上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月16日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计890715千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨32901千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报14944元/千克，最高触及14957元/千克，最低触及14454 元/千克，截止收盘报14666元/千克，下跌0.30%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 109153 | 4351 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 112715 | 15262 | | | 中工美供应链 | 498965 | 18384 | | | 合计 | 720833 | 37997 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 169882 | -5096 | | 总计 | | 890715 | 32901 | 【基本面消息】 米兰表示，他预计随着租金涨幅从新冠疫情期间的峰值回落至正常水平，住房通胀将会缓解。他认为， 由于劳动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。一些服务业通胀的驱动因素，例如投资组合 管理费，反映的是统计上的异常现象，而不是消费者实际感受到的价格变化。 谈到劳动力市场，米兰 ...

Core Insights - Eurozone business activity unexpectedly accelerated in October, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to its highest level since May 2024, indicating stronger economic momentum than market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The October composite PMI for the Eurozone was reported at 52.2, up from 51.2 in September and significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 51, marking the tenth consecutive month above the neutral level [1][4]. - The increase in PMI was primarily driven by the services sector, particularly strong performance in Germany, which offset ongoing weakness in France [1][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The services PMI in the Eurozone rose from 51.3 in September to 52.6 in October, reaching a 14-month high, while manufacturing showed only a slight improvement, with manufacturing output growth at 51.1, up from 50.0 in September [5][8]. - The overall manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 in September to 50 in October, indicating a recovery from contraction to the neutral level [5][8]. Group 3: Employment Trends - Employment conditions showed a positive shift, with job growth resuming in October after a slight decline in September, and the pace of job creation in the services sector reached its fastest rate since June 2024 [8]. - However, manufacturing firms faced pressures to cut jobs at the fastest rate in four months due to weak demand [8]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite the positive PMI data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, reflecting cautious sentiment regarding future prospects [8]. - The Eurozone's economic growth remains significantly behind that of the U.S., with challenges stemming from France's fiscal and political uncertainties and structural pressures in the manufacturing sector [8]. Group 5: Central Bank Policy - Market consensus suggests that the resilience of the Eurozone economy and moderate inflation pressures in the services sector will lead the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rate policy [8]. - The inflation rate in the services sector remains moderate, with a slight increase in sales price inflation, but still close to long-term averages, which may support the ECB's stance against further rate cuts [8].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is expected to rise for the second consecutive month in September, with a projected increase of 0.4% from August, driven by higher gasoline prices and tariff-related costs on clothing, beef, and coffee [1][1][1] - Year-over-year, the CPI is estimated to increase by 3.1%, marking the highest level in 16 months, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [1][1][1] - Economists predict that consumers will bear up to 60% of the total tariff costs over the next six months, as companies gradually pass on costs while sacrificing hiring [1][1][1] Inflation Trends - Inflation in the services sector, particularly rent, may cool down, potentially offsetting the impact of rising goods prices [1][1][1] - Despite the strengthening inflation, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week [1][1][1] Data Collection Concerns - The CPI report is released during a government shutdown, raising concerns about the quality of October's data due to disruptions in data collection and resource pressures on the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][1][1]

Core Insights - A significant portion (72%) of the increase in the U.S. CPI exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - In this context, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Russell Investments reports that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen below 4% but remains close to fair value [1] - The firm's basic assumption is that as the labor market softens, service sector inflation should remain relatively mild [1] - This environment will allow the Federal Reserve to look past recent noise and potentially continue to lower interest rates in the upcoming month [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that part of the inflation in the service sector is attributed to rising stock prices [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the relationship between stock price increases and service sector inflation [1]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns that the government shutdown will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to the lack of official economic data [1] - Goolsbee specifically highlighted the potential absence of crucial inflation data, which poses a significant issue for the Fed [1] Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, will halt the operations of agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data [1] - Key reports that may be affected include the employment report scheduled for October 3 and the Consumer Price Index report set for October 15, both critical for assessing inflation [1] - Additional reports from the Census Bureau regarding retail sales and new residential construction are also at risk of delays [1] Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee reiterated worries about the recent rise in service sector inflation, suggesting that price pressures may persist in parts of the economy least affected by tariffs [1] - The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where policymakers will face challenges in evaluating economic trends with incomplete data [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the reasons behind the rising inflation in the services sector are difficult to explain [1] Group 1 - The services sector is experiencing inflationary pressures that are not easily understood [1]

Core Viewpoint - The high level of inflation in the U.S. services sector is concerning, with rapid price growth being more alarming than a softening job market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Harker expressed that inflation remains a significant concern within the dual mandate [1] - Current inflation rates are above desired levels and are moving in the wrong direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of over $3760 per ounce, driven by ongoing commodity inflation trends in the U.S. and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, while service sector inflation shows signs of easing [1] - The labor market is experiencing a downward trend, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, as indicated during the August global central bank meeting, suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The combination of rising tariffs contributing to inflation and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - The recent surge in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]