Core Insights - The iron alloy industry has made significant progress in eliminating backward production capacity since 2021, but lacks key measures for substantial carbon reduction [1] - Carbon pricing mechanisms, including carbon taxes and carbon trading, are essential for controlling carbon emissions, with each having distinct advantages and limitations [2][3] Carbon Pricing Mechanisms - Carbon taxes provide stable revenue expectations for companies, promoting low-carbon technology innovation, but may not effectively control total carbon emissions [2][3] - Carbon trading offers a superior total control mechanism, with predetermined emission limits that prevent significant breaches even during economic booms [3] - The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest carbon trading market globally, demonstrating effective emission control alongside economic growth [3] Industry Challenges and Responses - The iron alloy industry faces high energy consumption pressures, with significant electricity usage per ton of products like silicon iron and manganese silicon [7] - The Chinese government has set ambitious energy efficiency targets for the iron alloy industry, requiring a substantial proportion of production to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [7] - The establishment of a green product certification standard is crucial for guiding the industry's transition to low-carbon development [7][8] Green Product Certification - The newly released green product certification standard for iron alloys focuses on the entire product lifecycle, addressing energy consumption, resource utilization, and carbon emissions [8] - If the entire industry achieves certification, it is estimated that energy consumption per product could decrease by approximately 15%, saving around 25 billion kWh annually [9] Futures Market Initiatives - The "Green Assistance" pilot project aims to leverage futures tools to support the green transition of iron alloy production, providing financial incentives for certified green product producers [10][12] - The integration of green certification with futures trading is expected to enhance market competitiveness and promote a virtuous cycle of green transformation [12][13] Pathways for Industry Transformation - The iron alloy industry must enhance low-carbon technology research and data monitoring capabilities to address existing shortcomings [14] - A composite mechanism combining carbon taxes and carbon trading could better meet the industry's complex needs, alongside coordinated green finance policies [15] - Industry leaders should take on a proactive role in driving green development, with associations refining standards and fostering a supportive ecosystem [16][17] Conclusion - The iron alloy industry is undergoing a fundamental shift towards green and low-carbon practices, supported by new certification standards and innovative financial tools [18] - Continued collaboration among government, market, and enterprises is essential for achieving energy savings and industrial upgrades, positioning the industry favorably in the global low-carbon competition [18]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 94, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Release Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - CEA23 and CEA24 prices rebounded above 70 yuan, with 15,000 tons in the listing and 420,000 tons in the bulk market [2] - The CCER listing agreement had a trading volume of 1,100 tons and an average trading price of 89.32 yuan/ton, a 2.34% increase [2] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [2] - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [2][3] - The release of mandatory circulation quotas was insufficient two days ago, with potential selling pressure still existing. The market price is fluctuating at the bottom and lacks upward momentum. Considering the verification node, the trading volume is expected to rise in mid - to late June. After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged, and the bottom range in June was raised to 68 - 73 yuan/ton [5] - If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 4: Market Data Summary CEA Market Data | Quota Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Average Trading Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Total Turnover (10,000 yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.11 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3004.64 | | CEA21 | 72.00 | 0.00% | 2.89 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 71.50 | 0.00% | -0.50 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 71.00 | 1.65% | -0.50 | N/A | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 88.75 | | CEA24 | 71.20 | 2.45% | 0.20 | 71.20 | 42.20 | 0.20 | 42.00 | 0.00 | [7][8] CCER Market Data - Average trading price: 89.32 yuan/ton, a 2.34% increase - Trading volume: 1,100 tons - Turnover: 993,000 yuan [9]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 100, 2025) [1] Report Date - June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, with the price trends of the primary and secondary markets of EUA diverging. The short - term outlook is bearish, and the medium - term outlook is volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 72.71 euros/ton (-1.07%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.31 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.39 euros/ton (1.39%), and the trading volume is 36,700 lots (0.64) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Bearish; Medium - term: Volatile, range €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - **Likely to Rise**: Israel's air strike on Iran makes the US - Iran peace talks scheduled for the weekend likely to be hopeless, and crude oil continues to rise significantly. Japan expands LNG procurement from the US to diversify procurement risks in the Middle East and the Asia - Pacific [2][3] - **Likely to Fall**: The EU accelerates the laying of high - voltage cables to support the integration of renewable energy into the grid [4] Risks - The EU resumes Russian gas supply; The EU increases auctions to raise funds; The emission cap is weakened [4] Chart Information - **Chart 1**: Shows EUA auction volume, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction revenue, and bid coverage ratio on June 11 - 12, 2025 [4] - **Chart 2**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction price trend - **Chart 3**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio - **Chart 4**: Shows EUA futures and spot market information on June 11 - 12, 2025, including futures settlement price, volume, open interest, spot settlement price, volume, container shipping carbon cost, etc. [4] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis - **Chart 6**: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest

Report Title - National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 93, 2025) [1] Report Provider - Guotai Junan Futures [2] Release Date - June 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - CEA prices rebounded with reduced volume, and market participants showed strong willingness to support prices [3] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4] - After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan/ton, bottom - fishing demand emerged. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is insufficient, potential selling pressure still exists, and the market price is oscillating at the bottom without upward driving force. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to - late June, and the bottom range in June is expected to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton [6] - If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed further, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6] Market Quotes Summary CEA - CEA21 and CEA22 showed abnormal movements, and CEA23 had a mild rebound. The volume of listed transactions was 82,000 tons, and the volume of large - scale transactions was 100,000 tons [12] - CEA19 - 20 closed at 69.11 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 72.00 yuan/ton with a 6.67% increase; CEA22 at 71.50 yuan/ton with a 6.72% increase; CEA23 at 69.85 yuan/ton with a 0.82% increase; CEA24 at 69.50 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change [8] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume was 77,900 tons, and the average transaction price was 87.28 yuan/ton with a 9.03% increase [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The auction price of EUA is 73.5 euros/ton (up 1.86%), with a bid - cover ratio of 1.56; the EUA futures settlement price is 74.36 euros/ton (up 2.34%), and the trading volume is 30,300 lots (up 0.28). The short - term strategy is bearish, and the medium - term is range - bound between €67 - 75. The latest CoT report shows that last week, investment funds' net long positions increased by 5.74 million tons, nearly half of which came from short - covering. The TTF strengthened due to factors such as French nuclear power maintenance and the EU's proposal to end the secret import of fuel from Russia. There are no new negative factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market - **Auction**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA auction price was 73.50 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.0725 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.56, and the auction revenue was 152.33 million euros. On June 10, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.16 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.64, and the auction revenue was 234.20 million euros [3]. - **Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.36 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots, up 0.28. The open interest was 32.07 million lots, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 73.43 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume decreased by 3,958 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.83 US dollars/TEU, with a freight rate ratio of 0.77% [4].

