2、地产：（1）新房：截至 2 月 27 日（正月十一），30 城新房（滚动 7 天求 和）成交面积 76.96 万平方米，同比+48.1%。（2）二手房：截至 2 月 27 日 （正月十一），二手房成交（滚动 7 天求和）6.13 万平方米，同比+31.5%，也 强于往年同期。 消费相关：节后出行热度继续升温，国际油价微涨 1、出行：复工影响下，29 城地铁客运量环比走高。上周四至本周三，29 城 地铁客运量 232.5 万人次，环比+24.8%。百度迁徙指数看截至 2 月 27 日（正 月十一）出行同比+28.9%仍保持高位。 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 节后投资复工偏快 ——每周高频跟踪 20260228 （1）动力煤：煤价继续上涨。本周工业需求回暖，下游补库意愿回升，非 电行业补库需求释放，电煤消费较节前回升，下游主动补库存。 （2）螺纹钢：价格持稳，库存上行。螺纹钢（HRB400 20mm）现货价格持 稳，春节后螺纹表需低迷、产量低位，库存持续累积。 （3）沥青：开工率低于节前。本周沥青装置开工率环比节前一周-0.3pct 至 21.4%，节后复工偏慢。 2、原油：截至 2 月 27 日，布伦特原 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of January, industrial production remained stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, construction sites gradually shut down, leading to weak performance in the volume and price of investment products [33]. - In terms of inflation, the food price index continued to rise, but the increase in pork prices narrowed month - on - month [33]. - In terms of exports, the demand for ocean routes was weak, and the month - on - month decline in market container shipping prices widened [33]. - In terms of investment, the PMI of the construction industry dropped significantly in January, indicating that construction projects were gradually shutting down and workers were returning home for the Spring Festival. The asphalt production started to decline seasonally, and traditional off - season factors had a dominant impact on the volume and price of investment products before the Spring Festival [33]. - In the real estate sector, new home sales remained relatively low year - on - year, second - hand home sales slowed down slightly but remained at a high level. The listing price in January turned positive month - on - month, indicating an early start of the "spring market" with signs of stabilization in both volume and price. Attention should be paid to the rebound slope of trading volume and the sustainability of price recovery after the Spring Festival [33]. - For the bond market, with the data "blank period" in February and the approaching Spring Festival, the suppression of pre - holiday data on bond market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex - factory price in the PMI continued to rise and returned to the expansion range. The month - on - month recovery of PPI in January is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of structural price improvement on bond market sentiment. On the other hand, due to the Spring Festival date shift, the year - on - year CPI reading may decline; regulatory authorities advocate weakening the scale of credit issuance, so the "good start" of credit in January may be mediocre; the second - hand home sales have started to slow down seasonally recently, and the impact of real estate fundamental factors is expected to decrease compared with January. The short - term impact of fundamentals on bond market expectations is reduced, and attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of pre - holiday allocation funds [33]. Summary by Directory I. Weekly High - Frequency Tracking: Economic Momentum Gradually Cools Down Before the Festival (1) Inflation - related: Food Price Increase Narrows - The increase in pork prices narrowed. From January 24th to January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork in China increased by 0.89% week - on - week, with a narrowing increase [8]. - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.38% and 0.45% week - on - week respectively, with narrowing increases [8]. (2) Import and Export - related: Container Shipping Prices Accelerate Weakening - The comprehensive container shipping index continued to weaken. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 9.7% week - on - week, with an expanding decline [11]. - From January 19th to January 25th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 4.35% and 1.70% respectively compared with the previous week before the festival, and increased by 9.6% and 6.9% year - on - year respectively [11]. - The increases of the BDI and CDFI indexes expanded. The pre - holiday transportation demand in the international dry bulk shipping market improved, and the market sentiment was positive. The Far - East dry bulk freight index rose [11]. (3) Industry - related: Pre - holiday Production Continues to Slow Down - Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.2% week - on - week, compared with a 1.7% decrease the previous week [15]. - The price of rebar slightly declined. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, compared with a 0.69% decrease the previous week [15]. - The asphalt production rate accelerated its decline. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, and increased by 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - Copper prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market increased by 1.9% week - on - week [18]. - The glass futures stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of glass remained stable, and the overall trading situation was slightly weaker than before. The downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Affected by weather factors, there were differences in production and sales between regions, and the industry inventory increased slightly [18]. (4) Investment - related: Second - hand Home Sales Decline Slightly - The decline in cement prices widened. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week, with an expanding decline [22]. - New home sales increased slightly. From January 23rd to January 29th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.328 million square meters, an increase of 14.1% week - on - week and 94% year - on - year. The high year - on - year increase was due to the Spring Festival date shift, and there was a slight end - of - month rush in terms of the week - on - week comparison [23]. - Second - hand home sales cooled down. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand homes decreased by 9.4% week - on - week, ending the continuous upward trend. However, it remained at a high level overall. