Core Insights - The article discusses China's potential economic growth and development strategies outlined by Chen Wenling, emphasizing the country's ambition to become a super-large economy by 2030 [1][3][4] Economic Predictions - By 2030, China's GDP could reach 190 trillion yuan, with a purchasing power parity estimate of 53 trillion USD, solidifying its status as a super-large economy [1] - China aims to establish itself as a super-large entity in the real economy, focusing on strengthening its industrial base amidst a global trend of financialization [1] - The market size is projected to grow from 700 trillion yuan in 2024 to 1,070 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating a significant expansion of the unified socialist market [1] Urban Development - China is expected to form super-large urban clusters, with three world-class city clusters planned: the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Yangtze River Delta [3] - By 2030, it is anticipated that five cities will achieve a GDP of 5 trillion yuan, enhancing local economic sustainability and overall urban competitiveness [3] Strategic Initiatives - The Belt and Road Initiative has fostered deeper international cooperation over the past 12 years, serving as a strategic depth for developing countries and reshaping geopolitical relationships [3] Challenges and Reforms - China faces various existing and emerging challenges, including avoiding the pitfalls of excessive financialization seen in Western economies and ensuring a balance between supply and demand in the unified market [4] - The urgency of implementing over 300 reform measures proposed during the Third Plenary Session is highlighted, with a focus on improving national governance capabilities [4] - Ongoing improvements in people's livelihoods, particularly in education, healthcare, and elderly care, are essential for sustainable development [4]

Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, the fiscal financing scale reached a historical high, with net government financing amounting to CNY 14.36 trillion, accounting for an estimated 10.2% of GDP[1] - The general public budget deficit reached CNY 56,600 billion, an increase of CNY 16,000 billion from 2024, marking a deficit ratio of 4% for the first time[12] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity compared to previous years[15] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintained a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025, with the R007 average rate around 1.50%, reflecting a low interest rate environment[25] - The frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025 were more cautious than in 2024, with only one reduction of 10 basis points for the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[28] - Social financing growth showed a "front high and back stable" trend, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in July 2025, before gradually declining to 8.5% by October[30] Policy Coordination - The central bank's adjustment of government bond trading operations in 2025 demonstrated a flexible response to market changes, enhancing the overall effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks were aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios, with CNY 5,000 billion allocated for this purpose in 2025[43] - The government emphasized the need for fiscal policy to support economic growth and structural transformation, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% for 2026[3]

深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神 以高质量发展新成效谱写中国式现代化新篇章 郑栅洁 习近平总书记强调，研究制定好"十五五"规划，对于推动我国经济社会持续健康发展，为如期基本实现 社会主义现代化奠定更加坚实的基础，具有重大意义。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于 制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》），全面贯彻习近平新时代中 国特色社会主义思想，是乘势而上、接续推进中国式现代化建设的又一次总动员、总部署。我们要深入 学习领会全会精神，以高度的政治自觉和行动自觉狠抓贯彻落实，推动"十四五"规划圆满收官，扎实做 好"十五五"时期经济社会发展各项工作。 一、"十四五"发展成就为"十五五"经济社会发展奠定坚实基础 "十四五"时期我国发展历程极不寻常、极不平凡，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族 人民，迎难而上、砥砺前行，五年规划主要目标任务即将胜利完成，我国经济实力、科技实力、综合国 力跃上新台阶，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展扎实推进，"十四五"前四年经济平均增速达到5.5%，在世界主要经济体 中名列 ...

Group 1 - The core observation window of the 14th Five-Year Plan is set for 2026-2027, focusing on technology and consumption to address structural contradictions of supply surplus and insufficient consumption [1][5] - The economic growth target for 2025 is expected to maintain around 5%, with investment being a short-term growth driver [1][5] - The plan emphasizes the need for a robust social security network to balance technology and consumption by 2027 [1][5] Group 2 - The narrative logic of the revaluation of Chinese assets has become central on the global investment stage, with policy recognition of the dangers of a "low-price cycle" deepening [2][6] - Innovations in AI, smart driving, and biopharmaceuticals demonstrate the investment value of Chinese enterprises amid multiple challenges [2][6] - Global funds are increasingly confident in allocating to RMB assets, transitioning from "asset scarcity" to diversified equity asset allocation [2][6] Group 3 - The "East Stable, West Fluctuating" framework underlines the stability of Chinese policies, active enterprises, and flowing funds as foundational elements [3][6] - The 14th Five-Year Plan further solidifies the foundation of "East Stability" by emphasizing technology while considering livelihood and consumption [3][6] - The U.S. faces policy uncertainties and high debt, leading to a decline in the actual yield of dollar assets, which diminishes their attractiveness [4][8] Group 4 - The "East Stable, West Fluctuating" framework indicates that global funds seeking safety will flow towards stable markets like China, while growth-seeking funds will target high-growth sectors like AI and new energy [4][9] - The dual allocation logic of "safe assets + growth assets" aligns with the top-level design of the 14th Five-Year Plan [9]

