Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing whether the economic environment that supported nearly 25% annual gains in U.S. stocks over the past two years has significantly deteriorated [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about signs of economic slowdown, with major stock indices experiencing declines due to escalating trade tensions and the imposition of tariffs [2][3]. - The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, has dropped 7.5% since mid-February, while small-cap stocks and bank shares have also been severely impacted [4][12]. - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index saw its largest monthly decline since 2021, indicating weakening consumer sentiment [8]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by Trump, including a 25% tariff on major trading partners, have led to increased uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their positions [3][5]. - Some businesses reported that the tariffs have resulted in higher product prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff policy could reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2025, a lesser impact compared to other countries like Canada [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 has declined about 5% from its historical high on February 19, with small-cap Russell 2000 down 9.4% since late January [12]. - Despite the market turmoil, defensive sectors like consumer staples have shown resilience, with Procter & Gamble's stock rising 0.4% during the week [12]. - The bond market has seen a strong rebound, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recording a 2.7% return year-to-date, driven by price increases and interest income [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the bond market's recovery, citing persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may limit the potential for significant interest rate cuts [16]. - The future trajectory of bonds will depend on inflation, interest rate policies, and the evolving trade stance of the Trump administration [17].

文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周市场较为混乱， COMEX铜价周初再度对关税进行定价，主因特朗普强调对加拿大和墨西哥的关税会如期落地、并且开展针对 铜关税的2 3 2调查，再次引发了市场对关税定价的热情，但是周中美国的经济数据表现疲软，美债收益率应声回落，市场定价经济增 长放缓的预期较为强烈，金铜双双承压回落。 1、上周金铜显著下行 贵金属方面，上周COMEX黄金下跌2.79%，白银下跌4.39%；沪金2504合约下跌1.8%，沪银2504合约下跌3.07%。主要 工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.6%、-0.43%。 2、关税调查启动，但宏观走弱令铜价承压 上周COMEX铜价宽幅震荡，周初一度走出反弹，但随后再次回落。上周市场较为混乱，COMEX铜价周初再度对关税进行定 价，主因特朗普强调对加拿大和墨西哥的关税会如期落地、并且开展针对铜关税的232调查，再次引发了市场对关税定价的热 情，但是周中美国的经济数据表现疲软，美债收益率应声回落，市场定价经济增长放缓的预期较为强烈，铜价承压回落，并 且维持震荡格局。 3、衰退预期再起，金价承压回落 本周美国衰退预期再起，主要因近期美 ...