文/曹萌 4月30日，A股上市公司年报披露接近尾声，从各家银行披露的2024年财报获悉，处在行业腰部的 城商行，整体资产质量有所提升，且在不良贷款率上，东南沿海地区城商行依旧明显低于中西部地区 城商行。 虽然2024年末11家A股上市城商行的不良贷款率较2023年末实现下降，但须格外注意的是整体不良 贷款率的下降源于加大了公司类不良贷款的处置力度，而与此同时城商行的个人贷款不良率却明显增 加。 在处置不良资产方面，对于城商行等中小银行而言，处置个人不良贷款的成本相对较高，且批量处置 难度较大。这就意味着，在净息差进一步收窄的2025年，城商行不仅要面临利息收入压力的增加， 同时还要面对较大的拨备计提压力。 01 两家上市城商行不良贷款率超平均水平 目前，A股上市城商行共17家，其中，沿海省份的商行9家，西部地区的城商行5家，而两者在资产 质量上对比鲜明。 财报显示，截至2024年末，A股上市城商行不良贷款率在1.7%以上的共有三家，分别为兰州银行、 郑州银行和西安银行。其中，兰州银行和郑州银行 的不良贷款率均超过了金融监管总局公布的2024 年末全国城商行平均不良贷款率1.76%。 02 个人贷款不良率普遍提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, which is an improvement of 1.4 percentage points compared to the full-year growth rate of 2024. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, reflecting a decline of 5.5 percentage points from the previous year's growth rate, primarily due to an increase in the effective tax rate [2][4] - The growth in revenue is mainly attributed to a significant increase in non-interest income, which rose by 37.3% year-on-year, while net interest income fell by 4.4% [3][4] - The company's total assets as of March 2025 amounted to 35.98 trillion yuan, with a loan total of 22.61 trillion yuan and deposits of 25.61 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 2.6%, 4.7%, and 5.8% respectively since the beginning of the year [3] Financial Performance Summary - The annualized average return on total assets (ROA) is 0.66%, and the return on equity (ROE) is 9.09% [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year's full decline of 19 basis points [4] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25% as of March 2025, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 198%, down by 2.6 percentage points [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 241.6 billion yuan, 249.4 billion yuan, and 267.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 3.2%, and 7.2% [4][5] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.86 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 6.7x, 6.5x, and 6.1x, and price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.60x, 0.56x, and 0.53x [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a buy rating for the company’s A/H shares [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income for Q1 2025, with net profit down by 2.6% and operating income down by 0.1% [1]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its net interest margin, which decreased to 1.71%, while non-interest income showed strong growth of 14.8% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost optimization, which is reflected in the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 56.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company’s annualized ROE and ROA were 11.33% and 0.58%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The company’s total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 9.8%, and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Credit and Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 266% [4]. - The company’s NPL generation rate increased to 0.88%, indicating a rise in asset quality concerns [4]. Capital and Valuation - The report estimates the company’s EPS for 2025 at 0.88 RMB, with a projected PB ratio of 0.70 for A shares and 0.64 for H shares [5]. - The target prices are set at 6.29 RMB for A shares and 6.17 HKD for H shares [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China Merchants Bank experienced a decline in both operating income and net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, with operating income at 83.751 billion yuan, down 3.09%, and net profit at 37.286 billion yuan, down 2.08% [1] - The bank's net interest income increased by 1.92% year-on-year, reaching 52.996 billion yuan, while non-interest income saw a significant decline of 10.64%, totaling 30.755 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total assets of China Merchants Bank reached 12.529 trillion yuan, a growth of 3.11% from the end of the previous year, with total loans and advances at 7.125 trillion yuan, up 3.44% [1] Group 2 - The bank's non-interest income accounted for 36.72% of total operating income, with net fee and commission income at 19.696 billion yuan, down 2.51% year-on-year, while other net income fell by 22.19% to 11.059 billion yuan, primarily due to the impact of rising market interest rates on the fair value of bond and fund investments [1] - In terms of asset quality, as of the end of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan balance was 66.743 billion yuan, an increase of 1.133 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 410.03%, down 1.95 percentage points from the end of the previous year, and the loan provision ratio was 3.84%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH) with a current price of 14.69 CNY [1]. Core Views - Hangzhou Bank's Q1 2025 report shows strong revenue growth and profitability, with operating income of 9.98 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.02 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year [3][4]. - The bank's annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) stands at 20.6%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for Q1 2025 are 2.2%, 3%, and 17.3% respectively, showing a decline from 2024 by 7.4, 6.5, and 0.8 percentage points [4]. - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are 6.8% and -5.4% respectively, with changes from 2024 of +2.4 and -25.6 percentage points [4]. Credit