Summary of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) 2026 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) - **Date of Conference**: February 18, 2026 - **Key Speakers**: Ghislain Houle (CFO), Jamie Lockwood (VP of IR) Key Points Financial Performance - **Q4 2025 Performance**: - EPS growth of 14%, the best in the industry [5] - Operating Ratio (OR) improved by 250 basis points [5] - Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) increased by 3% [5] - **Full Year 2025 Performance**: - EPS growth of 7% despite only 1% volume growth [6] - OR improved by 120 basis points [6] - **2026 Guidance**: - Expecting flattish volume growth and EPS to slightly exceed volume growth [7] - Anticipated effective tax rate of 25%-26% [9] Industry Challenges - **Macroeconomic Environment**: - Described as weak with industrial production being slightly positive to flat [6] - Uncertainty regarding tariffs and USMCA impacts [7] - **Sector-Specific Headwinds**: - Forest products and metals/minerals sectors facing significant challenges due to high tariffs (45% for forest products, 50% for aluminum and steel) [8] - Capital envelope reduced by CAD 500 million, impacting capital credits [8] - Other income expected to decline compared to 2025 [10] Operational Strategies - **Cost Management**: - Focus on solid cost management to offset headwinds [5] - Initiatives to improve efficiency and productivity, including automation and consolidation of treasury and accounting [10][11] - **Volume Management**: - Positive outlook for grain movement due to a strong Canadian grain crop [24] - Domestic intermodal services performing well [24] - Challenges in forest products and metals/minerals sectors [25] Market Position and Growth Opportunities - **Network Strength**: - CN's diversified network provides a competitive advantage, particularly in accessing natural resources [76] - Rupert port's capacity for expansion is highlighted as a strategic asset [76] - **Partnerships and Expansion**: - Emphasis on growing volumes through customer partnerships and facility developments along rail lines [90] - Potential for growth in the BC Northeast due to natural gas opportunities [39] Future Outlook - **Earnings Growth Potential**: - Confidence in achieving low double-digit EPS growth under a supportive economy [62] - Current stock price viewed as undervalued, presenting a buying opportunity for investors [63] - **Merger and Acquisition Landscape**: - Concerns about potential mergers in the industry and their impact on CN's competitive position [78] - Commitment to protecting CN's franchise and shareholder value amidst industry changes [80] Conclusion - Canadian National Railway Company is navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment while focusing on cost management and operational efficiency. The company remains optimistic about its growth potential, particularly in the grain sector and through strategic partnerships, while also preparing to address potential industry disruptions from mergers.

Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) stock rose Wednesday as investors weighed a notable insider purchase against ongoing concerns around tariffs, China demand, and a slower-than-expected turnaround.Tim Cook Steps Up Stake, Signaling ConfidenceNike stock extended its recent momentum after regulatory filings showed Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook increased his personal stake in the athletic apparel maker.A Monday filing revealed Cook bought 50,000 shares at an average price of $58.97, lifting his total holdings to 105, ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike is undergoing a turnaround strategy under CEO Elliott Hill, focusing on regaining growth and market share while addressing inventory issues and enhancing wholesale relationships [1][2]. Financial Expectations - Analysts expect Nike to report earnings per share of 38 cents and revenue of $12.22 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2026 [6]. Business Performance - In the fiscal first quarter, improvements were noted in wholesale, running, and North America, but challenges remain in the China segment and direct business, which are expected to persist into the new year [2]. - Nike's stock has dropped over 11% this year, indicating market concerns about its performance [1]. Impact of Tariffs - Nike anticipates tariffs to cost approximately $1.5 billion, impacting its gross margin by 1.2 percentage points in fiscal 2026, an increase from earlier estimates of $1 billion and 0.75 percentage points [3]. Leadership Changes - The company has made leadership changes to streamline operations, including the departure of Chief Commercial Officer Craig Williams, as part of its "Win Now" strategy aimed at growth [4]. Strategic Partnerships - Nike has reported a strong start in its partnership with Kim Kardashian's shapewear brand, NikeSKIMS, which has received a positive response [5].

