引言：在经历一轮调整 后，当前创新药的投资安全边际已较高，再叠加四季度国家医保谈判等利好催化，创新药的配置价值凸 显。 文/每日财报 杨悦 10月底，经历了一波震荡调整的创新药板块再度起飞，10月 31日收盘，当天多只创新药指数涨幅均超 3%，国证港股通创新药指数单日涨幅3.71%，跟踪该指数的港股通创新药ETF南方（159297）等产品同 样应声上涨。 消息面上，10月30日，2025年国家医保谈判在延续医保目录常规调整机制的基础上，首次引入"商保创 新药目录"机制。市场认为，这有望为创新药打开更广阔的市场空间。 拉长时间来看，此次创新药板块反弹或非情绪修复的偶然，而是政策、估值与产业周期共振的必然。在 经历一轮调整后，当前创新药的投资安全边际已较高，再叠加四季度国家医保谈判等利好催化，创新药 的配置价值凸显。 短暂调整后，创新药仍是"黄金赛道" 创新药的灵魂在于"新"，新药、新疗法对适应症有着突破性疗效，将极大改善患者的生活质量、延长生 存期甚至彻底治疗疾病。 以非小细胞肺癌为例，相较传统化疗，PD-1相关疗法可直接将患者的5年生存率提升近3倍，3年无进展 生存概率翻倍。这不仅给患者带来更大的希望，也为创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady internal revenue growth in Q3, with expectations that the upfront payment from the collaboration with GSK will be confirmed in Q4, indicating that the revenue growth for Q3 aligns with expectations. The confirmed upfront payment from business development (BD) is expected to be relatively small, while innovative drug sales are anticipated to continue growing rapidly [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.18 billion (up 14.9%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.75 billion (up 24.5%). The Q3 revenue was 7.43 billion (up 12.7%), with a net profit of 1.30 billion (up 9.5%) and a non-GAAP net profit of 1.32 billion (up 16.7%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 86.2% (up 0.3 percentage points), with total period expense ratio at 58.3% (down 1.6 percentage points). The net profit margin was 24.8% (up 2.0 percentage points). In Q3, the gross profit margin was 85.5% (no change), with total period expense ratio at 65.4% (down 0.1 percentage points) and a net profit margin of 17.6% (down 0.5 percentage points) [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.44 billion, 39.05 billion, and 43.88 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 23.1%, 13.4%, and 12.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.18 billion, 10.70 billion, and 11.77 billion, with growth rates of 44.9%, 16.6%, and 10.0%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 45, 39, and 35 times [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive market response to innovative drug companies in Hong Kong, with notable stock increases for companies like Kangfang Biotech and Innovent Biologics, driven by the initiation of the 2025 National Medical Insurance negotiations [1] - The 2025 National Medical Insurance negotiations began on October 30, expected to last 4-5 days, focusing first on basic medical insurance and then on commercial insurance for innovative drugs [1] - A total of 535 drug names passed the formal review for the basic medical insurance directory, with 311 outside the directory and 224 within it, while 121 drug names were reviewed for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (513120) has seen over 1 billion yuan in net inflows in the past 10 days, with a total net inflow of over 9.218 billion yuan year-to-date, reaching a latest scale of 23.468 billion yuan [2] - The ETF focuses on high-quality biotech companies in the Hong Kong market, covering sectors such as innovative drugs, gene therapy, and cutting-edge biotechnology, with a combined weight of 88.9% in biopharmaceuticals and chemical pharmaceuticals [2] - The ETF includes major stocks like Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and Kangfang Biotech, providing a convenient and efficient investment tool for investors with T+0 trading support [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kelong Pharmaceutical's stock has experienced a decline of 2.00% on November 3, with a current price of 34.30 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 54.813 billion CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Kelong Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 13.277 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 20.92%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.201 billion CNY, down 51.41% year-on-year [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of 6.898 billion CNY since its A-share listing, with 3.587 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - Kelong Pharmaceutical's stock price has increased by 17.05% year-to-date, but has seen declines of 1.18% over the last five trading days, 6.73% over the last 20 days, and 7.41% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent instance on April 30, where it recorded a net purchase of 31.8792 million CNY [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Kelong Pharmaceutical had 37,100 shareholders, an increase of 8.35% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder was 35,200, a decrease of 7.70% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various funds, with notable reductions in holdings for several institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (Southern, 159297) has shown significant market activity, with a recent increase of 3.38% and a trading volume of 170 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest in the innovative drug sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (Southern, 159297) reached a new high in both scale and shares since its inception as of October 31 [1] - The ETF has experienced net inflows for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 18.9 million yuan [1] - The index it tracks, the National Certificate Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, rose by 3.67%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Senhwa Biosciences (up 10.11%) and Kanglongda (up 8.80%) [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry Insights - The ongoing negotiations for the National Medical Insurance drug list are complemented by a new commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, aimed at providing new payment channels for high-value innovative drugs [1] - The CAR-T cell drug, Rukiyou Lunsai injection from WuXi AppTec, is making progress in negotiations to be included in the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, with a listed price of 1.29 million yuan per injection [1] - Open Source Securities notes that the current innovative drugs included in both medical insurance and commercial insurance are in the early stages of volume growth, with potential for rapid revenue increases as policies continue to support innovative drugs [2] Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - According to Guotou Securities, the proportion of all funds heavily invested in Biotech innovative drug companies has increased to 27.53%, reflecting a 2.61 percentage point rise, indicating growing institutional interest in the innovative drug sector [2] - The increasing allocation of funds to the innovative drug sector suggests a strong market recognition of its long-term development potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - Microchip Biotech's stock has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong business performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 3, Microchip Biotech's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 31.49 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.65 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.70%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 128.42 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Microchip Biotech's stock price has increased by 69.48%, with a 7.55% rise over the last five trading days, a 2.71% increase