需求端：开瓶率夯实消费地基 文/王芮 近期，随着"618"线上大促开启，部分电商平台飞天茅台展示价格出现松动，引发市场关注。然而，深 入线下渠道的核心腹地，却可见另一番景象：广州等多个地区的经销商与终端零售商反馈，2025年飞天 茅台成交价稳居2100元/瓶左右，部分市场零售价更普遍维持在2200元/瓶左右。一位烟酒店负责人直 言："客户认的就是这个品牌，需求一直很稳。" 线上补贴价迷雾之下，多位白酒行业分析人士点破实质——电商平台部分低价实为引流噱头，其背后 是"展示价+平台补贴"的复杂组合，商家实际到账金额仍能达2260元/瓶左右。这种非正常销售的低价既 不可持续，亦无法撼动茅台线下流通主力格局。白酒行业周期性淡季中的价格波动本是常态，而茅台作 为龙头，其一举一动被置于放大镜下审视，自然更易引发讨论波澜。 同样来自广州的经销商则表示，"目前最受市场欢迎的还是500ml的飞天酒，因为它是飞天中最经典的一 款产品，无论是收藏、投资、送礼等，它的属性是没有变的，目前我们飞天的库存不是很多。"一位贵 州经销商也表示："飞天茅台的开瓶率还是不错的。" 聚焦飞天茅台消费场景来看，宴请需求刚性持续，商务往来持续活跃，婚 ...

Concept Performance - The PET copper foil concept saw a daily increase of 2.09%, while the combustible ice concept experienced a decline of 4.14% [1] - Other notable increases included photolithography at 1.45% and BC battery at 1.13%, while short drama games fell by 3.07% [1] Low-E Glass Concept - The Low-E glass concept had a net inflow of 0.45 billion yuan, with seven stocks receiving net inflows, led by Wanshun New Materials with 20.91 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the Low-E glass concept included Wanshun New Materials, Hainan Development, and Qibin Group, with respective net inflows of 20.91 million yuan, 17.66 million yuan, and 13.23 million yuan [1] Stock Performance - As of June 20, the Low-E glass concept increased by 0.64%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with Wanshun New Materials, Hainan Development, and Qibin Group leading the gains at 4.68%, 2.64%, and 1.62% respectively [3] - Decliners in the Low-E glass concept included XinSai Co., Sanxia New Materials, and AnCai High-Tech, with declines of 2.53%, 1.00%, and 0.22% respectively [3] Fund Flow Ratios - Fund inflow ratios were highest for Qibin Group, Wanshun New Materials, and Hainan Development, with net inflow rates of 11.05%, 7.29%, and 5.62% respectively [2][4] - Wanshun New Materials had a trading volume of 20.91 million yuan and a turnover rate of 7.81% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The perovskite battery concept has shown a positive performance with a 1.06% increase, ranking fourth among concept sectors, indicating growing investor interest and potential in this technology [1][2]. Market Performance - As of June 20, the perovskite battery sector saw 35 stocks rise, with notable performers including: - Keheng Co., Ltd. (科恒股份) reaching a 20% limit up - Saiwu Technology (赛伍技术) and GCL-Poly Energy (协鑫集成) also hitting the limit up - Jin Xin Nuo (金信诺) and Woge Optoelectronics (沃格光电) increasing by 6.43% and 4.18% respectively [1][2]. - The sector experienced a net inflow of 566 million yuan, with 31 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow [2]. Key Stocks and Their Performance - The top stocks in the perovskite battery sector based on net inflow and performance include: - Keheng Co., Ltd. (科恒股份): 20% increase, 2.51 billion yuan net inflow - GCL-Poly Energy (协鑫集成): 9.91% increase, 2.50 billion yuan net inflow - Saiwu Technology (赛伍技术): 10.04% increase, 963.47 million yuan net inflow - Jin Xin Nuo (金信诺): 6.43% increase, 581.85 million yuan net inflow [3][4]. Sector Comparison - The perovskite battery sector's performance is compared to other sectors, with notable increases in: - PET Copper Foil: 2.09% - Lithography Glue: 1.45% - BC Battery: 1.13% - Conversely, sectors like Combustible Ice and Brain-Machine Interface saw declines of -4.14% and -3.34% respectively [2].

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250620 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-0.07%，深证成指涨跌幅为-0.47%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-0.83%。 申万一级行业表现：交通运输、食品饮料、银行在行业涨跌幅榜居前； 国防军工、社会服务、机械设备在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，白酒、光刻胶、保险概念表现相对较好；营 销传播、操作系统、网红经济概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 今日关注 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq ...

