证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 3 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 创新药行业周报 国内医药龙头公司在研创新管线价值开启密集兑现 ——创新药行业周报（7.28-8.3） 相关研究： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张德燕 证书编号：S0500521120003 Tel：(8621) 50295326 Email：zhangdy @xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 市场分析与展望 ❑ 投资建议 2025 年国内创新药产业有望迎来拐点，产业运行趋势由资本驱动转向盈 利驱动，板块有望迎来业绩与估值双重修复投资机会。 基本面边际变化持续支撑二级市场回暖。 1、盈利元年：创新产品陆续商业化，头部创新药企业开启盈利周期。 | 1.《国内创新药资产持续得到国内 | | --- | | 外产业资本认可，产业拐点来临》 | | 2025.7.20 | | 2.《COPD落地重磅交易，关注呼吸 | | 赛道创新驱动机遇》 2025.7.12 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 10.2 17.0 34.1 绝对收益 1 ...

Market Performance - On July 1, the major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly higher and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also opening with minor gains. The Shanghai Composite Index showed a fluctuating upward trend throughout the day, closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39%, marking a new year-to-date closing high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92 points, down 0.24%. The total trading volume for the Shanghai market was approximately 553.6 billion yuan, and for the Shenzhen market, it was about 912.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the gains, with significant increases in various sub-sectors such as immunotherapy, innovative drugs, recombinant proteins, generic drugs, weight loss drugs, hepatitis concepts, and hair medical treatments. Other sectors that saw notable increases included shipbuilding, industrial gases, photolithography machines, banking, and superconducting concepts [1] - Conversely, digital currency stocks experienced significant declines, along with substantial adjustments in sectors like electronic identification, cross-border payments, and Web3 concepts [1] Institutional Insights - According to institutional views, the market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a historical 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in July. Investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors in the early part of the month and shift attention to mid-year performance reports and policy movements later on. Key sectors to watch include technology (semiconductors, AI), military industry, and high-growth areas in mid-year reports [2] - Another institution emphasized the importance of focusing on performance-driven sectors and stable assets as the earnings season approaches, with expected growth in industries such as steel, computers, and defense [2] Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced that a draft for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory and the medical insurance directory will be released soon. This initiative aims to streamline the application process for companies and ensure that both directories are aligned in their adjustments [4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is accelerating the development of the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on enhancing the capabilities of young talents in intelligent development and digital marketing [5]

消息面上，据智通财经，记者不完全统计，刚刚过去的5月，至少6家国内创新药企对外官宣了BD交易 订单，大部分是中外药企之间的跨境合作。重磅BD已然成为催化创新药二级市场行情的关键因素。 2025年初至今，创新药出海交易总金额已达455亿美元，首付款已达到22亿美元，全年有望创新高。 6月首个交易日，港股市场开盘走强，医药股上涨。相关ETF方面，港股创新药ETF（159567）盘初上 涨0.22%，翰森制药涨近4%，石药集团，康方生物、再鼎医药等多股跟涨。 招银国际表示，受益于创新药出海交易、国内集采政策优化、创新药丙类医保目录落地、医疗设备招标 复苏、内需复苏等积极因素推动，医药行业有望在2025年继续迎来估值修复。 港股创新药ETF（159567）紧密跟踪港股通创新药指数（987018），该指数反映港股通生物科技产业上 市公司的运行特征。 最新来看，6月2日，翰森制药发布公告，宣布其全资附属公司上海翰森生物医药科技有限公司与 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.签订了一项许可协议。根据该协议，许可人将授予被许可人开发、生产 及商业化HS-20094的全球独占许可（不含中国内地、香港及 ...