期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观月报 人民币兑美元汇率创新高 上海公布楼市新政 20260301 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：黎照锋，从业资格号：F0210135,交易咨询号：Z0000088 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 春节假期过后，外汇市场迎来显著波动，美元指数持续承压下行，人民币对美元汇率延续2025年12月以来的偏强走势，呈 现单边拉升态势。2月26日上午，人民币汇率迎来直线上涨，离岸、在岸 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Data - The January CPI is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, influenced by rising pork prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] - The January PPI is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year, with the factory price index rising to 50.6% and the main raw material purchase price index increasing to 56.1% [2] - Future projections indicate that the CPI for February and March will be 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, while the PPI is expected to be -1.4% and -1.2% for the same months [2] Group 2: Financial Data - January's new RMB loans are anticipated to be 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.2% [3] - The social financing scale for January is expected to be 6.9 trillion yuan, down by approximately 98 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.1% [3] - M2 growth rate is projected to remain steady at 8.5%, while M1 is expected to decline to 2.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [3] Group 3: New Stock Issuance - A new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be issued on February 9, with a total of 18.7934 million shares offered at a price of 16.17 yuan per share [4] - The company specializes in automotive lighting systems and electronic control systems, with products including LED light modules and energy management systems [4] - The funds raised will be used for projects related to intelligent LED modules and charging distribution systems [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission of China is focusing on high-quality development of state-owned enterprises by 2025 [1] - The 19th Asian Financial Forum is scheduled to take place in Hong Kong [1] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will hold the "Star Computing and Intelligent Connection" conference in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy for December [2] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision [2] - Major companies such as ASML and Starbucks are set to release their financial reports [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision [2] - The U.S. core PCE price index for December will be released [2] - The 5th ASEAN Rail Transit International Summit will be held in Malaysia [2] Group 4 - New stock subscriptions for Linping Development and Electric are scheduled [2] - Major companies including Apple and Western Digital will release their financial reports [2] - China's PMI for January will be published [2] Group 5 - OPEC+ and eight oil-producing countries will discuss oil production policies [2] - The World Summit of Leading Scientists will take place in Dubai, UAE [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Macro Weekly Report: Moderate Recovery in Prices and Continuous Gold Purchases by the Central Bank" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, China's CPI showed a moderate increase, with an annual CPI remaining flat compared to the previous year. The PPI decreased in 2025 but showed signs of improvement in December. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [8][11][251] - The "Two New" policies (equipment renewal + consumer goods trade - in) and housing - related policies were introduced in 2026, which are expected to have an impact on the market, especially in the consumer and real estate sectors [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates showed fluctuations from 2023 to 2025. Different industries had different growth trends, with industries like information technology and finance showing relatively stable growth, while the real estate industry had negative growth in some periods [17] 3.2 Industry 3.2.1 Industrial Growth - The growth of the industrial sector was diverse. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing had relatively high growth rates, while others like coal mining and textile had more moderate or negative growth in certain months [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Industrial Output - Output of various industrial products, including energy, raw materials, and finished products, showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil and steel had fluctuations, and the output of new energy vehicles increased [35] 3.2.3 Industrial Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, China's total electricity consumption reached 8356 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to have an average annual growth rate of 4.2% - 5.6% [42] 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries like electronics and power showing growth and others like coal mining showing a decline [46][50] 3.2.5 Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the finished - goods inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The inventory of the mining industry decreased, while that of the mid - and downstream manufacturing industries remained stable [57] 3.3 Price Index 3.3.1 CPI - In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices had a significant impact on CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits driving the increase, while pork prices had a downward effect [64] 3.3.2 PPI - In December 2025, the national PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. Production materials prices had a greater impact on the overall PPI decline [73] 3.3.3 Housing Prices - In November 2025, new - home and second - hand home prices in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities generally showed a downward trend year - on - year, with different degrees of decline [83][88] 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment 3.4.1 Import and Export Trade - In November 2025, China's total import and export value was $520.63 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [97] 3.4.2 Key Commodity Exports and Imports - The exports and imports of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and high - tech products showed different trends. For example, the export of high - tech products like electric vehicles increased [105][106] 3.4.3 Foreign Investment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Investment in different industries had different trends, with the secondary industry showing growth and the tertiary industry showing a decline [120] 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed fluctuations. The retail sales of different consumer goods categories also had different performance [163][170] 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers showed different trends in different transportation modes. For example, the railway and civil aviation transportation had different growth rates in passenger volume [173][178] 3.8 Banking and Currency 3.8.1 Social Financing - The new social financing scale and its components showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different financing methods such as