以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 来源|表外表里 文|陈梓洁 严贝贝 编辑|曹宾玲 一阵开卷门的声音传来，百荣酒水商户芳芳低头看了眼手机，已经中午 11 点了。 她 所 在 的 批 发 市 场 ， 号 称 " 白 酒 界 宇 宙 中 心 " ， 地 位 就 像 华 强 北 之 于 手 机 、 水 贝 之 于 黄 金，业内任何风吹草动，第一时间会传递到这里。 然而如今，偌大的商场仿佛生了锈的链条，商户开门营业的时间越来越晚，物流车停在门 口，一整天也装不满发车。 经销商海涛以前有个小仓库，现在退掉了，只做 "快进快出"的生意：从上级经销商那里 直接寄给客户，除了货款，搬运、换标等事情概不经手。 他连接单都不积极了，如果不是老客户找上门，很多时候海涛都不开张： "没利润，都是 平价进平价出，顺手做人情，但人家以为你还挣几块钱。" 跟酒打了近 2 0 年的交道，海涛也算小有见识，行业低迷至此，却是第一次碰上。 今 年 618 ， 5 0 0ml 飞 天 茅 台 " 到 手 价 " 只 要 1968 元 ， 击 穿 2 0 0 0 警 戒 线 ； 五 粮 液 " 普 五"一度 ...

6月23日，洋河股份在其官方微博发文称："很荣幸与东哥在沙漠欢聚，共话桑梓。这么多年，东哥对宿 迁念兹在兹，对家乡、对洋河的支持，我们铭记于心……"配图中出现了刘强东、张联东及中国酒业协 会理事长宋书玉等人。 据了解，洋河与京东双方将在供应链优化、新产品开发、数字化营销、人工智能应用等多个维度发力。 此次洋河还针对居家小酌、朋友聚会等场景，为京东定制了211ml小瓶装、618ml装光瓶酒，并结合京 东到家提供"小时达"服务，提升消费便捷性。目前洋河光瓶酒新品已在京东开启独家预售。 对此，行业人士认为，洋河光瓶酒新品"绑定"京东，可以利用京东6亿活跃用户、3000万酒类消费人群 资源，通过AI推荐、直播带货等精准触达目标客群。 从消费趋势来看，当前白酒消费呈现"饮酒量理性、价格理性、风格理性"的特征，定位平价的光瓶酒在 此背景下迎利新机遇。据行业预测，光瓶酒市场规模约950亿元，年增速10%-15%，未来或突破1500亿 元。 名酒品牌"降维"布局低端市场？洋河近日推出的光瓶酒新品受到行业关注。 6月22日，"兄弟携手共创未来"洋河大曲高线光瓶酒战略发布会在内蒙古包头举行。发布会现场，洋河 大曲高线光瓶酒亮相， ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with Kweichow Moutai's market dynamics significantly impacting the entire supply chain [1] Price Trends - In June, the wholesale prices of Kweichow Moutai showed a downward trend, with the price for the 25-year 53-degree 500ml original and bulk Moutai dropping to 1935 RMB and 1870 RMB respectively on June 23, down from 2020 RMB and 1970 RMB on June 17 [1][3][4] Sales Performance - From January to May, Kweichow Moutai's products experienced stable growth on major e-commerce platforms like JD.com and Tmall, with significant sales increases during the "6.18" shopping festival [5] - Feedback from distributors indicates that the overall market for Kweichow Moutai has shown strong resilience, maintaining stability despite price fluctuations [5] Stock Market Impact - The decline in Moutai's prices has led to a corresponding adjustment in its stock price, which is approaching the 1400 RMB mark, with a reported price of 1422.83 RMB per share on June 23, down 0.41% [6][7] Market Challenges - Analysts highlight that offline distributors are facing challenges due to price inversions and high inventory levels, which may lead to aggressive selling behaviors that could further depress product prices [8] - The overall baijiu market is experiencing a "volume and price decline" scenario, with a need for recovery anticipated around the upcoming consumption peaks during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [8] Industry Dynamics - The Chinese liquor market is seeing increased concentration, with leading companies demonstrating strong resilience, while overall operational metrics are declining [9] - The industry is in a phase of "stock competition + structural upgrade," requiring companies to enhance quality and efficiency from the supply side while accurately reaching demand from the consumer side to reshape growth logic [9]

