投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 下游追涨情绪谨慎，尿素价格再度转弱 ——尿素周报2025.06.23 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——下游追涨情绪谨慎，尿素价格再度转弱 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：部分装置存检修计划，供应预计将有所减量； | | | | | 2. 需求：农需部分跟进，出口需求逐步释放； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存压力有所缓解； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比增加； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏强运行，09基差走强。 | | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | 短期盘面 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.13」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4 来源：博易大师 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场延续弱势运行，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂降至1700-1750 元/吨，均价环比下降105元/吨。 行情展望：近期新增煤制生产企业装置停车，国内尿素日产量小幅下降，下周暂无企业计划停车， 3-4家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量增加的概率较大。近期农业需求不温 不火，虽然局部区域仍在推进，但市场情绪悲观下各地农业需求量并未形成联动；国内工业刚需 减弱，随着市场进入传统需求淡季，国内复合肥企业装置开工率下降。市场情绪偏弱，尿素工厂 出货不畅，本周国内尿素企业库存继续增加，短期仍有小幅增长趋势。 策略建议： UR2509合约短线建议在1640-1700区间交易。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素期货价格走势 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收跌，周度-3.4 ...

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 06 月 13 日 尿素：短期驱动仍向下，弱势运行 | 杨级以 | | --- | 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,646 | 1,667 | -21 43133 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,654 | 1,674 | -20 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 232,160 | 189,027 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 307,079 | 287,041 | 20038 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,967 | 6,042 | -75 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 768,173 | 632,976 | 135197 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 9 4 | 8 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面持续回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产， 库存略有累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求短期偏弱。 尿素整体供过于求明显，5月中旬尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得 出口利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1850（+0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差172，升贴水比例9.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131万吨（+12.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面持续回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产， 库存略有累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求短期偏弱。 尿素整体供过于求明显，5月中旬尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得 出口利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1800（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差80，升贴水比例4.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.2万吨（+16.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market continued its weak performance this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,800 - 1,860 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The UR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,700 - 1,800 in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market Price Movement - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed lower this week, with a weekly decline of 2.99% [9]. Inter - delivery Spread - As of June 6, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 51 [12]. Position Analysis - As of June 6, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 6,069, a decrease of 887 from last week [20]. Group 3: Spot Market Domestic Spot Price - As of June 5, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1,870 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 30 yuan [26]. Foreign Spot Price - As of June 5, the FOB price of urea in China was 360 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. Basis - As of June 5, the urea basis was 128 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton from last week [33]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of June 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of June 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.66 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation Production Capacity Utilization and Output - As of June 5, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 143.94 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45%. The production capacity utilization rate was 89.43%, a decrease of 0.40% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [40]. Inventory - As of June 5, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 20.5 tons, unchanged from last week. As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 103.54 tons, an increase of 5.48 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.59% [43]. Export - In April 2025, the export volume of urea was 2,252.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%; the average export price was 217.39 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 22.06% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of June 5, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The weekly average production capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week [49].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产，库 存短期震荡。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工偏高，农业需求短期偏弱。尿 素国际价格强势，5月15-16日尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得出口 利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1820（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差59，升贴水比例3.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.2万吨（+16.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • ...

下游有集港预期，但部分企业出口订单偏少以及国内需求不温不火，企业库存仍有小幅增长趋势。UR2509 尿素产业日报 2025-06-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1774 | 13 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 68 | 3 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 219590 | -11488 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | 9175 | -2915 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6409 | -210 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1860 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1900 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1870 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1900 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 96 | -13 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 355 | 0 F ...

Report Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is weak, with urea export inspections underway and domestic urea exports proceeding in an orderly manner. Downstream industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has weakened, while agricultural demand shows signs of starting but is weaker than expected. Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits, with few maintenance enterprises and high - level device operating rates. The daily urea output will remain at a high level. The urea export window is open, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased, leading to increased willingness of factories to ship goods to ports and rising port inventories. It is recommended to continuously monitor the start of downstream agricultural demand for urea and relevant export policies [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16] 2. Urea Production - Covers the weekly urea production and the loss of urea device maintenance [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [22][24][26] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Contains FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of domestic urea, price differences, and export and disk export profits [29][34][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Comprises the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises [49][45] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume [48][51][54] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On June 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,761 yuan/ton (- 12). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,850 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,870 yuan/ton (0), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (0). The price of small - sized anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (0). The basis in Shandong was 109 yuan/ton (+ 12), in Henan was 89 yuan/ton (+ 12), and in Jiangsu was 139 yuan/ton (+ 12). The urea production profit was 403 yuan/ton (0), and the export profit was 487 yuan/ton (0) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.83% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.06 million tons (+ 6.32), and the port sample inventory was 20.50 million tons (+ 0.20) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.09% (+ 2.52%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.98% (- 3.51%), and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises was 5.88 days (- 0.06) [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.05.30」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场偏弱窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1820-1860元/ 吨，均价环比持平。 行情展望：前期检修装置陆续恢复，上周国内尿素日产量提升，下周预计1家企业计划停车，1-2 家停车企业可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量下降的概率较大。近期由南向北麦收逐 渐展开，农业需求处于麦收空档期。国内工业刚需减弱，随着高氮肥生产进入收尾阶段，国内复 合肥产能利用率下降。尿素出口尚处于法检阶段，暂未有大量集港需求，但出口政策落地后部分 工厂库存预留给出口，也导致本周尿素企业库存增加。 策略建议： UR2509合约短线预计在1760-1840区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素期货价格走势 郑州尿素期货价格走势 来源：博易大师 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收跌，周度-2.96 %。 4 「 期货市场情况」 ...