登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 港交所全年业绩的持续爆发，源于现货、衍生品、商品、互联互通等多条业务线同步放量，叠加上市服务收入随IPO热潮大幅增长 文|《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 编辑 | 郭楠 陆玲 2025年无疑是香港交易所集团实现跨越式发展的关键一年。在全球资本重新聚焦中国资产、内地与香港市场深度融合、上市机制持续优化的多重 驱动下，港交所全年业绩再度刷新历史纪录，重新摘得全球IPO（首次公开发行）融资桂冠。 2月26日，香港交易所正式公布2025年全年业绩，其间实现营收291.61亿港元，同比增长30%；股东应占溢利177.54亿港元，同比增长36%，高于 营收增速；第二次中期股息每股6.52港元，以稳定且可观的分红回报股东。 港交所全年业绩的持续爆发，源于现货、衍生品、商品、互联互通等多条业务线同步放量，叠加上市服务收入随IPO热潮大幅增长，共同推动盈 利水平再上新台阶。 港交所行政总裁陈翊庭表示，2025年集团充分发挥全球超级联系人角色，重登全球新股融资中心榜首，成交量与业绩均创新高。全年持续革新产 品生态圈与市场结构，紧贴全球资金多元配置与亚洲创新崛起趋势，通过投资迅清结算2 ...

长沙春节消费成绩单 春节期间，长沙街头巷尾人潮涌动，旅游市场红红火火，商场超市熙熙攘攘，年味十足！刚刚，长沙春 节消费成绩单公布，一起来看！ 长 沙 累 计 实 现 商 品 和 服 务 销 售 额 222.42亿元，同比增长7.76%，城市 消费活力持续迸发。 F - UNTUR 市商务局监测数据显示,2月15日至23日17 时,五一商圈核心区累计客流达456.97万 人次,比去年1月28日至2月4日增长15%。 初四单日客流70.43万人次，创假期峰值， 同比增28.23%;每日19:00至20:15为客流 高峰，餐饮、零售、娱乐业态同步发力。 万 新闻 春节期间，长沙有奖发票活动聚焦批 发、零售、住宿、餐饮、居民服务、 体育等行业,累计提交发票22.7万 张,总金额8426.54万元,中奖率 74.8%，发放红包429.05万元。 2晚报 掌库斥严 长沙春节消费成绩单 and 市商务局数据显示,2月15日至22日,长沙 以旧换新活动参与8.32万人次,申请补贴 6007万元,直接带动销售5.85亿元;"驾 享星城"汽车促消费活动市级财政投入200 万元,联动芙蓉区、宁乡市各投入100万 元,形成叠加效应; ...

