类别 宏观市场月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 9 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储降息利多环球股市 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250918-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析（三）》 《宏观专题-20250821-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(二)》 《宏观专题-20250815-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(一)》 《宏观专题-20250724-从 CIP 指数 观察中国制造业的国际竞争力》 宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新 政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征 ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初探 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 2025-09-17 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 2025-08-18 全天候策略需要择时吗：——风险均衡策 略新思路 2025-07-09 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 021-63326320 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 证券研究"2+1"思维在大类资产投资过程中同样有效。"2+1"思维也即预期思 维、交易思维与边际思维。在资产配置中，我们通常以战略配置定中期仓位中枢， 以战术配置做短期仓位调整 ...

不少人抱怨："投诉了半天，却没人理我。" 其实并不是投诉本身没用，而是选错了渠道，或者忽视了 一些细节，导致问题迟迟没有推进。要想真正推动结果，就要明白投诉为什么会"卡住"，以及不同渠道 的差别在哪里。 投诉为何常常"没下文"？ 最典型的原因有两类： 12315 全国消费维权平台（www.12315.cn）由市场监管部门主管，是最权威的渠道，适合涉及三包服 务、价格欺诈、虚假宣传等严重问题。缺点是投诉处理时间通常较长。 各地消费者协会 （www.cca.org.cn）则更强调调解，适合教育培训、预付卡类的纠纷。效率取决于双方配合，周期通常 比平台更长。 跨行业问题该找谁？ 不少消费纠纷其实跨出了单一领域： 网络扣费、宽带故障，往往需要工信部门督促运营商； 避免投诉"失联"，核心就在于：证据要全，路径要对。 平台内：最快，但容易遇到规则限制 电商购物、外卖、出行订票等场景，最直接的办法就是通过订单里的"售后"或"申诉"入口提交。一般几 天内就会有反馈。 但平台的规则是预先设定好的，能解决常见的退货退款、配送延误，却难以处理虚 假宣传、预付卡退费等复杂问题。 黑猫投诉 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】：让进度可见 当消费者 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current market conditions present numerous investment opportunities despite a year of recovery, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation strategies to capture diverse returns while managing volatility risks [2] Group 1: Low-Interest Rate Environment - The low-interest rate environment challenges traditional investment logic, making it difficult to manage risks and achieve stable long-term returns [2] - There is a consensus among investors regarding the attractiveness of equity assets, driven by China's economic resilience and the emergence of companies with sustainable profitability [2] - The focus on companies with core competitiveness remains the optimal solution for achieving excess returns in a liquidity-rich environment [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The current low-risk-free rate necessitates the inclusion of risk assets in investment portfolios to pursue higher returns [3] - Equity assets are viewed as having the best value proposition among risk assets, despite a decrease in attractiveness compared to the previous year [3] - The importance of asset allocation is increasing as market volatility and the difficulty of obtaining returns grow [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Potential investment opportunities include a rebound in dollar assets and continued upward potential for assets represented by the renminbi [6] - Gold is considered a strong tool for hedging portfolio risks due to its low correlation with the dollar, while copper is expected to perform well due to demand from new energy and AI [6] - In a low inflation and ample liquidity environment, a diversified approach involving stocks, bonds, and commodities, particularly gold, is favored [7]

Core Viewpoint - Consumers are increasingly aware of the importance of preemptive measures in avoiding pitfalls when shopping, utilizing various public channels to gather information before making purchases [1] Group 1: Consumer Feedback Mechanisms - User reviews on e-commerce and delivery platforms serve as the first line of defense, providing insights into product quality, logistics, and service attitude, but they can be fragmented and manipulated [2] - The Black Cat Complaint platform offers a more comprehensive view of consumer complaints, allowing users to see common issues, company responses, resolution status, and complaint trends over time, which aids in risk assessment [3] Group 2: Interpreting Complaint Information - When analyzing complaint records, consumers should focus on the concentration of issues, the company's response attitude, and the timing of complaints to make informed decisions rather than dismissing companies based solely on high complaint volumes [4] Group 3: Platform Rules and Responsibilities - E-commerce and financial platforms often publish arbitration cases and typical scenarios, which help consumers understand the boundaries of responsibility and the likelihood of platform intervention in case of issues [5] Group 4: Conclusion - Proactive consumer protection should involve preemptive evaluations rather than reactive measures, utilizing user reviews, complaint platforms, and understanding platform rules to avoid potential losses [6]

