智通财经APP获悉，在全球金融市场风险上升且美股陷入剧烈波动的背景下，美国国债市场实现一年来的最佳单月 表现。由于美国科技股估值高企、"AI颠覆一切"基调重创软件与数字经济领域以及市场对科技巨头们主导的人工智 能愈发庞大支出不可持续的担忧情绪升温，美债需求再度全线升温也凸显出，投资者们在恐慌时刻仍然将美国国债 视为动荡时期首屈一指的避险资产。 AI颠覆恐慌、特朗普关税不确定性、股市震荡与资金回流美债/黄金/瑞郎的市场脉络，共同构筑起美债市场上行轨 迹的强劲推动力量。在这个月里，其他市场不断闪现警示与危机信号——从人工智能所展现出的史无前例颠覆性且 可能带来通缩效应的现实证据，到地缘政治紧张局势持续升温，再到市场对私人信贷领域隐藏风险的担忧，在这种 金融市场整体风险急剧上升的背景下，交易员们纷纷涌向美国国债。 长期以来具备避险属性的美债市场的结果是——一项跟踪美国国债市场的基准指数2月回报率达到1.5%，有望创下 自去年同期以来的最佳表现。10年及以上的长期限美国国债表现最为亮眼，以价格衡量的投资回报上涨约4%，市场 开始转向长期以来被资金唾弃的长期限美国国债作为抵消负面压力时期的关键避险资产。 这轮美债上涨轨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market sentiment has improved due to weak performance in risk assets and central bank support for liquidity, leading to a stronger overall performance in government bond futures [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - There is an increase in the willingness of institutions to "hold bonds over the holiday" due to a backdrop of easing risk aversion, calendar effects, and stable liquidity [1] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strong trend leading up to the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Post-holiday, there is a high probability of divergence in bond market trends and an increase in volatility [1] - Key focus areas include changes in the macroeconomic environment and movements in risk assets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global gold and silver prices have experienced a significant decline after a historic rise, with gold dropping nearly 10% and silver falling 16%, erasing all gains made since the beginning of the year [1][4] - The recent sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, which strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated precious metals [7] - Despite the short-term price corrections, the fundamental support for gold remains strong, and the long-term investment theme for gold is still positive, indicating that the market has not entered a phase of sustained decline [7] Group 2 - The precious metals market has been driven by multiple factors since the beginning of the year, including geopolitical tensions, currency devaluation risks, and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - The active trading by Chinese investors in the domestic market provides some support for prices, with retail demand and physical purchases potentially being released during price corrections [8] - Investors are advised to remain rational and focus on global macroeconomic trends, monetary policy movements, and geopolitical risks to navigate market volatility and seek potential investment opportunities [8]

Market Overview - Asian stocks declined, following Wall Street's downward trend, due to ongoing trade tensions, uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, and heavy selling in precious metals [1] - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant declines, with gold dropping over 5% and silver nearly 8% [2] - Oil prices fell nearly 5% amid reports of U.S. and Iran readiness to negotiate an agreement to ease tensions [2] Chinese Market - Chinese and Hong Kong markets experienced sharp declines, with China Vanke warning of an 11.8 billion net loss for 2025 and BYD reporting a 30.1% year-on-year drop in vehicle sales for January [3] - The Shanghai Composite index fell 2.48% to 4,015.75, while the Hang Seng index dropped 2.23% to 26,775.57 [3] - Both China Vanke and BYD shares fell more than 4% in Shanghai [3] Economic Data - China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was reported at 49.3, below forecasts, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell into contraction [4] - A private gauge indicated that Chinese manufacturing activity continued to expand in January [4] Japanese Market - The Nikkei average decreased by 1.25% to 52,655.18, reversing early gains, while the broader Topix index settled 0.85% lower at 3,536.13 [5] - Major companies like SoftBank Group, Advantest, Disco Corp, and Lasertec saw declines ranging from 3.8% to 14% [5] - Investors overlooked a private-sector survey indicating Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in about three and a half years [6] South Korean Market - The Kospi average plunged 5.26% to 4,949.67, ending a four-session winning streak, with major companies like Hyundai Motor and Samsung Electronics falling between 4% and 9% [7] - The Korea Exchange issued a sell-side circuit breaker for 5 minutes during the trading session [7] Australian and New Zealand Markets - Australian markets closed lower, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling 1.02% to 8,778.60, driven down by financials and materials amid rate hike concerns [7] - New Zealand's S&P/NZX-50 index finished marginally lower at 13,412.44 [8] U.S. Market Influence - U.S. stocks ended lower, with the dollar index climbing and Treasury yields surging after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, leading to a hawkish shift in U.S. monetary policy [8][9] - Warsh is perceived as skeptical of loose monetary policy and has previously criticized the Fed for underestimating inflation risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare event occurred in the market where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs from E Fund and Jiashi, experienced a collective surge, with many products hitting the daily limit up [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Multiple LOF products announced suspension of trading after a week of rapid price increases, indicating a strong market reaction [2][8]. - Key LOF products that hit the daily limit include E Fund Oil LOF, Jiashi Oil LOF, and several others, with price increases around 10% [2][3]. - The WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase, the highest since September 2025 [5]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - High premium rates and strong market sentiment contributed to the surge in oil-related LOFs, with investors utilizing the "off-market subscription + on-market sale" arbitrage mechanism [4][6]. - The trading volume for the oil LOF products was significant, with some experiencing a turnover rate of 38.33% [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - Several fund companies announced collective suspensions of resource-related LOFs to warn investors about the risks associated with high trading premiums [8][9]. - Starting January 30, the daily subscription limit for certain oil LOFs was drastically reduced to as low as 2 yuan, indicating tighter controls on fund inflows [6][10]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that the high premium rates could lead to significant losses for investors if international oil prices decline or if there is a withdrawal of arbitrage funds [8][9]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious due to the potential for rapid price corrections [9].

