长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 股指注意回调风险，债市 或震荡运行 2026-01-05 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：上证指数涨0.09%，收报3968.84点，从全年来看，上证指数涨幅为18.41%。 p 核心观点：12月制造业PMI回升至50.1%，不仅时隔8个月重回荣枯线上，也明显高于彭博和路透 49.2%的一致预期。12月制造业PMI回升，在结构层面则具备较强的确定性，而在总量层面则面临着 不确定性。市场主线轮动较快，股指或震荡运行，关注回调风险。后续走势需密切关注量能变化：若成 交量能维持在目前较高水平，指数在充分消化浮筹后，仍有望继续向上拓展空间；反之，若量能出现显 著萎缩，则需警惕短期回调风险。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指数或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷 ...

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 年末地产销售小幅探涨 ——每周高频跟踪 20251220 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅继续扩大。前期运力持续释放，煤炭产业链各环节 库存持续走高，叠加大型煤企外购价格大幅下调，引发中小煤矿、贸易商跟 风降价出货，煤炭价格持续下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格止跌回涨。主要钢材品种去库节奏维持偏快，建 材、螺纹表观需求小幅回升。 （3）沥青：开工率继续回落。沥青装置开工率环比-0.2pct 至 27.6%，同比- 0.9%。施工节奏继续放缓。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交止跌回涨。12 月 12 日-12 月 18 日，30 城新房成 交面积环比+15.4%，同比-30%，降幅收窄。年末新房销售酝酿冲刺，本周回 升斜率仍不及同期季节性。（2）二手房成交季节性上行。二手房成交面积环 比+5.3%，同比-25%，较前周开始改善，总体符合季节性、与 2023 年节奏相 近。 消费相关：12 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-24% 1、汽车：12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 76.4 万辆，同比-24%，环比 +2%。 2、原油：价格继续下跌。市场预期俄乌局势或有缓和、俄原油供应可能放 ...

一、总览：总体放缓，价格企稳 12月15日，国家统计局发布11月国民经济运行数据，主要指标延续放缓，并低于市场预期。供给端，全国规上 工业增加值同比增长4.8%（预期5%），服务业生产指数当月同比增长4.2%。需求端，固定资产投资累计同 比-2.6%（预期-2.2%）。其中，基建和制造业累计增速分别为0.1%（预期1.5%）和1.9%（预期1.7%），房地 产投资累计同比-15.9%（预期-15.4%）。社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%（预期2.9%）。 11月我国经济运行结构边际变化，外需保持韧性，内需显著放缓，生产相对稳定。 人民币计价出口金额同比 增长5.7%，较10月大幅回升6.3pct，新兴市场增量订单保持强劲。内需不足压力凸显，投资和社零同比增速均 再创年内新低，与工业增加值增速差再度扩大。 广谱价格初现企稳态势，CPI通胀大幅上行，PPI通胀与房价 微幅下探。 CPI通胀升至0.7%，为2024年3月以来最高值；PPI通胀小幅下行0.1pct至-2.2%；新建与二手住宅均 价环比下跌0.4%和0.7 %，降幅分别较上月略有收缩和持平。 二、结构：外需韧性，内需放缓，生产稳定 消费方面，商品餐饮 ...

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 预期平稳，等待地产年末行情 ——每周高频跟踪 20251213 ❖ 工业高频：生产开工略有改善 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动能 有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 ❖ 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。 ...

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 通胀边际抬升，聚焦会议定调 ——每周高频跟踪 20251206 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面 积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动 能有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。美联储降息预期强化、美元指数走 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report In the third week of November, the scope of construction shutdown in the north accelerated its expansion, showing the characteristics of weak supply and demand for investment products. Both new and second - hand housing transactions followed seasonal trends, with the former showing a slight stabilization. In terms of inflation, food prices changed from rising to falling, and the drag from pork and vegetable prices increased. In the export sector, container shipping prices continued to diverge, with SCFI weakening and CCFI remaining strong. Port transportation volume weakened compared to the previous week, indicating the impact of the off - season. In the investment field, the decline in cement prices continued to widen. The apparent demand for rebar improved and inventory clearance accelerated, mainly due to supply contraction. In the real estate sector, new housing sales recovered seasonally, while second - hand housing sales continued to weaken, and both showed year - on - year negative growth. For the bond market, the impact of fundamental factors on the bond market further weakened under the influence of the off - season. Policy expectations for the current year were not strong, and the market focused on the possibility of "front - loaded efforts" in the next year. [3][33] Summary by Directory Weekly High - Frequency Tracking: Export Cargo Volume Maintains Resilience Inflation - Related: Food Prices Decline Food prices decreased slightly. From November 15th to 22nd, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and vegetable prices decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, both weaker than the previous week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.09% and 0.08% week - on - week respectively, changing from rising to falling. [8] Import and Export - Related: Container Shipping Prices Diverge, SCFI Continues to Weaken The decline of SCFI widened, while CCFI continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 2.6% week - on - week, and SCFI decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The container transportation market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the ocean - going routes showed an adjustment trend. In the North American routes, the growth of transportation demand was weak, and freight rates continued to decline. From November 10th to 16th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 5.4% and 1.1% week - on - week respectively. This week, they increased by 3.1% and 0.4% year - on - year respectively, continuing to weaken compared to the previous week under the influence of the off - season. The increases of BDI and CDFI indexes further expanded. [11] Industry - Related: Most Production Operating Rates Continue to Decline - Coal price increase significantly narrowed. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.26% week - on - week, with a significant narrowing of the increase. - Rebar price increase widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.2% week - on - week. - Asphalt operating rate accelerated its decline. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. - Copper price changed from rising to falling. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Copper and LME Copper both decreased by about 0.9% week - on - week. - The decline of glass futures prices widened. This week, the market trading sentiment was cold, and most manufacturers continued to sell at reduced prices. [13][15][20] Investment - Related: New Housing Sales Slightly Stabilize, Second - Hand Housing Sales Weaken - Cement price decline slightly widened. This week, the weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week. - New housing sales seasonally stabilized. From November 14th to 20th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.936 million square meters, a 22.5% week - on - week increase and a 23% year - on - year decrease. - Second - hand housing sales slightly declined. From last Friday to this Thursday, second - hand housing sales decreased by 3.8% week - on - week and 7.6% year - on - year. [25][27] Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales in Mid - and Early November Continue to Decline - Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early November showed a year - on - year negative growth. From November 1st to 16th, the national retail sales of the passenger car market were 886,000 vehicles, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last November and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last month. - Crude oil price changed from rising to falling. As of November 21st, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 2.8% and 3.4% week - on - week respectively, weaker than the previous week. [28][32]

