至九个月新高 ·美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人 ·欧盟拟推《工业加速法》 提升关键产品本地制造比例 ·美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，前值从增加4.2万人修正为增加4.7万 人。 ·截至11月28日当周，美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率降至6.32%，同期购房指数上升，显示购房活动有所 回暖。 ·欧盟计划推出新的法规——《工业加速法》，要求汽车、电池等重要产品的"欧洲制造"本地含量达到 最高70%，并通过政府补贴等方式促进实现。 ·欧元区11月综合PMI终值上调至52.8，为过去30个月以来最高水平，主要由服务业增长驱动，显示出区 内经济复苏迹象。 ·澳大利亚第三季度GDP同比增长2.1%，环比增长0.4%，未达市场预期。 ·韩国第三季度实际GDP环比增长1.3%，同比增长1.8%，均超过预期。 【全球市场动态】 【市场资讯】 ·根据世界银行最新报告，在2022年至2024年间，发展中国家面临前所未有的债务偿付资金与新增融资 缺口，总额高达7410 ...

Core Viewpoint - Costco has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. federal government, claiming that the imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is illegal and is seeking a full refund of the tariffs paid [1][3]. Group 1: Company Actions - Costco's Chief Financial Officer, Gary Millerchip, revealed that approximately one-third of the products sold in the U.S. are imported, with about two-thirds being non-food items, and around 8% of total sales coming from products imported from China [3]. - Prior to Costco's lawsuit, several companies, including Kawasaki and Bumble Bee Foods, had already initiated similar legal actions against the government, indicating a growing trend among businesses to challenge tariffs [3][4]. - The lawsuit by Costco is particularly notable as it marks the first time a major corporation has publicly taken such action, contrasting with smaller companies that have previously filed lawsuits [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - In response to tariff impacts, Costco has adjusted its pricing strategies, with some non-essential imported items, like flowers, experiencing price increases, while essential items, such as fresh fruits, have not seen price hikes [5]. - Kawasaki's CEO acknowledged that tariffs might necessitate a price increase of approximately 17% on high-end motorcycles sold in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Legal Context - The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of the federal government's authority to impose tariffs on multiple goods, with both liberal and conservative justices questioning the president's power to levy tariffs without congressional approval [6]. - Even if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, companies like Costco and Kawasaki have expressed that this may not guarantee the return of previously paid tariffs, necessitating legal action against the government [6]. Group 4: Government's Position - The U.S. government maintains that tariffs are essential for addressing long-term economic and national security challenges, despite the negative impact on small businesses [7]. - The Supreme Court has not yet announced when it will rule on the legality of the tariffs, but if deemed illegal, the government could face significant financial repercussions [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could lead to significant financial implications, including potential refunds of tariffs amounting to $750 billion to $1 trillion if deemed illegal [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Implications - The Supreme Court is expected to expedite the ruling process, with predictions of a decision as early as December this year or January next year [1]. - If the court rules against the Trump administration, over $100 billion in tariffs may need to be refunded, along with potential interest and compensation claims from businesses [1][5]. Group 2: Perspectives from Importers - Importers, such as DeerStags, believe that the refund process will not be chaotic, as customs documentation clearly outlines the tariffs paid on imported goods [2]. - The CEO of Greenbar Distillery expressed confidence in the ease of reclaiming tariffs due to clear documentation, although there are concerns about the current administration's handling of tariff issues [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Business Adjustments - U.S. businesses are facing challenges such as reduced exports and potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries, with estimates suggesting a $223 billion impact on U.S. exports and a loss of 141,000 jobs [4]. - The unpredictability of tariff changes has created significant uncertainty for small businesses, with over 40 modifications to tariff laws in a single year [6]. Group 4: Refund Process and Administrative Challenges - The refund process for tariffs deemed illegal is expected to be straightforward, similar to past experiences with the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) refunds [6]. - However, logistical challenges may arise due to a shortage of experienced personnel in customs brokerage, complicating the handling of increased refund claims [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's warning about a potential economic disaster if he loses a legal battle over comprehensive tariffs highlights the stakes involved, with implications for over $2 trillion in tariff revenue and investment [1][3]. Group 1: Legal and Economic Implications - The "trillion-dollar refund crisis" described by Trump is seen as a tactic to instill fear, framing a legal issue as a national economic crisis [3][5]. - Trump's actions are perceived as an overreach of executive power, testing the limits of the U.S. constitutional system [3][7]. - The Supreme Court faces a dilemma: ruling against Trump could lead to a financial disaster due to the need to refund