The S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent, recovering part of its 2.1 per cent decline on Tuesday, which marked its worst day since October. The benchmark moved closer to the record high it had touched earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced about 200 points, or 0.4 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1 per cent in early trade, AP reported.Markets found some support after Trump, speaking before business and government leaders in Europe, said he would not use force to take “the piece of ...

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and reporter on commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York [1] - He has covered every futures market traded in the U.S. at various times during his career [1] - Jim is the owner of "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets," which provides analytical, educational, and trading advisory services [2] Group 2 - He has worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also served as a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He holds a degree in journalism and economics from Iowa State University [2]

Market Overview - The BSE benchmark declined by 2,185.77 points or 2.54% last week, indicating a negative trend in Indian equity markets due to heightened risk aversion from renewed US tariff threats and rising geopolitical tensions [1][3] Company Valuations - Reliance Industries experienced a significant market valuation drop of Rs 1,58,532.91 crore, bringing its total valuation to Rs 19,96,445.69 crore, making it the most valued firm despite the decline [3] - HDFC Bank's valuation decreased by Rs 96,153.61 crore to Rs 14,44,150.26 crore [3] - Bharti Airtel's market valuation fell by Rs 45,274.72 crore to Rs 11,55,987.81 crore [2][3] - Bajaj Finance's valuation plunged by Rs 18,729.68 crore to Rs 5,97,700.75 crore [2][3] - Larsen & Toubro's market capitalization dropped by Rs 18,728.53 crore to Rs 5,53,912.03 crore, while TCS declined by Rs 15,232.14 crore to Rs 11,60,682.48 crore [3] - Infosys saw a decrease in market capitalization by Rs 10,760.59 crore to Rs 6,70,875 crore [3] Gainers in the Market - ICICI Bank's valuation increased by Rs 34,901.81 crore to Rs 10,03,674.95 crore, marking it as a notable gainer [3] - Hindustan Unilever's market capitalization rose by Rs 6,097.19 crore to Rs 5,57,734.23 crore [3] - State Bank of India's valuation edged higher by Rs 599.99 crore to Rs 9,23,061.76 crore [3] Overall Market Impact - The combined market valuation of seven of the top-10 most valued firms eroded by Rs 3,63,412.18 crore last week, with Reliance Industries being the largest contributor to this decline [3]

Market Valuation Changes - The combined market valuation of seven of the top-10 most valued firms decreased by ₹3,63,412.18 crore last week, with Reliance Industries being the largest contributor to this decline [1] - The BSE benchmark index fell by 2,185.77 points, representing a decline of 2.54 percent [1] Company-Specific Valuation Changes - Reliance Industries' market valuation decreased by ₹1,58,532.91 crore, bringing its total to ₹19,96,445.69 crore [3] - HDFC Bank's valuation fell by ₹96,153.61 crore to ₹14,44,150.26 crore [3] - Bharti Airtel's market valuation dropped by ₹45,274.72 crore to ₹11,55,987.81 crore [3] - Bajaj Finance's valuation declined by ₹18,729.68 crore to ₹5,97,700.75 crore [3] - Larsen & Toubro's market capitalization decreased by ₹18,728.53 crore to ₹5,53,912.03 crore [3] - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) saw a decline of ₹15,232.14 crore, bringing its valuation to ₹11,60,682.48 crore [3] - Infosys' market capitalization edged lower by ₹10,760.59 crore to ₹6,70,875 crore [4] Gainers in Market Valuation - ICICI Bank's market valuation increased by ₹34,901.81 crore to ₹10,03,674.95 crore [4] - Hindustan Unilever's valuation rose by ₹6,097.19 crore to ₹5,57,734.23 crore [4] - State Bank of India's market capitalization increased by ₹599.99 crore to ₹9,23,061.76 crore [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The Indian equity markets ended the week negatively, influenced by increased risk aversion due to renewed US tariff threats and rising geopolitical tensions [2]