美联储官员古尔斯比：服务业通胀"未得到抑制"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储古尔斯比：我仍持谨慎态度，服务业通胀尚未得到控制。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are experiencing a downward trend, currently trading below 22,443 yuan per kilogram, with a decline of 0.94% from the opening price of 23,493 yuan per kilogram [1] - The US dollar index is hovering near a one-week high, making silver more expensive for investors holding other currencies, which directly suppresses overseas buying demand [2] - The ISM report shows that the US non-manufacturing PMI remained steady at 53.8 in January, with rising input costs raising concerns about potential inflation in the service sector, providing temporary support for the dollar [2] Group 2 - The silver market has shown volatility, with prices recovering some losses but currently experiencing a decline of over 2%, indicating ongoing bearish risks [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified between 20,500 and 21,500, while resistance levels are noted between 23,500 and 24,500 [3] - The one-hour MACD is approaching zero, indicating a potential shift in trend, while the RSI remains neutral, suggesting that the bearish trend is still present [3]

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 890,715 kilograms, with an increase of 32,901 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures opened at 14,944 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 14,957 yuan, and dropped to a low of 14,454 yuan, closing at 14,666 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.30% [1] - The total silver warehouse receipts in Shanghai were 720,833 kilograms, with a net increase of 37,997 kilograms [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that the current monetary policy stance is overly tight for the economy, suggesting a positive inflation outlook and warning signs in the labor market [2] - Milan expects housing inflation to ease as rental increases return to normal levels post-COVID-19, and believes that service sector inflation is unlikely to face upward pressure due to a cooling labor market [2] - Milan emphasized that deterioration in the labor market can occur rapidly and non-linearly, advocating for a quicker policy easing to approach a neutral stance [3]

Core Insights - Eurozone business activity unexpectedly accelerated in October, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to its highest level since May 2024, indicating stronger economic momentum than market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The October composite PMI for the Eurozone was reported at 52.2, up from 51.2 in September and significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 51, marking the tenth consecutive month above the neutral level [1][4]. - The increase in PMI was primarily driven by the services sector, particularly strong performance in Germany, which offset ongoing weakness in France [1][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The services PMI in the Eurozone rose from 51.3 in September to 52.6 in October, reaching a 14-month high, while manufacturing showed only a slight improvement, with manufacturing output growth at 51.1, up from 50.0 in September [5][8]. - The overall manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 in September to 50 in October, indicating a recovery from contraction to the neutral level [5][8]. Group 3: Employment Trends - Employment conditions showed a positive shift, with job growth resuming in October after a slight decline in September, and the pace of job creation in the services sector reached its fastest rate since June 2024 [8]. - However, manufacturing firms faced pressures to cut jobs at the fastest rate in four months due to weak demand [8]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite the positive PMI data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, reflecting cautious sentiment regarding future prospects [8]. - The Eurozone's economic growth remains significantly behind that of the U.S., with challenges stemming from France's fiscal and political uncertainties and structural pressures in the manufacturing sector [8]. Group 5: Central Bank Policy - Market consensus suggests that the resilience of the Eurozone economy and moderate inflation pressures in the services sector will lead the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rate policy [8]. - The inflation rate in the services sector remains moderate, with a slight increase in sales price inflation, but still close to long-term averages, which may support the ECB's stance against further rate cuts [8].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is expected to rise for the second consecutive month in September, with a projected increase of 0.4% from August, driven by higher gasoline prices and tariff-related costs on clothing, beef, and coffee [1][1][1] - Year-over-year, the CPI is estimated to increase by 3.1%, marking the highest level in 16 months, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [1][1][1] - Economists predict that consumers will bear up to 60% of the total tariff costs over the next six months, as companies gradually pass on costs while sacrificing hiring [1][1][1] Inflation Trends - Inflation in the services sector, particularly rent, may cool down, potentially offsetting the impact of rising goods prices [1][1][1] - Despite the strengthening inflation, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week [1][1][1] Data Collection Concerns - The CPI report is released during a government shutdown, raising concerns about the quality of October's data due to disruptions in data collection and resource pressures on the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][1][1]

Core Insights - A significant portion (72%) of the increase in the U.S. CPI exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - In this context, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Russell Investments reports that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen below 4% but remains close to fair value [1] - The firm's basic assumption is that as the labor market softens, service sector inflation should remain relatively mild [1] - This environment will allow the Federal Reserve to look past recent noise and potentially continue to lower interest rates in the upcoming month [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that part of the inflation in the service sector is attributed to rising stock prices [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the relationship between stock price increases and service sector inflation [1]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns that the government shutdown will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to the lack of official economic data [1] - Goolsbee specifically highlighted the potential absence of crucial inflation data, which poses a significant issue for the Fed [1] Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, will halt the operations of agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data [1] - Key reports that may be affected include the employment report scheduled for October 3 and the Consumer Price Index report set for October 15, both critical for assessing inflation [1] - Additional reports from the Census Bureau regarding retail sales and new residential construction are also at risk of delays [1] Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee reiterated worries about the recent rise in service sector inflation, suggesting that price pressures may persist in parts of the economy least affected by tariffs [1] - The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where policymakers will face challenges in evaluating economic trends with incomplete data [1]