and Deposit Growth - As of Q1 2025, the growth rates for interest-earning assets and loans are 15.9% and 14.3% respectively, with loan growth slightly decreasing compared to the end of the previous year [5]. - The bank's total deposits increased by 98 billion CNY in Q1, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.1% [6]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 is 1.32%, a decrease of 6 basis points from 2024 [7]. - Non-interest income decreased by 5.4% year-on-year to 3.48 billion CNY, primarily due to a decline in net other non-interest income [8]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains low at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 530.1% [9]. - Capital adequacy ratios as of Q1 2025 are 9.01% for core tier 1, 11.34% for tier 1, and 14.05% for total capital, showing a stable increase [9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with slight adjustments to earnings per share (EPS) estimates due to potential dilution from convertible bonds [10]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.75, 0.65, and 0.56 for 2025-2027 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Shengjing Bank is struggling to transform itself two years after shedding its "Evergrande system" identity, facing significant historical burdens and declining financial performance, with a strategic goal of "stabilizing growth, improving quality, increasing efficiency, and enhancing effectiveness" for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shengjing Bank reported revenue of 8.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 621 million yuan, down 15.21%, marking the fourth consecutive year of revenue and profit decline [2] - The bank's net interest margin was only 0.8%, down 16 basis points year-on-year, significantly lower than the average for commercial banks and city commercial banks, which were 1.52% and 1.38% respectively [4][3] - Total interest-earning assets decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan to 8555.16 billion yuan, a decline of 7.5% year-on-year, with a significant gap between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities [5] Asset Quality and Loan Performance - As of the end of 2024, Shengjing Bank's total assets grew by 4% to 1.12 trillion yuan, with loans issued amounting to 500.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [9] - The bank's corporate loans, which account for over two-thirds of its credit portfolio, reached 337.88 billion yuan, growing by 9.67% year-on-year, while personal loans showed mixed performance with a notable increase in personal consumption loans [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for personal loans was 2.9%, with mortgage loans having a particularly high NPL ratio of 3.66% [12][11] Non-Interest Income - Shengjing Bank achieved non-interest income of 1.69 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 44% year-on-year, attributed to improved investment trading capabilities [7] Market Performance and Shareholder Sentiment - The bank's stock price in the Hong Kong market has been underperforming, trading around 1.06 HKD per share, significantly lower than its initial listing price of 7.65 HKD in 2014, with liquidity issues evident as trading volumes dropped to zero during certain periods [15] - The number of H-share shareholders has dwindled to just 124, reflecting market skepticism regarding the bank's future profitability and growth prospects [15] Strategic Direction - Shengjing Bank is actively pursuing a "de-Evergrande" strategy, having removed references to Evergrande from its annual reports since 2023, and has undergone significant management restructuring to align with its vision of becoming a "good bank for enterprises and the public" [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changsha Bank (601577.SH) with a current price of 9.39 CNY [1]. Core Views - Changsha Bank achieved an operating income of 25.936 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.827 billion CNY, up 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - The bank's loan growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% in loans as of the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong credit demand [6]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% in Q1 2025, contributing 25% to total revenue, reflecting an improvement in the bank's revenue diversification [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Changsha Bank's operating income was 25.936 billion CNY, with a net profit of 7.827 billion CNY, and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.31% [4][28]. - For Q1 2025, the bank reported an operating income of 6.8 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY, both showing a growth of 3.8% year-on-year [4]. Loan and Asset Growth - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 11.3% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, with a significant increase in loan issuance [6]. - The total new loans for 2024 were 56.7 billion CNY, with Q1 2025 alone contributing 42.8 billion CNY, indicating a strong start to the year [6]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for Q1 2025 reached 1.7 billion CNY, up 10% year-on-year, with net fees and commissions contributing significantly to this growth [9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.17% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 312.8%, indicating strong risk management [10][24]. - The bank's credit impairment losses for Q1 2025 were 2.