1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - environment is better than that in 2025. Although the recovery of the domestic economy cannot be achieved overnight, both the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the overall upward repair trend [3][44]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, mainly due to insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies need to increase support, and the supply side needs to be cleared [44]. - The PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to accelerate from negative to positive under the pull of the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The real estate market is at a critical node of stabilizing and recovering, and its subsequent drag on the macro - economy is expected to be significantly narrowed [3][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI Seasonal Decline - In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points; medium and small - scale enterprises' PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Among the five sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in production, a decline in market demand, a slight narrowing of the decline in raw material inventory, a slight decline in employment, and a slowdown in supplier delivery time [6]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in February was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry business activity index was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points; the service industry business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. The seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI in February has limited symbolic meaning [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI Continued to Improve - In February 2026, the national CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month. The average CPI from January to February increased by 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year. Food and tobacco prices increased by 1.4% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.41 percentage points. Other seven major categories of prices showed five increases and two decreases [10][11]. - In February 2026, the national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The average PPI from January to February decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period of the previous year. In March, the sharp rise in crude oil prices is expected to significantly boost the PPI, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate in 2026 is expected to accelerate from negative to positive [13][15]. 3.3 High Growth in Imports and Exports - From January to February 2026, China's total import and export value was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 21%. Exports were 656.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%; imports were 442.960 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%; the trade surplus was 213.618 billion US dollars [16]. - From January to February, China's exports to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN countries, and Japan all maintained steady growth. Exports to the United States were further replaced by exports to ASEAN. The real risk of China's foreign trade lies in the increased risk of a US economic recession and the decline in demand caused by the slowdown of the global economic growth rate [21][23]. 3.4 Weak Resident Credit Demand and Decline in M1 Growth Rate - At the end of February 2026, the stock of social financing scale was 451.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The increase in social financing scale in the first two months of 2026 was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year [24][25]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, with the growth rate remaining the same as in January. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 115.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, with the growth rate rebounding by 1 percentage point. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 3.1%, indicating an increase in the degree of currency activation [27]. 3.5 High Growth in Industrial Production, Weak Social Retail, and Positive Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year in real terms and 0.83% month - on - month in February [29]. - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 8.6079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Affected by the high base of the previous year and the decline in crude oil prices, the consumption of petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials was weak, dragging down the consumption growth rate. There is still much room for domestic consumption recovery, and further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [29]. - From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 5.2721 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all rebounded [32]. 3.6 Continued Decline in Real Estate Sales and Downward Trend in the Real Estate Market - From January to February, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the sales amount decreased by 20.2% year - on - year. The real estate market continued to cool down [33][35]. - Real estate new construction, construction, and completion also declined further. At the end of February, the inventory of commercial housing for sale increased slightly. The real estate market is at the bottom stage, and with the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline in sales area and amount is gradually narrowing. If strong policies are introduced, it will be conducive to improving market expectations and accelerating the inflection point of the real estate market [36][41]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In January - February 2026, the macro - economy remained stable, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, imports and exports maintained high growth, price indexes continued to rise, M1 and M2 continued to rebound, and industrial added value maintained a high growth rate. However, the growth rate of social retail was weak, and the real estate market was still in a downward trend [44]. - The current constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are mainly due to insufficient domestic effective demand and over - capacity in some industries. In March 2026, the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to accelerate from negative to positive, and the drag of the real estate market on the macro - economy is expected to be significantly narrowed. The macro - environment in 2026 is better than that in 2025 [44]. - The financial market is currently in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment continues to improve. Although full of twists and turns, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2026 are expected to continue the upward repair trend. It is necessary to track the implementation details of subsequent policies, observe the upward strength of prices, and patiently wait for the upward signal of the macro - economy [45].

