分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 政治局会议明确以国内政策的确定性对冲外部不确定性。存在增 量的要点主要是：创设新的结构性货币政策工具，提及设立服务消费 与养老再贷款；设立新型政策性金融工具，用途是支持科技创新、扩 大消费、稳定外贸等；加大高品质住房供给；持续稳定和活跃资本市 场。所以，会议并未提到前期市场预期的财政政策的总量扩容，以加 快政策的落地实施为主，增量信息需要关注政策性金融工具等，以往 这一工具主要针对投资需求，并且历史上的"宽信用"效果较好，本 次针对科技、消费和外贸等发力。 MLF 操作和关键会议之后，债市对于货币宽松的想象空间反而缩 小了。MLF 和买断式回购可能对降准有替代作用，但其并未具备降准 在总量货币政策中的鲜明信号意义。会议之后，对于货币政策，依然 是降准可以期待，降息比较遥远的状态，对于债券交易而言，似乎与 会议前变化不大。 流动性维持稳定，短端不再调整，已经是后续想象中较为不错的 情况。银行负债和流动性内生环境的修复仍在继 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - In February, M2 growth remained stable, M1 growth declined, social financing growth rebounded, and credit growth decreased. The demand for financing remains robust despite low new home sales, with replacement bonds and corporate loans substituting for each other [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the government bond net financing is strong, indicating that the demand for real economy financing is not weak. In January and February, a total of 854.2 billion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, contributing significantly to the increase in government bonds [3][16]. - The social financing pulse is showing signs of bottoming out and recovering, with M1 and corporate profits expected to trend upward. The report highlights the importance of monitoring M1, corporate profits, and price levels as key variables for economic recovery [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Events - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for February 2025 on March 14, 2025 [8]. 2. Loans: Replacement Bonds and Corporate Loans Substituting Each Other - In January and February, the new RMB loans amounted to 6.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion yuan. The structure of loans shows a decrease in short-term loans for residents and a steady demand for medium to long-term loans [10][11]. 3. Social Financing: Strong Government Bond Net Financing, Real Economy Financing Demand Not Weak - The new social financing in January and February reached 9.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32 trillion yuan. The report indicates that the strong net financing of government bonds is a major contributor to this increase [16][17]. 4. Deposits: M1 Growth Short-term Focus on Debt Reduction, Medium-term Focus on Prices - In January and February, new RMB deposits increased by 8.74 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in resident deposits. The report suggests that M1 growth will depend on debt reduction measures and the activity level of the real economy [22][23]. 5. Bond Market: Loose Credit May Drive Interest Rates Up, Favorable for Bond Allocation - The report discusses the government's intention to implement loose monetary policy as a means to achieve loose credit, which may lead to increased bond market supply and rising interest rates, benefiting bond allocation [27][29].

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]