2026 年全球资产配置展望 20251121 2026 年的投资有两个核心关切：第一是股票和黄金的牛市能否延续；第二是 如果牛市有所改变，应采取哪些应对措施。近期中国、美股及黄金都有一些回 调，反映市场开始思考未来趋势改变的可能性。 当前黄金、美股和中国债券估值较高，美债和原油等商品估值较低。A 股和港股估值适中。地缘政治事件可能冲击市场，通常对股票不利，对 黄金和商品有推升作用。 维持超配中国股票和黄金的策略，但需注意波动风险。增加商品配置以 对冲股票和黄金牛市趋势改变的风险。中国股票风格应更均衡，价值与 周期板块可能补涨。 如何分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律？ 分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律时，可以通过历史数据总结其特点。例如， 美股牛市占总市场时间比例较长（84%），单次牛市时长约为 5.6 年，而熊市 较短，因此分析其顶部性价比不高。而中国股票波动较大，牛熊切换频繁，需 要更关注顶部判断。同样，黄金牛熊分布均衡，但单次周期较长，因此顶部判 断也很重要。 摘要 全球股票和黄金市场受益于技术革命和成长股跑赢价值股的趋势，中国 股票表现优于美国股票。中金建议超配黄金和中国科技股，低配商品和 美元资产，该策 ...

Strategy - The article discusses the current bull market, emphasizing that it is not merely driven by liquidity and weak fundamentals, but rather the sustainability of this bull market is in question. It draws parallels with Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, highlighting the importance of large-scale fiscal stimulus as a necessary condition for the initiation of a bull market in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment. The article suggests that if policies are more targeted and aligned with external industrial trends, the bull market could last longer. Key risks to watch include policy easing, external disturbances like the AI bubble, and internal debt exposure [5][8]. Industry - For 2026, the article recommends overweighting gold, increasing allocation to Chinese technology stocks, and underweighting commodities. It notes that both gold and global stocks have seen significant increases, and the key for 2026 will be whether the bull markets in gold and stocks can continue. The article summarizes the switching patterns of major asset classes and emphasizes the importance of identifying the peak of the bull market in Chinese stocks and gold. It identifies economic and policy signals as the most effective indicators for Chinese stocks, while gold peaks are more dependent on Federal Reserve policies [8][10]. Macroeconomy - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, leading AI companies in the US have significantly outperformed the overall market. Similarly, Chinese AI leaders have also shown strong performance in the Hong Kong market. Despite rapid earnings growth for these companies, the risk premium remains at a low level, indicating optimistic investor sentiment. The article discusses the ongoing debate about the potential bubble in AI-related asset prices, focusing on the relationship between asset prices, innovation, and macroeconomic factors [10][12]. Quantitative & ESG - The report analyzes the calendar effects in the A-share market, focusing on the performance of mainstream styles and their cyclical patterns. Key conclusions include that growth and small-cap styles are significantly influenced by the timing of earnings disclosures, with growth stocks attracting more attention during busy reporting periods. Additionally, high dividend announcements and record dates can temporarily affect the performance of dividend styles. Institutional investors exhibit seasonal risk preference changes, favoring growth styles mid-year and defensive strategies towards year-end [13][15]. Global Research - The global economy and markets have shown unexpected resilience in 2025, despite significant trade tensions. However, there is notable divergence across industries and regions. The article predicts that Japan's economic growth may continue to exceed potential GDP in 2026. Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, is expected to benefit from industrial expansion, upstream mining investments, and diversification of global supply chains [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report Market Logic - Overseas: The US government ended over 40 days of shutdown this week, but the release of key economic data is still delayed. September non - farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data are expected to be announced in the next two weeks. October employment and inflation data may be distorted, hindering the Fed's policy guidance. The market believes there is a higher probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in December. The end of the shutdown could theoretically boost market risk appetite as fiscal policy can continue to play a role. The TGA account has increased by thousands of billions during the shutdown, exceeding one trillion dollars, and its release is expected to boost the US economy [6]. - Domestic: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined. M1 growth dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, and M2 growth slightly fell to 8.2%. The gap between them widened again, indicating a decrease in capital activation. New social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.5% (previous value 8.7%). Government bond net financing was 489.3 billion yuan, a significant year - on - year decrease. Credit contraction, especially the weakness of long - term household loans, was the main drag, related to real estate spending. M1 growth decline was affected by weak overall social financing, slower corporate capital activation, and the transfer of household deposits to non - bank institutions. M2 growth was pressured by the slowdown of fiscal expenditure and government bond issuance. The current low - interest - rate environment may promote the conversion of deposit structure to demand deposits, supporting M1, while the future trend of M2 still depends on credit issuance rhythm and the implementation of loose policies such as policy - based financial tools [7]. - In October, the industrial added - value growth rate slowed from 6.5% to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%, the lowest point of the year, indicating weakened production momentum. This decline was dragged down by both external and internal demand. Externally, export growth slowed; internally, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, lower than market expectations, and weak investment and consumption were mutually confirmed, highlighting insufficient effective demand. Industry performance was significantly differentiated. Traditional industries were affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with significantly reduced operating rates, while high - tech manufacturing industries such as railway and ship transportation equipment and integrated circuits maintained high - speed growth [8]. - From a meso - perspective, this week's high - frequency economic activity index was active, at a high level in recent years. In building materials, the demand for PVC and glass improved. The operating rate of copper rods rebounded from a low level. The operating rate of photovoltaic glass has been declining rapidly since the "anti - involution" policy was proposed, but it gradually stabilized in late October, stopping the previous rapid decline [8]. - Under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's hawkish signals, global stock markets fluctuated significantly this week, driving the adjustment of multiple assets such as precious metals and digital currencies. As long as global fiscal and monetary policies remain loose, the technology theme still has investment value, and cyclical investments in resource - based sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals are also timely. Precious metals should be used as a hedging tool to prevent tail risks [8]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Major Asset Class | Logic | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to - long - term logic: Global fiscal and monetary policies work together; domestic PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, and "anti - involution" promotes recovery; capital flows, with deposit and wealth - management funds transferring, and foreign capital waiting to enter due to RMB appreciation; stable global demand and improved Sino - US relations lay the foundation for increased risk appetite. Short - term logic: Changes in Sino - Dutch and Sino - Japanese relations affect market risk appetite; valuations have reached extremely high levels in the past three years, and further increases require improved profit expectations; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has decreased. | Long - term overweight, neutral allocation in November, with structural opportunities [9] | | Bonds | Medium - to - long - term logic: Limited room for domestic interest - rate cuts; the "unified large market" (including "anti - involution") promotes inflation and economic improvement; the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term logic: Bond yields have risen significantly compared to mid - year; the central bank has restarted treasury bond trading; the economic momentum in Q4 lacks explosive power. | Long - term underweight, neutral allocation in November [9] | | Commodities | Medium - to - long - term logic: Fiscal and monetary policies boost the economy, and PPI will turn positive next year; the Fed cuts interest rates, and the US dollar weakens; short - duration attributes with lower elasticity than stocks. Short - term logic: Weak demand; weak policy expectations in Q4. | Long - term overweight precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Precious metals will fluctuate from November to December, non - ferrous metals will be relatively strong, and there are trading opportunities in "anti - involution" related varieties [9] | Sector Logic - Precious metals: Still worth long - term allocation from a major asset allocation perspective to hedge against currency credit risks. Silver generally follows gold with more elastic upward pulses. This week, silver rose significantly, and precious metals as a whole soared and then回调ed significantly on Friday night, mainly due to the impact of global risk - asset fluctuations on liquidity. Long - term allocation can continue despite the lack of short - term drivers [14]. - Base metals: Metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin face supply disruptions, with a tight medium - to - long - term supply situation, and there are more technology - related narratives (AI, robots, etc.) on the demand side, so they are still regarded as bullish. Basic metals are breaking through and rising. New - energy metals such as lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly recently due to the "anti - involution" policy, and polysilicon and industrial silicon are also subject to supply - side regulation, and their subsequent market trends are expected to continue [15]. - Black commodities: The current situation is influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the arrival of the peak season, remaining relatively warm. The NDRC requires coal supply guarantee, changing the logic of production cuts due to safety inspections, so coal prices are weak, but it can still be bought on dips based on the peak - season and "anti - involution" logic [15]. - Energy and chemicals: Pay attention to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation of the sector. Recently, crude oil prices have strengthened due to the situation in Venezuela. Without the expansion of the conflict, there is no condition for continuous upward movement, but also no continuous downward momentum under the background that OPEC+ is about to stop increasing supply, so it is expected to fluctuate with short - term strength. For downstream chemical products, after the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of long - term profit expansion, but no short - term drivers [15]. - Agricultural products: In the oil sector, the differentiation continues, with P showing a reverse spread and rapeseed - soybean showing a positive spread, with a medium - term oscillatory trend and both supply and demand increasing. Protein meal is oscillating strongly in the short term with relatively low valuation, and its medium - term trend depends on South American production, with a weak expectation. Corn is under pressure from autumn harvest and oscillating weakly. The supply - demand pressure of live pigs has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range; the demand for eggs has declined, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere has become a reality for sugar, and it is still searching for a bottom; in the long - term, the