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 越陈越香的白酒，囤久了却卖不动。 作者丨 陈梓洁 严贝贝 编辑丨 曹宾玲 来源丨 表外表里 一阵开卷门的声音传来，百荣酒水商户芳芳低头看了眼手机，已经中午 11 点了。 她所在的批发市场，号称 "白酒界宇宙中心"，地位就像华强北之于手机、水贝之于黄金，业内任何 风吹草动，第一时间会传递到这里。 然而如今，偌大的商场仿佛生了锈的链条，商户开门营业的时间越来越晚，物流车停在门口，一整天 也装不满发车。 经销商海涛以前有个小仓库，现在退掉了，只做 "快进快出"的生意：从上级经销商那里直接寄给客 户，除了货款，搬运、换标等事情概不经手。 他连接单都不积极了，如果不是老客户找上门，很多时候海涛都不开张： "没利润，都是平价进平价 出，顺手做人情，但人家以为你还挣几块钱。" 跟酒打了近 20 年的交道，海涛也算小有见识，行业低迷至此，却是第一次碰上。 芳芳现在每天什么都不干，两眼一睁就要亏 3000 元。 上月中旬，观察到春节大批出货对酒价的影响趋于平稳，淡季走到尾声，她赶紧进了 100 多件红花 郎 ...

作 者丨茅宁 业内人士对投资快报记者表示，去金融属性，供应未减少，叠加需求下滑，茅台的价格预计 还将持续回落，甚至不排除会跌破1499元；而茅台降价对其他高端白酒品牌尤其是最接近茅 台的五粮液构成价格挤压和需求分流压力。广州的一位投资者认为， 飞天茅台价格跳水将削 弱包括五粮液等在内其他高端白酒性价比优势。 "茅台持续降价还可能引发渠道恐慌性抛售， 进一步恶化五粮液等高端白酒的终端动销预期。" 本期编辑 刘雪莹 茅台股价跌至1400元关口！1个月市值蒸发2500亿元 泡泡玛特一新店，开业2小时卖光闭店！黄牛不炒茅台炒Labubu，月入数万元 成本几十，竟卖899元！直播间 "陈年酱香" 猫腻曝光：酒精勾兑、年份造假 SFC 21君荐读 投资快报记者关注到，在6月11日25年飞天茅台散瓶价"历史性"地跌破2000元/瓶的"心理防 线"后，飞天茅台似乎陷入下滑通道。6月15日，25年原箱和24年散瓶也宣告 "破防"，当日两 者批发参考价均为1990元，分别较上一日下跌了10元和20元。6月20日，24年原箱也加入 到"破防"的队伍中去，当日率先"破防"的25年散瓶价退守至1900元/瓶。 此外，6月22日，还有多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of Feitian Moutai have significantly declined, with various vintages experiencing substantial drops, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics for high-end liquor [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of June 22, 2023, the wholesale price of 25-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is reported at 1935 yuan per bottle, down 10 yuan from the previous day, while the price for loose bottles is 1870 yuan, down 30 yuan [1][2]. - The 24-year Feitian Moutai (original box) has seen a drastic drop to 1450 yuan, down 510 yuan, and the loose bottle price is now 1900 yuan, down 30 yuan [1][2]. - The 23-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is priced at 2100 yuan, down 50 yuan, and the loose bottle price is 2030 yuan, also down 50 yuan [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Following a historic drop below the psychological price of 2000 yuan per bottle for 25-year Feitian Moutai, the market appears to be in a downward trend, with multiple vintages experiencing price drops [3]. - The price of the Zodiac Snake edition, which was 3800 yuan at the beginning of the year, has fallen to 2230 yuan, marking a decline of over 41% from its peak [3]. - The newly released Shengle Feitian is now priced at 2300 yuan, down from 3400 yuan, reflecting a decrease of over 32% [3]. E-commerce Impact - On e-commerce platforms, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has also dropped, with some listings showing prices as low as 1820 yuan per bottle [4]. - The price for a double bottle set of Feitian Moutai is reported at 3600 yuan, averaging 1800 yuan per bottle, with guarantees against counterfeit products [4]. Competitive Pressure - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other premium liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, which has also seen price reductions [4][7]. - Wuliangye's 52-degree version is now priced at 905 yuan per bottle, down from 950 yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating a 4.74% decrease [4]. - The ongoing price drop of Feitian Moutai may lead to panic selling in distribution channels, further impacting the sales expectations for other high-end liquor brands [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 食品饮料 沪深300 食品饮料 周观点：啤酒旺季重视成长，白酒企业持续变革 投资建议：1、白酒：股东大会展现白酒企业理性客观、持续深化变革、 重视股东回报，优质龙头配置价值凸显，行业静待边际改善，建议关注 "优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒 企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利 延续，高确定性区域酒：今世缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大 单品红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、 水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品： 珠啤董事长换届落地，百润崃州上新，IFBH 通过港交所聆讯：1）高 景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只 松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、卫 龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、 伊利股份、 ...

