格隆汇9月25日｜摩根大通私人银行周四称，对2026年年中的黄金价格展望为4050-4150美元/盎司，预 计金价未来将持续创新高。该行表示，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔的言论未能给出未来降息的明确时间表， 但如果美国经济状况进一步走弱，美联储将会持续降息，这将继续利好黄金。随着黄金近期的上涨，投 资者可以考虑通过结构性产品获得更好的黄金入场点。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

近期，国际黄金价格屡创新高。当地时间9月23日，COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，盘中一度涨至3824.60美元/盎司创盘中历史新高。随着 国际黄金价格走高，国内金饰价格也随之攀升。9月23日，周生生足金首饰价格达到1100元/克，比前一日上涨10元/克；周大福和老凤祥足金首饰升至 1098元/克。 自年初以来，国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步，持续攀升，年内国际黄金价格涨幅已接近43%，国内黄金价格上涨约38%。 "黄金价格上涨是美联储政策转向、全球央行购金潮以及地缘政治风险等多重因素共同作用的结果。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受《中 国报道》记者采访时说。 美联储降息是最直接的催化剂 北京时间9月18凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次 降息。 "美联储货币政策转向是本轮黄金价格上涨的直接催化剂。"刘英指出，美联储本次降息25个基点，随后大概率还会再降息2次，这种宽松货币政策对黄金 价格上涨形成直接支撑。 美联储如期降息后，市场关注点转向年内后续降息路径。联邦 ...

此外，全球央行购金潮延续强劲势头，成为支撑金价的重要基石。9月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显 示，截至8月末，我国黄金储备为7402万盎司，较7月末的7396万盎司增加6万盎司，为连续第10个月增 持黄金。 世界黄金协会数据显示，今年以来截至9月19日，全球央行购金的前三大买家为美国、英国、瑞士。 本报记者 毛艺融 随着美联储降息"靴子"落地，国际金价连日来延续涨势。Wind资讯数据显示，截至北京时间9月24日记 者发稿，美国纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金盘中一度涨超3812.6美元/盎司，伦敦金现（现货黄金） 也以3779.41美元/盎司的价格继续维持高位，上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约一度涨至856.80 元/克。 全球投资者疯狂"扫货"黄金ETF。根据世界黄金协会的数据，截至9月19日，全球黄金ETF持仓量出现了 三年来最快速度的增长，黄金ETF的总持金量为3779.4吨，创2022年8月份以来最高。今年第一季度、 第二季度的净流入量分别为226.6吨、170.5吨，远超去年同期，为金价上涨注入了新动力。 截至9月19日，全球年内流入量第一的黄金ETF为美国的SPDRGoldShares，年内黄 ...

国内金饰价格突破1100元/克。 国际金价和国内金价再创新高之际，记者发现，日前国内部分黄金珠宝品牌的金饰价格也再攀新高，并突破了1100元/ 克。 对于后市金价的走势，中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，黄金的上涨行情并 未结束，四季度上行逻辑依然顺畅。 金价再创新高之际 国内金饰突破1100元/克 金价的上涨也传导至产业链下游。 据知名黄金珠宝品牌周生生官网，其足金饰品价格一度超过1100元/克。9月24日9时56分，周生生官网显示，其足金饰 品价格为1105元/克，当天下午的价格有所下降，但仍达1100元/克。 另一家知名黄金珠宝品牌周大福官网数据显示，9月24日其足金（饰品、工艺品类）价格也已逼近1100元/克，为1098 元/克。 金饰价格再攀新高的背后，是黄金价格的持续上行。 数据显示，9月24日上海黄金交易所Au99.99合约价格一度高达856.80元/克，再创出历史新高。今年9月以来，上海黄 金交易所Au99.99合约价格累计已上涨近10%，今年以来该合约价格累计上涨近四成。 国内黄金期货方面，9月24日上海期货交易所黄金期货主力合约亦进一步上行，盘中价格最高 ...

Group 1: Core Drivers of Gold Price Increase - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has opened up liquidity, acting as a key catalyst for the recent surge in gold prices, alleviating previous pressure from interest rates and encouraging investment in safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Global central bank gold purchases have returned to normal levels, with a total demand of 63 tons, reinforcing bullish market sentiment and restoring the UK's gold export levels, particularly towards China [3] - Resilience in investment holdings is evident, with hedge funds maintaining a balanced position in gold, and ETF holdings increasing by 204 tons despite a significant drop in economic policy uncertainty [4] Group 2: Long-term Support from China - China's gold reserves are relatively low, accounting for only 8.6% of its total foreign exchange reserves, indicating significant room for optimization, with a potential target of increasing gold reserves to 20% requiring an additional 3,036 tons [5] - The pace of China's gold purchases is gradual, averaging 33 tons per month, suggesting a controlled impact on the market, with a projected timeline of nearly 8 years to fill the reserve gap [6] - China's consistent gold purchasing behavior is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, especially amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties and accommodative monetary policies from major economies [8]