Core Insights - RH reported mixed results for Q3 fiscal 2025, with adjusted earnings missing estimates while net revenues exceeded expectations and increased year-over-year [1][4][8] Revenue Performance - Adjusted EPS was $1.71, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.13 by 19.7%, down from $2.48 in the same quarter last year [4] - Net revenues reached $883.8 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $882.9 million by 0.1% and reflecting an 8.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenue from the RH segment grew 8.8% year-over-year to $835.8 million, while Waterworks revenues rose 9.9% to $48 million [4] Market Context - RH demonstrated resilience with solid revenue growth despite one of the weakest housing markets in decades and ongoing tariff-related disruptions [2] - The company achieved an 18% revenue increase over a two-year period, highlighting its strong market position amid challenging conditions [5] Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin contracted by 40 basis points to 44.1% [6] - Adjusted operating margin decreased by 340 basis points year-over-year to 11.6% [6] - Adjusted EBITDA fell 7.6% year-over-year to $155.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin contracting 320 basis points to 17.6% [6] Financial Position - As of Nov. 1, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $43.1 million, up from $30.4 million at the end of fiscal 2024 [7] - Merchandise inventories were valued at $875 million, down from $1.02 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [7] - The company ended the quarter with a net debt of $2.4 billion and a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.1x [7] Future Guidance - For Q4 fiscal 2025, RH expects net revenues to grow between 7% and 8% year-over-year [10] - Adjusted operating margin is projected to be between 12.5% and 13.5%, up from 11.3% in the prior-year quarter [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to be between 18.7% and 19.6%, an increase from 17.1% reported in the previous year [10] Revised Fiscal Guidance - RH has lowered its fiscal 2025 revenue growth guidance to a range of 9% to 9.2%, down from the previous expectation of 9% to 11% [11] - Adjusted operating margin is now expected to be between 11.6% and 11.9%, down from the prior range of 13% to 14% [11] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to be between 17.6% and 18%, reduced from the previous expectation of 19% to 20% [11] - The company still anticipates free cash flow to be between $250 million and $300 million [12]

Core Insights - Amazon and Shein are in direct competition in the e-commerce market, with Shein gradually taking market share from Amazon since its entry in 2015 [1][2] - Shein's growth is now challenged by new tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exception, which has increased its costs and prices [3][4] - Despite these challenges, Shein reported a 20% increase in global revenues to $37 billion for 2024, although pre-tax profits fell by 13% to $1.3 billion [4] E-commerce Competition - Shein has been successful in offering a wide range of products at low prices, prompting Amazon to launch Amazon Haul in 2024 to attract budget-conscious consumers [2] - Amazon remains the leading e-commerce platform, with a net revenue of $638 billion for fiscal 2024, significantly surpassing Shein [13][15] - Amazon's robust infrastructure and ability to adapt to market changes provide it with a competitive advantage over Shein [16] New Market Entry - Shein is entering the U.S. book market through a partnership with Alibris, offering over 100,000 titles, including affordable textbooks [6][7] - This move is significant as it addresses the rising costs of education, with students spending an average of $1,220 per year on textbooks [11][12] - The partnership with Alibris allows Shein to improve delivery times and reduce shipping costs, potentially enhancing profit margins [7] Economic Context - The cost of attending a four-year university in the U.S. has more than doubled since the early 2000s, with tuition increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 4.04% [9][10] - While Shein's textbook offerings won't solve the student debt crisis, they provide a more affordable option in a market dominated by high-priced academic publishers [12]

Core Insights - Stellantis is investing $13 billion in US manufacturing to revitalize struggling American car brands after experiencing a $2.7 billion loss in the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The company aims to launch five new vehicles and refresh nearly 20 models over the next four years while increasing manufacturing capacity by 50% [1] Financial Performance - After three years of record profits, Stellantis faced a significant decline in 2024 due to price hikes and product missteps, particularly in the US market [2] - The company had previously promised to save $5 billion through synergies but exceeded that target, achieving $10 billion in savings [4] Market Strategy - New leadership is focused on rebuilding US brands under pressure from high costs and tariffs, with a particular emphasis on the importance of the Ram and Jeep brands [3][11] - Stellantis has lost 5% market share in the US over five years, falling behind competitors like Hyundai and Honda [11] Production and Investment - The $13 billion investment includes significant allocations for US factories, with $400 million for a new midsize Ram pickup and $230 million for two large SUVs in Michigan [12] - The Belvidere, Illinois plant will resume production of the Jeep Cherokee, which is crucial for regaining market share [11][12] Tariffs and Cost Management - Stellantis faces approximately $1.7 billion in tariffs for the full year, prompting the need to increase domestic production to mitigate costs [13][14] - The company aims to build half of its sales volume domestically to avoid the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles [14] Product Development - Stellantis is redesigning its EV platform to accommodate gas and hybrid vehicles, which may reduce expenses associated with previous electric-only designs [18][20] - The company has struggled with product appeal, as newer models have not resonated with the same customer base as their predecessors [10][21] Market Positioning - Stellantis lacks entry-level models, with the cheapest Jeep starting around $28,000, making it challenging to attract price-sensitive consumers [22][23] - The company is navigating the complexities of maintaining competitive pricing while managing production costs and tariffs [24]