RMB loans, government bonds, and corporate bonds had different growth trends [188] 3.8.2 Monetary Liquidity - In October 2025, the growth rates of M1 and M2 decreased. The M2 - M1 scissors gap widened slightly, and the money activation trend slowed down [204] 3.8.3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate remained basically stable against a basket of currencies [213][231] 3.9 Fiscal and Employment 3.9.1 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Fiscal revenue and expenditure data showed different trends in different months. Tax revenue and non - tax revenue, as well as different expenditure items such as infrastructure and people's livelihood, had different growth rates [239][240] 3.9.2 Employment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.10 Business Climate Survey 3.10.1 Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different countries and regions had different manufacturing climate situations [248] 3.10.2 China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded. Different industries within the non - manufacturing sector had different degrees of recovery [251][259] 3.11 US Macroeconomy 3.11.1 US GDP - The US real GDP had different growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025, with private consumption, investment, and net exports having different impacts on GDP growth [266] 3.11.2 US Employment - The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data showed the employment situation in the United States [269] 3.11.3 US Treasury Yields - The yields of different - term US Treasury bonds showed different trends, and the yield curve inversion situation also changed [274] 3.11.4 US Retail Sales - The US retail and food service sales had different growth rates from 2024 to 2025, with different categories of goods having different performance [277] 3.11.5 Federal Reserve's Assets and Liabilities - The Federal Reserve's asset structure and federal funds rate, as well as the changes in the reverse - repurchase amount on the liability side, were presented [278][281]

Group 1 - China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves data for December 2025 will be released on January 7 at 16:00 [1] - The Eurozone's preliminary CPI for December 2025 is expected to be 2.0%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.1% [1] - The Eurozone's core harmonized CPI for December 2025 is expected to remain stable at 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment change for the US in December 2025 is anticipated to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, a recovery from the previous decrease of 32,000 jobs [2] - If the ADP employment figures exceed expectations, it may positively impact the prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil [2] Group 3 - The Eurozone's unemployment rate for November 2025 is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4% [2] Group 4 - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, 2025, are projected to be 195,000, slightly down from 199,000 [3] - A lower than expected jobless claims figure may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices [3] Group 5 - China's CPI for December 2025 is expected to grow by 0.90%, up from the previous 0.70%, while the PPI is expected to decline by 2.05%, a slight improvement from the previous decline of 2.20% [4] - A higher CPI and a lower PPI could positively influence industrial product futures while potentially suppressing stock index and government bond futures [4] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted increase of 53,000 jobs, down from 64,000 [5] - The unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.5% from 4.6%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - A lower non-farm payroll figure could reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 [5] Group 7 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2026 from the University of Michigan is expected to be 53.2, slightly up from 52.9 [5] - A higher consumer confidence index may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices while potentially suppressing precious metals prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. employment indicators are stabilizing at low levels, with various metrics showing signs of steadiness in the labor market [2]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - Multiple economic data points from the U.S. exceeded expectations, including Q3 GDP growth rate, personal consumption, industrial output growth for November, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December. However, consumer confidence and durable goods orders growth fell short of expectations [4][18]. - In the Eurozone, Spain's November PPI decreased compared to the previous value, while Italy's November PPI increased [5][18]. - Japan's inflation and industrial output were below expectations [5][18]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December, scheduled for release on January 2, and the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for December, also set for January 2 [6][20]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index showed a slight rebound, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week ending December 20, compared to 2.31% the previous week [7][22]. - Germany's economic activity index also trended upward, reaching 0.14% for the week ending December 21 [7][22]. Group 4: Demand - U.S. retail sales growth, as measured by the Redbook index, increased year-on-year to 7.2% for the week ending December 19, up from 6.2% the previous week [8][28]. - Mortgage rates in the U.S. remained stable, with a slight decline in mortgage applications [9][30]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment figures showed stabilization at low levels, with approximately 46,000 new jobs added in the four weeks ending December 9, down from 70,000 the previous week [9][35]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, better than expected, while continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, exceeding expectations [10][38]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 104.66 as of December 12, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week [11][41]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week as of December 26, following a decline of 1.1% the previous week [12][46]. - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.72 per gallon for the week ending December 22, down 1.9% from the previous week [12][46]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved, while U.S. financial conditions remained stable at high levels [13][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.1 pips, improving from -25.8 pips the previous week [13][51]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds remained stable at 265.3 basis points as of December 26 [13][54]. - U.S. and Japanese long-term government bond spreads remained stable, with the 10-year U.S.-Japan bond spread at 214.1 basis points [13][57]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of December 24, cumulative federal spending in the U.S. for the year was approximately $7.66 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [15][62].

