证监许可【2011】1288号 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 报告 铂钯开启货币化 2025年12月19日 美联储降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。特朗普明确表态，下一 任美联储主席必须是相信"大幅降息"的人选。债券期权市场的仓位正在发生变化，部分交易员开始布局，押注 市场情绪可能转向预期第一季度就会降息。高盛分析师警告，当前拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008 年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。日本央行加息25个基点，日本10年期国债收益率升至2.0%。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。摩根大 通策略师团队认为，未来五年AI数据中心的建设热潮至少需要5万亿美元。美国失业率上升至4.6%，经济学家担 忧美国企业的大规模裁员是经济预警信号。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工 ...

0:00 / 1:03 美国总统特朗普17日在接受记者采访时称，委内瑞拉抢走"属于美国的"石油，美国得夺回来。 特朗普16日下令对所有进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮实施"全面彻底的封锁"，宣布把马杜罗政府列为"外国恐怖组织"，宣称要强化对委军事围 困，"直到美国拿回此前被委内瑞拉夺走的全部石油、土地和其他资源"。 在委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯街头，市民卡门告诉记者，当今的世界早已不是殖民时代，委内瑞拉人民决不允许美国前来侵犯、掠夺资源。市民珍妮弗 说，委内瑞拉是一个独立、自主的国家，没偷掠过任何国家任何东西，而美国"劣迹斑斑"，无故扣押委内瑞拉油轮就是明显的例证。 珍妮弗说："美国带着明确的目的而来，那就是对我们国家进行无耻的掠夺。" 特朗普在安德鲁斯空军基地表示："请记住，他们夺走了我们所有的能源权益。不久前，他们夺走了我们所有的石油。我们要夺回这些权益。他们非 法剥夺了我们的权益。" 近期，美国以"缉毒"为由，在委内瑞拉附近加勒比海域部署多艘军舰，对委施压。特朗普11月底威胁可能"很快"通过陆路打击委内瑞拉"毒贩"。委内 瑞拉多次指责美国意图通过军事威胁在委策动政权更迭，并在拉美军事扩张。 同一天，委内瑞拉国防部 ...

古特雷斯呼吁缓和委内瑞拉紧张局势 据新华社报道，联合国秘书长古特雷斯的副发言人哈克17日表示，古特雷斯呼吁各方保持克制，立即缓 和委内瑞拉紧张局势。 哈克当天在记者会上回答媒体提问时说，古特雷斯正在密切关注当前局势，并与相关各方保持沟通，致 力于避免局势进一步升级。古特雷斯呼吁所有利益攸关方履行其在国际法、包括《联合国宪章》和任何 其他适用的法律框架所规定的义务，以维护地区和平。 据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间12月17日，美国总统特朗普在接受记者采访时称，委内瑞拉抢走了"属于 美国的"石油和土地，美国得夺回这一切。 同一天，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗说，他已与联合国秘书长古特雷斯通话，控诉美国对委内瑞拉侵略和威 胁。马杜罗表示，美国不仅宣称委内瑞拉的石油和矿产属于他们，甚至还抛出委内瑞拉的土地也属于美 国的说法，这简直闻所未闻。马杜罗重申，委内瑞拉永远不会成为任何国家或任何人的殖民地。 委内瑞拉防长：特朗普封锁加勒比海域是"妄想" 委内瑞拉国防部长洛佩斯17日表示，美国总统特朗普有关封锁加勒比海域的言论是"妄想"。 洛佩斯说，加勒比海域本是合作、自由贸易、自由航行的空间，而非服务于美国利益的封闭海域。美国 声称委内瑞 ...

新华财经北京12月18日电当地时间17日晚间，美国总统特朗普发表讲话，重点回顾自己的"年度政绩"， 全程未提及此前外界普遍关注的对委内瑞拉动武可能性。 就在特朗普发表讲话前，美国国会众议院以微弱差距否决了两项旨在遏制特朗普对委内瑞拉强硬攻势的 决议。另有消息人士透露，国会议员曾被告知，特朗普将在全国讲话中宣布"一场战争即将到来"。 并未提及委内瑞拉 特朗普17日晚间的讲话时长不到20分钟，几乎没有透露他即将推出的计划，也未重点提及那些在他第二 任期内占据重要分量的外交政策议题。 美国国内意见不一 关于特朗普将"向委内瑞拉宣战"的猜测甚嚣尘上之际，美国国会众议院17日投票否决了两项可能会掣肘 特朗普进一步行动的决议。 当天，在共和党占据多数席位的众议院，美国国会众议院外交委员会民主党籍高级委员格雷戈里·米克 斯提出的一项决议，以216票反对、210票支持的结果被否决。该决议要求，除非获得国会授权，否则美 军应停止对西半球范围内任何"由总统认定的恐怖组织"的敌对行动。 此外，马萨诸塞州民主党籍众议员吉姆·麦戈文提出的另一项决议案，也以213票反对、211票支持的结 果被否决。该决议要求总统在未获国会授权的情况下， ...

