Core Insights - The warning from Federal Reserve official Barr highlights the potential economic slowdown and rising inflation due to supply chain disruptions related to tariffs [1][4][7] - Small businesses play a crucial role in the supply chain and overall economy, but they are particularly vulnerable to disruptions due to limited resources and access to credit [3][5][6] Supply Chain Disruption Risks - Supply chain disruptions can lead to raw material shortages, production delays, and increased costs, significantly impacting profitability, especially for small businesses [3][4] - Small businesses are more susceptible to these challenges due to their limited financial resources and reliance on a narrow supplier and customer network [5][6] Economic Growth and Inflation Pressures - Supply chain disruptions may result in a dual pressure of slowing economic growth and rising inflation, posing significant challenges to the U.S. economy [4][6] - Rising costs from supply chain issues could be passed on to consumers, increasing price levels and potentially leading to reduced production or layoffs [4][6] Importance and Vulnerability of Small Businesses - Small businesses are essential for providing specialized inputs that are not easily sourced elsewhere, making their stable operation vital for supply chain integrity [5][6] - The limited access to credit for small businesses further restricts their ability to navigate crises, increasing the risk of closures and further supply chain disruptions [6] Uncertainty in Trade Policy - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies increases operational costs and unpredictability for businesses, complicating long-term production and investment planning [7] - This uncertainty may lead to delayed investments and hiring, negatively affecting economic growth and stability [7]

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：在经济增长放缓的情况下提前加息可能会抑制消费和资本支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr highlights the potential risks to the U.S. economy from trade policy adjustments, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions that could lead to both economic slowdown and increased inflationary pressures [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - Despite the current robustness of the U.S. economy, trade policy changes could trigger significant supply chain volatility that warrants close attention [1] - Barr emphasizes that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a critical role in the economic system, serving as essential nodes in supply chains and providing specialized production factors [1] - Historical experiences indicate that supply chain disruptions can have multiplier effects, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, where shortages led to prolonged industry shutdowns and persistent price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Risks to SMEs - SMEs are particularly vulnerable to risks due to limited access to credit and insufficient financial reserves, making them more susceptible to operational pressures in the event of supply chain interruptions [1] - If trade policy uncertainties continue, similar scenarios to those experienced during the pandemic could reoccur, potentially weakening economic growth momentum and exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - While Barr did not specify direct policy measures, he stressed the importance of policy transparency and stable expectations, urging that trade policies should consider their impact on microeconomic entities, especially SMEs [2] - The current economic landscape in the U.S. is characterized by dual challenges of inflationary pressures and slowing growth, reflecting concerns about the spillover effects of trade policies [2] - The trajectory of this policy debate may significantly influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions [2]

美联储巴尔：供应链中断或导致通胀上升 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储巴尔表示，美国经济基础稳固，但他警告称，与关税相关的供应链中断可 能导致经济增长放缓和通胀上升。巴尔强调了小企业的重要性，以及它们在供应链和整体经济中的作 用。他表示，贸易政策给前景蒙上了阴影，增加了不确定性。对小企业来说，潜在的供应链中断"尤其 严重"，部分原因是它们获得信贷的机会较少。他补充道，小企业通常提供不易从其他地方获得的专业 投入，而企业倒闭可能会进一步扰乱供应链。 ...

泰国财政部长：由于关税措施，未来两年经济增长可能放缓。 ...

美联储副主席Philip Jefferson表示，关税及相关不确定性可能在今年减缓经济增长并推高通胀，但货币 政策已做好在必要时作出应对的准备。Jefferson强调政府政策方面的不确定性上升，并表示目前尚不清 楚关税是否会对价格产生短期或更持久的影响。他下调了对今年经济增长的预期，但仍预计经济将继续 扩张。"如果目前已宣布的关税上调持续存在，它们可能会阻碍通胀放缓的进程，并至少在短期内推高 通胀，"Jefferson周三在纽约联储举办的一场会议上的预先准备讲话中表示。(新浪财经) ...

金十数据5月13日讯，欧洲复兴开发银行表示，美国提高关税将削弱欧洲、中亚、中东和北非许多国家 的经济增长，即使某些国家对美国的出口依赖度不高。由于德国等主要欧洲经济体受到美国关税冲击， 这些国家对其商品和服务的需求也将间接减少，进一步加剧直接损失。欧洲复兴开发银行已将其运营所 覆盖的国家的经济增长预测从此前的3.2%下调至3%。欧洲复兴开发银行首席经济学家Beata Javorcik表 示："尽管要全面评估新关税对宏观经济的影响仍需时间，但可以肯定的是，我们所关注的地区已经进 入了一个不确定性上升、增长放缓的新阶段。" 欧洲复兴开发银行下调运营覆盖地区的经济增长预期 ...

美联储理事库格勒：贸易政策正在转变，但仍可能导致物价上涨和经济增长放缓。 ...

美联储理事：关税政策可能导致美经济增长放缓 智通财经5月10日电，据外媒9日报道，美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示，特朗普政府的关税政策可能会在 今年导致美国经济增长放缓和通胀上升。 (央视新闻) ...

美联储威廉姆斯：预计经济增长将大幅放缓，通胀和失业率将更高。 ...