BMO：加拿大央行6月降息的可能性"明显增加" 金十数据5月9日讯，BMO Capital Markets首席经济学家道格•波特表示，尽管与选举相关的就业岗位暂 时提振了加拿大4月份的就业数据，但仍令人沮丧。波特说，这个月净增加的7400个工作岗位掩盖了一 些令人吃惊的数字。他说， 其中最主要的是制造业岗位减少了近3.1万个，这与该行业在疫情和2008- 2009年全球金融危机期间的下降幅度相似。波特对客户说："不需要进行考古挖掘就能意识到这是一份 疲弱的报告。"他补充说，平均时薪增长已经放缓至三年来的最低水平。他表示，就业数据"明显增加 了"加拿大央行6月份降息25个基点的可能性。 ...

市场分析：4月就业报告或促使加拿大央行考虑降息50个基点 金十数据5月9日讯，Desjardins Group经济学家蒂亚戈·菲格雷多说，加拿大央行应该对4月份的就业报告 感到担忧。他估计，如果没有与4月28日的联邦选举挂钩的招聘，加拿大的就业人数可能会减少多达3万 人。失业率升至6.9%，创疫情后新高。就业数据连续第三个月疲软，菲格雷多表示，他预计央行加拿 大官员将考虑在6月降息50个基点以支持经济。 ...

高盛预计英国央行将从2025年8月起在每次会议上都降息，并在2026年3月达到2.75%的终端利率。 ...

所有央行都在降息，但美联储是例外。 与鲍威尔说话就像是在对一堵墙说。 美国总统特朗普：美联储的（主席）鲍威尔总是行动迟缓。 ...

高盛分析师们预计：智利央行将在2025年下半年降息三次，至4.25%。 预计年底通胀率为3.9%，可能已经在3月份见顶。 ...

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy - Schroders' economist George Brown indicates that the Bank of England has less room to cut interest rates than the market expects, citing significant capacity constraints and potential inflation rise later this year, with rates likely to drop to around 4% [1] - Deutsche Bank's analyst Christopher Bartz suggests a gradual rate cut approach by the Bank of England, with a 25 basis point reduction each quarter rather than at every meeting, in response to trade uncertainties [1] Group 2: US Monetary Policy - French Foreign Trade Bank expects the Federal Reserve to restart its rate cut cycle in September, potentially lowering rates multiple times until a terminal rate of 3% is reached, with a mild rise in unemployment anticipated [2] - Seema Shah from Sian Asset Management notes the Federal Reserve's dual mandate may conflict, and while rate cuts are necessary, action is unlikely until late Q3 [2] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - Investors face uncertainty due to the impact of tariffs on the economy, with Clear Bridge's Josh Jamner stating that the Federal Reserve cannot provide certainty, and action is not expected until September unless conditions worsen significantly [3] - Swedish Commercial Bank's Magnus Lindskog predicts three rate cuts this year due to a weakening economy and downward pressure on inflation from increased tariffs, despite current inflation being above target [3]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, which is expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1% [1][2] - The reduction in policy rates is anticipated to lower various loan types, including mortgage rates, benefiting consumers and potentially stabilizing the real estate market [1][3] Group 2: Housing Loan Rates - Following the interest rate cuts, the personal housing mortgage rates are expected to decline, particularly if the 5-year LPR decreases [2][3] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans was reported at 3.11% in Q1 2025, with a further reduction in housing provident fund loan rates to 2.6% for first-time homebuyers [3] Group 3: Deposit Rates - The decline in loan rates is likely to be accompanied by a decrease in deposit rates, as banks seek to manage their net interest margins amid pressure [4][5] - Analysts predict that deposit rates may decrease by approximately 0.1%, with smaller banks already adjusting their rates downward [5][6]

交易员下调对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年仅会再降息两次。 ...

【英国央行降息25个基点，符合预期】英国央行政策利率 4.25%，预期 4.25%，前值 4.5%。 ...

英国至5月8日英国央行MPC投票赞成降息 7，预期9，前值1。 ...