【内容摘要】7月30日，央行连续净投放，资金面均衡偏松；债市明显回暖；转债市场主要指数集体收 跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会】中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年 10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划的建议。会议强调，做好下半年经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见 性。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持 科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。依法依规治理企业无 序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效 推进地方融资平台出清。增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。 【就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作，中共中央召开党外人士座谈会，习近平主持并发表重要讲话】7 月23日，中共中央在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 ...

来源：国金证券第5小时 新股上市：N鼎佳 920005.BJ * 1、中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月召开二十届四中全会，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议强调，做好下半年 经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力 支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。积极稳妥化 解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清。增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。 2、国新办召开新闻发布会介绍，今年初步安排育儿补贴资金预算900亿元左右，8月31日前各地全面开放育儿补贴的申领，支付宝、微信等第三平台将开 通申领入口。地方此前补贴标准高于国家基础标准的，按规定做好评估和备案工作后，可以继续执行。 3、今日凌晨，美联储连续第五次按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间不变，符合预期。美联储主席鲍威尔表示现在就断言美联 储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the implementation of a national childcare subsidy policy starting from January 1, 2025, providing an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child until the age of three, aimed at reducing childcare costs and enhancing birth rates [1][2] - The policy is part of a broader "民生减负" (livelihood burden reduction) strategy, which includes other initiatives like consumption upgrades and housing support, indicating a comprehensive approach to stimulate consumer spending [2][3] - Local governments have already begun implementing their own childcare subsidies, with various regions offering different amounts, such as 10,000 yuan for the third child in Changsha and tiered subsidies in Hohhot [3][6] Group 2 - The "以旧换新" (trade-in) policy is also being reinforced, with significant national funding allocated to stimulate the home appliance and furniture markets, leading to a notable increase in retail sales [6][12] - The industry is experiencing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement, aimed at ending price wars and promoting high-quality development, which is crucial for the long-term health of the home furnishing sector [7][9] - The anti-involution movement is characterized by a focus on innovation and quality, with companies encouraged to shift from price competition to value competition, enhancing product quality and user experience [11][19] Group 3 - The childcare subsidy and related policies are expected to catalyze an upgrade in housing demand, particularly for families with children, leading to increased interest in larger living spaces and multifunctional home solutions [13][16] - There is a growing emphasis on "儿童友好" (child-friendly) community features, with parents prioritizing educational resources and community amenities when choosing homes, which presents opportunities for home furnishing companies to tailor their products [15][16] - The shift in demographic trends from a "population dividend" to a "quality dividend" will require the home furnishing industry to adapt by focusing on high-quality, scenario-based products that cater to the evolving needs of families [17][18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 347 points or 1.4%, ending at 25,176, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.7% to 5,490 [3][4] - The total trading volume for the day was 319.65 billion [3] - Northbound capital inflow was 11.71 billion [3] Group 2: Company Performance - HSBC Holdings reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, with its stock price dropping 3.8% to 96.95 [4] - Hang Seng Bank's mid-term profit decreased by 30%, leading to a 7.4% drop in its stock price to 113.8 [4] - Prada's mid-term profit increased by 0.6% to 386 million euros, with revenue rising by 7.51% to 2.74 billion euros [12] - CATL's mid-term profit rose by 33% to 30.51 billion yuan, with revenue increasing by 7.27% to 178.89 billion yuan [14] - Sinopec Oilfield Services won a pipeline project worth approximately 3.597 billion yuan, representing 4.44% of its projected 2024 revenue [15] Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Developments - The Hong Kong government released a report highlighting the advantages of its business environment, emphasizing its role in attracting global investment [7] - The Hong Kong Financial Development Bureau welcomed the government's report, underscoring Hong Kong's unique position as a leading international financial center [8] - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association announced new regulations to curb pricing distortions in bond underwriting, effective from August 11 [9] - The Chinese government plans to allocate approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies, with applications opening in late August [10]