推动区域内不同医疗卫生机构作为成员单 位,加强资源共享、业务协作,构建上下 贯通、高效协同的服务网络。 > 疾控机构指导托育、养老机构建立疾 病预防控制制度,加强传染病防控和 应急处置宣传培训。 > 妇幼保健机构加强托育机构婴幼儿常 见病、多发病防控措施宣传,定期开 展巡诊巡查,为儿童提供全面系统的 健康服务。 > 中医医院推广中医药适宜技术,提供 中医药健康服务。 > 二级以上医疗机构发挥技术支撑作 用,承担急危重症救治、转诊等服 务。 > 基层医疗卫生机构发挥日常健康指导 谋篇布局"十五五"·热点问答 发展医育、医养结合服务 不同机构如何分工? "十五五"规划建议提出 发展医育、医养结合服务 发展医育、医养结合服务 是指在一定区域内，医疗机构充分利用专 业技术优势,与托育或养老机构形成紧密 的业务指导和签约服务关系，或者医疗机 构直接办托育机构、医养结合机构,实现 医疗托育、医疗养老融合发展,并带动区 域内相关服务协同发展。 组建多方参与的协作服务网络 文案/制作：石兰 策划：张翀 监制：张益勇 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立 ...

宏 观 研 究 国内政策展望 2025 年 12 月 02 日 2026 年：财政货币政策展望 —— 2026 年展望报告系列之二 政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑 2025 年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。2025 年财政融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达 14.36 万亿元，占 GDP 比例预计为 10.2%。2025 年前三季度广义财政支出同比增长 7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四 季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。2025 年央 行保持流动性合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较 2024 年更为谨慎， 政策节奏前置，社融增速呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025 年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市 场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。2025 年央行分阶段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商 ...

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 11月28日，申万菱信基金董事长陈晓升在2025分析师大会上接受独家访谈，围绕《推动公募基金高质量 发展行动方案》，深入剖析了行业在长期发展中的核心痛点，并系统阐述了公募基金应担当的"三好"使 命。 关于公募基金行业长期发展的核心痛点，陈晓升指出主要集中在以下三点： 在《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》强调权益业务、主动管理与客户回报的背景下，陈晓升提出， 行业应努力成为"三好学生"，即"寻找好资产、创造好产品、担当好顾问"。 在"寻找好资产"方面，陈晓升认为，基金公司构建研究能力至关重要，无论是股票、债券还是基金推 荐，都是资产管理机构的核心能力，关乎能否为投资者带来良好回报。例如，在"十五五"规划建议稿发 布后，如何研判供给端的产业发展趋势、"投资于人"新需求对企业经营的影响，以及高水平开放下的双 循环格局，都值得基金公司深入研究。申万菱信基金正围绕人民对美好生活的向往，遵循信息端、能量 端与生命体熵减逻辑，寻找"智能化、低碳化、品质化"的好资产，并结合"十五五"金融新形势与市场规 律，拓展境内外权益、债券、实物资产、另类资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted expectations for a significant bull market in A-shares, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its focus on innovation, investment in people, and international cooperation, which are anticipated to inject new momentum into the Chinese economy and support its recovery towards 2026 [1][6][7]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Recovery - The current recovery is expected to begin with price increases, influenced by new fiscal measures aimed at public services and living standards, alongside policies to counteract "involution," which may lead to a moderate rise in prices beneficial to innovative companies [2][8]. - This recovery is likely to be structural rather than rapid, driven by advantageous industries and companies, as existing structural issues within the economy, such as real estate adjustments and demographic challenges, remain unresolved [3][9]. - The recovery may also alter financial asset allocation, with a potential decline in bank loan rates being limited, while a shift in wealth from real estate to other financial products is anticipated, promoting a flow of capital towards high-quality assets [4][10].

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of accelerating technological self-reliance as a key focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Industry Opportunities - Future industries such as manufacturing, information technology, materials, energy, space, and health are expected to present significant development opportunities for companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd China M&A Annual Conference emphasizes the importance of ensuring reasonable economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, promoting a consumption-driven economic model, and improving the income distribution system [1][3][13]. Group 1: Economic Growth - The goal for the 14th Five-Year Plan is to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range, with an average GDP growth rate of 4.17% required to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000 by 2035 [4][14]. - In 2024, China's per capita GDP is expected to approach $13,500, indicating a need for sustained growth to meet future targets [4][14]. - The focus should be on both actual and nominal growth, ensuring that nominal growth remains within a reasonable range to support increases in resident income, tax revenue, and corporate profits [5][15]. Group 2: Consumption-Driven Economic Model - The transition to a consumption-driven economic model is essential, as the current economic structure shows a decline in the contribution of domestic demand to growth, which was 71% in the first three quarters of the year [7][18]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to growth has increased, while the contributions from real estate, finance, and construction have significantly decreased [7][17]. - The need to enhance the quality of production and shift towards innovation-driven growth is highlighted as a key factor in achieving sustainable economic development [6][16]. Group 3: Income Distribution System - The income distribution system requires urgent improvement, as the share of resident income in national income has been declining since the 1990s, leading to increased income inequality [9][19]. - Policies should focus on increasing minimum wage standards and enhancing the income of ordinary workers to align initial distribution with economic growth [9][19]. - The implementation of a "rural and urban resident income increase plan" is proposed to effectively raise the disposable income of low-income groups, thereby boosting overall consumption [9][19].