许多人认为，未来最不值钱的莫过于钞票，这主要是基于国内货币超发严重的现实。眼下的M2总量已攀升至330万亿，不仅是美国的双倍，甚至超越了欧洲 和日本所有货币的总和。因此，不少人预测，未来几年人民币的贬值速度将尤为惊人。 然而，事实却与预期大相径庭。我国经济正经历一场通缩周期，上半年居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比不升反降0.1%。我们原本担心的通货膨胀并未到来， 物价反而整体呈现出"稳中有降"的态势。 那么，为何大量超发的货币并未如大家所料导致人民币快速贬值？这背后主要有两个关键原因。 首先，那些巨额的超发货币并未真正渗透到社会经济的各个角落，而是大量滞留在金融体系内部空转。究其根源，是企业和居民的信心普遍不足，导致贷款 市场的需求大幅萎缩。大家都不敢轻易投资，也不敢轻易消费，资金自然难以流出金融的"围墙"。 其次，实体经济的低迷直接削弱了居民的消费能力。收入的减少，甚至失业的阴影，使得大家手中的钱变得更加"金贵"，不敢随意花销。结果便是，企业生 产出的商品难以销售，库存积压严重。为了尽快回笼资金，企业只能选择降价促销。如此一来，物价不仅未能上涨，反而出现了显著的下跌趋势。 面对这场通缩的经济浪潮，一位银行的资 ...

Core Viewpoint - AI is significantly disrupting the $450 billion software sector, leading to potential job losses and deflationary pressures in the economy [1][2] Industry Impact - Software companies, once dominant, are now facing existential threats due to AI displacement, which could shrink the software market and contribute to deflation [2] - The inflation outlook indicates that AI is contributing to disinflation, with core CPI projected to drop to 2.52%, aligning with pre-COVID inflation levels [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Fed is expected to lead to a dovish stance, with potential rate cuts as the economy adjusts to job losses and AI disruptions [4] - Historical Fed funds rates during 2017-2019 were between 1.5%-2.0%, suggesting significant room for rate cuts from current levels [4] Market Dynamics - A major market shift is occurring as investors rotate from the "Magnificent 7" tech giants to companies that provide AI infrastructure, such as energy providers and chip makers [5][6] - This rotation is anticipated to trigger a 10-20% decline in the U.S. market as capital flows out of the tech sector and into industrials and financials [7]

Join High Dividend Opportunity Today! Sign Up For Premium Today! This video's transcript was generated by a third party. It is not curated or reviewed and is provided for convenience and information purposes only. The accuracy and completeness of the transcript are not guaranteed. Daniel Snyder: Hey, everyone. Daniel Snyder here from Seeking Alpha. Thank you so much for taking the time to join me for this webinar. Today, we are exploring for yield across the market, and none other than Will Barton from Hig ...

Naomi, we're seeing a little bit of downside for the Japanese yen, but it doesn't seem to be at least catastrophic for now, when it comes to the pace of potential losses that we could have seen with the supposed Takaichi trade. What are your expectations now that you've seen the outcome of the elections. Well, what's interesting is that even though Takaichi won quite a lot of popular support, markets haven't voted yet.And so I think it's sensible to to give Takaichi the benefit of the doubt because after al ...

2024 was so significant. That's when Trump got elected by tilting over to the cryptos. And what we found out is crypto's got trumped. The key question is what's next.Maybe it's the stock market. But the fact is, gold and precious metals and steel and silver rallied so far so fast. That's never happened with stock market volatility so low.So I think what's happening now is we're turning into a year that's going to end up like 2008. It's great for traders. I used to be one and it's just getting started.So it' ...

