非农数据高于预期，澳元逆势走强，澳元兑美元AUD/USD日内涨幅扩大至1.00%，现报0.6445。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in the US dollar index and a decline in major currency pairs against the dollar [1] Group 1 - The US dollar index (DXY) increased by over 20 points, currently reported at 99.96 [1] - The euro to US dollar (EUR/USD) and the British pound to US dollar (GBP/USD) both fell by more than 30 points [1] - The US dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY) rose by 50 points [1]

财经网站Forexlive评非农：市场认为非农数据强劲对美元来说是个好消息，我可以支持这一点。 ...

金十数据5月2日讯，由于美元和美国国债收益率下滑，黄金期货在相对清淡的交易中上涨。但在周四的 大幅抛售后，本周整体下跌。SP Angel的分析师在一份报告中说，ETF资金外流表明，在今年迄今金价 上涨21%之后，交易员和投资者已经获利了结。SP Angel表示，贸易紧张关系降温正在降低黄金的吸引 力，同时特朗普宣布他不打算解雇鲍威尔。现在的焦点转向将于周五的美国就业数据。如果数据弱于预 期，就会提振人们对美联储降息的乐观情绪，这对无息黄金是一个利好。 美元疲软导致金价上涨，非农弱于预期将利好黄金 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 18,000 to 241,000, the highest level since February, significantly above the market expectation of 223,000 [1] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits rose to 1.92 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating a prolonged reemployment cycle for the unemployed [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims increased to 226,000, which helps smooth out weekly fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment report indicated that U.S. hiring slowed to the lowest level in nine months, with some service sectors experiencing layoffs [2] - Despite expectations that the unemployment rate will remain low at 4.2%, the unusual fluctuations in initial claims have cast a shadow over the job market [2] Group 3 - Following the release of the jobless claims data, the U.S. dollar index fell by 17 points, currently reported at 99.74 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with key levels identified at 3300 for potential long positions and 3259-3386 as the expected range before the non-farm payroll data release [1][2] - The strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips, particularly around 3305, with targets set at 3315-3325, while also considering short positions if the price fails to break above 3330 [2][4] - Resistance levels are noted at 3315, 3325, and further up at 3340, with support identified at 3270-3260 [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have broken below the $60 mark, indicating a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines due to lack of buying momentum [4][6] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at 60.3, 61.1, and 62.7, while support is seen at 59, with further levels at 58 and 56.8 [4][6] - The recommended strategy is to focus on short positions during rebounds, with potential long positions only considered at lower levels [4][6]

相关链接 非农数据倒计时！黄金窄幅震荡是"蓄力"还是"熄火"？投行预计今年黄金的平均价格将达到....点击阅 读。 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on U.S. stock markets and gold prices, highlighting a nearly 7% pullback in gold prices and shifts in "smart money" positions [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline of nearly 7%, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The positioning of "smart money" suggests a strategic shift that may reveal underlying market dynamics [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators point to short-term pullback risks, suggesting that traders should be cautious ahead of key economic data releases [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of adjusting positions in anticipation of market volatility driven by upcoming data [1] Group 3: Policy and Fund Flow Signals - The article highlights the need to analyze policy shifts and fund flow signals as they may influence market trends and investment strategies [1] - It suggests that understanding these signals is crucial for making informed decisions in the current market environment [1]

一、非农前言——总数据分析 美国5月份发布的非农数据将于北京时间5月2日20:30公布，市场焦点集中于劳动力市场是否延续放缓趋势。3月非农新增就业22.8万人，远超预期的13.5万， 失业率微升至4.2%，但薪资增速放缓至环比0.3%。这一数据表明劳动力市场仍具韧性，但薪资压力缓解可能为美联储政策转向提供空间。 当前市场对4月非农的预期存在分歧：一方面，关税政策引发的供应链扰动可能抑制就业增长；另一方面，服务业需求韧性或支撑就业市场。需重点关注失 业率、薪资增长及行业就业分布变化，尤其是制造业和建筑业的表现。 二、小非农ADP及大非农预测 1.小非农ADP 前值：3月ADP新增就业15.5万人（预期11.8万），显示私营部门就业回暖。 前值：3月非农新增22.8万人，失业率4.2%，薪资环比0.3%。 预测：4月非农预计新增12.9万人，失业率升至3.8%，薪资环比增长0.3%。制造业就业或因关税冲击减少，服务业就业仍为主要支撑。 上月影响：3月非农公布后，金价短暂承压至3260美元/盎司，但因薪资增速放缓，市场对降息预期升温，金价快速反弹至3318美元/盎司。 4月非农就业人口变动数据将于2025年5月02 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on market dynamics, suggesting that the battle between bulls and bears may intensify [1] - It highlights the importance of real-time analysis of order flow signals in understanding market movements during this critical period [1] - The content encourages viewers to subscribe for insights on futures and commodity trends, indicating a focus on market analysis and trading strategies [1]