Vi e w p o i n t | 23 Feb 2026 01:51:54 ET │ 14 pages US Equity Strategy Q4 Results Support Our Constructive Fundamental Case for '26 CITI'S TAKE We maintain a constructive fundamental outlook for 2026, supported by positive Q4 '25 earnings trends and an accelerating sales trajectory across market capitalizations. While '26 consensus estimates for the index remain largely unchanged, this is better than typical for this point in the year. Our above-consensus 2026 earnings projection of $320 is supported by o ...

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are experiencing strong momentum, with investors shifting focus from "AI fatigue" to economic resilience, supported by positive economic reports [1] - Major indexes are showing broad gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.84%, the Nasdaq Composite up 1.20%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding approximately 315 points or 0.63% [2] Market Breadth - Market breadth is positive, indicating a return of the "buy the dip" mentality, with small-cap stocks also participating in the rally as the Russell 2000 index rises 1.2% [3] Economic Data - December housing starts surged 6.2% to an annualized rate of 1.404 million, outperforming expectations, while building permits rose 4.2% to a nine-month high [4] - January manufacturing production increased by 0.6%, the largest rise in nearly a year, and capital goods orders grew by 0.6%, doubling the forecasted gain [5] Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its January policy meeting, with traders looking for insights on potential rate cuts [6] - Nvidia's earnings report is highly anticipated, as it will provide critical guidance for the AI sector [7] Corporate News - Amazon shares rose 2% after Bill Ackman's Pershing Square increased its stake in the company [8] - Nvidia gained 2% following a multi-year AI infrastructure partnership with Meta Platforms [8] - Garmin's shares soared 16% after exceeding Q4 earnings estimates and providing a fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $7.9 billion [8] - Mister Car Wash jumped 16% on news of being taken private in a deal valued at approximately $3.1 billion [11] - Madison Square Garden Sports climbed 15% as it explores a potential spin-off of the New York Knicks and New York Rangers [11] - General Mills fell 7% after cutting its profit forecast due to consumer concerns [11] - Genuine Parts plummeted 14.6% following a disappointing earnings report and a complex plan to split into two entities by 2027 [11]

Lafayette College CIO Krishna Memani says we've been waiting for a soft landing for three years and it's finally arriving. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: https://tinyurl.com/ysu5b8a9 Visit http://www.bloomberg.com for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more. Connect with Bloomberg Television on: X: https://twitter.com/BloombergTV F ...

Is software debt. What software is not that. I think if you really have to define what that means in that context, it has software come down a lot.Absolutely. Software of going away as a service. Absolutely not.So the valuations and the multiples were too high. And, you know, because the terminal value is being questioned, it is appropriate to kind of take them down. And it's not that the business itself is going away.Revenue is going to be zero tomorrow. It's just that the valuations that people are willin ...

When I say the benchmark revision that goes to last March was almost 900,000 down. There are other revisions from the birth death model that come in the months after that. By December of last year, the downward revision was over a million jobs.Yeah. So now we got the best possible outcome today. We knew these revisions were coming and they're going to talk about what's behind them.But to see the most recent readings, we've got some lift in the payrolls in January is just one month. But we got some lift and ...

Core Insights - The Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS) has shown a 3% increase at the start of 2026 after a 7% gain in 2025, but it has underperformed the broader market while maintaining a low annual fee of 0.084% [1] Group 1: Fund Performance and Composition - FDIS provides concentrated exposure to consumer discretionary stocks, with 97.7% of its portfolio in this sector, and nearly 40% of its assets are in Amazon (21%) and Tesla (18.28%) [2] - The performance of FDIS is significantly influenced by the contrasting stock movements of Amazon, which is up nearly 6% year-to-date, and Tesla, which has declined by 3.75% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending growth is projected to slow to 2% in 2026 from a historical average of 2.7%, which is critical for consumer discretionary stocks as they rely heavily on discretionary income [5] - The probability of a recession has decreased from 32% to 23.5% recently, indicating a potential soft landing for the economy, which is a positive sign for FDIS investors [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Challenges - Tesla's earnings have faced a significant decline, with a 63.8% drop in annual earnings per share in 2025, falling from $2.32 to $0.84, and a substantial miss in Q1 2025 earnings estimates [7]