特朗普16日下令对所有进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮实施"全面彻底的封锁"，宣布把马杜罗政府列 为"外国恐怖组织"，宣称要强化对委军事围困，"直到美国拿回此前被委内瑞拉夺走的全部石油、土地 和其他资源"。 近期，美国以"缉毒"为由，在委内瑞拉附近加勒比海域部署多艘军舰，对委施压。特朗普11月底威胁可 能"很快"通过陆路打击委内瑞拉"毒贩"。委内瑞拉多次指责美国意图通过军事威胁在委策动政权更迭， 并在拉美军事扩张。（完） （文章来源：新华社） 委内瑞拉国防部长洛佩斯17日表示，美国总统特朗普有关封锁加勒比海域的言论是"妄想"。 洛佩斯说，加勒比海域本是合作、自由贸易、自由航行的空间，而非服务于美国利益的封闭海域。美国 声称委内瑞拉"窃取"美国石油资源更是无稽之谈。 委内瑞拉国防部当天经由社交媒体发布的一份政府公报说，特朗普的言论与做法构成粗鄙的海盗行径。 这证实了其此前扬言打击"毒品恐怖主义"是虚假叙事，真实目的是推动委内瑞拉政权更迭，并粗暴掠夺 石油及其他自然资源，是"门罗主义"的复辟。委方呼吁各多边组织针对美方危及拉美和加勒比地区及世 界能源稳定的疯狂好战态度采取行动。 ...

声明表示，美国的极限施压和经济窒息政策对古巴国家能源系统造成直接冲击，严重影响古巴人民日常 生活。 声明强调，美国武力扣船是"门罗主义"行为，破坏了拉美和加勒比国家共同体《宣布拉美和加勒比为和 平区的公告》。古方对此坚决反对，并呼吁国际社会予以谴责。 美国10日用军事手段在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押一艘大型油轮，11日宣布将没收油轮所载石油。委内瑞拉 外交部长希尔谴责美军扣押油轮是"国际海盗行为"。 新华财经加拉加斯12月13日电 哈瓦那消息：古巴外交部12日发表声明，强烈谴责美军近日在国际水域 抢劫一艘向古巴运输燃料的油轮，指出美方此类"海盗行径"旨在加剧对古经济战争。 声明说，12月10日，美国军事力量在加勒比海靠近委内瑞拉海岸的国际水域抢劫一艘正在航行的油轮。 这一行为严重违反《联合国海洋法公约》及《制止危及海上航行安全非法行为公约》，构成"海盗行 径"和"海上恐怖主义"。美国政府应对这一损害国际社会整体利益的犯罪行为负责。 声明指出，美方此举是手段升级的体现，意在阻碍委内瑞拉与其他国家开展正常经贸往来，尤其是切断 委内瑞拉对古巴的油气供应。自特朗普第一次担任美国总统以来，美方就采取多种措施阻碍委内瑞拉石 油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is turning weak. The Fed's actions, such as rate - cuts and short - term bond purchases, along with various economic indicators in the US and other countries, suggest a complex economic situation. The US's policy adjustments and economic trends, including consumer K - type differentiation, employment data, and retail sales, indicate potential economic challenges. Additionally, the AI - driven investment boom and the supply - demand imbalances in some industries are also significant factors affecting the global economic landscape [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Global Economic News - The Fed will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain sufficient reserve supply, with the New York Fed planning to buy $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days and expecting high - scale purchases in the coming months [1] - If SpaceX goes public at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Elon Musk's stake in the company could increase from $136 billion to over $625 billion [1] - Starcloud, an orbital data center startup, has achieved the first attempt to train a large - language model in space, with a satellite carrying NVIDIA's H100 GPU running an application based on Google's open - source model Gemma [1] - GE Vernova, one of the three oligarchs in the global gas turbine market, expects to sign 80 gigawatts of combined - cycle gas turbine contracts by the end of the year, and its gas turbine production capacity is almost sold out until 2029 [1] - The storage industry is facing unprecedented supply - demand tensions. DRAM shortages are expected to last until Q1 2027, with DDR demand growing 20.7% far exceeding supply growth, and NAND shortages expected to continue until Q3 2026 [1] - US AI five giants' capital expenditure in Q3 increased by 72.9% year - on - year, and except for Microsoft, the other four have negative free cash flows, with potential capital expenditure vulnerability worsening next year [1] - The former executive director of the Bank of Japan predicts that Governor Kazuo Ueda may raise interest rates up to four times before 2027, indicating a more aggressive tightening cycle [1] - There is an unprecedented surplus in crude oil supply, but Brent oil prices remain stable at $61 - 66 due to uncertainty about the effective supply from sanctioned countries. If sea - borne inventories move to land, oil prices may drop significantly [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and resumed expanding its balance sheet by buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Las Vegas gambling revenue decline shows a consumption trend similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US issued a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows increased K - type differentiation among consumers, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families cut back [2] - ADP employment data shows that private companies cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit [2] - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.96%, the highest since July 2007 [2] - Morgan Stanley expects AI - driven investment to expand the credit market, with the total issuance of investment - grade bonds surging to $2.25 trillion [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center planned capacity has soared to 245 gigawatts, with a 45 - gigawatt increase in Q3 alone [2] - US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, indicating a consumer spending cut [2] - Economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs in the US are an economic warning signal [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major global assets, and the global economy is turning weak [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the new U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) under the Trump administration, highlighting a focus on the Western Hemisphere and a critical stance towards Europe while seeking to rebuild strategic stability with Russia [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy - The NSS emphasizes the "Trump Corollary" which aims to prevent foreign competitors from deploying military forces in the Western Hemisphere, asserting U.S. leadership in the region [3][4]. - The strategy reflects a historical precedent set by the Monroe Doctrine, which rejected European interference in the Americas, and is seen as a justification for U.S. intervention in its sphere of influence [4][5]. Group 2: Relations with Europe and Russia - The NSS expresses uncertainty about Europe's reliability as an ally, criticizing its immigration policies and suggesting a more adversarial stance towards European nations [6]. - In contrast, the strategy indicates a desire to rebuild strategic stability with Russia, despite minimal references to military threats from China [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The article suggests that the "Trump Corollary" is not merely a return to isolationism but a strategic redefinition of U.S. foreign policy aimed at national interests, exemplified by the use of tariffs in trade negotiations [5]. - The intertwining of U.S. security strategy with cultural wars reflects a deeper ideological divide, with significant implications for future U.S. foreign policy beyond the current administration [6].

