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What's Top of Mind in Macro Research_ More US inflation_China deflation, data reliability, Trump-Putin meeting
2025-08-14 01:36
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **US Inflation and China Deflation**: The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% in July, aligning with expectations. Monthly core inflation is anticipated to remain in the range of 0.3-0.4% for the upcoming months due to tariffs affecting core goods prices, particularly in consumer electronics, autos, and apparel. The forecast for core CPI/PCE inflation is projected to rise to 3.2% year-over-year by December, with expectations of a decline in inflation next year as tariffs provide only a temporary price boost [1][2][3]. - **China's Economic Challenges**: China is experiencing significant Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation, with a forecast of -2.8% for this year and -1.0% for the next year. The government's efforts to curb aggressive price competition are unlikely to lead to rapid PPI reflation due to overcapacity issues in various sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - **Economic Data Reliability**: There are growing concerns regarding the reliability of economic data, particularly in the US. While there is mixed evidence of systematic deterioration in global economic data, a long-term decline in survey response rates and increased standard errors for some indicators suggest a modest decline in data quality across developed economies. This deterioration could hinder economic and financial sector growth [9]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The upcoming Trump-Putin meeting is being closely monitored, with skepticism in the market regarding any significant outcomes, particularly concerning Russian gas and oil supply. The expectation is that no major shifts in supply will occur, regardless of the meeting's outcome [9]. - **Bank of England (BoE) Policy**: Following a hawkish message from the BoE, a slower rate-cutting path is anticipated, with a terminal rate of 3% expected to be reached in April rather than March. This has implications for the Sterling, which may depreciate due to ongoing growth and fiscal risks [9]. Additional Considerations - **Tariff Impacts**: The relatively high tariffs announced by the US on India and Switzerland are expected to negatively impact their economic growth [10]. - **Sector-Specific Insights**: The Chinese government's "anti-involution" efforts span multiple sectors, indicating a broad approach to managing economic challenges. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain due to underlying structural issues in the economy [4][6]. - **Forecasts and Projections**: Goldman Sachs has provided various economic forecasts, including GDP growth rates for the US (1.1% for 2025), China (4.0% for 2025), and the Euro area (1.0% for 2025). Interest rates and commodity prices are also projected, reflecting the broader economic landscape [22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic conditions in the US and China, the reliability of economic data, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific insights.
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-12 22:20
Thailand is expected to cut its key rate at the last meeting to be led by outgoing Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, as policymakers look to shield the economy from the risks of US tariffs and deflation https://t.co/QECdYa3bRo ...
投资者推介 - 全球经济展望-Investor Presentation-Global Economy Outlook
2025-08-11 01:21
August 8, 2025 07:27 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan M Foundation Japan Summer School: Global Economy Outlook Our Global Macro View: Which Economic Indicators Matter? Understanding the global economy requires careful interpretation of various macroeconomic indicators. In this session, we will share our global macro outlook and explain how we assess the significance of key economic data. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. Chiwoong Lee Principal Global Economist Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com + ...
Why You're Falling Behind Financially — Bitcoin Helps. Asset Beginner Guide
Digital Asset News· 2025-08-09 23:23
This is why you're falling behind financially and there's some things that people may not have told you and where Bitcoin fits into all of it. So before we get into Bitcoin, let's talk a little bit about some basics and those basics are inflation. So just so everybody knows, everybody understands that uh here in America 100 pennies will equate to $1, four quarters or 20 nickels and that is infinite meaning that the US government can print as many dollars as they want to and there is no shortage of how much ...
今明两年,手中有存款的家庭,或将面临4个大问题,注意了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 10:41
主要原因是:一方面,银行网点每天的流动资金有限,储户提前预约,银行就可以准备更多的流动资金。另一方面,银行要求储户说明资金的用途,就是为 了打击洗钱、电信诈骗等不法行为,这样既能稳定金融体系安全,又能保护储户存款。 近些年,国内储户存钱的热情是越来越高涨。根据央行发布的最新数据,截至2025年5月底,我国居民存款余额已达到128.4万亿元,同比增长7.2%。之前存 钱的主力军是中老年人,而现在有越来越多的年轻人也都加入进来。年轻人之所以也开始重视存钱,就是为了应对失业、疾病等突发事情。此外,现在国内 资本市场的风险在不断上升。于是,大家都把钱存入银行。 虽然,储户存钱的热情越来越高,但也有业内人士提醒大家,今明两年,手中有存款的家庭,或将面临4个大问题。它们分别是:①存款利率越来越低;② 取现难度在上升;③存款利率跑不赢通胀;④有钱不敢乱投资。让我们一起来了解一下: 第一,存款利率越来越低 从2024年开始,银行存款利率进入到快速调整的趋势之中。之前1年期存款利率达到2.25%,而现在1年期存款利率只有1.35%。如果拿10万元存银行定期, 之前每年能拿2250元利息,现在只有1350元,足足少了900元。而 ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-09 03:28
China’s consumer prices held steady in July as deflationary pressures eased on the back of a government pledge to contain excessive competition https://t.co/Vsi3liPWdo ...
中国的通缩与关税 -对印度的影响-Asia Economics -The Viewpoint China’s deflation and tariffs – how they affect India
2025-08-05 08:17
August 4, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: China's deflation and tariffs – how they affect India India's favourable domestic fundamentals are juxtaposed against a challenging external backdrop of first China's deflationary spillovers and now tariffs. But RBI's easing efforts over the past four months has lowered real rates for the non-farm economy and should support reflation of the economy. Key Takeaways Kelly.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0891 China's deflationary pressure ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-23 05:46
A global selloff in longer-dated bonds has finally spilled over into Chinese debt, as easing US trade tensions and Beijing’s efforts to tackle deflation damp demand for the notes https://t.co/7tiwPULo5p ...
