Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - CEA23 shows weak and stable operation, with no transactions for quotas of other years; the listed trading volume of CEA is about 100,000 tons, and there are no large - volume transactions; the listed trading volume of CCER is 0.01 million tons, with an average transaction price of 93.8 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices in the range of 76 - 80 yuan/ton [4] - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises, with less market selling pressure than in Q4 2024 [4] - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the national carbon market gap is slightly reduced, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the short - term price support level is around 76 yuan/ton [5] - Pay attention to the trading activity around the pre - allocation deadline of the 2024 annual quota (April 20); the depletion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and strong upward momentum may appear in Q2 2025 and later [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: CEA23 runs weakly and stably, with no transactions for quotas of other years; the listed trading volume is about 100,000 tons, and there are no large - volume transactions [3] - CCER: The listed trading volume is 0.01 million tons, with an average transaction price of 93.8 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - Carbon quota prices: The closing prices of carbon quotas 19 - 20, 21, 22, and 23 are 83.50, 80.44, 88.00, and 82.06 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.77% [7] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices in the range of 76 - 80 yuan/ton [4] Core Logic - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises, with less market selling pressure than in Q4 2024 [4] - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the national carbon market gap is slightly reduced, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the short - term price support level is around 76 yuan/ton [5] - Pay attention to the trading activity around the pre - allocation deadline of the 2024 annual quota (April 20); the depletion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and strong upward momentum may appear in Q2 2025 and later [5]

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Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is a government-led trading system aimed at reducing carbon emissions, officially launched on July 16, 2021, covering 2,225 enterprises in the power sector with an annual emission coverage of approximately 4.5 billion tons, making it the largest carbon trading market globally [1][2] Group 1: Key Terminology - Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) allows companies to emit a specific amount of CO₂, where 1 allowance equals 1 ton of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e). Companies must hold enough allowances to cover their emissions by the end of the compliance period to avoid penalties [3][4] - Carbon Allowance refers to the emissions permits allocated to companies by the government, with a future trend of decreasing free allowances and increasing paid allowances to incentivize emission reductions [5] - Carbon Trading involves the buying and selling of carbon allowances or reduction credits, primarily through agreements, with potential future inclusion of financial instruments like futures and options [6] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) represents carbon credits generated from projects like renewable energy and forestry, which can offset up to 5% of a company's emissions [7] - The MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) system ensures the accuracy of carbon emission data, serving as the foundation for fair market operations [8] - Carbon Price is the market price for carbon allowances, currently ranging from 50 to 80 RMB per ton, significantly lower than the EU price of approximately 80 Euros per ton, with expectations of gradual increases as policies tighten [9][10] Group 3: Goals and Strategies - Peak Carbon refers to the point at which CO₂ emissions reach their highest level before beginning to decline, with China committing to achieve this by 2030 [11][12] - Carbon Neutrality aims for net-zero emissions by 2060 through emission reductions, carbon sinks, and technological innovations [15] - Carbon Sink involves natural processes, such as forests absorbing CO₂, which can be developed into carbon credit projects [16] Group 4: Financial and Regulatory Aspects - Carbon Finance encompasses financial innovations related to the carbon market, enhancing market liquidity and reducing compliance costs for companies [17] - Carbon Footprint measures the total carbon emissions produced directly or indirectly by individuals, companies, or products throughout their lifecycle [18] - Carbon Border Tax is a proposed tariff on high-carbon imports to balance domestic and international carbon costs, with potential implications for high-carbon exporting companies [19] Group 5: Monitoring and Verification - Carbon Monitoring utilizes technologies like sensors and satellites to track carbon emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, with pilot projects already underway in 16 cities [20][21] - Carbon Accounting systematically quantifies carbon emissions for companies or products over a specific period, adhering to international standards [22] - Carbon Verification involves third-party audits of carbon emission reports to ensure data accuracy, a requirement for major emitters in the national carbon market [27]