global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle and is regarded as bearish. For cotton, the latest USDA data in October has a negative impact on global cotton prices, and domestic commercial cotton inventories are higher than last year, so it is oscillating weakly in the short term; in the long - term, domestic cotton prices are at a relatively low level with no effective drivers, and macro - level disturbances should be monitored [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Views - Overseas and domestic economic situations, production and demand conditions, and major asset and sector investment logics are comprehensively analyzed, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [6][7][8][9][14][15][16]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - The weights of major asset sub - sectors in the current and previous periods are presented. The recent one - week, one - month, year - to - date, and three - month returns, valuations, volatilities, trend smoothness, and speculation degrees of stocks, bonds, and commodities are also given. It is also mentioned that the correlation between major asset classes has increased recently, while the correlation within the commodity sector has decreased [19][20][21][22]. 03 Macro Overview - Domestically, in October, the unemployment rate of non - local household registration decreased significantly, the manufacturing PMI declined significantly, the M1 growth rate decreased, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened again. Both CPI and PPI rebounded. Overseas, the US PMI in October increased moderately [26][30][32][33][35]. 04 Meso Data - Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years, scores are given according to the degree of change. Economic activity indicators have returned to normal levels. In the real - estate sector, multiple indicators are at the bottom, while the demand for glass and PVC has increased [41][42][45].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is likely not over, as its price increase and duration are still below historical comparisons from the 1970s and 2000s [1] Gold Market Insights - The continuation of the gold bull market is contingent on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. economy not entering a strong recovery phase characterized by "declining inflation and rising growth" [1] - There is a possibility that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends persist [1] - Despite a clear bull market logic, gold is currently considered overvalued, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocation during dips rather than chasing prices [1] Stock Market Insights - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations [1] - Although year-end volatility may increase, there are no signals indicating a market top, thus maintaining an overweight position is recommended [1] - The U.S. stock market also has a bullish outlook, but concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral allocation [2] Fixed Income Insights - Chinese interest rates have room to decline, but the current valuation of Chinese bonds is high, limiting upside potential, leading to a recommendation for underweighting [2] - U.S. Treasuries benefit from the Fed's easing cycle but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, resulting in a neutral allocation recommendation [2] Market Top Indicators - The analysis of market tops for Chinese stocks and gold highlights the importance of economic and policy signals, with economic slowdowns or tightening policies often indicating market tops [4][5] - The difficulty in accurately timing market tops is noted, particularly due to the close timing of economic and market turning points [4] 2026 Market Outlook Factors - Four key factors that could alter the bullish trends for stocks and gold in 2026 include unexpected growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [6][7][8] - Current data does not support a significant improvement in economic growth for China and the U.S., suggesting that the bullish trends for stocks and gold are likely to continue [8] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation is to overweight Chinese stocks and gold, maintain a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjust commodity allocations to neutral [9] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of being prepared for potential market trend changes by increasing commodity allocations [9]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations, despite potential year-end volatility. No signals of a bull market peak have been observed, and an overweight position is recommended [1] Summary by Category Chinese Stocks - The outlook for Chinese stocks remains positive due to the influence of AI technology and liquidity conditions, suggesting a continued overweight position [1] US Stocks - Similar bullish logic applies to US stocks; however, concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the US dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral position is more appropriate [1] Interest Rates and Bonds - There is potential for further decline in the central interest rate in China, but the valuation of Chinese bonds is considered high, limiting upside potential, thus a lower allocation is advised [1] - US Treasury bonds are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, leading to a neutral allocation recommendation [1] Commodities - Commodities are seen as a hedge against risks associated with changes in gold and stock trends, with a recommendation to adjust from underweight to neutral allocation [1] Gold - Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and the restructuring of monetary order, but its valuation is considered high. An overweight position is recommended, with advice to avoid chasing prices and to increase allocation on dips [1]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold by 2026, including economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [1][2]. Group 1: Key Factors - **Economic Growth Shift**: Current weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation in the U.S. could change