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in early 2026 remains stable, with a recovery in the price index and a high growth rate in industrial added value[3] - The manufacturing PMI in February is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity[5] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year in February, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.9%[10] Trade and Investment - Total import and export value for January-February 2026 reached $1,099.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%[16] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52,721 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%[32] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year[32] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 86,079 billion yuan in January-February, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[29] - The sales area of new commercial housing fell by 13.5% year-on-year, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market[33] Monetary Policy and Credit - The M2 money supply increased by 9% year-on-year, while the M1 money supply grew by 5.9%, indicating a slight recovery in monetary activity[27] - Social financing scale stock was 451.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%[24] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, with potential for recovery in the real estate market and overall economic growth[44] - Continued implementation of proactive macro policies is necessary to enhance effective demand and support economic recovery[3]

Report Overview The report is a macro monthly report from Hualian Futures, covering various aspects of the economy including foreign exchange, real estate, prices, trade, investment, and economic indicators in China and the US. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Foreign Exchange**: After the Spring Festival, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, driven by both external (Fed's rate - cut cycle and US policy uncertainty) and internal (resilient domestic economy and post - Spring Festival corporate settlement demand) factors. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent rapid RMB appreciation [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai introduced new real estate policies in February 2026, which are expected to help the Shanghai real estate market stabilize and recover first, leading the repair of first - tier cities [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI showed a mild recovery and PPI continued to repair, with clear positive signals in core indicators [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate had an unexpected good start, with a credit structure characterized by strong consumption and weak mortgages, and an increase in M1 driving the activation of currency liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Foreign Exchange**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a new high. The RMB's appreciation was driven by external factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle and internal factors like the resilient domestic economy. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0 to balance the foreign exchange market [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai issued new real estate policies in February 2026, including shortening the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, increasing the provident fund loan limit, and relaxing the loan - set recognition. The national real estate market is still in an adjustment period, and Shanghai is expected to recover first [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, with food prices down 0.7% and non - food prices up 0.4%. PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main driving force. Credit data showed a structural differentiation, with strong consumer loans and weak mortgage loans. M1 - M2 scissors - difference narrowed, indicating more active currency liquidity [13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - **GDP Growth**: From 2023 - 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, with the information transmission, software and information technology services and the leasing and business services industries showing relatively high growth [16]. - **Contribution of Three Industries**: The contributions of the three industries to the constant - price GDP quarterly year - on - year growth and the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate varied over time [17]. 3.3 Industry Data - **Industry Growth**: The growth rate of the industrial added value of different industries showed differences. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries had relatively high growth rates [30][34]. - **Industrial Output**: The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel also showed certain trends. For instance, the output of crude oil and steel fluctuated over time [36]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In November 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The growth rate of high - energy - consuming industries in the secondary industry slowed down, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained a high growth rate of 6% - 10% [45]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Different industries had different profit situations, with the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry having a significant increase in profit [49]. - **Industrial Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The finished - product inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the actual inventory growth rate after excluding price factors was about 5.8% [59]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.7%, and non - food prices increased by 0.4%. Different CPI sub - items had different price changes [66]. - **PPI**: In January 2026, China's PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The prices of production materials and living materials both showed certain changes [74]. 3.5 Real Estate - **New Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with Shanghai being an exception with a 4.2% increase. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [85]. - **Second - hand Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 7.6% year - on - year. Second - and third - tier cities also had price declines [89]. 3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's total import and export value was 601.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [99]. - **Key Commodity Exports and Imports**: The export and import amounts of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends over time [106][107]. 3.7 Fixed - Asset Investment - **Total Fixed - Asset Investment**: In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Different industries had different investment growth rates, with the secondary industry having a 2.5% increase and the third industry having a 7.4% decrease [119]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales amount of real estate all showed declines [127][131][135]. 3.8 Domestic Trade - **Retail Sales**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed certain trends. The retail sales of different industries also had different growth rates [163][170]. 3.9 Transportation - **Freight and Passenger Transport**: The transportation volumes of different freight and passenger transport modes showed different trends. The traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and the investment in transportation fixed assets also had certain characteristics [173][174][176]. 3.10 Banking and Currency - **Social Financing**: The new social financing scale and its components showed different trends over time. The stock of social financing scale and its components also had different year - on - year growth rates [184][185]. - **Credit**: The new RMB loans and their components, including short - term and long - term loans, household loans, and enterprise loans, showed different trends [194]. - **Monetary Liquidity**: In January, the M1 growth rate declined significantly, and the M2 growth rate increased slightly. The M2 - M1 scissors - difference expanded to 4.7%, indicating a slowdown in capital activation [200]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index showed certain trends, and the foreign exchange and gold reserves increased [210][221]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Different types of fiscal revenues and expenditures also had different changes [236][237]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added urban jobs and the urban survey unemployment rate showed certain trends [241]. 3.12 Business Surveys - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations from 2025 - 2026. Different countries and regions had different PMI values [246]. - **China Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.8 percentage points. Different sub - indicators such as production, new orders, and prices showed different trends [249]. - **China Non - Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points. The construction and service industries both saw a decline in business activity, with different degrees of industry differentiation [257]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - **GDP Growth**: The US real GDP环比折年率 showed fluctuations from 2023 - 2025. Different components such as private consumption, investment, and government spending had different contributions to GDP growth [264]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US showed certain trends [265]. - **Treasury Yields**: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and the yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [272]. - **Retail Sales**: The retail and food service sales in the US showed different year - on - year growth rates for different categories [273]. - **Federal Reserve**: The asset structure of the Federal Reserve and the federal funds rate showed certain trends. The reverse repurchase amount on the liability side of the Federal Reserve decreased significantly this year [274][277].

