Welcome back to the exchange. We're a little more than 24 hours from the Fed decision, but 28 days into the government shutdown for the impact of that and the ongoing trade uncertainty, uh, all of that could have a future a fate or could impact the future of rate cuts. We turn to Steve Leeman with the results of the latest CNBC Fed survey. Steve, >> thanks Leslie. Yeah, responders to the October CNBC Fed Service. rate cut on the way from this meeting, the next meeting in December, and possibly one in Januar ...

Let's talk about the data if we can. You're in a position now where you've got a ton of data yourself. What's it like at the Federal Reserve.Just this idea of flying blind without having that official data. What does that mean. On the margin, they can still use private sources and they can talk to businesses.The sense is that hiring is sluggish. I think you hear that from business. You also hear from business.We're not we may be belt tightening, but we're not firing significantly either. And so the reason t ...

Let's get you to the region with MSNBC senior White House reporter Von Hillyard in South Korea ahead of tomorrow's summit. Also with us, Axio's chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin. Von, tell us more about these latest economic agreements and the president's message this morning.>> Right. This was a big 24 hours for him in Japan, meeting their new conservative first ever female prime minister, named prime minister by their parliament just literally last week. and the prime minister Sai Takahichi.She made ...

Core Insights - Carter's plans to close 150 stores across North America by 2028 due to financial strain from tariffs [1][5] - The company will reduce its office workforce by 300, representing a 15% cut, by the end of 2025 [1] - The annual gross pre-tax impact of additional import duties is estimated to be between $200 million and $250 million [2] Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, net sales decreased by 0.1% to $757.8 million, down from $758.5 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year [2] - The US wholesale segment saw a decline of 5.1%, while gains were noted in US retail and international segments [3] - Operating income fell by 62.2% to $29.1 million, with operating margin shrinking to 3.8% from 10.2% a year earlier [3] Net Income and Future Outlook - Net income for the quarter was $11.6 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, compared to $58.3 million, or $1.62 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2024 [4] - The company anticipates additional charges in the fourth quarter related to severance and outplacement services, estimated between $4 million to $5 million [5] - Planned store closures are expected to impact stores contributing approximately $110 million in annual net sales [6] Strategic Adjustments - Carter's is adjusting its sourcing strategy, with countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and India expected to account for 75% of product sourcing spend in fiscal 2025, while China's share will drop to less than 3% [6]

Core Insights - Inflation remains persistently high, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1] - Tariffs may not be temporary, suggesting potential long-term impacts on trade and pricing [1] - Wage pressures are increasing, which could affect labor costs and consumer spending [1] Inflation - Inflation is described as "stubbornly high," reflecting a significant concern for the economy [1] Tariffs - The article suggests that tariffs might not be temporary, which could lead to sustained higher costs for businesses and consumers [1] Wage Pressures - Rising wage pressures are noted, indicating that companies may face increased labor costs, impacting profitability and pricing strategies [1]

The limited impact of tariffs on current earnings conceals a potentially lasting effect on future growth. For when it comes to investments in that growth, America’s non-AI businesses look as paralysed by the uncertainty as deer in the headlights https://t.co/vHSJipvGpo ...

The world needs leaders who promote peace strongly and to achieve that you have to break some rules. When president arrived he asked me to join him in the car. I said that's again the security and protocol rules and he was delighted to break the rules and I >> Donald Trump seems to have walked away with more than just goodwill and handshake through his brief visit to Southeast Asia.The US president left the region with a flurry of new trade deals with Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. But not only ...

Trade Agreement & Tariffs - A status quo agreement is expected between the US and China, delaying restrictions on rare earths and avoiding new US tariffs, protecting downside risk for markets [2][3] - Potential upside in the China trade deal could come from tariff reductions if there's an agreement on fentanyl [4] - The US is signing smaller agreements with other Asian countries to restrict China's ability to transship goods, strengthening the US position in trade discussions [4][5] - The President may be considering a 10% tariff on non-USMCA goods from Canada, which are a small and declining portion of goods, as part of negotiations [5][6] - Canada and Mexico are expected to be the greatest beneficiaries on the trade front due to the absence of reciprocal tariffs, leading to the lowest effective tariff rates [6] Deglobalization & Supply Chains - The world is moving towards deglobalization, highlighting the risk of having supply chains located outside the US [9] - Both the US and China are gradually building their own chip and rare earth industries to become more self-sufficient, aiming to avoid disruption to the global economy [9][10] - A trade truce is more likely than a broad deal with China, focusing on minor issues to maintain the status quo [7][11]

All right, a lot of focus on uh Asia this morning with the president there. But we're also getting some headlines out of Riad uh the investment forum there. One in particular I want to ask you about uh Black Rockck's Larry Fank saying that major US investors are overweight US equities.He's advising investors to be overweight US equities for the next year and a half or so 18 months. Do you agree with that take. Do you see any issues there.>> No, we think the US offers a combination of favorable demographics ...

Core Viewpoint - UPS is currently viewed as one of the most out-of-favor stocks, yet it has a buy rating with a price target of 112, indicating significant upside potential from its current trading levels [1] Group 1: Stock Valuation and Dividend Yield - UPS is trading at its largest historical discount to the S&P 500, with an almost 8% dividend yield, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2] - The stock is perceived to be priced as if it faces existential risks, which the company does not believe are as severe as the market suggests [2] Group 2: Financial Health and Cash Flow - UPS generates sufficient free cash flow to cover its dividend, and there is optimism that the company will address cost-related challenges and its relationship with Amazon over time [2] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Impact on Trucking - The enforcement of English language and citizenship requirements for truck drivers could potentially remove up to 200,000 truckers from the road, impacting supply and demand dynamics in the trucking industry [4][5] - The introduction of tariffs on imported trucks may also affect UPS, as these regulatory changes could lead to higher trucking rates by 2026, benefiting UPS and the broader transportation sector [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Employment - UPS serves as a bellwether for the freight and shipping economy, with its international segment providing clear insights into the impacts of tariffs and additional costs incurred [7][8] - The company's plan to cut 20,000 jobs may affect blue-collar employment, as UPS is one of the largest unionized employers in the country, and its compensation structure is relatively high [9]