海关总署：今年10月份，中国货物贸易进出口总值3.7万亿元，其中，进口1.53万亿元，同比增长1.4%，连续5个月保持增长。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):海关总署：今年前10个月，中国货物贸易进出口平稳增长，进出口总值37.31万亿元，同比增长3.6%。其中，对共建“一带一路”国家进出口19.28万亿元，同比增长5.9%，占我国外贸总值的51.7%。民营企业进出口21.28万亿元，同比增长7.2%。 ...

Trade Overview - China's total import and export value of goods trade reached 37310 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36% in the first 10 months [1] - Imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" totaled 19280 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%, accounting for 517% of China's total foreign trade value [1] - Private enterprises' imports and exports reached 21280 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1] Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have increased month-on-month, while international natural gas prices have also risen. As of October 24, the domestic LNG ex-factory price was 4274.00 CNY/ton, up by 257 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.40% month-on-month, but down by 662.00 CNY/ton, a decline of 13.41% year-on-year [2][8] - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China decreased month-on-month in September, but showed a year-on-year increase. The apparent consumption was 35.326 billion cubic meters, down by 1.358 billion cubic meters, a decline of 3.70% month-on-month, but up by 0.483 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.39% year-on-year [17] Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices increased month-on-month, while year-on-year prices decreased. The price as of October 24 was 4274.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.41% [2][8] 2. Supply and Demand - In September, China's natural gas production decreased month-on-month to 596,680 tons, down by 105,710 tons, a decline of 15.05%. The apparent consumption was 35.326 billion cubic meters, down by 1.358 billion cubic meters, a decline of 3.70% month-on-month, but up by 0.483 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.39% year-on-year [16][17] 3. Inventory - As of October 17, U.S. LNG/LPG inventory (excluding propane/propylene) was 203,244 thousand barrels, up by 1,788 thousand barrels, an increase of 0.89% month-on-month, and up by 28,289 thousand barrels, an increase of 16.17% year-on-year. European natural gas inventory as of October 22 was 94.564 billion kWh, up by 11.76 billion kWh, an increase of 1.26% month-on-month, but down by 14.752 billion kWh, a decline of 13.50% year-on-year [3][21][25] 4. Imports and Exports - In September, European natural gas imports totaled 193,718.84 million cubic meters, down by 4,882.90 million cubic meters, a decline of 2.46% month-on-month, but up by 60,915.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 45.87% year-on-year. Imports from Russia decreased significantly, totaling 10,110.10 million cubic meters, down by 2,352.70 million cubic meters, a decline of 18.88% month-on-month, and down by 8,991.50 million cubic meters, a decline of 47.07% year-on-year [26][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed stable growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. The service and industrial sectors played important roles, and consumption, investment, and net exports all contributed to economic growth [3]. - Industrial production was stable, and the service industry was on an upward trend, strongly supporting economic growth. Consumption potential continued to be released, and investment played a key role in promoting traditional industrial transformation and upgrading. Net exports maintained stable growth [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q3, GDP was 354,500 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [3]. - The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the first three quarters were 58,061 billion yuan, 364,020 billion yuan, and 592,955 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%, and contributions to economic growth of 4.7%, 34.6%, and 60.7% [3]. Industry - In the first three quarters, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.8 percentage points. Manufacturing added value grew by 6.5%, higher than the industrial growth rate. In Q3, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.7 percentage points [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises in Q3 2025 was 74.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 and down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Service - In the first three quarters, service industry added value was 592,955 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 58.4% of GDP, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.1 percentage points [4]. - In Q3, service industry added value was 202,641 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 57.2% of GDP, contributing 61.8% to national economic growth, and driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points [4]. Consumption - Consumption potential continued to be released. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 53.5%, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points. In Q3, it was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [4]. Investment - Investment played a key role. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of capital formation to economic growth was 17.5%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points. In Q3, it was 18.9%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - In the first three quarters, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving total investment growth by 0.2 percentage points. Internet and related service investment grew by 20.6%, and water transportation investment grew by 12.8% [5]. - From January to September, real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% [5]. Import and Export - Net exports maintained stable growth. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of goods and services net exports to economic growth was 29.0%, driving GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. In Q3, it was 24.5%, driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points [6]. Prices - In the first three quarters, consumer prices were generally stable, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. - PPI was down 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with a decline of 2.9% in Q3, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q2 [6].