每日市场观察 2025 年 7 月 31 日 【今日关注】 周三沪指早盘走高午后回落；深成指和创业板指数开盘后就显露颓势， 午后一度加速回落。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.17%，深成指跌 0.77%，创业 板指数跌 1.62%。板块方面，采掘、船舶制造、旅游酒店、食品饮料、 商业百货、文化传媒、医药商业、石油、钢铁、农业等涨幅居前；电池、 多元金融、小金属、工程机械、电源设备、软件开发、电机、光伏设备 等板块调整明显。两市涨少跌多，其中上涨股票 1662 只，下跌股票数 量 3412 只；沪深两市总成交金额超 1.84 万亿，环比有所放大。 市场自 6 月 24 日以来持续震荡上扬，尤其是创业板个股短线涨幅较大， 累积了不小获利盘。越向上行，资金就越恐高，叠加日线及小时级别指 标持续高位钝化，获利为安的心态使得盘面稍显疲弱就会导致有资金流 出。然而从盘面来看，权重板块依然力挺股指，股指长期趋势保持良好， 强势调整是为了后面更好更持续的上攻。当下的调整仅仅是修正日线级 别指标，空间较为有限。投资者没有必要单纯因为短线涨幅就恐慌离场， 须知强势行情中最可惜的就是降低仓位。 的优质标的可待充分调整后再度关注，这样既降低了 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the component sector leading the gains. As of the opening today, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3604.70 points, down 0.30%; the Shenzhen Component Index reported 11208.46 points, up 0.05%; and the ChiNext Index reported 2382.97 points, up 0.65% [1] Policy and Economic Developments - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, emphasizing the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [2] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed that China welcomes investments from foreign enterprises, including U.S. companies, to share development opportunities [2] Corporate Announcements - Ningde Times reported a net profit of 30.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 33.02%, and proposed a cash dividend of 10.07 yuan per 10 shares [4] - Vanke A announced that the Shenzhen Metro Group would provide a loan of up to 869 million yuan to the company [4] - Long River Power announced plans to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping capacity expansion project [4] - Yonghui Supermarket plans to raise no more than 3.992 billion yuan through a private placement for store upgrades [4] Market Trends and Analysis - Financial analysts believe that despite recent fluctuations in the A-share market, the overall upward trend remains unchanged, with active trading and a market turnover exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, supporting a recovery in A-share performance [8]

Economic Policy - The July 30 meeting emphasized the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and timely enhancements, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][8] - The meeting highlighted the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption and expanding consumer demand while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [1][9] Market Dynamics - On July 30, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.36%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.72%. Southbound funds recorded a net purchase exceeding 10 billion HKD [4] - China Chang'an Automobile Group reported a total revenue of 146.9 billion CNY for the first half of the year, with a target of 300,000 vehicles for the year, including 1 million in new energy vehicle sales [4] Industry Developments - The National AI Open Source Platform "Huanxin Community" was officially launched, with ZTE contributing 11 core technology achievements, including six self-developed large models [5] - The China Coking Industry Association called for a price increase in the coking market, with specific price adjustments for various types of coke effective from July 31 [5] Stock Market Movements - On July 30, polysilicon futures reached a limit-up price of 54,770 CNY/ton, marking a 9% increase [7] - The stock of Upwind New Materials experienced significant volatility, with a closing price of 92.07 CNY/share, up 9.37%, and a total market value of 37.1 billion CNY [7] Corporate Announcements - Nanjing Hongtai Sun Co., Ltd. announced a price increase for its 42% paraquat mother liquor to 15,000 CNY/ton due to fluctuating raw material prices and high demand [6] - Li Auto's stock saw a decrease in shareholding by BlackRock from 5.01% to 4.61% as of July 24 [4]