陈翊庭透露，今年以来已有逾20只新股上市，集资额逾100亿美元，相当于去年全年集资额约380亿美元 的逾25%；增发集资势头亦强劲，已达去年三分之一以上，期望这股势头能持续。目前有488家企业正 轮候在香港上市，其中逾10家为国际公司。港交所将继续优化上市框架，响应市场需求，便利全球企业 利用香港作为集资平台。她强调，去年来港上市的内地公司多已高度国际化，部分企业逾一半收入来自 全球各地。 此外，陈翊庭提到，去年底港交所入股金管局旗下迅清结算控股，期望在固定收益、货币与大宗商品领 域发力，令整个金融生态圈更丰满，便利国际投资者实现更好多元化配置，并将继续扩展互联互通机 制。 港交所主席唐家成则表示，对市场审慎乐观。他指出，自2018年推出同股不同权机制以来，市场已发生 不少变化，现时是时候研究及分析相关措施是否仍符合市场现况；任何改革最重要是保持市场质素，确 保香港持续成为高质素、备受认可的国际金融中心。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 来源：观点地产网 观点网 香港报导：2月20日，港交所行政总裁陈翊庭在马年新春开市仪式致辞时表示，过去几年，国际 社会对亚洲市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dangers of hindsight bias in investing, highlighting that while it is easy to identify past opportunities and risks, it is much more challenging to predict future market movements and make informed decisions based on current data [3][8]. Group 1: Common Hindsight Biases - Investors often believe they can identify the best-performing assets, such as gold and commodities, due to geopolitical tensions and economic crises [4]. - The article notes that in 2023, the U.S. stock market led global gains, driven by advancements in AI technology, which reinforces the belief that understanding market logic can help seize opportunities [6]. - Many investors think they can avoid every risk, but historical events like trade wars and financial crises show that risks often have early warning signs that are only clear in retrospect [7]. Group 2: Investment Traps Hidden in Hindsight - The article points out that while past market trends appear clear, future predictions remain uncertain due to the complex interplay of various factors [9]. - Investors are often attracted to past performance, such as the significant gains in precious metals and technology sectors, while neglecting the associated risks of substantial drawdowns [10]. - Relying on past experiences can distort future expectations, leading to overly cautious or biased investment decisions [11]. Group 3: Correct Use of Hindsight - The article suggests focusing on the long-term pricing logic of assets rather than short-term performance, as historical data shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities generally appreciate over time [13]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding long-term drivers, such as corporate earnings for stocks and market interest rates for bonds, while avoiding the temptation to react to short-term market fluctuations [14]. - Investors should reflect on their own investment psychology to avoid common mistakes like panic selling during downturns or chasing high returns without a strategy [15].

国外 道明证券将美联储下次降息时间点的预测从此前的3月推迟至6月，仍预计今年将累计降息75个基点，降 至终端利率3%。道明证券预计美联储将在6月、9月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息。该机构首席美 国宏观策略师Oscar Munoz领衔的团队表示，预期中的政策宽松并非源于经济状况恶化，而是随着通胀 逐步回到目标水平，货币政策走向"正常化"的结果。就业前景改善应能让美联储把注意力转向通胀任 务。该机构同时预计，美债收益率今年将会继续下行，10年期收益率至年末将降至3.75%（此前预计为 3.5%）。 3. 野村：高市早苗政府有望加强财政纪律，日元走强 日元相对其他G10及亚洲货币走强。野村外汇研究分析师在报告中指出，日本首相高市早苗在财政政策 上可能变得更加"负责"，这将为外汇市场带来了一定缓解。分析师指出，有关如何为日本的消费税暂时 减免提供资金的讨论正在升温。分析师补充称，政府可能会利用"外汇基金特别账户"的盈余来支持此次 消费税减免。 4. Monex宏观研究负责人：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees在报告中表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当 ...

2025年12月与2024年12月比较，输往中国台湾省(61.8%)、美国(44.6%)、越南(26.5%)及中国内地(内地) (19.8%)的整体出口货量录得升幅。另一方面，输往印度的整体出口货量则下跌9.9%。 对外商品贸易货量变动是从对外商品贸易货值变动中扣除价格变动的影响而计算出来。 2025年12月与2024年12月比较，商品整体出口价格及进口价格分别上升3.7%及3.4%。 2025年全年与2024年比较，商品整体出口价格及进口价格分别上升2.3%及2.2%。 对外商品贸易的价格变动是以对外商品贸易的单位价格指数变动反映。这指数是根据平均单位价值或个 别商品的实际价格来计算。 贸易价格比率指数是根据商品整体出口价格指数与商品进口价格指数的比率计算出来。与2024年同期比 较，这指数在2025年12月上升0.3%，而在2025年全年则大致维持不变。 智通财经APP获悉，继较早时发表2025年12月份对外商品贸易的货值统计数字后，港府统计处今日(2月 12日)发表该月份对外商品贸易货量及价格统计数字。2025年12月与2024年12月比较，香港的商品整体 出口货量及进口货量分别上升21.6%及26.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global macroeconomic landscape since Trump's presidency, highlighting the shift from low inflation and stable economic conditions to high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, which have rendered many traditional investment strategies ineffective [10][11][12]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Changes - The global macro environment has transformed dramatically, characterized by high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a breakdown of previously reliable investment correlations [10][11]. - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" has resulted in traditional industries facing pressure while new technologies continue to expand, altering asset correlations and investment strategies [11][12]. - The role of precious metals has shifted, becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar, as investors seek to hedge against currency devaluation [11][32]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies need to evolve from traditional stock-bond hedging to a balanced risk approach, focusing on reliable corporate earnings, reasonable valuations, and policy support [11][12]. - The importance of precious metals in investment portfolios has increased, with recommendations suggesting allocations of 20% to 30% in precious metals to counterbalance risks [51][56]. - Bonds are still considered valuable as a protective tool against economic downturns, despite their declining attractiveness compared to precious metals [55][60]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that high inflation, high debt, and geopolitical tensions will continue to dominate, necessitating a focus on hard currencies and structural growth opportunities while maintaining defensive reserves [12][41]. - The macroeconomic trends established during Trump's presidency are expected to persist, with ongoing challenges in global economic stability and investment strategies [41][42].