Nationalization Strategy - The nationalization strategy of Gujinggongjiu is a necessary choice for long-term development and an important way to achieve scale expansion and performance growth, with a current national coverage rate exceeding 70%, and a provincial structure ratio of 6:4 [1] - The company aims to develop its nationalization strategy from "horizontal" to "vertical," with core markets outside the province becoming another engine for rapid growth [1] - By building a number of large provincial markets and customers outside the province, Gujinggongjiu is expected to further increase sales scale and market share in these areas [1] "Baijiu+" Strategy - The "Baijiu+" strategy is forward-looking and innovative, helping the company to expand its business boundaries and meet diverse consumer needs, including the integration of Baijiu with traditional Chinese medicine, low-alcohol products, and the food industry [1] - Transitioning products into commodities, upgrading commodities to bestsellers, and evolving star products into perennial favorites presents significant challenges [1] Growth Opportunities - The company will continue to optimize its product structure, using Gu20 as a strategic pivot to capture the sub-high-end consumer group while expanding market share for popular products like Gu8, Gu5, and other traditional offerings [1] - The growth of sub-high-end products significantly enhances the company's overall profitability and meets consumer demand for high-quality Baijiu [2] Expansion in Health Sector - Gujinggongjiu is accelerating its entry into the health sector with the "Baijiu + Health" strategy, launching innovative products like herbal-flavored whiskey, which may help the company secure a position in the health beverage market [2] - New beverage offerings from Anhui Gujing Health Technology Co., such as 100% coconut water and herbal fermented drinks, provide new business growth points for the company [2] Innovative Consumer Experiences - The company is creating new consumer experiences by integrating brand and culture through innovative consumption scenarios, which better meet the needs of younger consumers and enhance brand loyalty [3] Mergers and Acquisitions - Gujinggongjiu's acquisition of Hubei Huanghelou Liquor Co. demonstrates strong execution in resource integration and strategic expansion, providing potential for achieving a revenue target of 30 billion [3]

Industry Dynamics - In the first five months, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 278.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4] - In May, China's beer export volume increased by 52.9% year-on-year, totaling 78.41 million liters, while the export value rose by 59.6% to 406.94 million yuan [4] - During the "618" shopping festival, Meituan's flash purchase platform reported a more than tenfold increase in white liquor sales compared to the same period last year [5] - The 2025 Sichuan International Wine Expo opened, featuring over 100 renowned wine companies from more than 10 countries [5] - Three companies, including Wuliangye, Shede, and Budweiser, were selected as advanced intelligent factories in Sichuan for 2025 [5] - Chengdu's ecological environment bureau issued "15 measures" to support the high-quality development of the liquor industry [6] Company Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai won the "Investor Relations Management Tianma Award" for its outstanding practices and shareholder returns [7] - Wuliangye issued a consumer notice clarifying that it has never sold a product called "Light Bottle Eighth Generation Wuliangye," which violates food safety laws [7] - Wuliangye's new smart packaging project is expected to enter trial production by the end of this year, with an estimated annual sales of over 3 billion yuan [8] - Jian Nan Chun's second phase of the Grand Tang National Liquor Ecological Park began production, adding 30,000 tons of quality raw liquor capacity and creating 3,000 jobs [9] - Zhujiang Beer announced a leadership change, with Huang Wensheng appointed as the new chairman [9] - Zhangyu Cabernet N188 won the highest award at the Decanter World Wine Awards, marking a significant achievement for Chinese wine [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the consumer sector, particularly the liquor industry, is experiencing a potential "double bottom" in valuation and performance by 2025, following a prolonged adjustment period [4][9]. - The Consumer ETF (159928) has shown resilience, with a recent increase of nearly 1% and a trading volume exceeding 200 million yuan, leading the sector with a total scale of over 12.1 billion yuan [1][10]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the Consumer ETF are predominantly performing well, with notable gains from Shanxi Fenjiu (over 3%) and Luzhou Laojiao (over 2%) [3]. Group 2 - The liquor industry has underperformed over the past five years, with a decline of 9% in the first half of 2025, lagging behind the overall A-share index by 15 percentage points [4][5]. - The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the liquor industry stands at 18 times, below the overall A-share average of 19 times, indicating a pessimistic market outlook for future earnings [4][6]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current adjustment period may mirror the 2012-2014 phase, where significant policy changes impacted the industry, leading to a similar decline in performance [5][6]. Group 3 - The dividend yield for the liquor sector has increased, making it more attractive compared to government bond yields, suggesting a potential valuation bottom may have been reached [7][9]. - The food and beverage sector is transitioning from high growth to reasonable growth, with expected revenue growth for listed companies in 2025 projected to remain in single digits [10]. - Emerging markets within the food and beverage sector, such as prepared foods, baking, health products, and tea beverages, are indicative of a broader trend towards consumer upgrading and entertainment [10].

