Core Viewpoint - LVMH's CFO indicated that the group can increase production capacity in the U.S. due to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The company is considering expanding its production capabilities in the United States [1] - Tariffs are influencing the company's strategic decisions regarding production [1]

巴西股指维持0.9%的跌幅，巴西雷亚尔兑美元维持大约0.2%的跌幅，美国总统特朗普的关税论调让投 资者感到忧心忡忡。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：关税可能会造成瓶颈。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：目前，我们假设关税影响将是抑制通胀的。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：关税的通胀影响仍不明朗。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moncler is implementing slight price increases to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, but broader economic weakness may lead to delays in new store openings planned for next year [1][5]. Pricing Strategy - The company has raised prices by mid-single-digit percentages for the second half of 2025 and plans further increases for the first half of next year, pending clarity on U.S. tariffs for 2026 [2][4]. - Moncler typically finalizes its pricing strategy for Winter 2026 by October, indicating that it is still early in the planning process [3]. Sales Performance - Moncler reported a 1% year-on-year decline in group revenues to 396.6 million euros ($536.7 million) for the second quarter, falling short of analyst expectations [6]. - The U.S. market, which constitutes 14% of Moncler’s sales, saw a 5% sales increase, although it is uncertain if this was due to preemptive buying ahead of tariff increases [7]. Market Dynamics - Sales in Asia, Moncler's largest market, remained flat, while Europe, the Middle East, and Africa experienced an 8% decline, attributed to currency rebalancing and reduced tourist spending [8]. - The company is maintaining flexibility regarding its plans for approximately a dozen new store openings in 2026, which will be influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the recovery of the luxury sector [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the economic outlook is facing downside risks, including tariff factors [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank President Lagarde highlights concerns regarding the economic prospects [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde emphasized that a more accommodative financing environment supports demand in the Eurozone [1] - Increased defense and infrastructure spending is expected to provide additional support to the economy [1] - There is an urgent need to strengthen the Eurozone and its economy [1] Group 2 - The focus should be on enhancing competitiveness, productivity, and resilience within the Eurozone [1] - Anticipated tariffs and a stronger euro are expected to hinder investment [1]

Market Movements - As of July 24, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.38%, S&P 500 futures up 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.33% [1] - European indices also showed positive movements, with Germany's DAX up 0.57%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.97%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.42% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.77% to $65.75 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.61% to $68.93 per barrel [3][4] Company News - Smead Capital Management warned that current U.S. stock valuations have reached a "death line," similar to levels seen during the internet bubble, with top ten companies being more expensive than at the bubble's peak [4] - Google (GOOGL.US) reported Q2 revenue of $96.43 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, with cloud business sales up nearly 32% [8] - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported a 16% decline in Q2 revenue to $22.5 billion, missing analyst expectations, and warned of poor performance in upcoming quarters [9] - IBM (IBM.US) saw Q2 sales grow 8% to $17 billion, driven by its infrastructure business, but faced challenges in its software and consulting segments [10] - T-Mobile US (TMUS.US) exceeded user growth expectations in Q2, adding 830,000 contract customers, and raised its full-year guidance [11] - Nokia (NOK.US) reported a 29% drop in adjusted operating profit due to tariff impacts and a weak dollar, with revenue growth of only 2% [12] - Deutsche Bank (DB.US) turned a profit of €1.485 billion in Q2, significantly improving from a loss the previous year, driven by strong performance in fixed income and foreign exchange trading [13] - Vodafone (VOD.US) reported a 3.9% increase in Q1 revenue, with signs of stabilization in its German operations [14] - Total (TTE.US) experienced a 23% drop in Q2 profit due to falling oil and gas prices, while net debt increased by 29% [15] - Southwest Airlines (LUV.US) reported Q2 revenue of $7.24 billion, slightly below expectations, and cut its annual profit forecast by $1 billion due to economic uncertainties [16] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a recommended light - position oscillatory trading strategy [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is also recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 3,427 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan. The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,639 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 17,539 hands to 309,943 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 4,907 hands to 189,037 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons to 444,800 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 645 yuan to 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 100 yuan to - 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons; the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.5 million tons to 4,520.7 million tons; the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons; the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles; the national real estate prosperity index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.04% to 10.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01% to 10.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0082% to 11.02%; the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0580 to 1.04 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump proposed to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries and would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries opened their markets to the US [2]. - The US tariff increase would reduce global demand in the short term, raise import prices, and intensify inflation. It might also lead to geopolitical economic fragmentation [2]. - The EU and the US were moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products, and the EU was preparing a retaliatory tariff plan [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract showed an oscillatory trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was expected to be relatively sufficient in the short term, and the demand was supported by the electrolytic aluminum project [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak due to the off - season [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast aluminum alloy contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory was gradually accumulating [2].