Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicates that the ADP data suggests the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate can be slightly lower than the current level [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a potential shift in monetary policy based on recent employment data [1] - The ADP data is being used as a key indicator for assessing the appropriate level of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, and ending its quantitative tightening policy, with focus on future policy guidance [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a steady pace, but the government shutdown has affected data availability [2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly to 3% in September, while the core inflation rate decreased marginally to 3% [2] - The ADP report indicates an average of 14,250 new jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 11, 2025, totaling approximately 57,000 jobs, significantly above the estimated breakeven point of 30,000 jobs per month [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Analysts expect a division within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, with some members advocating for a larger rate cut, while others may prefer to maintain current rates [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell is likely to frame any rate cuts as risk management measures, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on subsequent data performance [3] - If the ADP data shows a strong rebound, Powell may adopt a more cautious stance regarding future rate cuts, which could be interpreted as a hawkish surprise by the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by over 3 basis points to 4.117% following the release of ADP data [1] Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment and market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]

Core Insights - ADP data shows an increase, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices, testing the support level at 3300 [1] - Short-term bullish sentiment is questioned regarding the potential for a bottom-fishing opportunity in gold [1] Group 1 - The rise in ADP data has implications for market trends, particularly affecting gold prices [1] - The support level of 3300 is critical for gold, indicating a potential turning point for investors [1] - Market analysts are actively monitoring the situation for signs of a recovery or further decline in gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing developments in the US-China trade negotiations and their potential impact on the market, particularly the US dollar and gold prices [4][5][6] - The US dollar index has risen, reaching a five-week high above the 99 mark, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and key economic data [1] - Gold prices have halted a four-day decline, briefly touching the $3330 mark but failing to maintain that level, indicating volatility in precious metals [2] Group 2 - The third round of US-China trade talks has been characterized by constructive dialogue, with both sides recognizing the importance of a stable economic relationship [4] - Continuous communication between the US and China is expected to facilitate the stable and healthy development of bilateral trade relations [5] - The market sentiment suggests that the A-shares in China are likely to continue rising due to positive developments in trade negotiations [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the intensified competition between bulls and bears in the gold market, driven by weak ADP data and the anticipation of non-farm payroll data impacting market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The ADP data released indicates a slowdown in job growth, which may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to be a significant market mover, with potential implications for gold prices [1] - The article suggests that the future performance of gold will be closely tied to these economic indicators and market reactions [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights an unexpected decrease in ADP private employment numbers for June, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the first contraction in employment since March 2023 [1][3] - The weak labor market signals that even with tariff adjustments by the Trump administration, there has been no improvement in employment conditions [1] - Following the ADP report, some economists may lower their expectations for the upcoming employment report, and traders have increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025 [3] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has risen from approximately 20% to 27.4% after the ADP data release [3] - The ADP data, while not a perfect predictor, has shown over 70% consistency with the direction of monthly fluctuations in non-farm payrolls for 2024-2025, indicating potential downside risks for the upcoming non-farm data [3] - If the non-farm employment numbers fall below 150,000, it could strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for international gold prices [3] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a rebound after three consecutive trading days, surpassing the critical level of $3,308 per ounce, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are noted at $3,360 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially moving resistance to $3,446 per ounce, while support remains at $3,308 per ounce [3] - The market strategist suggests that the ADP data reinforces expectations of a cooling job market, but actual non-farm data may exceed expectations, leading to volatile market reactions [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the live broadcast by a trading academy discussing the recent ADP data release and its implications for the gold market [1] - It mentions that the momentum for gold has been relatively weak despite the recent price movements [1] - The article invites viewers to join the live session for insights on how to interpret the market trends during the US trading hours [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing fluctuations in the gold market during the European trading session and highlights the anticipation surrounding the upcoming ADP data release, which may lead to a market breakthrough [1] Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing continued volatility, indicating uncertainty among investors [1] - The release of ADP data is expected to be a significant event that could influence market movements [1]