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Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 91, 2025) [1] - Release Date: June 10, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The single - day trading volume of CEA exceeded 1 million tons again, and the CEA price was weakly stable. CEA23 and CEA24 showed a differentiated trend, with 27,000 tons in the listing market and 990,000 tons in the bulk market. The listing agreement trading volume of CCER was 20,000 tons, and the average trading price was 88 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.64% [4] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4] - After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is insufficient, potential selling pressure still exists, the market price is fluctuating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. Considering the verification node, the trading volume is expected to rise in the middle and late June, and the bottom range in June is expected to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton [5] - If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Summary by Catalog CEA Market - **Price and Volume Information**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 67 yuan/ton, 67.5 yuan/ton, 67 yuan/ton, 68.6 yuan/ton, and 68.25 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.44%, and 0.37% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0 tons, 0 tons, 0 tons, 25,700 tons, and 991,000 tons respectively. The listing agreement trading volumes were 0 tons, 0 tons, 0 tons, 25,700 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively, and the bulk agreement trading volume of CEA24 was 990,000 tons. The total turnovers were 68.3763 million yuan, 0 yuan, 0 yuan, 1.7642 million yuan, and 0 yuan respectively [7][8] CCER Market - The average trading price was 88 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.64%. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 2.0016 million tons [9]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 97, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Report's Core View - EUA continues to decouple from TTF and closes higher again. The short - term outlook is neutral to bullish, while the medium - term outlook shows an oscillation range of €67 - 75. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - First - level (Auction): Auction price is not available, and the bid - coverage ratio is not available. Second - level (EUA Futures): The settlement price is 74.23 euros/ton (0.99% increase), and the trading volume is 21,700 lots (0.57 increase) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - Positive factors: Most EU countries are on holiday, so there is no auction today; The Norwegian natural gas plant is still under maintenance [2] - Negative factors: Rising European temperatures suppress natural gas demand, but it is not enough to stimulate stable cooling demand; Low Asian natural gas demand leads to excess LNG being diverted to Europe, alleviating the pre - replenishment supply shortage and pushing down the TTF price [2] Data Charts - The report includes charts on EUA latest auction market information, EUA auction price trend - seasonal chart, EUA auction bid - coverage ratio - seasonal chart, EUA market information - futures and spot, EUA futures and spot prices and basis, and December contract positions - seasonal chart [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 96, 2025)" [1] Release Date - The report was released on June 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EU ETS may be extended to international aviation, and EUA decoupled from TTF and strengthened [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - The auction price was 72.3 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.33%, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.74 [2] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.5 euros/ton, an increase of 1.04%, and the trading volume was 16,000 lots, a decrease of 1.17 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - China's Ministry of Commerce proposed to relax rare - earth exports to the EU; The EU intends to extend EU ETS to international aviation [2] Bearish Factors - Germany's wind power supply increased, and the temperature in Central and Eastern Europe was slightly higher than the seasonal average; German industry lobbying groups demanded that the EU revoke the gasoline - car ban [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information | EUA Auction Volume (10,000 tons) | EUA Auction Price (euros/ton) | CBAM Certificate Price (euros/ton) | Bid - to - Cover Ratio | Auction Revenue (10,000 euros) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 160.70 | 2025 - 06 - 06, 72.30 | 71.13 | 1.74 | 11,619 | | 324.55 | 2025 - 06 - 05, 72.54 | 71.13 | 1.46 | 23,543 | [4] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information | | Futures Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Futures Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Futures Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Spot Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Spot Trading Volume (lots) | Container Shipping Carbon Cost (US dollars/TEU) | Freight Cost Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.74 | | 32.12 | 71.79 | | | | | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 73.50, +1.04% | 1.60, - 1.17 | 32.12, 0.00 | 72.56, +1.07% | - 1260 | 12.71, +0.76% | 1051 | [5]