Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report serves as a "thermometer" for economic health and a "compass" for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, significantly impacting global financial markets and the Fed's decisions [1] - Strong non-farm data indicates a tight labor market, potentially increasing wage growth and inflation pressure, leading the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to prevent economic overheating [1] - Conversely, weak data suggests a slowdown in job growth, prompting the Fed to maintain accommodative policies to stimulate the economy, making non-farm data a key indicator for observing Fed policy trends [1] Group 2 - Investors using the Lingsheng Precious Metals platform can capture trading opportunities around non-farm data releases through real-time market data and a fast transaction system [2] - The platform supports a T+0 trading model, allowing investors to quickly close positions for profit after data releases, with continuous market analysis to aid rational decision-making [2] - The timing of non-farm report releases often creates short-term market volatility, providing profit opportunities for gold traders, with Lingsheng's stable trading environment facilitating precise investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by factors such as interest rate expectations, trade agreements, and market sentiment towards non-farm payroll data. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 1, gold prices opened at $3302.91 per ounce, reached a low of $3302.19, and peaked at $3357.90 before closing at $3338.71, marking a daily increase of $35.8 or 1.08% [1][3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to mixed economic data, with expectations for non-farm payroll data influencing gold price movements [3][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The decline in the US dollar index and the anticipation of interest rate cuts have provided support for gold prices, despite some technical resistance [3][5] - The market is currently awaiting key employment data, including the Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures, which are expected to be bearish for gold prices [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a potential interest rate cut in July, which has bolstered bullish sentiment for gold [7] - President Trump's stance on not extending the July 9 trade negotiation deadline has raised concerns about trade agreements, further increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a bearish outlook for gold prices, but they remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for further gains unless this support is broken [9] - Short-term technical indicators show that gold prices are facing resistance at the middle Bollinger Band, but support levels are present at various moving averages [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels for gold include support at $3333 or $3320 and resistance at $3348 or $3360 [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising value of gold due to a weakening dollar, increasing uncertainty around U.S. trade agreements, and heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Gold prices reached a three-day high of 3357.88, driven by global economic uncertainties and the market's anticipation of at least two rate cuts by 2025 [1] - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to influence U.S. Treasury yields, with potential implications for gold prices [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bullish short-term trend for gold, with MACD showing a bottom divergence and prices moving above previous resistance levels [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes buying gold on dips around the 3330-3335 range, with a stop loss at 3327 and a target of 3350-3360 [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor geopolitical risks that may drive safe-haven demand for gold [3]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of 3245, influenced by optimistic trade agreements and stable geopolitical conditions, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The market is expected to see significant changes this week, with attention on non-farm payroll data and central bank leaders' speeches, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold from May 30 to June 30 shows a cycle of highs and lows, with a peak at 3451 and a low at 3245, indicating a potential adjustment phase before a possible recovery [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have also seen a significant decline, with Shanghai gold dropping from 793 to 762, but the bullish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential rebound if key support levels are maintained [6] - The focus for domestic gold this week is on support levels of 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, with potential upward movement if these levels hold [6] - International silver has shown a rebound after two declines, maintaining a bullish trend, with support at 35.2 and targets at 36.5 and 37 for potential trading strategies [6][7] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver contract continues to exhibit a bullish trend, with key support at 8600 and targets at 8900 and 9000, indicating opportunities for long positions [7] - International crude oil has shown limited volatility after a significant drop, with a focus on the 64 support level for potential rebounds, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish [7][8] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone considerable adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with expectations of reaching higher points around 3000 and 3200 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows short - term strength due to geopolitical and macro factors but faces medium - term pressure from OPEC+ production increases and the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term due to cost - side pressure and a supply - demand imbalance [7]. - The rubber market has a bearish medium - term outlook because of supply increases in the main producing areas and weak terminal demand [8]. - The synthetic rubber market is also bearish in the medium term due to raw material supply pressure and weak demand [12]. - The PX market has a relatively strong fundamental outlook in the short term, but the medium - term situation depends on the progress of maintenance and crude oil prices [18]. - The PTA market has weakened supply - demand conditions compared to before, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - The PP market has weak demand in the off - season and an expected increase in supply, and cost fluctuations related to crude oil need to be monitored [22]. - The methanol market has medium - term pressure due to high domestic production and inventory accumulation, and investors should wait for short - selling opportunities [26]. - The PVC market has a bearish fundamental situation due to weak downstream demand and stable supply [27]. - The EG market has short - term support from supply tightening and demand, but the medium - term situation is uncertain [31]. - The plastic market is bearish in the medium term due to expected supply increases [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term supply surplus is expected due to OPEC+ production increases, but short - term prices are supported by geopolitical and macro factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After breaking through the previous high of 470, the short - term structure has changed. The short - term strategy is to stop losses on short positions [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The cost side is under pressure as pure benzene inventory is at a 5 - year high, and the supply - demand situation is bearish with high supply and weak demand [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level at 7270 is still valid. The short - term strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 7270 [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The sharp drop in Thai glue prices verifies the supply increase after the start of the harvest season in the main producing areas, and terminal demand is weak [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 14000, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 13800 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market is affected by the expected increase in butadiene supply and weak demand from the tire industry [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 11470, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 11470 [14]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand situation is strong due to the restart of production and maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the cost drive of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply has increased with the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is relatively weak. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure level is 4720, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4720 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and supply is expected to increase due to new device production. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations related to crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 6980, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 6980 [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic production and inventory accumulation lead to medium - term pressure on the market [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support level has risen to 2250. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the price breaks through the support level [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The downstream demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn, and the supply is at a normal level, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 4980, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4850 [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply has tightened due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and demand from the polyester industry is acceptable in the short term. There is short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level has been lowered to 4335, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 4335 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The short - term supply is relatively low due to device maintenance, but there is a large expected increase in supply in June and the second half of the year, so the medium - term outlook is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 7120, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 7120 [34].

