Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated May 15, 2025, from Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [2][4] - It provides an overview of the urea market, including fundamentals, key factors, and an expected market trend [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The urea market is expected to be volatile today, with a short - term rebound in the main contract, high daily production, inventory accumulation, declining compound fertilizer production, and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [4] Group 4: Detailed Summary Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has rebounded recently. Supply is high with new capacity coming online, and inventory has accumulated again after a decline. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has marginally improved. There are many rumors about export policies, but no official confirmation [4] - **Key Factors** - **Likely to be Bullish**: Export policy expectations and marginal improvement in agricultural demand [5] - **Likely to be Bearish**: High production and daily output, inventory accumulation, and weak industrial demand [5] - **Main Logic**: High supply and marginal changes in demand [5] - **Expected Trend**: The main urea contract is expected to be volatile today [4] Market Data - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1930 (unchanged), the UR2509 contract basis is 33, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.7% [4][6] - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 119.9 million tons (- 11.1 million tons) [4] - **Technical Indicators**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main contract's net position is short [4] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, urea capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [10]

尿素早报 2025-5-13 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投产，日产预计将维 持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显回落，复合肥库存 累库，三聚氰胺开工中性，工业需求弱势，农业需求有边际好转。尿素近期出口政策传言较多， 但目前仍未有确切官方消息。交割品现货1930（+20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差37，升贴水比例1.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.9万吨（-11.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面短期反弹，日产高位，库存再次累库，复合肥开工下行，农需边 际好转，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、出口政策预期 • 2、农需边际好转 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、库存再度累库 • 3、工业需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：供应端高日产，需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投产，日产预计将维 持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显回落，复合肥库存 累库，三聚氰胺开工中性，工业需求弱势，农业需求有边际好转。尿素近期出口政策传言较多， 但目前仍未有确切官方消息。交割品现货1910（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差28，升贴水比例1.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.9万吨（-11.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market rose strongly. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1820 - 1860 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 55 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the future, domestic urea production is expected to fluctuate slightly. Agricultural demand is increasing, and export policies are becoming clearer, which will boost port collection demand. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry in Northeast China is in the final stage, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to recover. Short - term urea enterprise inventories may decline steadily. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1920 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market rose strongly this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1820 - 1860 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 55 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Some domestic urea plants have resumed production, and daily output has increased. There are no plans for plant shutdowns next week, and 1 - 2 shut - down plants will resume production. Agricultural demand is increasing, and export policies are becoming clearer, which will increase port collection demand. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry in Northeast China is in the final stage, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to recover. Short - term urea enterprise inventories may decline steadily [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1920 yuan [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [9]. - As of May 9, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 103 [13]. - As of May 9, there were 4970 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 29 from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of May 8, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1910 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [26]. - As of May 8, the FOB price of urea in China was 260.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - As of May 8, the urea basis was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of May 7, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of May 8, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.62 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. - **Industry** - As of May 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1410000 tons, an increase of 9300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%; the average daily output was 201400 tons, an increase of 1300 tons from last week; the capacity utilization rate was 87.35%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous period [40]. - As of May 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 133000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.71%. As of May 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1065600 tons, a decrease of 126100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.58% [43]. - In March 2025, urea exports were 0.23 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.62%; the average export price was 221.07 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36.20% [46]. - **Downstream** - As of May 8, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.70 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 75.24% on average this week, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from last week [49].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：现货成交持续弱势，短期弱势运行 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价266.01-268.01美元/吨，高端下调1美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨； 波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价345.01-355.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸395.01-400.01美元/吨，上调5美元/吨；巴西小颗粒CFR 价格375.01-390.01美元/吨，高端上调10美元/吨；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。由于目前出口法检政策仍严格，国际国内价格 背离格局延续。 ➢ 国内现货：目前基层对尿素的采购积极性仍较弱。从周四至周日，现货成交持续清淡，短期现货预计仍偏弱运行。4月27日报价，天庆下跌至1750元 /吨、临沂下跌至1800元/吨、东平贸易回调至1760元/吨、心连心 ...