美联储杰斐逊：长期通胀预期稳定在2%左右。 来源：滚动播报 ...

值得注意的是，美元指数当日仅微跌0.07%，并未对贵金属上涨形成显著推动。GTC泽汇资本认为，这 种"美元中性"的环境使得市场更关注基本面和情绪面的驱动因素。从盘中表现来看，金价一度冲高至 3922.70美元的历史新高，随后快速回落，最终收于3892.60美元。这种走势不仅出现在黄金期货，也在 其他贵金属品种中有所体现。白银价格盘中同样冲高后遇阻回落，而铂金和钯金则维持窄幅震荡，显示 资金在主要品种间的轮动特征。 10月2日，贵金属市场在最新交易日延续强势，投资者在疲弱的就业数据与不断上升的避险需求之间寻 找平衡。GTC泽汇资本表示，在复杂的宏观背景下，贵金属整体表现出的韧性不仅是短期资金的避险选 择，更折射出市场对利率周期、资产配置和长期通胀预期的深层次考量。 最新的ADP就业报告显示，9月私营部门减少了3.2万个岗位，而市场此前预期为增加5万个。这是自 2020年以来首次连续两个月就业萎缩，也是自2023年3月以来的最大降幅。GTC泽汇资本认为，就业市 场的疲软不仅压低了对经济复苏的信心，也强化了市场对美联储维持降息通道的预期。在利率回落环境 下，非收益类资产的吸引力显著增强，这对黄金、白银及其他贵金属均 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔重申未来没有无风险的政策路径，他表示，政策立场仍有适度的限制性，已做好充分 准备应对潜在的发展情况；降息是朝着更中性政策立场迈出的又一步；长期通胀预期符合2%的目标， 未来几个季度可能出现"一次性"价格上涨；商品价格上涨在很大程度上反映的是关税因素，而非更广泛 的价格压力。（格隆汇） ...

Group 1 - The preliminary report from the University of Michigan indicates a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 55.4 in September, marking the lowest level since May and a second consecutive month of decline [1][2] - The report highlights that the long-term inflation expectations have risen for two consecutive months, contributing to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - The decline in consumer confidence suggests potential reductions in consumer spending, which could negatively impact overall economic growth [2] Group 2 - Analysts point out that the ongoing decrease in consumer confidence reflects the dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation facing the U.S. economy [2] - The increase in the probability of personal unemployment among consumers indicates heightened concerns about job market stability, which weighs heavily on consumer sentiment [2] - Recent data shows that in August, U.S. employers added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a positive trend, with the ChiNext index leading the charge, rising by 2.29% [1] - Major indices closed in the green, with the ChiNext performing particularly well, while the Shanghai Composite Index showed a more stable increase [3] - Total trading volume decreased by over 500 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a more cautious and selective approach from investors [3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks experienced significant gains, with major players like Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, driven by international gold prices surpassing 3,480 USD [3] - The innovative drug sector also saw a surge, with stocks like Maiwei Bio and Lifang Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, suggesting new market expectations regarding policies or industry fundamentals [3] - The technology sector, particularly CPO stocks, remained strong, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication reaching historical highs, supported by the growing demand for AI and computing power [3] Weak Sectors - Insurance, securities, and military sectors showed weak performance, with brokerage stocks collectively retreating and companies like China Satellite and China Satcom experiencing notable declines [4] - The performance of these sectors is closely tied to market sentiment and policy direction, indicating that short-term corrections are not unexpected [4] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on identifying sectors with genuine performance, logic, and growth potential rather than chasing daily market trends [4] - Gold is viewed through the lens of long-term cycles, innovative drugs are assessed for real turning points, and technology is evaluated based on hard demand [4]

他认为，美国潜在通胀率已接近美联储2%的长期目标，基于市场的长期通胀预期稳固，且劳动力市场 出现疲软的可能性增加，因此支持立即降息。沃勒认为美联储应"忽略"关税对通胀的影响，并预计其影 响是暂时的。 美联储理事沃勒支持在9月16日至17日的下次货币政策会议上降息25个基点。沃勒预计未来三到六个月 内还将进一步降息，具体步伐将根据即将公布的数据而定。 在7月末的上次FOMC会议上，沃勒与另一位理事鲍曼投票反对维持利率不变，主张降息25个基点。 ...

Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential year-on-year increase of 2.7% in the core PCE for June, with tariffs contributing to rising prices of certain goods, while long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The mention of tariffs suggests that trade policies are influencing commodity prices, which could have implications for various sectors reliant on these goods [1] - The alignment of long-term inflation expectations with the 2% target indicates a stable outlook for monetary policy, which may affect investment strategies across different industries [1]

Group 1 - The overall core inflation is largely in line with the target set by the European Central Bank [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - Labor costs are continuing to trend towards moderation [1] Group 2 - Wage growth is expected to further slow down [1] - The economic outlook faces downside risks [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term inflation expectations in the Eurozone remain stable at around 2% according to ECB President Christine Lagarde [1]