Group 1: CPI and PPI Data - The January CPI is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, influenced by rising pork prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] - The January PPI is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year, with the factory price index rising to 50.6% and the main raw material purchase price index increasing to 56.1% [2] - Future projections indicate that the CPI for February and March will be 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, while the PPI is expected to be -1.4% and -1.2% for the same months [2] Group 2: Financial Data - January's new RMB loans are anticipated to be 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.2% [3] - The social financing scale for January is expected to be 6.9 trillion yuan, down by approximately 98 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.1% [3] - M2 growth rate is projected to remain steady at 8.5%, while M1 is expected to decline to 2.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [3] Group 3: New Stock Issuance - A new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be issued on February 9, with a total of 18.7934 million shares offered at a price of 16.17 yuan per share [4] - The company specializes in automotive lighting systems and electronic control systems, with products including LED light modules and energy management systems [4] - The funds raised will be used for projects related to intelligent LED modules and charging distribution systems [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission of China is focusing on high-quality development of state-owned enterprises by 2025 [1] - The 19th Asian Financial Forum is scheduled to take place in Hong Kong [1] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will hold the "Star Computing and Intelligent Connection" conference in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy for December [2] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision [2] - Major companies such as ASML and Starbucks are set to release their financial reports [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision [2] - The U.S. core PCE price index for December will be released [2] - The 5th ASEAN Rail Transit International Summit will be held in Malaysia [2] Group 4 - New stock subscriptions for Linping Development and Electric are scheduled [2] - Major companies including Apple and Western Digital will release their financial reports [2] - China's PMI for January will be published [2] Group 5 - OPEC+ and eight oil-producing countries will discuss oil production policies [2] - The World Summit of Leading Scientists will take place in Dubai, UAE [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Macro Weekly Report: Moderate Recovery in Prices and Continuous Gold Purchases by the Central Bank" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, China's CPI showed a moderate increase, with an annual CPI remaining flat compared to the previous year. The PPI decreased in 2025 but showed signs of improvement in December. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [8][11][251] - The "Two New" policies (equipment renewal + consumer goods trade - in) and housing - related policies were introduced in 2026, which are expected to have an impact on the market, especially in the consumer and real estate sectors [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates showed fluctuations from 2023 to 2025. Different industries had different growth trends, with industries like information technology and finance showing relatively stable growth, while the real estate industry had negative growth in some periods [17] 3.2 Industry 3.2.1 Industrial Growth - The growth of the industrial sector was diverse. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing had relatively high growth rates, while others like coal mining and textile had more moderate or negative growth in certain months [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Industrial Output - Output of various industrial products, including energy, raw materials, and finished products, showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil and steel had fluctuations, and the output of new energy vehicles increased [35] 3.2.3 Industrial Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, China's total electricity consumption reached 8356 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to have an average annual growth rate of 4.2% - 5.6% [42] 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries like electronics and power showing growth and others like coal mining showing a decline [46][50] 3.2.5 Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the finished - goods inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The inventory of the mining industry decreased, while that of the mid - and downstream manufacturing industries remained stable [57] 3.3 Price Index 3.3.1 CPI - In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices had a significant impact on CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits driving the increase, while pork prices had a downward effect [64] 3.3.2 PPI - In December 2025, the national PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. Production materials prices had a greater impact on the overall PPI decline [73] 3.3.3 Housing Prices - In November 2025, new - home and second - hand home prices in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities generally showed a downward trend year - on - year, with different degrees of decline [83][88] 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment 3.4.1 Import and Export Trade - In November 2025, China's total import and export value was $520.63 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [97] 3.4.2 Key Commodity Exports and Imports - The exports and imports of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and high - tech products showed different trends. For example, the export of high - tech products like