中国:反内卷-应对通缩的良方?Asia Economics-China Anti-Involution – The Antidote to Deflation
2025-07-22 01:59
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly addressing the **deflation challenge** and the **anti-involution program** aimed at tackling excess capacity and stimulating demand [3][7][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Intent and Action**: Policymakers are reaffirming support for the anti-involution effort, indicating that new policy actions are likely to emerge in response to the deflation challenge [7][10]. 2. **Historical Context**: The current situation is being compared to the **2015-16 supply-side reforms**, which helped the economy exit deflation in September 2016. However, the current cycle is expected to be more prolonged due to structural issues in the property market and trade tensions [7][11]. 3. **Deflation Metrics**: The GDP deflator has been negative for the past nine quarters, and producer prices have been in deflation for 33 months, indicating a significant deflationary environment [8][11]. 4. **Excess Capacity**: A substantial portion of excess capacity (50-90%) is located in the private sector, complicating efforts to boost demand [7][11]. 5. **Demand Challenges**: The structural downturn in the property market and trade tensions are significant barriers to boosting demand, making it more challenging to combat deflation [11][12]. 6. **Consumption Focus**: A sustainable solution to the deflation problem requires a shift towards supporting consumption, particularly through increased social welfare spending aimed at urban migrant workers and the rural poor [12][47]. 7. **Investment Dynamics**: Non-real estate fixed asset investment (FAI) has grown by 26% since 2Q21, with gross investment to GDP remaining elevated at 41%, contrasting with Japan's experience post-bubble [20][27]. 8. **Diminishing Returns**: The current investment push has led to diminishing returns, with the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) rising to 7.9 in 2025 from 7.3 in 2023 [27][30]. 9. **Demographic Challenges**: Declining population and weaker demographics are expected to hinder property sales and overall economic growth, complicating the deflation battle [27][31]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Private Sector Dominance**: Unlike previous cycles where state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominated, the current overcapacity issues are primarily in private sectors such as solar, EVs, and batteries, complicating coordination for supply-side consolidation [49][50]. 2. **Excess Supply in Key Sectors**: In solar, China's supply is over twice the global demand, and in EV batteries, it is 1.3 times the global demand, indicating severe overcapacity [51][54]. 3. **Historical Lessons**: The report draws parallels with past deflation cycles, emphasizing that both demand recovery and supply-side reforms are necessary to exit deflation sustainably [33][34]. 4. **Global Economic Context**: The report notes that global growth is expected to slow below trend due to trade tensions, which will further impact China's economic recovery [44]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call, highlighting the complexities of China's current economic challenges and the multifaceted approach required to address them.
宏观研究关注焦点_ 关税邮件、美国通胀_ 中国通缩、中国经济增长-What's Top of Mind in Macro Research_ Tariff mail, US inflation_China deflation, China growth
2025-07-19 14:57
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic factors affecting global trade, particularly focusing on tariffs proposed by the Trump Administration and their implications for various economies, including the EU, Brazil, and Mexico [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Implications**: - A proposed 30% tariff on the EU could reduce Euro area GDP by over 1.2% through the end of 2026 [1]. - A proposed 50% tariff on Brazil may lower Brazil's GDP growth by more than 0.3-0.4 percentage points [1]. - The 30% tariff on Mexico is expected to have modest impacts due to current exemptions for USMCA-compliant exports, but significant impacts could arise if these exemptions are removed [1]. - **Expectations on Tariff Implementation**: - It is generally anticipated that the higher proposed tariffs will not take effect, viewing them as a negotiating tactic. A more likely scenario is an increase of the baseline tariff from 10% to 15% for countries that do not reach agreements with the US by the August 1 deadline [2]. - The expectation is for a slight decrease in the near-term US effective tariff rate, with a potential rise to a level approximately 3 percentage points higher than previously estimated [2]. - **Market Reactions**: - Market participants do not expect most proposed tariffs to be enacted, which has contributed to a muted market reaction. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, with expectations for further rises in US, European, and emerging market equities [3]. Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Trends**: - Despite a below-consensus rise in US core CPI in June, expectations are for core CPI/PCE inflation to rise to 3.1%/3.3% year-on-year by December, driven by higher tariffs impacting core goods prices [6]. - In contrast, the UK experienced an unexpected rise in CPI, with services inflation expected to remain above target levels throughout 2025 [7]. - **China's Economic Situation**: - China is experiencing its 33rd consecutive month of year-on-year PPI deflation, with expectations for continued price declines. Headline PPI inflation is projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year this year and 1.0% next year [8]. - **Commodity Market Outlook**: - The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2H25 has been raised to $66 per barrel, while the LME copper price forecast for August 2025 has been lowered to $9,550 per ton [14]. - **US Housing Market**: - Home price appreciation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively, reflecting ongoing weakness in home price data and a gradual recovery in housing supply [14]. - **Treasury Cash Balance**: - The Treasury's cash balance is expected to be replenished following a recent increase in the debt limit, potentially returning to $850 billion by the end of Q3, which may lead to upward pressure on funding costs [14]. Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape is influenced by proposed tariffs, inflation trends, and commodity prices, with significant implications for global GDP growth and market performance. The focus remains on how these factors will evolve in the coming quarters, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and economic recovery efforts across different regions.