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies, including BYD, are challenging the legality of tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, claiming they lack legal basis and seeking refunds for overpaid amounts [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Challenges and Implications - BYD and other companies are filing lawsuits against the U.S. government to contest tariffs, with a focus on the legality of the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) being used for tariff imposition [1][4]. - The ongoing legal battle has implications for thousands of similar cases, as a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs could lead to significant refunds and a reevaluation of tariff policies [1][3][4]. - The urgency of these lawsuits is driven by the need to file before the completion of tariff clearance processes, which would make refunds more difficult [3][6]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The potential refunds involved are not trivial, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, which could significantly affect U.S. fiscal health [3][6]. - If the court rules against the government, it could lead to the cancellation of tariffs and the return of previously paid amounts, impacting the financial landscape for many companies [3][6][13]. Group 3: Broader Industry Concerns - The legal challenges reflect a broader backlash against unilateral tariffs and the potential misuse of emergency powers in trade policy, raising concerns about the predictability of trade rules [4][6][9]. - Companies like Toyota and Costco are also affected, indicating that the issue transcends foreign versus domestic companies, evolving into a broader "business versus government" conflict [6][11]. - The use of IEEPA for trade tariffs is unprecedented and raises concerns about the potential for future administrations to exploit similar powers, threatening the integrity of trade laws [9][14]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategic Adjustments - Companies are beginning to adjust their strategies in response to the uncertainty, with some importing goods earlier or relocating assembly processes to mitigate tariff impacts [7][11]. - The ongoing legal proceedings are causing companies to reconsider their investments in the U.S. and their supply chain strategies, highlighting the significant economic implications of the tariff disputes [7][11][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Supreme Court's eventual ruling will be pivotal, potentially establishing a precedent that could reshape U.S. trade policy for years to come [7][10][15]. - The outcome of these legal battles will not only affect the companies involved but could also redefine the balance of power between the government and businesses in the context of trade regulations [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of safe, scientific, and rational consumption during the Spring Festival, with guidance provided by the Jiuquan Market Supervision Administration and the Jiuquan Consumer Association [1][2] Group 2 - Home service has become a consumption hotspot during the Spring Festival, and consumers are advised to choose reputable service providers and clarify service details and responsibilities beforehand [1] - Consumers should confirm details such as dish prices, types, and quantities when booking New Year's Eve dinners, and be aware of the terms regarding deposits and changes in dining arrangements [1] Group 3 - During the Spring Festival, both online and offline merchants will employ various promotional strategies like discounts and gifts to attract consumers, who are encouraged to create shopping lists and avoid impulsive purchases [2] - Consumers are advised to purchase health products through legitimate channels, ensuring they recognize proper labeling and avoid exaggerated claims about efficacy [2] Group 4 - It is crucial for consumers to retain receipts and other proof of purchase, and in case of disputes, they should first attempt to negotiate with merchants or report issues through designated complaint hotlines [2]