electric vehicles increased [105][106] 3.4.3 Foreign Investment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Investment in different industries had different trends, with the secondary industry showing growth and the tertiary industry showing a decline [120] 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed fluctuations. The retail sales of different consumer goods categories also had different performance [163][170] 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers showed different trends in different transportation modes. For example, the railway and civil aviation transportation had different growth rates in passenger volume [173][178] 3.8 Banking and Currency 3.8.1 Social Financing - The new social financing scale and its components showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different financing methods such as RMB loans, government bonds, and corporate bonds had different growth trends [188] 3.8.2 Monetary Liquidity - In October 2025, the growth rates of M1 and M2 decreased. The M2 - M1 scissors gap widened slightly, and the money activation trend slowed down [204] 3.8.3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate remained basically stable against a basket of currencies [213][231] 3.9 Fiscal and Employment 3.9.1 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Fiscal revenue and expenditure data showed different trends in different months. Tax revenue and non - tax revenue, as well as different expenditure items such as infrastructure and people's livelihood, had different growth rates [239][240] 3.9.2 Employment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.10 Business Climate Survey 3.10.1 Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different countries and regions had different manufacturing climate situations [248] 3.10.2 China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded. Different industries within the non - manufacturing sector had different degrees of recovery [251][259] 3.11 US Macroeconomy 3.11.1 US GDP - The US real GDP had different growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025, with private consumption, investment, and net exports having different impacts on GDP growth [266] 3.11.2 US Employment - The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data showed the employment situation in the United States [269] 3.11.3 US Treasury Yields - The yields of different - term US Treasury bonds showed different trends, and the yield curve inversion situation also changed [274] 3.11.4 US Retail Sales - The US retail and food service sales had different growth rates from 2024 to 2025, with different categories of goods having different performance [277] 3.11.5 Federal Reserve's Assets and Liabilities - The Federal Reserve's asset structure and federal funds rate, as well as the changes in the reverse - repurchase amount on the liability side, were presented [278][281]

Group 1 - China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves data for December 2025 will be released on January 7 at 16:00 [1] - The Eurozone's preliminary CPI for December 2025 is expected to be 2.0%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.1% [1] - The Eurozone's core harmonized CPI for December 2025 is expected to remain stable at 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment change for the US in December 2025 is anticipated to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, a recovery from the previous decrease of 32,000 jobs [2] - If the ADP employment figures exceed expectations, it may positively impact the prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil [2] Group 3 - The Eurozone's unemployment rate for November 2025 is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4% [2] Group 4 - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, 2025, are projected to be 195,000, slightly down from 199,000 [3] - A lower than expected jobless claims figure may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices [3] Group 5 - China's CPI for December 2025 is expected to grow by 0.90%, up from the previous 0.70%, while the PPI is expected to decline by 2.05%, a slight improvement from the previous decline of 2.20% [4] - A higher CPI and a lower PPI could positively influence industrial product futures while potentially suppressing stock index and government bond futures [4] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted increase of 53,000 jobs, down from 64,000 [5] - The unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.5% from 4.6%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - A lower non-farm payroll figure could reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 [5] Group 7 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2026 from the University of Michigan is expected to be 53.2, slightly up from 52.9 [5] - A higher consumer confidence index may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices while potentially suppressing precious metals prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. employment indicators are stabilizing at low levels, with various metrics showing signs of steadiness in the labor market [2]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - Multiple economic data points from the U.S. exceeded expectations, including Q3 GDP growth rate, personal consumption, industrial output growth for November, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December. However, consumer confidence and durable goods orders growth fell short of expectations [4][18]. - In the Eurozone, Spain's November PPI decreased compared to the previous value, while Italy's November PPI increased [5][18]. - Japan's inflation and industrial output were below expectations [5][18]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December, scheduled for release on January 2, and the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for December, also set for January 2 [6][20]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index