Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Knot indicates that short-term uncertainties are negatively impacting economic growth and inflation [1] Economic Impact - Short-term uncertainties are creating challenges for economic growth, suggesting a potential slowdown in various sectors [1] - The negative influence on inflation could lead to adjustments in monetary policy and market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of agility and flexibility for policymakers in the context of economic uncertainty [1] - Short-term trade wars can lead to increased uncertainty in the economic environment [1]

美联储古尔斯比：由于不确定性，我再次支持保持观望。 ...

Group 1 - The degree of uncertainty may have slightly decreased [1] - The extent of supply shocks has also lessened [1]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry, particularly in Europe and the U.S., is facing significant challenges due to economic uncertainties, fluctuating tariffs, and declining demand for electric vehicles, leading to a general decline in profitability across major companies [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Bosch Group reported a sales revenue of €90.3 billion for the fiscal year 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with an adjusted decline of 0.5% after currency effects. The EBIT was €3.1 billion, down from €4.8 billion in 2023, resulting in an EBIT margin of 3.5% [1]. - Mercedes-Benz's net profit for Q1 was €1.73 billion, a decrease of approximately 43% year-on-year, while BMW's net profit fell by 26.4% to €2.173 billion. Volkswagen saw a nearly 41% drop in net profit despite a nearly 3% increase in revenue [2]. - Ford's net profit in Q1 dropped by 64.49% to $473 million, while General Motors reported a net profit of $2.8 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is crucial for multinational automotive companies, with electric vehicles rapidly gaining market share at the expense of traditional fuel vehicles. This shift has pressured joint venture brands that primarily focus on fuel vehicles [3][4]. - The competition in the Chinese automotive market is intense, leading to significant price reductions. Entry-level compact fuel vehicles are now priced below ¥80,000, while B-class vehicles have dropped to around ¥150,000 [4][5]. - Luxury brands are experiencing severe price discrepancies, with price reductions reaching up to 50% due to supply-demand imbalances [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Predictions - Bosch aims for an annual sales growth of at least 6% and a profit margin of at least 7% by 2030, despite the current economic uncertainties affecting short-term profitability predictions [6][7]. - Many companies, including Cummins and Mercedes-Benz, have suspended or withdrawn their 2025 profit forecasts due to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies and their potential impacts on consumer behavior and demand [8][9]. - General Motors has also retracted its 2025 performance guidance, anticipating a reduction in EBIT by $4 billion to $5 billion due to tariff impacts [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasizes that uncertainty will continue to be a defining characteristic of monetary policy in the foreseeable future due to structural changes in the global economic environment [1] Group 1 - Williams highlights the current high level of uncertainty and its persistence in the near term [1] - He attributes this uncertainty to structural changes such as artificial intelligence, de-globalization, and innovations in the financial system [1] - Williams refrains from commenting on the economic outlook or specific monetary policy actions [1] Group 2 - The independence of central banks is noted as a factor that can lead to better outcomes in the current uncertain environment [1]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：不确定性并未限制政策选择。 ...

泰国央行行长：美国关税造成非常高的不确定性，关税影响将在第四季度显现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, stated that uncertainty makes it particularly difficult to predict the risks facing the financial system [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, impacting the ability to forecast financial risks [1]

金十数据5月8日讯，投资者正在努力应对特朗普关税对经济影响的不确定性，而现在又要面临的可能性 是，混乱的贸易背景意味着货币政策的路径仍然悬而未决。ClearBridge高级投资策略分析师Josh Jamner 表示，投资者最不喜欢的就是不确定性，而美联储却无法为他们提供确定性。富兰克林坦伯顿投资组合 管理主管Robert Christian表示，鲍威尔和其他投资者一样，只是在等着看事情如何发展。Columbia Threadneedle Investments高级利率策略师Ed Al-Hussainy表示，美联储至少要到9月才会采取行动。要让 美联储在9月之前就开始采取行动，需要出现一些急剧恶化的情况，到9月，我们至少会对方向有更清晰 的了解。 策略师：9月之前美联储难有大动作 ...