Market Analysis by covering: . Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Chinese economy** and its **2-speed growth model**, highlighting the divergence between strong sectors (exports/manufacturing) and weak sectors (consumption/property) [3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The narrative regarding China's economic performance has shifted from a simplistic view of "China in recession" to a more nuanced perspective that acknowledges both strengths and weaknesses [3][10]. - The **strong track** of the economy, particularly in technology sectors such as AI and robotics, has gained more attention, while the **weak track** remains subdued [5][9]. - Key factors contributing to the narrative shift include: - **Re-evaluation of Chinese tech**: Increased appreciation for China's capabilities in innovative sectors [9]. - **Trade resilience**: Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, overall exports remained stable in 2025 [9]. - **Easing of "Japanification" fears**: Concerns about prolonged deflation have lessened, leading to rising bond yields since early 2025 [9]. - **Weak US dollar**: The dollar index fell by 9% in 2025, allowing MSCI China to outperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2020 [9]. - **US policies**: Current US trade and geopolitical policies have indirectly benefited China [9]. Additional Important Insights - The market's improved performance may attract more foreign investors, leading to a better understanding of China's economic landscape [11]. - A balanced perspective is essential; while the narrative of "China is winning" is gaining traction, it does not negate the ongoing challenges, particularly in domestic demand and deflation [12][14]. - The **CNY (Chinese Yuan)** is expected to remain passive, tied to the US dollar, until a significant domestic economic recovery occurs [23]. - The **2025 market rally** was primarily driven by multiple re-ratings rather than earnings growth, which remains muted due to the deflationary environment [12][15]. Future Considerations - The potential for a **fundamental recovery** in the Chinese economy is contingent upon significant demand-side stimulus [22]. - The narrative shift from "un-investable" to "partly investable" in the Chinese market, particularly in tech and export sectors, indicates a cautious optimism among investors [21]. - The weak track of the economy is likely to persist as long as the strong track remains robust, suggesting a prolonged period of 2-speed growth [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Economic Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's economic outlook as it enters the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) in 2026, emphasizing growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Targets - Policymakers are expected to target "around 5%" growth for 2026 and "at least 4.5%" for the remainder of the 15th FYP period, with an anticipated real growth of 4.7% in 2026 amid ongoing deflation [4][6][18]. 2. High-End Manufacturing - The 15th FYP emphasizes advanced manufacturing and AI development, with progress noted in green technology and heavy industry. However, technological gaps remain, particularly in high-tech sectors [4][29][30]. 3. Export Dynamics - Nominal export growth is projected to slow to approximately 3.4% in 2026, with net exports contributing about 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth. Rising trade barriers and stricter enforcement are significant challenges, although China's cost advantage supports exports [4][70][54]. 4. Fiscal Policy and Consumption Support - The central government's budget deficit is projected at around 4% of GDP, with total deficits (central plus local) at approximately 11%. Fiscal support for consumption is expected to increase modestly to about 0.5% of GDP, focusing on subsidies for various sectors [4][9][80]. 5. Deflation and Economic Adjustments - CPI is expected to average 0.7% in 2026, with persistent PPI deflation due to excess supply. A shift in policy support towards consumption and services is necessary for durable reflation [4][10][6]. 6. Housing Market Correction - The housing correction is likely to continue without decisive measures to stabilize prices or stimulate demand. A comprehensive approach is needed to address the ongoing downturn in housing activity [4][11][78]. 7. Currency Appreciation - Modest, managed appreciation of the CNY is expected, influenced by a high current account surplus and capital outflows. Claims of undervaluation are considered overstated, with competitiveness driven more by efficiency and deflation [4][12][69]. 8. AI Adoption and Technological Development - China's AI+ initiative aims for broad integration across industries, focusing on mature-node silicon and advanced packaging. However, productivity gains depend on effective workflow integration and governance to manage labor market disruptions [4][13][46]. 9. Geopolitical Landscape - Elevated geopolitical risks characterize the start of 2026, with potential shifts in regional relationships. The response from China has been muted, but changes in ties with neighboring economies are anticipated [4][14]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the challenges posed by Western tech export controls and the need for China to enhance its self-sufficiency in critical technologies. The ongoing geopolitical tensions may further complicate China's economic landscape [4][50][68]. - The report also notes the importance of balancing fiscal support between consumption and investment, as weak income gains and high savings rates hinder consumer spending [4][83][80]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding China's economic outlook for 2026, providing insights into growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and the **RMB (Renminbi) currency** dynamics, particularly regarding its appreciation and implications for economic rebalancing. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation and Economic Rebalancing**: The prevailing view that RMB appreciation will aid in rebalancing China's economy is contested. A significant appreciation could hinder the exit from deflation, negatively impact corporate margins, and slow wage growth. Sustainable rebalancing requires substantial fiscal easing to enhance consumption [2][6][34]. - **Current Macroeconomic Conditions**: The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, with a real GDP growth rate of 4.5% in Q4 2025, marking a three-year low. Deflationary pressures are expected to persist into 2026, indicating that significant currency appreciation is not warranted under current conditions [34][35]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a growing bullish sentiment among investors regarding RMB appreciation, driven by strong export performance. However, this optimism may not align with the economic realities that suggest a stable RMB is preferred by policymakers [6][7][16]. - **Trade Surplus and Currency Strength**: China's trade surplus has increased to 6.1% of GDP, up 1.6 percentage points over two years, driven by a rise in exports relative to GDP and a decline in imports. This strong external balance supports a modest appreciation of the RMB against the USD [16][19]. - **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where significant currency appreciation exacerbated deflationary pressures and led to a loss of export competitiveness. This historical lesson suggests that RMB appreciation could similarly harm China's economic structure [41][50]. Additional Important Points - **Policy Measures**: The Chinese government aims to maintain the trade-weighted RMB index stable, with expectations of it remaining in the range of 98-99 by the end of 2026. There is no intent for sustained appreciation, as evidenced by the stable range maintained since 2016 [8][10]. - **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Policymakers prefer investment-driven growth over consumption, viewing fiscal expansion for consumption as a temporary boost that increases debt burdens. This preference complicates efforts to achieve sustainable economic rebalancing [50][51]. - **Social Welfare Reforms**: While the 15th Five-Year Plan indicates a shift towards consumption, significant reforms are expected to be gradual due to their complexity. Targeted subsidies and social welfare improvements are anticipated, but addressing the core issues of social security for households will take longer [52][51]. - **Current Account Balance**: The current account surplus is projected to remain wide at 2.9% and 3.1% of GDP for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting ongoing weak domestic demand and a high savings rate among households [28][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy and RMB dynamics, highlighting the complexities and challenges faced in achieving sustainable economic rebalancing.