showed a slight rebound, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week ending December 20, compared to 2.31% the previous week [7][22]. - Germany's economic activity index also trended upward, reaching 0.14% for the week ending December 21 [7][22]. Group 4: Demand - U.S. retail sales growth, as measured by the Redbook index, increased year-on-year to 7.2% for the week ending December 19, up from 6.2% the previous week [8][28]. - Mortgage rates in the U.S. remained stable, with a slight decline in mortgage applications [9][30]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment figures showed stabilization at low levels, with approximately 46,000 new jobs added in the four weeks ending December 9, down from 70,000 the previous week [9][35]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, better than expected, while continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, exceeding expectations [10][38]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 104.66 as of December 12, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week [11][41]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week as of December 26, following a decline of 1.1% the previous week [12][46]. - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.72 per gallon for the week ending December 22, down 1.9% from the previous week [12][46]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved, while U.S. financial conditions remained stable at high levels [13][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.1 pips, improving from -25.8 pips the previous week [13][51]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds remained stable at 265.3 basis points as of December 26 [13][54]. - U.S. and Japanese long-term government bond spreads remained stable, with the 10-year U.S.-Japan bond spread at 214.1 basis points [13][57]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of December 24, cumulative federal spending in the U.S. for the year was approximately $7.66 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [15][62].

Consumption - Domestic demand is recovering, with service consumption potential being significant, as evidenced by high visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland and ongoing winter tourism demand in Hainan[3] - Automotive sales show a slight decline, with retail and wholesale volumes at near-average levels for recent years[6] - Food and beverage prices are rising due to pre-holiday stocking, with agricultural product wholesale prices reaching recent highs[6] Investment - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction area declines narrowing from 33.7% to 23.4% year-on-year[18] - Infrastructure investment is supported by improved fiscal spending, although November's spending remains below last year's levels[18] - Land transaction area has seasonally increased, but the land premium rate has dropped to 1.8%, indicating ongoing price competition[18] Trade and Export - Port operations are showing marginal improvement, with an increase in the number of outbound vessels compared to the previous week[24] - Domestic export freight rates have risen by 0.6%, with Ningbo and Shanghai seeing increases of 3.2% and 3.1% respectively[24] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has dropped by 12.9% due to excess shipping capacity and seasonal factors affecting international trade[24] Production - Production rates are showing divergence across sectors, with high operating rates in formaldehyde and lithium iron phosphate, while polyester and lithium battery demand support production[26] - Steel and photovoltaic industries are experiencing mixed performance, with upstream and downstream sectors showing different trends[26] Prices and Inflation - Industrial product prices are declining, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing structural differentiation in price movements across categories[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline, with coal prices dropping and Brent oil prices also decreasing, reflecting weak winter demand[42] Liquidity - The Renminbi continues to strengthen, with the exchange rate against the US dollar improving from 7.0554 to 7.0410[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.83%[47]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October 2025 increased by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in economic conditions despite a previous decline of 0.3% in September [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the largest increase since March 2024 and suggesting a recovery in industrial and service consumption [1] - The improvement in CPI reflects a stabilization in consumer spending and may positively impact employment in the service sector, addressing key economic challenges [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but showed a narrowing decline compared to September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year [2] - The narrowing of the PPI decline and its month-on-month increase may signal the end of the current downtrend, potentially enhancing corporate profitability and production enthusiasm [2] - A positive shift in PPI could lead to a stronger upward movement in CPI and an improvement in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), fostering optimistic investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - The positive changes in price indices in October may have seasonal factors, and one month of data is insufficient for trend analysis, indicating that demand and production recovery is still in its early stages [3] - The improvement in price conditions provides room for fiscal and monetary policy actions in the last two months of the year, suggesting a likely enhancement in market confidence and economic conditions [3] - The stock market's recent upward trend, hovering around 4000 points, is attributed to improved liquidity, but sustainable growth will depend on corporate earnings recovery alongside capital inflows [3]