Consumption - Domestic demand is recovering, with service consumption potential being significant, as evidenced by high visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland and ongoing winter tourism demand in Hainan[3] - Automotive sales show a slight decline, with retail and wholesale volumes at near-average levels for recent years[6] - Food and beverage prices are rising due to pre-holiday stocking, with agricultural product wholesale prices reaching recent highs[6] Investment - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction area declines narrowing from 33.7% to 23.4% year-on-year[18] - Infrastructure investment is supported by improved fiscal spending, although November's spending remains below last year's levels[18] - Land transaction area has seasonally increased, but the land premium rate has dropped to 1.8%, indicating ongoing price competition[18] Trade and Export - Port operations are showing marginal improvement, with an increase in the number of outbound vessels compared to the previous week[24] - Domestic export freight rates have risen by 0.6%, with Ningbo and Shanghai seeing increases of 3.2% and 3.1% respectively[24] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has dropped by 12.9% due to excess shipping capacity and seasonal factors affecting international trade[24] Production - Production rates are showing divergence across sectors, with high operating rates in formaldehyde and lithium iron phosphate, while polyester and lithium battery demand support production[26] - Steel and photovoltaic industries are experiencing mixed performance, with upstream and downstream sectors showing different trends[26] Prices and Inflation - Industrial product prices are declining, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing structural differentiation in price movements across categories[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline, with coal prices dropping and Brent oil prices also decreasing, reflecting weak winter demand[42] Liquidity - The Renminbi continues to strengthen, with the exchange rate against the US dollar improving from 7.0554 to 7.0410[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.83%[47]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October 2025 increased by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in economic conditions despite a previous decline of 0.3% in September [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the largest increase since March 2024 and suggesting a recovery in industrial and service consumption [1] - The improvement in CPI reflects a stabilization in consumer spending and may positively impact employment in the service sector, addressing key economic challenges [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but showed a narrowing decline compared to September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year [2] - The narrowing of the PPI decline and its month-on-month increase may signal the end of the current downtrend, potentially enhancing corporate profitability and production enthusiasm [2] - A positive shift in PPI could lead to a stronger upward movement in CPI and an improvement in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), fostering optimistic investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - The positive changes in price indices in October may have seasonal factors, and one month of data is insufficient for trend analysis, indicating that demand and production recovery is still in its early stages [3] - The improvement in price conditions provides room for fiscal and monetary policy actions in the last two months of the year, suggesting a likely enhancement in market confidence and economic conditions [3] - The stock market's recent upward trend, hovering around 4000 points, is attributed to improved liquidity, but sustainable growth will depend on corporate earnings recovery alongside capital inflows [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently due to better - than - expected US October manufacturing PMI and employment market data, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility and wait for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. With the restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, the top of interest rates and the bottom of bond futures are more solid. The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals [3]. - In the context of tight supply of gold and silver, the buying power has increased, driving the prices of precious metals to rise strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: After the release of the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. There may be short - term narrow - range corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risk. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bullish spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term capital market is tightened, but the bond market sentiment is positive. In the unilateral strategy, investors are advised to buy on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to buy gold below $4100. For silver, call options with a strike price below the market price can be bought [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the January 2026 contract, the supply of iron elements is loose. It is recommended to hold a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage position and wait and see on a single - side basis [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments and arrivals have decreased significantly, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has dropped sharply. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price at the origin is running strongly, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1250 - 1350 [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking enterprises have started the fourth round of price increases, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to buy coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850 [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound. The support level of the main contract is around 84000, and the resistance level is around 86500 [3]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as aluminum (21000 - 21800), zinc (22300 - 23000), etc. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon and Carbonate Lithium**: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000, and carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6800 in the short term, and PTA is expected to oscillate between 4300 - 4800. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own trading suggestions, such as short - fiber (short on rallies), ethanol (hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not less than 4100), etc. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and palm oil is in a weak operation with a support level at 8600 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage position can be held. For eggs, inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - **Fruits and Others**: Apples may hit the previous high of 9300, and red dates are in a low - level oscillation [3].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to September and slightly above seasonal levels [2] - Service prices shifted from a 0.3% decline in September to a 0.2% increase in October, influenced by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, airfare, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2] - Year-on-year, the CPI turned from a 0.3% decline in September to a 0.2% increase in October, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, marking the first increase of the year [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to September, indicating a continuous improvement in price levels [5] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include improved supply-demand relationships and the impact of input costs on the prices of non-ferrous metals and petroleum-related industries [4][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price data indicates a steady enhancement of economic vitality and the release of domestic demand potential, supported by macro policies and market confidence [1] - The recovery in domestic demand is expected to continue to support industrial product prices, with ongoing policy measures aimed at stabilizing competition in various sectors [6][7] - The narrowing of PPI declines is attributed to improved order conditions and the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to have a positive impact on related industries [5][7]