Economic Outlook - ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood forecasts a "Goldilocks" economic scenario in 2026, predicting real GDP growth nearing 5% alongside falling inflation, potentially leading to deflation, driven by an AI-led productivity boom [1][2] - Wood argues that the U.S. economy is emerging from a three-year "rolling recession" that impacted housing and manufacturing, with real GDP growth already exceeding 4% in late 2025 [2] Inflation and Productivity - Wood highlights declining oil prices, which may decrease by another 20-25%, and falling unit labor costs as indicators that inflation could surprise to the downside, possibly turning negative [3] - She asserts that productivity-driven growth is associated with falling inflation, contrasting with the consensus view that rapid growth leads to inflation [3] Housing Market - Wood expresses optimism about a housing recovery, supported by a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase program announced by President Trump aimed at lowering interest rates [3] - Homebuilders like Lennar Corp. and KB Home are reducing prices to clear inventory, which, combined with improving affordability and lower rates, is expected to drive a significant rebound in residential real estate [4] Asset Allocation - Wood differentiates between Gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that Gold prices may have reached "irrational exuberance" relative to money supply, while advocating for Bitcoin as the "ultimate diversifier" [5] - She presents data indicating Bitcoin's correlation to traditional asset classes remains near zero, arguing that asset allocators have a "fiduciary duty" to consider crypto assets for optimizing portfolio risk and returns [6] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices have seen year-to-date gains of 1.44% and 3.09%, respectively, while the Nasdaq 100 index has risen by 1.03% [7] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF closed higher, with SPY up 0.16% at $695.16 and QQQ advancing 0.083% to $627.17 [7]