Core Viewpoint - Jian Nan Chun demonstrates its industry leadership and strategic foresight through significant advancements in various key areas, particularly in production capacity and cultural initiatives [1] Group 1: Production and Investment - Jian Nan Chun has launched the second phase of the Datang National Liquor Ecological Park, with an investment of 1.667 billion yuan, enhancing its production capabilities [1] - The new facility is expected to increase annual production capacity by 30,000 to 50,000 tons of high-quality liquor and add 25,000 tons of storage capacity, generating an estimated additional output value of over 10 billion yuan and creating 3,000 jobs [1] - The expansion is strategically positioned to support upstream industry development and facilitate downstream product research and market expansion, reinforcing its market position amid high inventory levels in the current liquor industry [1] Group 2: Cultural Initiatives - The "Jian Nan Chun in the Classics - 2025 Jian Nan Chun Brand Night" event is scheduled for June 18, 2025, aimed at injecting cultural momentum into the liquor industry [1] - Jian Nan Chun is actively engaging in discussions on the innovation and inheritance of intangible cultural heritage brewing techniques, with its techniques recognized in the national list since 2008 [1] - The company has established a "Five Treasures and One Pattern" brewing system and is implementing a "Old Cellar Micro-Ecological Digital Protection" project to blend modern technology with traditional craftsmanship [1] Group 3: Internationalization Efforts - Jian Nan Chun is hosting the 2025 International Spirits Judges Annual Meeting, which aims to cultivate international judges and promote the internationalization of industry talent, enhancing China's voice in the global liquor market [1] - The company has previously laid the groundwork for international expansion through cross-industry collaborations, indicating a commitment to enhancing its global influence [1] - Recent initiatives reflect a coordinated effort in production capacity, cultural promotion, and international outreach to drive high-quality development in the liquor industry [1]

白酒股上涨，皇台酒业涨停，金种子酒、迎驾贡酒涨超5%，酒ETF涨超2.3%，银华食品ETF、华安食品饮料ETF基金、食品饮料ETF天 弘、招商食品饮料ETF、华夏食品饮料ETF、华宝食品ETF涨超1%。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 当日涨跌 | 月内涨跌 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512690.SH | 酒ETF | 2.38% | -6.02% | 鹏华基金 | | 159862.SZ | 食品ETF | 1.38% | -5.51% | 银花真金 | | 516900.SH | 食品饮料ETF基金 | 1.37% | -5.67% | 华安基金 | | 159736.SZ | 食品饮料ETF天弘 | 1.32% | -5.14% | 天弘基金 | | 159843.SZ | 食品饮料ETF | 1.27% | -5.56% | 招商基金 | | 515170.SH | 食品饮料ETF | 1.44% | -5.45% | 华夏其关 | | 515710.SH ** | 食品ETF | 1.18% | -5.29% | 华宝基等 | 中金公司 ...

微信编辑 | 生产队的驴 2025.06. 20 作者 | 一财资讯 截至午盘， 上证指数报3364.83点，涨0.08%，深成指报10032.64点，跌0.19%，创业板指报 2015.47点，跌0.56%。全市场超3200只个股下跌，近2000只个股上涨。 | 全A | 涨 1941 | 平 268 | 跌 3206 | A股成交额 | 6863.5亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | A股重要指数 | | | | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | | | 上证指数 | 3364.83 | +2.72 | +0.08% | | | | 深证成指 | 10032.64 | -19.33 | -0.19% | | | | 北证50 | 1363.90 | -1.88 | -0.14% | | | | 创业板指 | 2015.47 | -11.35 | -0.56% | | 银行股持续走强，交通银行等多股创历史新高；白酒、固态电池、光刻机概念涨幅居前，军工、油 气、稳定币概念局部活跃；短剧、CPO概念集体熄火。 | 板块名称 | 涨幅号 ...