Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Mainly fluctuating [1] - Palladium: Narrow - range fluctuations [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price, trading volume, position, ETF position, inventory, price difference, and exchange rate data of platinum and palladium, as well as relevant macro and industry news [2][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 497.50 with a 0.90% increase; gold - exchange platinum closed at 489.65 with a 2.64% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1892.90 with a 1.42% increase; London spot platinum (previous day) was 1899.00 with a 1.87% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 357.30 with a - 0.25% change; RMB spot palladium was 327.00 with a - 0.91% change; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1413.50 with a - 0.67% change; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1407.50 with a 2.03% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 5900 kg, a decrease of 146 kg from the previous day, and the position was 22154, an increase of 587. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 23068 kg, a decrease of 9452 kg from the previous day, and the position was 72515, an increase of 3314. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 2757 kg, a decrease of 175 kg from the previous day, and the position was 8729. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 11574 kg, a decrease of 283 kg from the previous day, and the position was 46201, a decrease of 224 [2] - **ETF Position Data**: Platinum ETF position (previous day) was 3046322 ounces, a decrease of 12534 ounces. Palladium ETF position (previous day) was 1048197 ounces, a decrease of 1489 ounces [2] - **Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum inventory (previous day) was 554241 ounces, a decrease of 4527 ounces. NYMEX palladium inventory (previous day) was 248374 ounces, with no change [2] - **Price Difference Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 price difference was - 7.85, an increase of 8.16 from the previous day; Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract price difference was 3.00, a decrease of 0.70 from the previous day; the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.16, an increase of 0.05 from the previous day; the price difference between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 20.38, a decrease of 4.58 from the previous day. The price difference between RMB spot palladium and PD2606 was - 30.30, a decrease of 2.10 from the previous day; Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract price difference was - 0.20, a decrease of 0.90 from the previous day; the cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 4.50, a decrease of 0.01 from the previous day; the price difference between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) decreased by 8.15 [2] - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 100.51, an increase of 0.32%. The US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 6.92, an increase of 0.06%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.90, a decrease of 0.25%. The US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.82, an increase of 0.05% [2] Macro and Industry News - Policy is currently in a favorable position to wait and observe how the current situation develops [4] - Private credit does not currently have the conditions to evolve into a more widespread systemic event [5] - During Powell's speech, interest - rate futures showed that the market withdrew its bets on the Fed's rate hikes this year. As of this morning's press release, it was priced that there would be a rate cut of about 3BP by the end of the year [5] - Iran's parliament approved the collection of tolls on the strait, to be paid in the Iranian local currency [6] - An oil refinery in Haifa, Israel, caught fire in a missile attack, and Trump said the response "will come soon" [7] - Trump: He is having serious negotiations with Iran. If the negotiations break down, he will destroy Iran's energy, power facilities, and Kharg Island [8] - Iran's Foreign Ministry: The issue of withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is being considered in parliament [9] - The White House: Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6. The dialogue with Iran is still ongoing and progressing smoothly. Trump intends to call on Arab countries to "pay for the war" [9] - Iran said the US requirements are illogical and will not participate in the war - related meeting led by Pakistan [9] - European officials said Iran is urging the Houthi armed forces to prepare for war in the Red Sea, and there are differences within the Houthi armed forces regarding the intensity of the strike [10] - Zelensky: Ukraine is ready to cease fire during Easter [12] - The EU Council extended the sanctions mechanism against Iran until April 13, 2027 [12] - US media: US federal prosecutors will investigate bets on the time of Maduro's arrest on a prediction platform [12] - Middle - East supply concerns have pushed Asian naphtha profits to a record high [12] - Fed Governor Milan: The Fed can gradually cut interest rates by one percentage point within a year [12] - Powell's speech: Energy shocks are usually short - lived, and the central bank's standard response is to "wait patiently for them to subside on their own" [12] Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 0; Palladium trend intensity: 0. The trend - intensity value ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [11]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing speculation around Rick Reed, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, potentially succeeding Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair is leading to significant bets on a shift towards a dovish monetary policy by the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Bond futures traders are heavily betting on the Fed adopting a more aggressive rate cut path, with the trading volume in interest rate futures linked to the federal funds rate and secured overnight financing rate reaching historical highs [1]. - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain its current policy during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a focus on the press conference that will address political pressures and the Fed Chair's future plans [1][2]. Group 2: Rick Reed's Potential Policies - If appointed, Reed is expected to