大家好，今天是2025年7月31日，欢迎关注今天的贝壳财经早报，AI小贝将带你纵览财经热点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Central Political Bureau meeting maintained a stable tone, emphasizing the optimization of existing policies and some structural increments. The stock market is expected to remain at a relatively high risk - preference level due to the demand for a long - bull market [1]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell downplayed the expectation of a September rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the US dollar index [2]. - The July Political Bureau meeting announced limited incremental policies, and the policy risks faced by the bond market significantly decreased. There is a chance to start trying to go long [3]. - The oil market continued to rise, while the EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased [6]. - The steel price declined significantly. The Political Bureau meeting did not give further expectations on "anti - involution", causing a decline in market sentiment. The long - term impact of "anti - involution" is worthy of attention, but short - term trading is difficult, and market fluctuations remain large [5]. - The grease market continued to fluctuate. The poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine led to an increase in the price of rapeseed oil [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, with internal differences. Gold prices fell significantly by more than 1%. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - This year, the preliminary budget for childcare subsidies is about 90 billion yuan, and the application will be fully open by August 31. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, and the stock market is expected to remain at a high risk - preference level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [15][16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July. Powell downplayed the September rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar index rose significantly. It is recommended that the US dollar index will rebound in the short term [20][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed continued to hold off on rate changes, with two voting members supporting rate cuts. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. Market risk preference declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction due to economic data falling short of expectations [24][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The July Political Bureau meeting highly evaluated the economic development in the first half of the year, and the incremental policies were limited. The policy risks faced by the bond market decreased. The long - end variety spread may rise moderately. It is recommended to start trying to go long [27][28][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction in Linfen mostly continued to rise. Coke started the third round of price increases. The short - term price may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to position management [31][32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. The US soybean产区 has good weather, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. It is recommended to view the internal and external futures prices with a volatile mindset [34][35][36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to export more than 5 million tons of palm oil to India. The grease market continued to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil rose due to the poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine. It is recommended to buy on dips [37][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized capacity governance. Steel prices declined, and market sentiment slipped. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious [40][41][42]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to remain in low - level volatility [43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port corn spot price remained stagnant. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. It is recommended to hold short positions in new crops [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The northern port steam coal price remained stable. The short - term coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate due to factors such as rainfall and environmental inspections [46][47]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest over $700 million in an iron ore project. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limits of some polysilicon futures contracts were adjusted. The spot transaction average price increased. The short - term polysilicon price is expected to run between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [49][50][51]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal increased. The industrial silicon production may increase. The price is expected to run between 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [52][53][54]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale Indonesia plans to develop a nickel project. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The short - term raw material price is weakening, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [55][56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto expanded its lithium business in Quebec. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased after position limits. It is not recommended to short too early, and long positions need to wait for safer points [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - An energy storage project using lead - carbon batteries started. The Shanghai lead futures maintained a weak and volatile pattern. In the short term, pay attention to buying on dips and manage positions well [60][62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Grupo Mexico's second - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 56% year - on - year. The Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [64][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen LPG increased. The US C3 inventory increased. Pay attention to the release of the August CP [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA US commercial crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices continued to rise, supported by short - term geopolitical risks. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp varied. The futures price of pulp decreased. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [74][75]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was range - bound. The futures price fluctuated. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [76][77]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price of Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical remained stable. The futures price increase declined. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The futures price increase declined. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies [79]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The proportion of West African dry bulk freight volume soared. The container freight rate price inflection point was confirmed. It is recommended to pay attention to the decline slope of the freight rate [80][82][83].

当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布多项关税协议：自8月1日起，对印度商品征收25%关税；自8月 1日起，对进口半成品铜及铜密集型衍生产品征收50%普遍关税；对巴西加征40%关税，总关税达50%； 同时暂停对低价值货物的最低限度免税待遇；与韩国达成贸易协议，将对韩征收15%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%不变，符合市场预期，这是美联 储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。利率决议投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票，其中 理事沃勒和鲍曼支持降息25个基点，这是自1993年以来美联储首次有两名理事对利率决定提出异议。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为 时过早。 美股方面，三大指数涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌0.12%。 大型科技股涨跌互现，英伟达涨超2%，谷歌、微软小幅上涨，苹果跌超1%，Meta、亚马逊、特斯拉微 跌。热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.82%，蔚来跌超4%，理想汽车跌超3%，拼多 多、小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴、京东跌超1%，百度、网 ...