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, second - hand home sales entered a seasonally low stage. In terms of price, the monthly listing price index of second - hand homes increased by 0.1% month - on - month in January, the first positive increase since January 2025. Attention should be paid to the volume and price performance after the Spring Festival [23]. (5) Consumption: Crude Oil Prices Rise Strongly - The increase in oil prices expanded. As of January 30th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 7.3% and 6.8% respectively week - on - week, with an expanding increase. Tensions in the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may lead to a decrease in crude oil production. Coupled with the reduction of US crude oil inventories and the decline of the US dollar index, oil prices were jointly pushed up [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of January, the decline in food prices widened, and the macro - positive factors were basically digested. The upward trends of commodity futures and spot prices narrowed. - In terms of inflation, the decline in the food price index widened, and the supporting effect of pork on the index narrowed. - In terms of exports, container shipping demand remained stable. Except for the continued increase in freight rates on the North American route, other routes showed corrections. - In terms of investment, while the prices of rebar and coal continued to rise slightly month - on - month, the decline in cement prices continued to expand, and asphalt production remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The release of incremental infrastructure demand was still mild. - In terms of real estate, due to the impact of new policies, the transactions of new and second - hand houses increased month - on - month. - For the bond market, the PMI and import - export data in December exceeded expectations, showing a year - end data sprint characteristic. The Q4 economic data to be released on the 19th is expected to be strong, with GDP likely to reach around 5%. There may be a tail - end acceleration in production in December. - The macro - policy positives around the New Year's Day holiday have been basically digested, and with stricter financing supervision, the equity and commodity markets cooled this week. Looking ahead, during the key "good start" period in January, production and investment are expected to continue to gain momentum, and the PMI at the end of the month may still rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of strong data on market expectations [4][37]. Summary According to the Directory Inflation - related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (January 10 - 16), the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.65% and 0.73% month - on - month respectively, with the decline expanding. - Pork prices rose moderately, with the national average wholesale price of pork increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. Fruit prices rebounded from a decline, rising by 0.7% [4][10][37]. Import - export related - Container shipping prices showed a split trend, with the CCFI index rising by 1.3% month - on - month and the SCFI index falling by 4.5% month - on - month. In response to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the cargo volume in the export container shipping market increased slightly, and the freight rates of different routes showed different trends. - Bulk shipping weakened. The BDI and CDFI indices both saw an expansion in their declines [4][15][37]. Industry - related - Coal prices continued to rise. Although the daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased after reaching a peak, the heating and replenishment demand increased, and the rigid demand for procurement in the building materials and chemical industries provided support. - The increase in rebar prices slightly expanded. Supported by phased replenishment and infrastructure project rush - work, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but the terminal demand has not substantially recovered. - The asphalt production rate increased month - on - month, but there were regional differences in demand. - The increase in copper prices narrowed. The continued rise was supported by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, but the increase was restricted due to factors such as the Fed's statement and volatile oil prices. - The glass futures market turned from rising to falling, and the spot inventory decreased [16][18][22]. Investment - related - The decline in cement prices expanded, with the cement price index decreasing by 1.20% week - on - week on average. The supply and demand in the national cement market were both weak, with regional differences. - The transactions of new and second - hand houses showed a slight recovery. From January 9 - 15, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 26% month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand houses increased by 17.3% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 13.4% [5][25][28]. Consumption - related - In the first week of January, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the passenger car market was 328,000 units, with a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 42%. - Oil prices maintained a moderate increase. As of January 16, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.25% and 0.5% respectively month - on - month, with the increase narrowing [3][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's main line rotates rapidly, and stock index futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction. The follow - up trend needs to closely monitor the change in trading volume. If the trading volume remains at the current relatively high level, the index is still expected to continue to expand upward after fully digesting floating chips; otherwise, if the volume significantly shrinks, short - term correction risk should be vigilant. The bond market sentiment has been frustrated, and the future sustainability of the rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December remains to be observed. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the pressure and necessity for stable growth are still relatively large, and it is highly likely that policies will be implemented at the beginning of the year to support the economy [9][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Stock index trend review: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 3968.84 points. For the whole year, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 18.41% [9] - Core view: The manufacturing PMI in December rebounded to 50.1%, returning above the boom - bust line after 8 months and significantly higher than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December has strong certainty at the structural level but faces uncertainty at the aggregate level. The market's main line rotates rapidly, and stock index futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [9] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate [9] - Strategy outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [9] Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03% [11] - Core view: The composite PMI, manufacturing PMI, and non - manufacturing PMI are all above the boom - bust line of 50, and the bond market sentiment has been frustrated. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations, and its future sustainability remains to be observed. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the pressure and necessity for stable growth are still relatively large. Whether it is the remaining fiscal resources at the end of the year or the room for monetary easing, it indicates that it is highly likely that policies will be implemented at the beginning of the year to support the economy. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw, whether the central bank's scale of treasury bond trading will further expand, and the implementation rhythm of monetary policies after the new year [11] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [11] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation [11] Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning above the boom - bust line after 8 months [18] - It was significantly stronger than the seasonal trend. In previous Decembers, the manufacturing PMI decreased by an average of 0.3 pct compared with November, while it increased by 0.9 pct this month [18] - The PMI of high - tech manufacturing industries rebounded significantly by 2.4 pct to 52.5%, indicating a good growth trend in the industry [18] - Large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement. Although the PMI of small enterprises declined, large and medium - sized enterprises' PMIs both rebounded significantly [18] CPI - In November, the year - on - year increase in CPI strengthened, and the month - on - month PPI remained positive, which was the result of the combined effects of seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution" [21] - It is worth noting that the year - on - year CPI has fluctuated below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and the year - on - year PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating that domestic demand is still relatively weak [21] - At the end of the year and during the Spring Festival, driven by seasonal effects and rising gold prices, the year - on - year CPI is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [21] - Since November 2024, the year - on - year base of PPI has entered a downward range again. Affected by low - base effects and the orderly progress of "anti - involution", the year - on - year PPI is also expected to rebound [21] Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $330.35 billion, imports were $218.67 billion, and the trade surplus was $111.68 billion [23] - In terms of representative export commodities, labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products drove the overall export in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01% respectively, with the driving rates increasing by 1.03 pp, 5.06 pp, and 1.55 pp respectively compared with the previous month [23] - The strengthening of exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America drove the year - on - year increase in exports this month, showing a relatively strong performance. Since November 9th, the year - on - year growth rates of global and US imports and China's container bookings to the US have continued to decline week by week, indicating a high probability of pressure on exports in December [24] Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service industry production index dropped to 4.2%. The production - end data has declined for two consecutive months [25] - There are two reasons for the weakening of industrial added value. First, "anti - involution" has begun to suppress the output of key industries. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the automobile industry dropped by 4.9 pct to 11.9%, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the steel industry dropped by 0.5 pct to 0.9%, and the chemical industry dropped by 0.4 pct to 6.7%. In terms of microscopic output, the year - on - year output of automobiles, ethylene, and steel also weakened. Second, after the policy took effect on September 24th last year, the production increase established a relatively high base. From the perspective of the two - year compound growth rate, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in November was basically the same as that in October [28] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped by 2.6%. It is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in November was - 11.1%, a slight increase compared with October [31] - By type, the year - on - year growth rate of private investment rebounded to - 12.