over the last 20 days, and a 15.91% decline over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent occurrence on July 3 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Microchip Biotech reported a revenue of 674 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70.77 million CNY, which is a remarkable increase of 238.53% [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 24,400, a rise of 25.25%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 20.16% to 16,681 shares [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Microchip Biotech, established on March 21, 2001, and listed on August 12, 2019, is located in the Zhigu Industrial Park, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province [1]. - The company's main business involves providing affordable, clinically needed original new molecular entity drugs, with 97.80% of its revenue coming from product sales, 1.81% from other sources, 0.27% from technology licensing, and 0.13% from other income [1]. - Microchip Biotech operates within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, specifically in chemical pharmaceuticals and formulations, and is involved in concepts such as anti-cancer drugs, biopharmaceuticals, AI medicine, and innovative drugs [1].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective adjustment in the morning session, with sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, oil and gas extraction and services, coal mining and processing, short drama games, papermaking, banking, and private hospitals showing significant gains [1] - Conversely, sectors including batteries, non-ferrous metals, photolithography machines, semiconductors, CPO, and PCB concepts faced notable declines [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the innovative drug concept experiencing a surge, while coal and banking sectors also posted gains, and technology stocks saw slight declines [1] - By midday, the CSI A500 index fell by 0.7%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.5%, the ChiNext index dropped by 1.4%, and the STAR Market 50 index declined by 2.4%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.7% [1] Index Composition - The ChiNext index, tracked by the ChiNext ETF, consists of 100 stocks from the ChiNext market that have large market capitalization and good liquidity, with a high proportion of strategic emerging industries, particularly in the power equipment, communication, and electronics sectors, which together account for nearly 60% [3] - The STAR Market 50 index, tracked by the STAR Market 50 ETF, includes 50 stocks from the STAR Market with large market capitalization and good liquidity, featuring significant characteristics of technology leaders, with semiconductors accounting for over 65%, and combined with medical devices and software development, these sectors account for nearly 80% [3] - The H-share ETF represents the Hong Kong stock market's broad-based index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight increase of 0.11%. There was a rise in risk-averse sentiment, leading to gains in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, film, and medical devices. The medical device ETF (562600) saw a net inflow of 20 million over five days, accounting for 29.19% of its trading volume. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for innovative drugs and medical devices, aiming to drive economic growth through breakthroughs in key technologies in biomanufacturing and brain-computer interfaces. This strategic arrangement aligns the pharmaceutical industry's upgrade with national economic optimization, promoting higher quality development in the sector. Looking ahead, overseas markets show advantages in price stability and healthcare payment, with leading medical device companies experiencing faster growth abroad compared to the domestic market. The focus in the domestic market is shifting towards high-barrier innovation sectors, with policies supporting AI and brain-computer interface products, which will catalyze the commercialization of new products [1]. Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight increase of 0.11% last week, with fluctuations observed [1] - Medical device ETF (562600) received a net inflow of 20 million, representing 29.19% of its trading volume [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for innovative drugs and medical devices, aiming for breakthroughs in key technologies [1] Group 2 - Overseas markets exhibit advantages in price stability and healthcare payment, with leading companies growing faster abroad [1] - The domestic market is shifting focus to high-barrier innovation sectors, supported by policies for AI and brain-computer interface products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ailis has experienced a significant stock price increase of 78.19% year-to-date, but has recently faced a decline in the short term, with a 6.99% drop over the last five trading days [1] Company Overview - Ailis is based in Shanghai and specializes in the research, production, and sales of innovative pharmaceuticals, with 99.93% of its revenue coming from drug sales [1] - The company was established on March 22, 2004, and went public on December 2, 2020 [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ailis reported a revenue of 3.733 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.35% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.616 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.01% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Ailis had 19,100 shareholders, an increase of 46.82% from the previous period [2] - The average number of tradable shares per shareholder decreased by 31.89% to 23,551 shares [2] Dividend Information - Ailis has distributed a total of 653 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth-largest shareholder, holding 20.9471 million shares, an increase of 10.5693 million shares from the previous period [3] - Other notable institutional shareholders include China Europe Medical Health Mixed A and E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF, with varying changes in their holdings [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 231.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 57.5 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 74.3 billion yuan, a 12.7% increase, with a net profit of 13.0 billion yuan, marking a 9.5% growth [4][5]. - The company is expected to confirm a collaboration payment from GSK in Q4, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 86.2%, with a net profit margin of 24.8% [6]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 17.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 344.4 billion yuan, 390.5 billion yuan, and 438.8 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 91.8 billion yuan, 107.0 billion yuan, and 117.7 billion yuan [7][10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation Metrics - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.38 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.77 yuan, respectively [10][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are projected to be 45, 39, and 35 times [7][10]. - The company is recognized as a leading innovative pharmaceutical enterprise in China, with a highly differentiated product matrix [7].