over $100 billion in taxes, while ruling in favor could set a precedent for future presidential power expansion [9][11]. Group 2: Political Strategy - Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 to low- and middle-income Americans is a strategy to gain public support for his controversial legal stance [7]. - The potential Supreme Court ruling not only affects Trump's authority but also impacts the expectations of voters who anticipate financial benefits [7][9]. - The case represents a unique confrontation between presidential power and judicial authority, differing from historical precedents due to Trump's method of expanding power through reinterpretation of existing laws [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential legal and financial repercussions of the U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming decision regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to significant compensation claims from international investors [1][3][19]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The focus of the Supreme Court case is whether President Trump abused the "national security" justification for imposing tariffs, which could redefine the boundaries of presidential power [3][8]. - If the tariffs are deemed illegal, it could invalidate numerous investment agreements made under duress, potentially leading to claims for compensation from affected countries [4][19]. - The case is not initiated by the Democrats but by various industry associations that argue the tariffs have led to increased costs and reduced orders, highlighting a shift in support from Trump to legal opposition [7][21]. Group 2: Financial Risks - Trump has suggested that the potential compensation claims could amount to $2 trillion, a figure he uses to create panic regarding the court's decision [1][19]. - The U.S. Treasury is reportedly assessing the financial implications of a ruling against the tariffs, including the possibility of initiating a refund mechanism, raising questions about funding sources [17][19]. - The risk of a compensation wave from international investors is significant, as many entered the U.S. market based on the aggressive trade policies of the Trump administration [19][21]. Group 3: Political Consequences - The outcome of the Supreme Court's decision could serve as a critical juncture for U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the use of national security as a rationale for trade actions [26]. - The article suggests that if the court rules against the tariffs, it may undermine the legitimacy of Trump's trade strategies and affect future negotiations with other countries [16][26]. - The legal battle reflects broader challenges to the U.S. constitutional order and the balance of power between the presidency and the judiciary [8][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Market Performance - On November 5, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 225.76 points, or 0.48%, to 47,311.00 points; the Nasdaq increased by 151.16 points, or 0.65%, to 23,499.80 points; and the S&P 500 rose by 24.74 points, or 0.37%, to 6,796.29 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Google rising over 2% to reach a record closing high, Tesla up over 4%, and Intel increasing by over 3%. Facebook rose over 1%, while Microsoft fell by over 1% and Nvidia dropped nearly 2% at the close [1] Stock Performance - Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $195.19, down 1.76% year-to-date, with a market cap of $474.36 billion [2] - Apple (AAPL) closed at $270.07, up 0.01% year-to-date, with a market cap of $399.17 billion [2] - Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $506.93, down 1.44% year-to-date, with a market cap of $376.94 billion [2] - Google (GOOG) closed at $284.75, up 2.41% year-to-date, with a market cap of $343.89 billion [2] - Amazon (AMZN) closed at $250.20, up 0.35% year-to-date, with a market cap of $267.47 billion [2] - Tesla (TSLA) closed at $462.07, up 4.01% year-to-date, with a market cap of $153.74 billion [2] International Market Trends - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.17%, with Pinduoduo up 1.8%, JD up 0.6%, NetEase up 0.5%, Alibaba up 0.3%, and Baidu down 1.3% [2] - Alibaba (BABA) closed at $164.81, up 0.31% year-to-date, with a market cap of $39.32 billion [3] - NetEase (NTES) closed at $139.09, up 0.51% year-to-date, with a market cap of $8.81 billion [3] - JD Group (JD) closed at $32.04, up 0.69% year-to-date, with a market cap of $5.11 billion [3] - Baidu (BIDU) closed at $123.31, down 1.34% year-to-date, with a market cap of $4.24 billion [3] Commodity Prices - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil near-month contract falling by 1.59% to $59.60 per barrel, and Brent crude oil near-month contract down 1.43% to $63.52 per barrel [5] - Gold prices rebounded due to risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery rising by 0.83% to $3,980.30 per ounce [6] Economic Indicators - The ADP private employment data exceeded expectations, with 42,000 jobs added in October, surpassing the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 22,000 jobs [7] - The ISM services economic reading also came in stronger than expected, indicating a positive trend in the employment market [7] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested that the current interest rate policy may be too restrictive and that further rate cuts are reasonable [7]