1、宁波（现金返利，数量开多少？） 销售返利中的现金返利可以按照国税发〔2004〕136号文件规定，收到返利一方做进项税额转出，这种情况下，支付返利一方全额计提销项税，返利确认为 销售费用。但是如此则会面临税款损失，因此正常企业应该都会选择按照国税函〔2006〕1279号文件规定，开具增值税红字发票。 但是红字发票的开具受规则限制，比如数量要不要填写？对应的蓝字发票怎么选择？接下来我们看看实务中怎样解决相关问题。 一、几则12366的答复 网址：https://12366.chinatax.gov.cn/nszx/onlinemessage/detail?id=1dbd98d3ab3241f3b79a70f4d86a1265 标题：生产企业销售返利红字发票怎么开？数量开多少？ 留言时间：2020-03-23 咨询对象：宁波市税务局 问题内容： 国税函〔2006〕1279号规定：纳税人销售货物并向购买方开具增值税专用发票后，由于购货方在一定时期内累计购买货物达到一定数量，或者由于市场价格 下降等原因，销货方给予购货方相应的价格优惠或补偿等折扣、折让行为，销货方可按现行《增值税专用发票使用规定》的有关规定开具红字 ...

不少人都有过类似的经历：买东西时只看了好评，结果收到货却与描述差距很大；报了培训班时被优惠 活动吸引，后来却发现退费困难。看评价、刷口碑，几乎成了消费前的固定动作，但这些信息未必完 整。广告可以美化，评价区可能存在刷单，真正能反映服务和售后情况的，往往是那些被公开的投诉记 录。 很多消费者总是在问题出现后才想到投诉，过程往往要花费数周甚至数月。但事实上，消费前花几分钟 查询投诉信息，就可能避免掉入不必要的麻烦。评价看一看，投诉也查一查，把正面与负面信息结合起 来，才能让消费决策更全面。 监管部门的处罚公告、平台内部的差评与仲裁记录，以及第三方投诉平台 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】的 公示，都是容易被忽视却很有价值的参考。消费前花几分钟去看看这些"负面信息"，往往能避免掉进常 见的陷阱。 平台内部：看评价也看纠纷记录 在电商、外卖或出行平台，除了"好评率"，其实还能看到更多维度的信息。比如商品评价区的"差评标 签"，往往集中反映出主要问题；部分平台还会在规则页面公开仲裁案例或"先行赔付"的典型情形。消 费者在消费前，不妨点开这些内容，了解该商家是否存在反复出现的服务问题。 官方渠道：处罚公告与黑名单 监管部门会定期公 ...

Company Overview - Zhejiang Dongri announced a leasing agreement with Wenzhou Vegetable Basket Group for a slaughterhouse facility in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, covering a total area of approximately 7,102.14 square meters [1] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Zhejiang Dongri's revenue composition is as follows: 46.44% from goods, 25.86% from wholesale market transactions, 22.68% from leasing, 3.2% from other sources, and 1.56% from additional business activities [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report, Zhejiang Dongri has a market capitalization of 23.8 billion yuan [1]

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 中小盘反弹力度领先，微盘拥挤度降至低位 股票市场概览 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度近期处于历史较低位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度均处于历史低位，大盘风格 拥挤度近期上升至历史较高位置。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度下降至历史低位；基金重仓超额累 计净值持续处于历史低位，拥挤度近期上行至历史高位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为电子、非银行金融、农林牧渔；领跌的行业为银行、综 合金融、医药。本周成交热度最高的行业为国防军工、纺织服装、纺织服 装；成交热度最低的行业为煤炭、综合金融、石油石化。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为有色金属、房地产、石油石 化，居后的行业为银行、机械、医药。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率上涨，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts significantly impact the performance of equity, debt, and currency assets, while the relationship with commodity prices is less clear [1][2] Equity Market - Equity assets have a higher success rate during preemptive rate cuts, while they are likely to decline during crisis-driven cuts [1][2] - The success rate of equities improves one month after a preemptive rate cut, and the performance during crisis-driven cuts is closely related to the recovery of fundamentals [2] Debt Market - U.S. Treasury yields are more likely to decline during crisis-driven rate cuts, while the trend during preemptive cuts is uncertain [1][2] - After rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease, while the trend for Chinese bonds is generally downward, with no clear pattern for German and Japanese bonds [2] Currency Market - The strength of the U.S. dollar is inconsistent in the early stages of rate cuts, but after 2-3 months, the dollar tends to depreciate under recessionary cuts and appreciate under preemptive cuts, with the Chinese yuan showing relative independence [1][2] - The average appreciation of the euro and yen is noted during these periods [2] Commodity Market - The relationship between commodity prices and interest rate cuts is weak, with gold showing a higher average increase during crisis-driven cuts and greater elasticity in price increases [1][2] - Oil prices are less correlated with rate cuts and are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1]