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase, but the overall asset quality remains solid [10]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.7%, indicating a strong capital position despite the expansion of risk-weighted assets [10][27]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025 to 2.02 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 4.64 for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the bank's growth potential and asset quality [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Southwest region of China, comprising Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Tibet, is a significant driver of western development, with several listed banks reporting positive growth in assets and operating performance for 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Scale and Growth - Chengdu Bank is the only bank in the region to surpass 1 trillion yuan in total assets, reaching 1.25 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 14.56% [2][3]. - Chongqing Bank follows with total assets of 856.64 billion yuan, growing by 12.73% [3]. - Guizhou Bank's total assets exceeded 580 billion yuan, with the lowest growth rate among the five banks at 2.29% [3]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank have asset scales below 200 billion yuan, with Luzhou Bank at 171 billion yuan and Yibin Bank at 109.21 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Operating Performance - All five banks reported increases in both operating income and net profit for 2024, with Guizhou Bank showing the highest revenue growth at 9.46% [6][7]. - Chengdu Bank led in revenue with 22.977 billion yuan, a 5.88% increase, although its growth rate has been declining in recent years [7]. - Chongqing Bank's revenue was 13.679 billion yuan, up 3.54%, with a notable increase in non-interest income [7][8]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank had revenues below 5.5 billion yuan, with Yibin Bank's revenue growth slowing significantly [8]. Group 3: Asset Quality - Chengdu Bank boasts the lowest non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 0.66%, while Guizhou Bank has the highest at 1.72%, marking the only increase among the banks [10][11]. - The provision coverage ratio for Chengdu Bank is the highest in the region at 479.28%, indicating strong risk management [10][13]. - Luzhou Bank's NPL ratio decreased to 1.19%, while Chongqing Bank's NPL ratio fell to 1.25% [10][11]. - Yibin Bank's NPL ratio slightly decreased to 1.68%, but it still faces significant risks in certain sectors [11][13].

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is a crucial intersection of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces, with seven listed city commercial banks [1] - In 2024, the total asset scale of these seven banks reached 17.72 trillion yuan, with Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Ningbo Bank each exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1][3] - All seven banks reported positive growth in revenue and net profit, with asset quality remaining strong, as six banks maintained non-performing loan ratios below 1% [1][18] Asset Scale and Growth - Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 39,520.42 billion yuan, a 16.12% increase from the previous year [3][5] - Shanghai Bank's total assets were 32,266.56 billion yuan, growing by 4.57% [3][5] - Ningbo Bank's total assets amounted to 31,252.32 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.25% [3][5] - Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Huishang Bank surpassed 20 trillion yuan in assets, while Suzhou Bank had the smallest asset scale at nearly 700 billion yuan [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - Jiangsu Bank led in revenue with 808.15 billion yuan, marking an 8.78% increase [10][12] - Ningbo Bank followed with 666.31 billion yuan in revenue, up 8.19% [10][12] - Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue growth rate of 11.32%, the only bank with double-digit growth [10][12] - Net profit for Jiangsu Bank exceeded 300 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76% [13][12] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for Jiangsu Bank was 0.89%, while Ningbo and Hangzhou Banks had the lowest at 0.76% [18][19] - Shanghai Bank had the highest non-performing loan ratio at 1.18% [17][18] - The provision coverage ratios for most banks were robust, with Jiangsu, Nanjing, and Ningbo Banks exceeding 300% [20][18] Loan Distribution - Jiangsu Bank's loans in Jiangsu province accounted for 86.13% of its total loans, with significant portions also allocated to the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [7] - Nanjing Bank's loans were primarily distributed in Jiangsu, with 84.92% of its loans in the province [7] - Huishang Bank's loans were predominantly in Anhui, making up 88.87% of its total [8]

一、 2024 年经营有所回稳，利润仍在低位 截至 2024 年末，渤海银行总资产达到 1.84 万亿元 ，同比增长 6.41% ；当年实现营业收入 254.82 亿元 ，同比增长 1.94% ，营业收入在连续三年下降后终于在 2024 年实现正增长；当年归母净利润为 52.56 亿元 ，同比增长 3.4% ， 归母净利润也在经历 2 年连续负增长后实现了增速归正 。 二、净息差股份行最低，收入利润增长靠金融投资 2024 年，渤海银行净息差为 1.31% ，虽较 2023 年上升了 17 个 BP ，但仍处于相对较低水平，且 在 12 家股份行中最低。 | 银行名称 | 净息差 | 净利差 | | --- | --- | --- | | 招商银行 | 1. 98% | 1.86% | | 平安银行 | 1. 87% | 1. 83% | | 兴业银行 | 1. 82% | 1.56% | | 中信银行 | 1. 77% | 1. 71% | | 浙商银行 | 1. 71% | 1.52% | | 华夏银行 | 1.59% | 1. 61% | | 光大银行 | 1.54% | 1. 45% | | 广发银行 ...