人民财讯10月30日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政府停摆将暂时拖累经济活动。 ...

Core Insights - The overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly since the last report, with mixed growth reported across different regions [1] Economic Activity Summary - Three regions reported slight to moderate growth in economic activity [1] - Five regions reported no change in economic activity [1] - Four regions reported a slight slowdown in economic activity [1] Consumer Spending Summary - Overall consumer spending, particularly retail goods spending, has seen a slight decline in recent weeks [1] - Strong demand for electric vehicles boosted auto sales in some regions before the expiration of federal tax credits at the end of September [1] Tourism and Hospitality Summary - Demand from international tourists for leisure and hotel services has further declined [1] - Domestic consumer demand has remained relatively unchanged [1] - High-income individuals continue to spend strongly on luxury travel and accommodations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, indicated that a swift resolution to trade tensions could enhance market sentiment and economic activity [1] Group 1 - The potential resolution of trade tensions is seen as a catalyst for improving market conditions [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a direct link between trade stability and economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia indicates that tariffs are expected to weaken economic activity, particularly in developed countries [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are anticipated to have a negative impact on economic activities [1] - The focus is on the effects of tariffs in developed nations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial conditions are supporting economic activity according to Federal Reserve's Musalem [1] Group 1 - Financial conditions are playing a crucial role in sustaining economic activity [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the first time since February, rebounding 23% from the lows caused by tariffs in April [1] - The market has shown a rapid recovery, with the potential to return to record closing levels in the shortest time after experiencing at least a 15% decline over 89 trading days [1] - Factors such as easing tensions in the Middle East and trade negotiations between the U.S. and major partners have boosted investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the market perceives tariffs as less burdensome than previously anticipated, contributing to a sense of recovery [1] - There are signs of resilient earnings, with economic activity remaining active and inflation not significantly rising [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Schmied indicated that business contacts expect tariffs to increase prices and negatively impact economic activity [1] Group 1 - Business contacts anticipate that tariffs will lead to higher prices [1] - There is a consensus that the economic activity will be dragged down due to the impact of tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's chief economist, Lane, emphasizes that monetary policy must consider not only the most likely scenarios but also the risks to economic activity and inflation [1] Group 1 - The monetary policy approach should incorporate both baseline scenarios and potential risks [1] - Economic activity and inflation are critical factors in shaping monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariffs will depend on their levels, with potential increases this year likely to exert pressure on economic activity and elevate inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - An increase in tariffs may lead to economic activity pressure and higher inflation rates [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Sweden indicates that overall, the outlook for inflation and economic activity suggests that monetary policy is likely to be moderately accommodative [1]