美联储巴尔：服务业通胀的部分构成因素源于股价上涨。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Goolsbee重申了对近期服务业通胀回升的担忧，他表示这可能意味着在经济中受关税影响最小的部分， 价格压力仍然持续。美联储下次利率决策会议定于10月28-29日举行。在这一关键时点，政策制定者将 面临在数据不完整情况下评估经济走向的挑战。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 "如果我们没有这些数据，那就麻烦了。" 美国政府于周三开始关门，负责收集和发布经济数据的政府机构将停止相关工作。第一个可能受到影响 的重要数据就是定于10月3日发布的美国劳工统计局就业报告。美国劳工统计局原定于10月15日发布的 月度消费者价格指数报告可能受到影响，这是关于通胀的标志性报告。人口普查局关于零售额和新住宅 建设的报告也面临被推迟的风险。 芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee表示，美国政府关门期间缺乏官方经济数据将使央行决策者更难解读经济形 势，这对美联储"是个问题"。 Goolsbee周三在接受美国公共媒体节目采访时警告称，政府关门将使美联储在关键时期失去重要的经济 ...

美联储古尔斯比：服务业通胀上涨的原因难以解释。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high level of inflation in the U.S. services sector is concerning, with rapid price growth being more alarming than a softening job market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Harker expressed that inflation remains a significant concern within the dual mandate [1] - Current inflation rates are above desired levels and are moving in the wrong direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of over $3760 per ounce, driven by ongoing commodity inflation trends in the U.S. and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, while service sector inflation shows signs of easing [1] - The labor market is experiencing a downward trend, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, as indicated during the August global central bank meeting, suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The combination of rising tariffs contributing to inflation and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - The recent surge in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses hope that the rise in service sector inflation is only temporary [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends in the service industry to ensure they do not become persistent [1] - The statement reflects the Fed's ongoing concern about inflation dynamics and its potential impact on monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro against the US dollar has declined despite better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, indicating that the market may be focusing on other factors rather than the inflation increase [1] Inflation Data - Eurozone's inflation rate accelerated to 2.1% in August, surpassing the market expectation of 2.0% [1] - Core inflation remained at 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [1] Market Reaction - Following the inflation data release, the euro fell by 0.6% to 1.1636 USD, down from approximately 1.1644 USD before the announcement [1] - The market anticipates that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates at its policy meeting on September 11 [1] Technical Analysis - The primary support level for the euro against the dollar is the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1502 [1] - If this support is breached, subsequent support levels are the August low of 1.1391 (August 1) and the weekly bottom support of 1.1210 (May 29) [1] - Momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating a mild upward bias, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a weak trend strength without a clear direction [1]

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading at 3334.08, with expectations to test resistance levels above 3370 [1] - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD/oz, while Shanghai gold futures fell by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY/g [3] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges regarding interest rate decisions, particularly with core PCE expected to exceed the 2% target by 100 basis points [3] Group 2 - Historical patterns suggest that after the current consolidation phase, gold prices are likely to rise again, although there are signals indicating potential downward risks [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at approximately 3270 USD and 3200 USD, with bullish sentiment expected if these levels are reached [4] - The 4-hour MACD shows a weakening trend, indicating that gold may face challenges in maintaining upward momentum unless it stabilizes above 3347 [4][5]

Group 1 - The upcoming statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are expected to significantly influence global capital markets [1] - There is a growing gap between the market's strong expectations for a rate cut in September and the complex realities faced by policymakers [2][4] - The S&P 500 index has reached historical highs, driven by investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts, with a 92% probability assigned to a rate cut in the September meeting [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a surprising acceleration in core CPI to 3.1%, primarily driven by service sector inflation, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand services rose by 1.1%, suggesting future inflation risks [3] - Morgan Stanley highlights that service sector inflation, driven by domestic labor costs and rents, is more persistent and challenging to address compared to goods inflation [3] Group 3 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming more apparent, with differing views on inflation risks among officials, complicating the policy landscape [4] - Powell is expected to counter the prevailing "rate cut certainty" narrative at the Jackson Hole meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4] Group 4 - Major investment banks are issuing warnings about the risks of a one-sided market bet on rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that service sector inflation has been underestimated [5] - The Bank of America strategy team warns that a dovish stance from Powell could trigger profit-taking, while recommending international stocks as a favorable allocation [5] Group 5 - The Jackson Hole meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for market volatility, with potential outcomes hinging on Powell's tone regarding inflation risks and rate cuts [6] - Long-term, the normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve may face greater challenges due to persistent service sector inflation, reshaping global asset pricing [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that contrary to market expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, persistent service sector inflation may lead to a more hawkish stance from Chairman Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market traders have locked in a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by a weak July employment report and downward revisions of historical data [5][6]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that as long as inflation data does not show a catastrophic spike, a preventive rate cut is likely, leading to a "one-way street" towards a September cut [6][4]. Group 2: Service Sector Inflation Concerns - Morgan Stanley identifies service sector inflation as the real issue, overshadowing external factors like tariffs, with core CPI rising from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year in July [7][8]. - Service prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while goods prices rose only 0.2%, indicating a more persistent inflationary trend driven by domestic factors [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell faces the challenge of managing market expectations without being cornered into a rate cut, as failing to cut rates could lead to significant market turmoil [9][10]. - The Fed's goal is to retain flexibility, especially before the complete release of employment and inflation data, to avoid being forced into a decision by market pricing [9][10]. Group 4: Implications for Future Policy - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be a critical moment for Powell to signal that inflation concerns are more pressing than employment issues, aiming to break the market's certainty about a rate cut [12]. - Investors should prepare for potential market corrections due to discrepancies in expectations, as Powell's message may emphasize patience until more data is available [12].