非农数据后，黄金适当降温，本周CPI能否改变格局？点击观看GMA助教老师小莫直播分析 相关链接 ...

美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，就业人数增加13.9万人，虽然创2月以来新低，但略高于市场预期的 12.6万人。然而，前两个月的就业数据被合计下调9.5万人，这一修正幅度足以抵消表面上的积极表现。 5月失业率 4.2%，持平预期及前值 4.2%。 在经济放缓的背景下，工资数据反而展现出意外的韧性。5月平均时薪环比增长0.4%，是预期0.2%的两 倍，同比增幅3.9%也超出3.7%的预期。私营非农部门员工平均时薪达到36.24美元。然而，这种工资增 长更多反映的是劳动力供给端的收紧，而非需求端的强劲。报告显示，全职就业岗位减少62.3万个，而 兼职岗位仅增加3.3万个，这表明企业可能正在通过减少用工时间来应对经济不确定性，而不是大规模 招聘。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：上周五公布的非农数据保持韧性，给美联储维持鹰派政策提供了空间，对金银价格进一步上 涨不利，黄金价格在高位进一步承压。展望未来，短期内市场避险需求仍偏弱，货币政策也预计维持鹰 派，并不利于贵金属价格的进一步上涨，预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下继续震 荡，接下来需要重点关注周内即将公布的CPI数据。Comex黄金运行区间3300-345 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of honesty and realism in investment, particularly in gold trading, which is described as both an art and a long-term investment opportunity [1] - The author warns against the risks associated with gold investment, especially for those who are inexperienced or have suffered significant losses [1] - The article highlights the importance of prioritizing family over work and investment, suggesting that investment should be approached with caution [1] Group 2 - The analysis of gold trading indicates a recent downward trend, with prices fluctuating between 3300 and 3375, and a significant bearish signal observed [2] - The article notes that the U.S. dollar's performance is directly impacting gold prices, with expectations of continued volatility due to economic data releases [2] - The author suggests a cautious approach to trading, recommending to monitor the market closely for potential rebounds and to be aware of possible market manipulation [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - In terms of data, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment population for May recorded 139,000, which is the lowest since February and above the market expectation of 130,000 [1] - Regarding interest rate cuts, President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for its delayed actions, noting that Europe has cut rates 10 times while the U.S. has not [1] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data indicates a 99.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with only a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and an 83.4% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July, with a cumulative 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1]

金十数据6月6日讯，斯巴达资本首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，本次非农数据虽略超共识预期及 我个人预测，但除时薪指标外，整体报告并未传递出美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号。事实上，0.4% 的时薪涨幅虽谈不上显著，但已足够引人注目——这直接锁定了美联储的观望立场。尽管就业市场确现 降温迹象（显然归因于贸易战引发的不确定性抑制企业招聘），但归根结底，这份报告料难引发市场大 幅波动，我只能将其归类为平庸之作。 经济学家：非农报告整体未传递美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号 ...