implement a market-centric policy approach, advocating for more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed's typical 25 basis points, as he previously suggested a 50 basis point cut [2]. - Economists predict that Reed's dovish stance could lead to three rate cuts by the Fed this year, based on his views on productivity, inflation dynamics, and labor market pressures [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The betting odds for Reed's appointment have risen to approximately 47%, significantly higher than other candidates, indicating strong market sentiment towards his potential leadership [3]. - The interest rate swap market currently indicates that the Fed may implement less than two 25 basis point cuts by 2026, while the secured overnight financing rate options market shows a surge in bets for multiple rate cuts, targeting a federal funds rate drop to 1.5% [2]. Group 4: Options Market Activity - Significant trading activity has been observed in secured overnight financing rate options, particularly for contracts expiring in 2026, indicating a growing risk exposure among traders [4][5]. - The highest open interest in the options market is concentrated around the 96.50 strike price, with various bullish and bearish strategies being employed [5]. Group 5: Treasury Market Dynamics - The premiums for put options on long-term U.S. Treasuries have shown considerable volatility, reaching their lowest levels since September last year during a period of Treasury sell-off [6]. - As the U.S. Treasury market stabilizes, the premium levels are gradually returning to a neutral range, reflecting changing market conditions [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December is currently at 54% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant drop followed by a period of consolidation after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks raised doubts about a potential third consecutive rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 4.08% on Thursday, after surging by 10 basis points the previous trading day [1] - Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell's statement that further cuts this year are "far from guaranteed" dampened expectations for aggressive monetary easing [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Nicholas Mastoyani, a portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, noted that Powell's reaffirmation of "inflation still above target and a cooling but not collapsing labor market" created a hawkish tone that put the market at a disadvantage [1] - Futures markets indicated that traders' pricing for another rate cut by year-end plummeted from approximately 90% before the meeting to 60% afterward, reflecting an implied additional cut of about 15 basis points [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in nine months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Precious metals may lack further upward momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days due to concerns about supply disruptions from drone attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of a US central bank rate cut. However, supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. - Pig prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term due to oversupply, with attention needed on the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - Palm oil is expected to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory at the origin and weak demand, despite a decline in production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand for iron ore remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although steel demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. - The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6]. - Silver prices may be affected by gold fluctuations, and attention should be paid to whether the post - rate - cut market follows the expected trend [6]. - Rubber prices should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude as they are in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [7]. - PTA should be observed as polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply [7]. - Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades [8][10]. - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's rate cut is in place, and precious metals may lack short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - **Silver**: US construction investment is lower than expected, increasing economic downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig prices are expected to decline in the short term due to oversupply. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - **Soybeans**: Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline in Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 15 provides some support, but overall, it is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [7]. Industrial Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to observe [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - production level, and port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades [10]. - **Plastic**: Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades on dips [10]. Bonds - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month is very low, but there is a significant chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [1] Group 1 - Interest rate futures indicate minimal chances for a rate cut in the current month [1] - There is a high probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in September [1]

Core Insights - The UK interest rate futures are pricing in a 46 basis point cut by the Bank of England for the remainder of 2025, an increase from the previous expectation of a 39 basis point cut before the labor market data was released [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the Bank of England will implement a cumulative interest rate cut of approximately 35 basis points by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous expectation of 36 basis points prior to the release of UK inflation data [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Expectations** - Market forecasts a cumulative interest rate cut of about 35 basis points by the end of 2025 [1] - Prior to the inflation data release, the expectation was around 36 basis points [1] - **Inflation Data Impact** - The release of UK inflation data has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1]