Transaction Analysis - A specific on-chain transaction involving a "weird frog gif" cost approximately $840, including the burning of 613.47 thousand sats [1] - The transaction burned 1.859 thousand outputs of 330 sats each, sending UTXOs to unspendable addresses [1] Impact on Bitcoin Network - The burning of UTXOs harms the UTXO set by creating 1.859 thousand outputs that will never be spent [1] - HODLers benefit from a 0.000000029% deflation due to these burns [2] Comparison with OP_RETURN - This type of spam transaction is costly for the perpetrators, unlike OP_RETURN transactions [2] - OP_RETURN allows storing larger images for a lower cost, such as $120, without burning any UTXOs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's likely first female prime minister is expected to influence the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy, particularly in delaying interest rate hikes due to her expansionist economic policies [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies - Takaichi is the only candidate advocating for significant government spending and a loose monetary policy, aiming to reflate demand and the broader economy [1][3]. - She emphasized the need for demand-driven inflation, where rising wages would stimulate demand and lead to moderate price increases that benefit corporate profits [4]. Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - Analysts predict that Takaichi's leadership will likely result in the BOJ refraining from raising interest rates in the near term, particularly during the upcoming meeting on October 30 [4][5]. - There is a possibility that the BOJ may adopt a more cautious approach to rate hikes, potentially delaying any increases until early next year [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Prior to Takaichi's victory, markets had priced in over a 60% probability of a rate hike this month, driven by sustained inflation above target levels for over three years [7].

China's Economic Trends - China's industrial profits surged 20% year-on-year in August, partly due to a low base effect from a 17% decline a year ago [4][5] - Campaigns to tackle overcapacity and excessive competition are showing results, particularly in large equipment manufacturing, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors [4][6] - Official manufacturing PMI is expected to contract for the sixth consecutive month, while non-manufacturing is expected to expand at a slower pace [7][8] - Ministry of Transport forecasts about 27 billion travels during the Golden Week, with a 130% increase in holiday bookings [9][10] - Analysts caution to watch per capita spending during Golden Week to assess consumption downgrading [10] Market and Investment Strategies - Global money managers are venturing back into China, with foreign inflows rising across asset classes [1][3] - Liquidity from savings, money markets, and fixed income is driving decoupling of macro from markets in China [14] - Optimism surrounds Chinese stocks due to policy tailwinds and the push for AI chip substitution [15] - International capital investment to China is expected to increase in the coming months, driven by diversification from crowded U S assets [16] - Domestic developed chips are making progress but still lag in performance and energy efficiency compared to established leaders like NVIDIA [18] - Retail investors account for 90% of daily trading volume in the Chinese market, compared to 20% in the U S [26] Geopolitical and Trade Relations - India refused to accept the Asia Cup trophy due to ongoing political conflict with Pakistan [2][46][47][48] - India views Pakistan's closer relationship with the U S with concern, particularly regarding trade deals and the purchase of Russian crude [50][51][52] - The U S has agreed to help develop Pakistan's untapped oil reserves, a move viewed with concern by India [60][61] Hong Kong's Economic Challenges - New World Development posted a second straight year of losses, exceeding $2 billion, due to weak property demand and debt pressures [78][79] - New World's strategy focuses on selling residential properties for cash to pay down debt and seeking outside investors [82][83] - Beijing's tightening grip on Hong Kong's economy and politics is reducing the power of tycoon families [84]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Monetary Policy in China**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its monetary policy stance during the Q3 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, indicating no significant changes from Q2. The economy is no longer described as "showing positive momentum" due to recent softening data. Expectations for policy rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in Q4 remain, contingent on further economic weakening [1][4][10]. Core Insights - **Government Bond Yields**: Long-term yields on Chinese Government Bonds (CGB) are rising, driven by a bond-to-equity rotation and market expectations of increased taxes on CGB investments. The 30-year and 10-year CGB yields are projected to continue climbing [2][10]. - **Industrial Profit Growth**: Industrial profits in China increased by 8.0% sequentially in August, following a 3.7% rise in July. This growth is particularly notable in raw material sectors like steel, suggesting the effectiveness of government "anti-involution" policies. However, industrial revenue has remained largely unchanged, indicating challenges in combating deflation [4][9][10]. Additional Considerations - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors express a generally positive outlook on China's technology and innovation in the medium term, but they remain concerned about deflation, corporate profitability, and household consumption in the short term. There is mixed sentiment regarding the direction of the Renminbi (RMB) and long-end CGB yields [10][11]. - **Deflationary Pressures**: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted that lower costs contributed to improved profits in August, emphasizing ongoing difficulties in addressing deflation within the Chinese economy [4][10]. Conclusion The conference call provided insights into the current state of the Chinese economy, highlighting the PBOC's cautious approach to monetary policy, rising government bond yields, and the mixed performance of industrial profits. Investors are advised to consider these factors when making investment decisions in the context of China's evolving economic landscape [5][10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Asia Pacific Economics - **Key Focus**: Discussions with US investors regarding the economic outlook for Asia, particularly China, India, and Japan Core Insights 1. **Business Cycle Outlook for Asia**: - Investors are generally optimistic about growth, particularly equity investors compared to fixed income investors who anticipate a modest slowdown. - There is a strong IT capital expenditure in the US, which is expected to support Asia's exports [6][5][5] 2. **China's Macro vs. Market Divergence**: - Investors recognize the weakness in China's macroeconomic landscape but expect markets to diverge from macro trends. - The anti-involution policy is seen as insufficient to address deflationary pressures [22][22][5] 3. **India's Domestic Demand Recovery**: - Investor sentiment is bearish on India due to recent deceleration in corporate revenue and profit growth. - However, a recovery is anticipated from Q4 2025 driven by fiscal and monetary easing measures [26][27][28] 4. **Japan's Policy Rate Path**: - Most investors expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike rates sooner rather than later, contrary to the base case which does not foresee rate hikes even in 2026. - The current inflation dynamics are largely influenced by supply factors rather than demand [29][30][32] Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Tariffs**: - The weighted average tariff on imports from Asia has risen to 25%, significantly impacting growth expectations. - The US-Korea trade deal remains unresolved, with auto tariffs still at 27.5% [7][5][5] 2. **Korea's Trade Cycle**: - Recent data indicates a slowdown in Korea's exports, with daily exports contracting by 10.6% after adjusting for working days, highlighting broad-based weakness [8][8][8] 3. **Rate Cuts in Asia**: - More rate cuts are expected across Asian economies, particularly in India, Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan, as growth and inflation pressures persist [16][19][19] 4. **China's Deflationary Pressures**: - For a sustainable exit from deflation, significant shifts in the growth model are necessary, including reducing excess capacity and boosting domestic consumption [23][24][24] 5. **Investor Focus on Micro Themes**: - Investors are increasingly interested in micro themes such as emerging frontiers and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, rather than macroeconomic recovery [25][25][25] 6. **US-India Trade Relations**: - Ongoing trade tensions pose risks to India's growth outlook, particularly concerning services exports which constitute a significant portion of GDP [28][28][28] 7. **Japan's Corporate Profit Outlook**: - The slowdown in global trade is expected to adversely affect corporate profits, especially in the manufacturing sector [34][34][34] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Asia and the sentiments of investors regarding future growth and risks.