Top economist David Rosenberg has issued a stark warning about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, contrasting a robust headline GDP figure with deteriorating industrial data that he argues signals recessionary weakness comparable to the 2009 financial crisis.The Industrial RealityIn a post on X on Monday, the president of Rosenberg Research highlighted a massive disconnect between official government growth data and on-the-ground industrial activity.While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) r ...

Economic Outlook - Most economists expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2026, driven by the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" Act and increased AI spending [2][5] - A Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey indicates an average GDP growth rate of 1.8% for 2026, with inflation projected to slow to a 2.6% annual rate by Q4 2026 [6] - JPMorgan forecasts a growth rate of around 3% in the first half of 2026, tapering to between 1% and 2% later in the year, with inflation expected to decrease from over 3% to near 2% by year-end [7] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is anticipated to remain elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising questions about the feasibility of a "soft landing" [4][5] - Wells Fargo suggests that a softer labor market and potential tariff relief could help lower inflation, although it is still expected to stay above the Fed's target [9] - Analysts note that while economic growth may start strong in early 2026, it could slow later due to rising tariffs and tighter immigration policies [9][8] Market Sentiment - Despite economists' optimism, public sentiment reflects uncertainty, with a predictions market indicating a 35% chance of a recession by the end of 2026 [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on December 25, 2025, for Christmas Day, following a record-setting session on Christmas Eve [1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time closing highs on December 24, 2025 [1][2] Market Performance - On December 24, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to close at 6,932.05, marking a new all-time closing record [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.6% to finish at 48,731.16, also achieving a new closing high [3] - The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2% to 23,613.31, driven by strong performances in the artificial intelligence sector [3] - The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies gained 0.3% to 2,548.08 [3] Economic Indicators - Positive economic data included a revised Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.3% and cooling labor cost figures, supporting the narrative of a successful "soft landing" for the economy [4] - Falling unemployment claims indicated a healthy labor market, contributing to market confidence [4] - The Federal Reserve's earlier interest rate cuts have provided liquidity, supporting market valuations [4] Corporate News - Dynavax Technologies saw a surge in shares following Sanofi's announcement to acquire the vaccine maker [6] - Nike's stock rose 4.6% after Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased nearly $3 million worth of shares [6] - Nvidia shares fell 0.3% due to reports of paused testing on an Intel production process [6] - Novo Nordisk climbed 7.3% after FDA approval of its GLP-1 pill for obesity treatment [6] - Huntington Ingalls Industries shares rose 0.3% following U.S. government plans for new battleships [6] - ServiceNow shares fell 1.5% after announcing the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion [6] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services surged 5.8% amid potential acquisition evaluations [6] - BP agreed to sell a 65% stake in its Castrol lubricants business for approximately $6 billion [6] - Micron Technology is anticipated to show significant growth in its upcoming fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report [6] Market Outlook - The "Santa Claus Rally" period is expected to continue into 2026, often seen as a bullish indicator [5] - The U.S. stock markets will also be closed on January 1, 2026, for New Year's Day [6] - Analysts are monitoring economic data and Federal Reserve statements regarding interest rate policy, with expectations for additional rate cuts in the new year [7] - The S&P 500 has gained over 17% year-to-date in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains [8]

Scott Croniner joins us from uh city. He's US equity strategist. Scott, not to ask how much you can deadlift, but feel free to offer, you know, [laughter] >> let's just say, Kelly, I can lift my weight, but that's about it.>> Which is looking like a little less than that. All right. So, you do think a more dovish Fed is is a plank of this bull market story.>> Yeah, it's it's kind of interesting. We just published a note that hit a few minutes ago that I I titled uh the data is dead, long live the data. And ...