黄金跳水后，再度续跌，3400下方跌超40美金，吞没本周所有涨幅后。上演快涨逆袭，深V反转，或再 看3400，不过整体看承压调整为主。 昨天3352附近，再次做多收获。 当然了，今天跌穿了3345的位置，延续大空走势，持续看向3310的位置。 黄金连涨4个月，到本月迎来了连续3个月调整，整体围绕3300大范围内多空争夺。整体横盘，到本月再 次上演过山车，强势拉升后跳水，大起大落，整体调整上看3400的位置，下方再次回调，持续看向3300 的关口。 今天的走势 昨天跌一天，跌至3350。 再上演快涨逆袭，大涨近40美金。 强势逆转，有望持续反弹。 上看3377的位置，也是重要的阻力区域。 今天再破，上方持续看向3400的阻力。 不过，处在3377下方，持续调整，下方再新低，看向3345的位置。 有望收回本周所有的涨幅，再探3345的支撑。 操作方面，黄金跳水大跌，昨天延续回调，整体看承压和回调的机会，关注3400和3377做空的机会。此 外，黄金下方面临关键支撑，关注3345和3310做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美日达成协议，对于关税的影响持续，而且美释放15%的基本关税，诱惑力很大，或给到了很 多经 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector generally rebounded last weekend and strengthened. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs has temporarily eased, and the market is now focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. China's anti - involution policies and expected major infrastructure projects are boosting the demand for industrial products, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability is average. The current rebound is regarded as a phased one, with short - term cautious bullish operations recommended, while avoiding over - chasing the rise [12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, influenced by trade negotiations, interest - rate cut expectations, China's anti - involution policies, and large - scale infrastructure projects. The market is cautiously bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to specific policies, individual supply - demand drivers, and leading varieties [12][13]. - **Weekly Focus**: Powell's speech, ECB interest - rate decision, European and US economic data, and China's LPR are the key points to watch this week [14]. - **Variety Strategies** - **Copper**: Social inventory is decreasing, supply is expected to tighten, and demand is likely to increase. It is expected to rebound, with a recommended strategy of buying on dips [3][15]. - **Zinc**: It is showing a phased upward trend, with increasing supply and moderate demand. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [4][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is in a volatile consolidation, alumina has a wide - range fluctuation, and cast aluminum alloy is also in consolidation. It is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [5][17]. - **Tin**: Fundamentals are weak, but it is rising due to external factors. Short - term bullish thinking, with attention to the mining end and macro factors [6][17]. - **Lead**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is recovering slowly, and it is in a volatile and weak state. A bearish - on - volatility strategy is recommended [7][18]. - **Nickel**: There is a phased rebound, but the long - term supply - demand situation is bearish. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [9][18]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a range - bound and relatively strong state, with a recommended high - selling and low - buying strategy [9][18]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,890 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; zinc at 23,015 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase; aluminum at 20,760 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; alumina at 3,427 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; tin at 273,950 yuan/ton with a 2.01% increase; lead at 16,890 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; nickel at 124,360 yuan/ton with a 0.80% increase; stainless steel at 12,935 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; and cast aluminum alloy at 20,135 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease [19]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show varying net long - short positions and changes, affected by non - main - force funds or main - force position adjustments [21]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Copper Spot**: Yangtze River spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease; Wumaomao 1 average price is 79,755 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease [22]. - **Zinc Spot**: Yangtze River 0 zinc average price is 22,860 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; Yangtze River 1 zinc is 22,760 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase [22]. - **Aluminum Spot**: Yangtze River average price is 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.67% decrease; Nanchu Foshan A00 aluminum ingot average price is 20,710 yuan/ton with a 0.53% decrease [22]. - **Alumina Spot**: Antai Ke national average price is 3,255 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase; hydrated bauxite in Henan is 550 yuan/ton with no change [22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][30][32]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents multiple charts for different non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, to analyze their arbitrage opportunities, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [56][60][62]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts on option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes for copper, zinc, and aluminum, providing references for option trading [76][78][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall commodity market is affected by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, policy expectations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends such as being strong, weak, or in a range - bound state [4][14]. - Geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine have increased concerns about energy supply disruptions, which has an impact on the prices of commodities such as PX and crude oil [8]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations drive the overall strength of commodities, but external risks such as the potential intensification of the trade war in August also need attention [38][46]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight, with a recommendation of rolling long on spreads. The start - up rate of domestic plants has decreased, and the upcoming production of new PTA plants will increase demand [14]. - **PTA**: The raw material trend is strong as polyester inventory decreases, and there is a suggestion to focus on the spread of long PTA and short PF [4][14]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, driven by the continuous rise in coal prices [4][14]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Although there are some changes in futures prices and trading volume, the overall market lacks a clear trend [15][16]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. Short - term factors such as policy expectations, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals support the price increase, but medium - term supply pressure may limit the upside [20][22]. Asphalt - Asphalt will fluctuate repeatedly. The production and inventory of asphalt have decreased, and the market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [23][24][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE will move in a range. The supply pressure is increasing, while the demand support is weak, and the market is also affected by macro - factors [37][38]. PP - PP's spot price will oscillate with light trading. The futures market has limited impact on the spot, and downstream demand is insufficient [41][42]. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. Although there is short - term positive sentiment, the supply pressure will increase, and it is currently in the off - season of demand [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp will oscillate. The supply - demand fundamentals are in a stalemate, with high inventory on the supply side and weak demand on the downstream side [49][51][53]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market is relatively active due to the influence of the futures and price increase notices [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to run strongly. The spot price is rising, and short - term fundamentals are neutral, with support from rigid demand and supply contraction [58][61]. Urea - Urea will move in a range. The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the demand is weak, and it is also affected by policy expectations [63][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is recommended as a short - position allocation. It is in a situation of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and the port inventory is accelerating the accumulation [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable, with the market expected to be stable and oscillating [69][71]. LPG - The external support for LPG is strengthening, and there is still room for the domestic market to recover. The prices of futures contracts are rising, and the operating rates of related industries are increasing [73]. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. Although there is short - term market strength, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the fundamentals are weak [83][84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline of fuel oil has slowed down, and it rebounded slightly at night. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Hold the reverse spreads of 10 - 12 and 10 - 02. The futures prices of relevant contracts are changing, and different shipping price indices show different trends [90].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: The supply - demand situation remains tight. It is expected to be in a state of unilateral shock and strengthening, and the monthly spread is recommended to be rolled for long positions [8]. - PTA: The raw material trend is strong, with a unilateral upward trend. Attention should be paid to the spread between going long on PTA and shorting PF [8]. - MEG: The unilateral trend turns strong [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. The price of PX increased today, with a September Asian spot deal at 859. Geopolitical tensions drove up crude oil prices, providing additional support for PX. The new PTA factory of Sanfangxiang is expected to start production, boosting the market sentiment in the PX field. However, new tariffs will take effect on August 1st, bringing uncertainty to the PX price [3][5]. - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices in the Chinese mainland this week. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 79.7%, and the calculated operating rate was around 85.8%. The PTA production capacity base in the Chinese mainland has been adjusted to 8851.5 million tons since July 1, 2025 [6]. - **MEG**: As of July 24, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 68.35% (a 2.14% increase from the previous period). A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance around August 7th. Two MEG devices in Saudi Arabia with capacities of 450,000 and 700,000 tons/year have resumed operation [7]. - **Polyester**: The operating load of large - scale domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately today, while the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weakened overall [7][8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a moderately strong trend [8]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Unilateral shock and strengthening, with a strategy of rolling long on the monthly spread. The supply - demand is tight due to factors such as the maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical and the planned production of Sanfangxiang's PTA factory [8]. - **PTA**: Unilateral strengthening. Pay attention to the spread strategy of going long on PTA and shorting PF. The inventory pressure of polyester factories has been greatly relieved, and the overall operating rate is expected to continue to rise [8]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend turns strong, benefiting from the continuous rise in coal prices [8].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

新华财经法兰克福7月25日电（记者马悦然）欧洲中央银行24日召开货币政策会议，决定维持欧元区三 大关键利率不变。这是该行自2024年6月启动降息周期以来，连续八次下调利率后的首次按兵不动。分 析人士指出，在通胀基本达标、增长温和回升的背景下，美国政府提出的新一轮关税计划已成为当前最 突出的外部不确定性因素，欧洲央行的政策空间由此受到更多掣肘。 根据会议公布的决议，欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资操作利率和边际借贷便利利率分别维持在 2.00%、2.15%和2.40%。欧洲央行表示，目前通胀率已达到2%的中期目标水平。根据该行预测，欧元 区2025年和2027年通胀率将分别为2.0%，2026年为1.6%。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）在新闻发布会上指出，当前经济形势"异常不确 定"，主要源于美欧贸易谈判前景未明。她表示，美国政府提出的对欧盟商品征收最高达30%的关税尚 属"假设层面"，但谈判走向将对经济预期、企业信心和价格形成带来实质性影响。 "任何有关贸易的不确定性，都在直接影响企业、消费者以及我们自身的行为方式。"拉加德说。她指 出，若关税最终实施，可能会通过需求抑制 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean Minister of Industry held trade talks with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo [1] - The South Korean Minister expressed efforts to achieve the best results before the tariff deadline on August 1 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that U.S. tariffs may reduce Brazil's GDP growth by nearly half a percentage point [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Brazil's economy is significant, suggesting a direct correlation between international trade policies and domestic economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - LVMH's CFO indicated that the group can increase production capacity in the U.S. due to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The company is considering expanding its production capabilities in the United States [1] - Tariffs are influencing the company's strategic decisions regarding production [1]