China’s labor market is deteriorating just as deflationary pressures showed initial signs of easing https://t.co/RHYqfY9GRR ...

Economic Trends - Deflation is impacting various sectors in China, starting with cars and fast food [1] - The deflationary trend is now extending to cosmetic procedures like Botox and photorejuvenation [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.31% supported by higher T-note yields and weakness in the British pound [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated support for two additional Fed rate cuts this year, influencing market expectations [3] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD fell by -0.33% due to deflation concerns in the Eurozone and a stronger dollar [4] - German August PPI declined by -0.5% month-on-month and -2.2% year-on-year, marking the largest year-on-year decline in 15 months [5] Group 3: ECB Policy Outlook - ECB comments reflected mixed signals, with some members suggesting the need for further monetary easing due to below-potential growth and inflation concerns [6] - The divergence in central bank policies is limiting euro losses, as the ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is expected to cut rates further [7]

tokenworks pnkstr collected 8 cryptopunks worth $1.78m with $27m market cap. burns 1% of supply every punk sale.5 new strategy tokens launch this week. apestr, pudgystr, dickstr, birbstr, meebstr. each burns 1% of fees into pnkstr creating compound deflation across all tokens.first protocol where success of copycats burns original token supply. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment with the most bullish Fund Manager Survey (FMS) since February 2025, with cash levels at a low of 3.9% and equity allocation at a 7-month high [1][13][19]. Core Insights - There has been a significant increase in global growth optimism, with 67% of investors expecting a soft landing for the economy, and only 10% anticipating a hard landing [2][21][23]. - The report highlights a notable shift in asset allocation, with a record 58% of investors viewing global equity markets as overvalued, yet still increasing their allocation to equities [3][45]. - The biggest tail risk identified is a second wave of inflation, with 26% of investors expressing concern, while the risk of a trade war has diminished significantly [31][33]. Summary by Sections On Macro & Policy - The report notes the largest jump in growth expectations since October 2024, with 67% of investors expecting a soft landing and 18% no landing [2][21]. - Investors are demanding higher capital expenditures, reaching a 9-month high, while the desire for stronger balance sheets is at its lowest since February 2022 [2][27]. On Asset Allocation - Global equities are at a 7-month high in allocation, despite 58% of investors believing stocks are overvalued [3][45]. - There has been a significant rotation out of UK equities, with a net 20% underweight position, marking the largest drop since April 2004 [50][167]. On Contrarian Trades - The report identifies "Long Magnificent 7" as the most crowded trade, with 42% of investors participating, followed by "Long Gold" at 25% [42][44]. - Contrarian long trades include bonds and UK stocks, while contrarian shorts focus on banks and healthcare [4][42]. On Investor Sentiment - The FMS sentiment index rose to 5.4 from 4.5, indicating increased optimism among investors [13]. - A record 58% of investors view global equity markets as overvalued, reflecting a cautious outlook despite increased allocations [45]. On Sector Allocation - Investors increased their allocation to healthcare, telecom, and consumer discretionary sectors while reducing exposure to utilities and energy [172]. - The allocation to banks has reached a 7-month high, with a net 26% overweight position [175]. On Inflation and Interest Rates - 73% of investors believe AI will have a deflationary effect, while 49% expect higher inflation in the coming year [56][123]. - The divergence between expectations for short-term rates and inflation continues to widen, with only 6% expecting higher short-term rates [36][121].