Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience volatile adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The supply side shows that although zinc ore imports have increased and new production capacities are being released, domestic refined zinc production growth is limited due to factors such as reduced processing fees and lower sulfuric acid prices. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors have some policy - supported highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, but the spot premium is high. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious, with attention on the MA60 support[3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,055 US dollars/ton, up 55.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 189,741 lots, down 329 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,728 lots, down 1,037 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 49,925 tons, up 1,925 tons[3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 164.86 US dollars/ton, up 44.09 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 48,630 yuan/ton, up 30,030 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged[3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons[3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons[3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units[3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, down 0.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.97%, down 0.06 percentage points[3]. Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts since the last report, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, and some people point out an increased risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, and the initial value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, while the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%[3].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity has not changed significantly since the last report, with two districts noting a moderate decline and one district reporting moderate growth [1] - Consumer spending has decreased overall, although high-end retail spending remains resilient [1] - Some retailers have reported that the government shutdown has negatively impacted consumer purchasing behavior [1] - Following the expiration of federal tax credits, auto dealers have reported a decline in electric vehicle (EV) sales [1] - The tourism industry has shown little change in recent weeks, with some contacts noting that consumers are cautious about non-essential spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the government shutdown will temporarily hinder economic activity [1] Economic Impact - The government shutdown is expected to have a short-term negative effect on economic performance [1]

Core Insights - The overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly since the last report, with mixed growth reported across different regions [1] Economic Activity Summary - Three regions reported slight to moderate growth in economic activity [1] - Five regions reported no change in economic activity [1] - Four regions reported a slight slowdown in economic activity [1] Consumer Spending Summary - Overall consumer spending, particularly retail goods spending, has seen a slight decline in recent weeks [1] - Strong demand for electric vehicles boosted auto sales in some regions before the expiration of federal tax credits at the end of September [1] Tourism and Hospitality Summary - Demand from international tourists for leisure and hotel services has further declined [1] - Domestic consumer demand has remained relatively unchanged [1] - High-income individuals continue to spend strongly on luxury travel and accommodations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, indicated that a swift resolution to trade tensions could enhance market sentiment and economic activity [1] Group 1 - The potential resolution of trade tensions is seen as a catalyst for improving market conditions [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a direct link between trade stability and economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia indicates that tariffs are expected to weaken economic activity, particularly in developed countries [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are anticipated to have a negative impact on economic activities [1] - The focus is on the effects of tariffs in developed nations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial conditions are supporting economic activity according to Federal Reserve's Musalem [1] Group 1 - Financial conditions are playing a crucial role in sustaining economic activity [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the first time since February, rebounding 23% from the lows caused by tariffs in April [1] - The market has shown a rapid recovery, with the potential to return to record closing levels in the shortest time after experiencing at least a 15% decline over 89 trading days [1] - Factors such as easing tensions in the Middle East and trade negotiations between the U.S. and major partners have boosted investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the market perceives tariffs as less burdensome than previously anticipated, contributing to a sense of recovery [1] - There are signs of resilient earnings, with economic activity remaining active and inflation not significantly rising [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Schmied indicated that business contacts expect tariffs to increase prices and negatively impact economic activity [1] Group 1 - Business contacts anticipate that tariffs will lead to higher prices [1] - There is a consensus that the economic activity will be dragged down due to the impact of tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's chief economist, Lane, emphasizes that monetary policy must consider not only the most likely scenarios but also the risks to economic activity and inflation [1] Group 1 - The monetary policy approach should incorporate both baseline scenarios and potential risks [1] - Economic activity and inflation are critical factors in shaping monetary policy decisions [1]