Core Viewpoint - The overall market in Q2 2025 experienced a turbulent yet limited increase, influenced by ongoing tariff impacts and structural differentiation across sectors [5][6][30]. Group 1: Market Performance and Economic Outlook - The market showed structural differentiation, with banks and dividend assets performing well, while some cyclical industries struggled [5][6]. - The macroeconomic outlook remains optimistic, but caution is advised at the micro level regarding individual stocks [5][6]. - The impact of tariffs on the long-term fundamentals needs to be validated with new financial data [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Portfolio Management - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a robust portfolio, with a preference for high alpha and low valuation stocks, continuing to buy undervalued assets [5][9]. - The portfolio has seen minor adjustments, with a stable overall position and a focus on quality assets with long-term growth potential [9][20]. - The strategy emphasizes diversification to mitigate risks associated with macroeconomic sensitivity, particularly in cyclical sectors [20][34]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The white liquor industry faced significant concerns due to government policies against waste, but high-end liquor demand remains stable due to its limited government use [8][9]. - The technology and innovation sectors are expected to benefit from supportive policies and domestic growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries [20][21]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is showing signs of recovery and potential for long-term growth, driven by overseas collaborations [20][21]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Expectations - The market is expected to remain cautious in the short term due to external trade pressures, but domestic policies are anticipated to provide support [30][33]. - The focus will be on sectors with inherent growth potential, such as technology and consumer upgrades, while monitoring macroeconomic policies and liquidity changes [21][22][33]. - The overall investment sentiment is improving, with a notable recovery in excess returns for public funds, indicating a potential for better performance in the coming quarters [30][33].

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $55 billion semiconductor manufacturing center by SanDisk in Flint, Michigan, is attributed to "national economic turmoil" as confirmed by the state's governor Gretchen Whitmer [3][4]. Group 1: Project Details - SanDisk had planned to invest in a super factory located in Genesee County, covering approximately 1,300 acres, with $260 million of taxpayer funds already allocated for preliminary development [5]. - The project was considered one of the best semiconductor construction sites in the nation during its years of preparation [6]. - The investment was expected to create around 12,000 construction jobs and up to 6,000 permanent jobs, significantly impacting the local economy [8]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The Biden administration's influx of federal funds into advanced manufacturing, including semiconductor companies, had initially supported the project [9]. - In contrast, the Trump administration, which took office in January 2025, has committed to reviewing and potentially halting certain expenditures, raising concerns about the economic stability in Michigan [10]. - Whitmer indicated that the uncertainty under Trump's administration, including threats of higher tariffs, contributed to SanDisk's decision to abandon the investment [11][12]. Group 3: Reactions and Future Implications - SanDisk has not publicly commented on the cancellation, as the company is in a "quiet period" before its investor earnings report [13]. - Matt Hall, the Speaker of the Michigan House, countered the narrative blaming Trump or national economic trends, arguing that tariffs are crucial for encouraging domestic investment [13]. - Local business leaders in Genesee County expressed strong support for the project, viewing it as a rare opportunity to create thousands of local jobs after years of economic decline [15].

泰国财政部长：在与美方的会谈中提出了额外的建议。相信修订版提案将会达到目标，让美国满意。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):泰国财政部表示，考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税。 ...

巴西总统卢拉：特朗普关于关税的信函是不可接受的勒索行为。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：持续10%的关税可能导致今年通胀率上升0.75%至1%。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：关税将在短期内推高通胀；如果没有关税影响，通胀将接近美联储2%的目标。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：通胀上行风险有限，预计关税影响将在明年逐渐消退。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates for some time due to the inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, necessitating a tight monetary policy to control inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%, indicating a labor market that is "stable and close to full employment" [1]. - Inflation is currently above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2%, facing upward pressure from tariffs [1]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to show a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the PCE price index for June, with the core PCE index rising by 2.8%, higher than May's levels [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December of the previous year [2]. - Federal Reserve policymakers are reluctant to resume rate cuts unless they are certain that tariffs will only lead to one-time price adjustments rather than sustained inflation [2]. Group 3: Future Implications - There are indications that trade policies will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, with expectations of further price increases later in the year [2]. - The potential vacancy on the Federal Reserve board, due to the expiration of a term in January, may lead to changes in policy direction, especially with the upcoming end of Powell's term in May [2].

智通财经APP获悉，周四，三大指数上涨，纳指与标普500再创新高。英伟达亦创新高且市值突破4.2万 亿美元。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨229.71点，涨幅为0.52%，报44484.49点；纳指涨153.78点，涨幅为0.74%， 报20884.27点；标普500指数涨33.68点，涨幅为0.54%，报6297.38点。英伟达(NVDA.US)涨近1%，收盘 市值超4.2万亿美元，再创新高。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.2%，理想汽车(LI.US)涨6.6%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨288.65点，涨幅1.20%，报24365.75点；英国富时100指数涨47.06点，涨幅 0.53%，报8973.61点；法国CAC40指数涨99.41点，涨幅1.29%，报7821.50点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 78.48点，涨幅1.48%，报5376.55点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨89.36点，涨幅0.64%，报13997.56点；意大利 富时MIB指数涨373.48点，涨幅0.94%，报40136.00点。 【亚太股市】日经225指数涨0.6%，韩国KOSPI指数涨0.19%，印尼综合指数涨1.32%。 【外汇】衡 ...

美联储的利率决断：在通胀与增长之间走钢丝 美联储内部对于货币政策的走向也存在明显分歧。6月会议纪要显示，美联储内部对降息的意见并不统一。特朗普任命的两位官员——美联储理事沃勒和鲍 曼均表示支持7月降息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，这位曾经的"鸽派"代表，如今也立场动摇，他坦言："最新一轮关税措施可能会引发新的通胀担忧，这可 能迫使美联储在获得更明确的信息前维持观望态度。"他同时警告，反复无常的政策给价格走势带来了不确定性。 美联储面临的挑战远不止经济数据本身。特朗普公开批评美联储利率"至少偏高3个百分点"，并声称利率每高一个百分点，每年就会给美国增加3600亿美元 的再融资成本。更令人担忧的是，特朗普甚至曾暗示可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他随后否认了这一计划。财政部长贝森特在回应鲍威尔可能辞职的传 闻时表示："若前美联储主席继续留任理事会，对市场而言可能会非常混乱。"这番话被解读为对鲍威尔职位的隐晦施压，美联储的独立性正面临严峻考验。 在总统公开施压、高层人事动荡的阴影下，市场担忧政治因素可能进一步干扰美联储的政策判断。 这出"悬念剧"的导火索是7月17日发布的美联储《褐皮书》（Beige Book）。这份被誉 ...