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a historical high, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3829.70 per ounce on September 23, leading to a surge in stock prices of gold companies in the A-share market, such as Zhongjin Gold and Xiaocheng Technology [1] - The retail price of gold jewelry has also increased, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang pricing gold at approximately 1085-1090 yuan per gram, despite limited discounts during the holiday season [3] - The high gold prices have resulted in a decrease in sales volume, although total sales revenue has increased due to higher prices per item [3] Group 2 - Institutions are showing heightened interest in researching gold companies, focusing on pricing strategies, cost control, and production targets for the second half of the year [3] - Companies like Chifeng Gold reported an average selling price of 699.5 yuan per gram for gold in the first half of the year, with a focus on cost efficiency and global acquisition opportunities [4] - The trend of H-share listings among gold companies is accelerating, with firms like Shanjin International planning to issue H-shares to enhance global business development and optimize capital structure [6]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, driven by investor demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 23, 2023, COMEX gold futures peaked at $3,824.60 per ounce, closing at $3,796.9, marking a 0.42% increase [1]. - Since September, international gold prices have risen approximately 9%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China have also surged, with prices reaching 1,100 yuan per gram for certain brands [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated increased risks in the job market, which influenced the decision to lower interest rates [2]. - More than half of the Federal Reserve officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts this year, suggesting potential actions in October and December [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - JPMorgan's latest report predicts that spot gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 if investor sentiment shifts significantly [3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, noting that a shift of just 1% of individual investors' holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold could push prices close to $5,000 per ounce [3].

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures hitting $3824.60 per ounce on September 23, closing at $3796.90, a 0.42% increase [1] - The London spot gold price also set a new intraday high at $3791.08 per ounce on the same day [1] - Since September, international gold prices have risen approximately 9%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices are expected to reach new highs, with weekly gold jewelry prices from Zhou Shengsheng hitting 1100 RMB per gram, a 10 RMB increase from the previous day [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the risks to the job market are increasing, which was a key reason for the recent interest rate cut [2] - More than half of Federal Reserve officials expect at least two more rate cuts this year, suggesting potential actions in October and December [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that spot gold prices will exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5000 if the independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged [5] - The primary driver of the current gold price surge has shifted from central bank demand to investor demand, with a significant inflow into gold ETFs due to declining U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, noting the possibility of prices exceeding $4500 per ounce [5]

本报记者 贺王娟 近期，黄金价格屡创新高，再度成为资本市场焦点。Wind资讯数据显示，北京时间9月23日，COMEX 黄金盘中一度涨超3824.6美元/盎司，伦敦金现（现货黄金）也以3791.08美元/盎司的价格屡创历史新 高，SHFE黄金最高触及856.30元/克。 金饰方面，9月23日，周大福、周大生、老庙黄金、潮宏基等黄金珠宝品牌足金报价逼近1100元/克。以 周生生为例，金投网数据显示，1月2日，周生生足金报价803元/克，9月23日，周生生足金报价1100元/ 克，以此计算，年内该品牌金价已上调297元/克，涨幅为36.99%，与SHFE黄金价格年内涨幅基本持 平。 产业链上下游喜忧参半 事实上，市场对于金价上涨，开启长牛模式早有预期。北京时间9月18日，美联储宣布降息25个基点， 成为金价上涨的关键催化剂。深圳市前海排排网基金销售有限责任公司研究总监刘有华对《证券日报》 记者表示，黄金本轮上涨主要源于美联储降息导致美元资产收益率下行，降低了持有黄金的机会成本， 同时美元走弱也增强了黄金吸引力。此外，地缘政治局势持续紧张，推升市场避险情绪，进一步助推金 价走强。 金价走高直接利好上游金矿企业；上半年 ...

Core Insights - Recent surge in gold prices has captured market attention, with COMEX gold reaching over $3824.6 per ounce and SHFE gold hitting a high of 856.30 yuan per gram [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have heightened market risk aversion [2] Gold Mining Companies - Gold mining companies have benefited from rising gold prices, with domestic gold prices increasing by 24.50% in the first half of the year, leading to significant revenue and profit growth for A-share listed gold mining companies [2] - Companies like Sichuan Gold and others are actively expanding production and exploring new mining opportunities to capitalize on high gold prices [4][5] Jewelry Companies - Traditional jewelry companies such as China Gold and Lao Feng Xiang are facing challenges, with China Gold reporting a revenue decline of 11.54% and a net profit drop of 46.35% [2] - The rising gold prices have negatively impacted consumer demand for gold jewelry, with a reported 26.00% decrease in gold jewelry consumption in the first half of the year [2] Market Trends - The gold price has continued to rise into the third quarter, with SHFE gold increasing by 11.84% from July 1 to September 23, indicating potential further earnings growth for gold mining companies [3] - Jewelry brands are launching marketing campaigns to attract customers, but foot traffic in stores has significantly decreased, indicating a challenging retail environment [3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and macroeconomic uncertainties [4] - Companies are focusing on resource expansion and acquisition strategies to enhance production capabilities in response to favorable market conditions [5]