迪亚斯–卡内尔在社交平台X上发文称，"古巴强烈谴责美军在加勒比海袭击一艘油轮的行为。"他表示 全力支持委内瑞拉政府，并谴责此次袭击是"海盗行为、违反国际法，是对（古巴的）兄弟国家侵略行 为的升级。" 拉丁美洲通讯社称，这一极为严重的侵略升级行径，发生在美国公布2025《国家安全战略》之后，这一 战略试图重新推行"门罗主义"这一臭名昭著的外交政策。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据古巴拉丁美洲通讯社11日报道，古巴国家主席迪亚斯–卡内尔发文，强烈谴 责美军在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押油轮的行为，斥其为"海盗行为"。 美国总统特朗普10日在白宫对媒体说，美军在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押了一艘油轮，是"迄今扣押的最大 一艘"。他没有透露更多细节。委内瑞拉外长希尔同日通过社交媒体发布政府公报，谴责美军在委内瑞 拉附近海域扣押油轮，表示这是"无耻的盗窃"以及"国际海盗行为"。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is intensifying its military actions against suspected drug traffickers in Venezuela, with President Trump hinting at possible expansions of military operations into Mexico and Colombia [1] - A secret briefing was held for Congress members by key national security advisors, including Secretary of State Rubio and Defense Secretary Hegseth, to discuss strategies against drug trafficking [1] - Democratic leaders expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of a clear strategy presented during the briefing, while most Republicans refrained from commenting [1] Group 2 - On December 9, two U.S. F-18 fighter jets entered Venezuelan airspace, flying close to the city of Maracaibo and remaining in the area for at least 40 minutes [2] - The flight path of the U.S. jets indicated they flew over critical energy regions in Venezuela, specifically between La Guaira and Falcon state [2] - Additionally, a U.S. MQ-4C Triton drone was spotted over the coastal region of Venezuela, conducting surveillance without entering Venezuelan sovereign airspace [4] Group 3 - The U.S. National Security Strategy report released on December 4 introduced the "Trump Doctrine" as a new version of the Monroe Doctrine, aiming to assert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and increase military presence in Latin America [6] - The U.S. has deployed multiple naval vessels in the Caribbean near Venezuela under the pretext of anti-drug operations, which Venezuela claims is a military threat aimed at regime change [6]