if policies lead to better-than-expected economic recovery, which may extend the stock bull market but negatively impact gold [1]. - **Tightening Policies**: Both China and the U.S. are currently in a loose policy environment. However, if the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, or if China's incremental policy pace slows, it could negatively affect both stock and gold bull markets [1]. - **High Valuations**: Chinese stocks are reasonably valued, but both gold and U.S. stocks are facing high valuation pressures, which could pose risks [1]. - **Geopolitical Shocks**: Unexpected geopolitical events could prolong the gold bull market but may adversely affect the stock bull market [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - **Asset Allocation**: The company recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold, a standard allocation in U.S. stocks and bonds, and an adjustment of commodities to standard allocation while reducing Chinese bonds to underweight [2][3]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Benefiting from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, Chinese stocks are seen as having reasonable valuations. Despite potential year-end volatility, there are no signals indicating a market peak, thus maintaining an overweight position is advised [3]. - **U.S. Stocks**: While the bullish logic applies to U.S. stocks, concerns over high valuations and low elasticity during a dollar depreciation cycle suggest a standard allocation is more prudent [3]. - **Commodities**: Commodities are recommended to be adjusted to standard allocation as they can hedge against changes in gold and stock trends while benefiting from post-liquidity recovery [3]. - **Gold**: Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and monetary order reconstruction, but due to high valuations, an overweight position is suggested with a focus on buying on dips rather than chasing prices [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to maintain an overweight position in gold and Chinese technology stocks while reducing exposure to commodities and dollar assets as the market trends evolve in 2026 [2][8] - The article identifies four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold in 2026: economic growth turning, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [4][42] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. stock market has a long bullish phase, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making the timing of market tops more critical for Chinese stocks [3][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of accurately interpreting economic and policy signals to predict market tops, noting that signals from economic and policy dimensions are generally more reliable than those from liquidity, earnings, and valuation [14][28] - For gold, the article highlights that the key determinant for its market top is the Federal Reserve's policy, with historical data showing that four out of five gold bull markets peaked when the Fed began tightening [31][32] - The current economic environment is characterized by a weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., which could support the continuation of the stock bull market while posing risks to the gold bull market [44]

Group 1 - The article discusses a strategy that has yielded an average annual return of 55% over the past years, with the author experiencing a doubling of their initial investment of 500,000 to just over 1 million this year, coinciding with a bull market [1] - The author expresses a sense of dissatisfaction despite the profits, feeling that the growth is slow and contemplating the long-term goal of achieving 20 million for retirement, which would require a 20-fold increase over 7 years [1] - Concerns are raised about the potential for significant drawdowns in the strategy, highlighting the uncertainty and emotional strain associated with long-term investing [1] Group 2 - There is a sentiment that a 55% annual return is perceived as slow compared to other high-risk investment opportunities, such as those in the cryptocurrency space, which can offer returns of 500% to 5000% [2][4] - Suggestions are made to consider leveraging investments to accelerate the path to retirement, indicating a preference for higher-risk strategies to achieve quicker financial freedom [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of having multiple strategies to ensure certainty in returns, as relying on a single strategy can lead to significant risks and emotional distress during market fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The discussion includes the notion that the pursuit of future wealth can sometimes serve as a distraction from current dissatisfaction with life, suggesting that individuals should focus on addressing present issues rather than solely fixating on retirement goals [7][8] - It is noted that the current market conditions may not sustain the same level of returns in the future, indicating a need for realistic expectations regarding long-term investment performance [9] - The article concludes with reflections on the nature of investment returns, suggesting that the focus should be on the journey and personal growth rather than just the end financial goal [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the various deceptive practices in online shopping platforms, including hidden fees and price manipulation, which undermine consumer trust and regulatory effectiveness [1][2][3] Group 2 - The first article discusses the issue of hidden fees in online ticket purchasing, where consumers often end up paying more than expected due to additional charges that are not clearly disclosed [1] - The second article addresses the unauthorized price adjustments made by platforms, which disrupt the pricing autonomy of merchants and negatively impact both merchants and consumers [2] - The third article focuses on the misuse of AI models in e-commerce, where businesses create misleading representations of products, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and potential legal repercussions [3]