Core Insights - The price of Feitian Moutai has been declining, with the latest wholesale reference price on June 19 showing a drop to 1980 RMB per bottle for the 25-year Feitian Moutai, down 20 RMB from the previous day [2] - The decline in price is attributed to multiple market factors, including a significant reliance on business dining, which accounts for 42.22% of white liquor consumption scenarios in China [2] - The recent 618 e-commerce promotion has disrupted the traditional pricing structure, with platforms like Meituan and JD.com offering significant discounts, leading to a widening price gap between online and offline sales [3] Market Dynamics - The price drop has led to consumer behavior changes, with potential stockpiling of Feitian Moutai as a preferred brand, but also creating hesitation among consumers to make purchases [3] - Distributors are facing challenges due to the price drop, with some resorting to low-price sales to mitigate losses, indicating this is one of the most significant price adjustments in recent years [3] - Recovery agents are also experiencing losses, with reports of unsold stock leading to financial strain [4] Industry Trends - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices has been ongoing since last year, with the market now facing high inventory levels and slowing growth [4] - Moutai is adopting strategies to expand its customer base and accelerate internationalization in response to the current market challenges [4] - The price fluctuations may represent an opportunity for industry transformation, as Moutai's focus on youth and international markets aims to reshape brand value [5]

曾经的"理财神器"飞天茅台，如今却成了黄牛们甩也甩不掉的"烫手山芋"。价格跌破2000元，昔日疯抢的盛况已成云烟，取而代之的是亏本甩卖的无奈。白 酒股应声下跌，无数投资者深陷其中，血本无归。 这突如其来的变局，究竟是如何发生的？普通投资者又该如何自处？ 贵州回收茅台的老李，便是这波行情下的一个缩影。去年高价收购的大批飞天茅台，如今价格暴跌，最终以亏损一辆奔驰的惨痛代价，认清了现实的残酷。 不仅是老李，许多小型烟酒店和专营店也开始缩减业务，甚至将茅台下架，避免尴尬的询价。 朋友圈和二手平台上，充斥着低价转让飞天茅台的信息，"保 本出"、"亏本也要脱手"的呼声此起彼伏，与几年前的"惜售"形成鲜明对比。 "茅台镇从不相信眼泪，只有行情说了算"，这句冷酷的话，道出了残酷的现 实。 飞天茅台曾被视为"硬通货"，用途广泛，甚至有人将其当成"理财产品"，定期购入，期待未来高价卖出。然而，如今这一逻辑已彻底崩塌。 茅台价格暴跌的原因，并非单一因素，而是多重因素共同作用的结果。首先，消费需求放缓，高端白酒不再是送礼的首选；其次，资本市场对白酒行业的预 期下降，机构资金撤离，导致整个板块下行；最后，市场监管趋严，国家加强对炒酒行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Xijiu Investment Holding Group has experienced a slowdown in growth after its independence from Moutai, with first-quarter revenue of 7.18 billion yuan, a 10.7% year-on-year increase, falling below the industry average growth rate of 15% for 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Xijiu's revenue surged from 1.6 billion yuan before acquisition to over 20 billion yuan at independence, capturing 12.3% of the sauce-flavored liquor market [3]. - In 2023, Xijiu reported revenue of 19.9 billion yuan and a profit of 9 billion yuan, with sales reaching 22.447 billion yuan, indicating a more subdued performance compared to previous years [4]. - The company aims to exceed 24 billion yuan in sales in 2024, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth, which, while above the industry average, shows a decline from its earlier rapid growth [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - After separating from Moutai, Xijiu faces significant challenges in establishing its brand identity, with 67% of consumers still associating it with Moutai [10]. - Competitors such as Langjiu, Guotai, and Jinsanjiao pose strong competition, with Langjiu having a higher brand recognition among consumers at 58% compared to Xijiu's 35% [9]. - Xijiu's flagship products, Junpin Xijiu and Jiao Cang 1988, are experiencing severe price declines, with Junpin Xijiu's market price dropping to around 665 yuan, significantly below its suggested retail price of 1498 yuan [11][13]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - To address the challenges, Xijiu is investing 8.4 billion yuan to build a production capacity of 100,000 tons, aiming for a base liquor reserve of 250,000 tons by 2025 [7]. - The company is also attempting to penetrate the high-end market with products like the "Junpin・Master Collection," which utilizes 30-year-old base liquor to enhance quality and brand image [5]. - Xijiu is targeting younger consumers through collaborations with popular games and esports events, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen [8]. Group 4: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Xijiu is currently facing a significant pricing issue, with its two main products priced below their production costs, leading to a price inversion problem [10][14]. - The company has adjusted its marketing strategy by eliminating reverse red envelopes to stabilize pricing, but the effectiveness of this measure is still uncertain [16].