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) is preparing to announce its first-quarter earnings, with shares trading slightly lower ahead of the announcement [1] Outlook And Near-Term Setup - Analyst Nik Modi forecasts organic sales growth of 1.4%, which rounds to 1% under P&G's whole-number reporting, aligning with buy-side expectations [2] - Modi anticipates a slightly lower bottom line but expects P&G to meet consensus, noting that growth has remained slow since early October, with a significant drop of 16% in the week ending October 6 [3][4] Macro, Regional Trends, And Tariffs - Management's focus is on reaccelerating global market growth, which is currently around 2% to 2.5%, slower than the last twelve months but still acceptable [5] - North America is tracking 2% to 3% growth with limited volume, while Europe appears flat, and China is facing challenges but moving towards a positive trajectory [6] - The impact of tariffs has been reduced from $1 billion to $700–$750 million, with limited effects expected on P&L after this reduction [6][7] - Overall, a slow fiscal start is anticipated, with the first quarter expected to be near the low end of P&G's guidance, amid ongoing macro uncertainty [7]

Core Viewpoint - General Motors has demonstrated resilience in its operations despite challenges from tariffs, raising its guidance for the fourth quarter while managing to maintain a strong vehicle portfolio and market share [2][4][16]. Financial Performance - The company reported better-than-expected results on both revenue and earnings, although profits were lower than the same quarter last year due to tariff impacts [2][4]. - Tariff costs are estimated to be between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion for the full year, which is a reduction from previous expectations [5][6]. Tariff Impact and Mitigation - Recent announcements from the Trump administration regarding tariff offsets are expected to help maintain competitiveness in U.S. manufacturing, with a 3.75% MSRP offset remaining in place [6][7]. - The company is focused on overcoming tariff challenges and aims to return to an 8% to 10% market margin in North America [7]. Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy - General Motors took a $1.6 billion impairment charge related to its EV business, indicating that while 40% of EVs were variable profit positive, they did not achieve EBIT profitability in the third quarter [8][10]. - The company is reevaluating its EV capacity in light of lower demand forecasts, particularly with the cessation of the $7,500 tax credit, which has led to a restructuring charge [9][14]. Production and Market Share - The internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle segment is performing well, with over 17% market share, the highest for a third quarter in recent years [16]. - The company plans to invest $4 billion in capital over the next few years to expand production capacity in the U.S. while maintaining capital discipline [17][18].

Retail Sales Overview - U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August to $732 billion, marking the third consecutive monthly gain, and exceeded the consensus estimate of 0.3% [4][10] - Year-over-year, retail sales increased by 5% in August, with July's figures also revised upward to 0.6% [4] - The growth in retail sales was driven by strong demand across various sectors, including autos, clothing, sporting goods, and restaurants [10] Consumer Spending Insights - Despite inflationary pressures and concerns over the economy, consumer demand remains robust, indicating a willingness to spend [2][6] - Sales at auto dealerships increased by 0.5%, while clothing stores saw a rise of 1%, and restaurant sales grew by 0.7% [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Four retail stocks have been identified as having growth potential: Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS), Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY), Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN), and Wayfair Inc. (W) [2][10] - These stocks have experienced positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days and carry a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) [3][10] Company-Specific Highlights - **Dutch Bros Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 38.8% for the next year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 15.3% over the past 60 days [11] - **Casey's General Stores, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.7% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 1.3% [13] - **Urban Outfitters, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.2% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 3.4% [15] - **Wayfair Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of over 100% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of more than 100% [17]

Group 1 - Apple is expected to announce fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on July 31, with estimated earnings of approximately $1.42 per share, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year, and revenues projected to rise by 3.3% year-over-year to $88.6 billion, primarily driven by the services sector [2] - Hardware sales, particularly iPhone sales, are anticipated to slow down ahead of the iPhone 17 launch in September, although new budget-friendly iPhone 16e and upgraded M4-powered MacBooks may provide some offsetting gains [2] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $3.1 trillion, with total revenue over the past twelve months reaching $400 billion, including $127 billion in operating profits and a net income of $97 billion [4] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on Apple is being monitored, with CEO Tim Cook previously indicating potential additional expenses of up to $900 million due to tariffs during the June quarter [3] - Historical data shows that Apple has had 20 earnings data points over the past five years, with positive one-day post-earnings returns observed about 40% of the time, increasing to 50% over the last three years [6] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 5.3%, while the median of the negative returns is -1.6% [6]