欧元区商业活动在10月意外加速，综合采购经理人指数（PMI）升至自2024年5月以来最高水平，欧元 区经济动能超市场预期。 24日公布的10月份欧元区综合PMI数据为52.2，高于9月的51.2，远超分析师预期的51，该数据已连续第 十个月位于荣枯线上方。数据超预期的表现主要受服务业推动，尤其是德国服务业表现强劲抵消了法国 的持续疲软。 本轮PMI超预 "尽管德国10月份经济形势显著好转，但法国经济萎缩速度却连续两个月加速。因此，欧元 区经济增长虽然略有加快，但远低于原本应有的水平。" 服务业领涨，制造业仍承压 从具体分项来看，服务业PMI领涨，欧元区服务业PMI从9月份的51.3升至52.6，达到14个月高点。制造 业略有好转，但喜忧参半，制造业产出增速达到51.1，略优于9月的50.0，而制造业整体PMI从9月份的 49.8上升至50，仅仅只是从收缩区间修复至荣枯线上。不过，企业在10月获得新订单的速度为两年半以 来最快，彰显欧元区获得经济增长动力。 整体就业状况有 期增长主要得益于德国服务业的强劲表现。德国10月综合PMI创下自2023年5月以来新高，相较之下， 法国私营部门活动已连续第14个月萎缩，政 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is expected to rise for the second consecutive month in September, with a projected increase of 0.4% from August, driven by higher gasoline prices and tariff-related costs on clothing, beef, and coffee [1][1][1] - Year-over-year, the CPI is estimated to increase by 3.1%, marking the highest level in 16 months, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [1][1][1] - Economists predict that consumers will bear up to 60% of the total tariff costs over the next six months, as companies gradually pass on costs while sacrificing hiring [1][1][1] Inflation Trends - Inflation in the services sector, particularly rent, may cool down, potentially offsetting the impact of rising goods prices [1][1][1] - Despite the strengthening inflation, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week [1][1][1] Data Collection Concerns - The CPI report is released during a government shutdown, raising concerns about the quality of October's data due to disruptions in data collection and resource pressures on the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][1][1]

Core Insights - A significant portion (72%) of the increase in the U.S. CPI exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - In this context, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Russell Investments reports that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen below 4% but remains close to fair value [1] - The firm's basic assumption is that as the labor market softens, service sector inflation should remain relatively mild [1] - This environment will allow the Federal Reserve to look past recent noise and potentially continue to lower interest rates in the upcoming month [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that part of the inflation in the service sector is attributed to rising stock prices [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the relationship between stock price increases and service sector inflation [1]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns that the government shutdown will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to the lack of official economic data [1] - Goolsbee specifically highlighted the potential absence of crucial inflation data, which poses a significant issue for the Fed [1] Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, will halt the operations of agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data [1] - Key reports that may be affected include the employment report scheduled for October 3 and the Consumer Price Index report set for October 15, both critical for assessing inflation [1] - Additional reports from the Census Bureau regarding retail sales and new residential construction are also at risk of delays [1] Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee reiterated worries about the recent rise in service sector inflation, suggesting that price pressures may persist in parts of the economy least affected by tariffs [1] - The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where policymakers will face challenges in evaluating economic trends with incomplete data [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the reasons behind the rising inflation in the services sector are difficult to explain [1] Group 1 - The services sector is experiencing inflationary pressures that are not easily understood [1]

Core Viewpoint - The high level of inflation in the U.S. services sector is concerning, with rapid price growth being more alarming than a softening job market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Harker expressed that inflation remains a significant concern within the dual mandate [1] - Current inflation rates are above desired levels and are moving in the wrong direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of over $3760 per ounce, driven by ongoing commodity inflation trends in the U.S. and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, while service sector inflation shows signs of easing [1] - The labor market is experiencing a downward trend, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, as indicated during the August global central bank meeting, suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The combination of rising tariffs contributing to inflation and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - The recent surge in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses hope that the rise in service sector inflation is only temporary [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends in the service industry to ensure they do not become persistent [1] - The statement reflects the Fed's ongoing concern about inflation dynamics and its potential impact on monetary policy [1]