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of public investment continued to drop to - 8.9% [31] - By expenditure direction, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rates of construction and installation projects/equipment and tool purchases in November dropped to - 16.1% and 6.3% respectively, and the year - on - year growth rate of other expenses rebounded slightly to - 13.8% [31] - By the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure and real estate investment are still declining at a low level, but manufacturing investment has a slight rebound [31] Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 1.3%, lower than market expectations and the weakest since 2023 [34] - There are three factors for the weakening of social retail sales in November. First, after the weakening of national subsidy funds, the weakening of durable - goods consumption is the main drag. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption dropped to - 10%, and among them, automobiles and home appliances cumulatively dragged down the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in that month by 1.2 pct. Second, the overall weak performance of the "Double Eleven" sales also dragged down the social retail sales for the whole month. In November, the online retail sales of physical goods dropped by 3.3 pct to 1.5%, and the two - year compound year - on - year growth rate turned negative for the first time this year. Third, the consumption in the post - real - estate cycle continued to be weak. Restricted by the long - term weak real - estate sales, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales of building materials and furniture both dropped and turned negative [34] Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags [37] - Bills continued to boost the volume, and the year - on - year increase in medium - and long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to be less than the previous year [37] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained flat at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber remained flat at 6.3% [37] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined. Attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization in the future [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the third week of December, year - end food prices continued to rise, the operating rate continued to decline, and real estate sales started the year - end sprint, but the slope was significantly lower than that of last year. In terms of inflation, the increase in the food price index narrowed, and the decline in pork prices widened. In terms of exports, container shipping prices continued a slight increase, mainly boosted by the year - end signing season. In terms of investment, cement prices increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to rising demand and price hikes in the central and southern regions, while demand in other regions remained weak. The apparent demand for building materials and rebar improved slightly. In the real estate sector, both new and second - hand housing sales increased month - on - month, and the year - end sprint slope may be similar to the rhythm of 2023. For the bond market, the economic data in November showed a continued decline in momentum, but the bond market was insensitive. There may be certain expectations for the "good start" in the first quarter of next year. In the short term, potential disturbances to the bond market sentiment such as the new regulations on fund fees still exist, but as the cross - year allocation window approaches, some allocation funds have begun to enter the market gradually. Looking forward to 2026, fiscal and macro - policies may continue to be implemented earlier, and the probability of a "good start" in data is relatively high, which may jointly suppress sentiment. Especially with the base adjustment in 2026, the inflation performance in the first quarter may further affect expectations and requires careful observation [3][37]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related: Food price increases narrowed - This week, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products increased by 0.8% and 1.0% week - on - week respectively, with the increase lower than last week. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and the decline widened; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, turning from an increase to a decrease; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits increased by 1.7% week - on - week, and the increase narrowed [6][7]. Import and Export - related: Container shipping prices continued a slight increase - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 3.1% week - on - week. Affected by the year - end signing season, the spot booking prices on the North American routes continued to rise, and the freight rates on the West and East US routes increased by 11.9% and 7.3% respectively compared with last week. From December 8th to December 14th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively, continuing to decline compared with the previous week. The decline of the BDI and CDFI indices widened [8][11]. Industry - related: The operating rate generally declined - The decline of coal prices continued to expand. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 5.5% week - on - week. The rebar price stopped falling and rebounded, with the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increasing by 0.3% week - on - week. The asphalt operating rate continued to decline, with the asphalt plant operating rate decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 27.6% week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. The increase of international copper prices converged, and the glass price continued to fall [16][20]. Investment - related: New home sales increased slightly - Cement prices continued a slight increase. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week, rising for three consecutive weeks. The transaction area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities stopped falling and rebounded, with a week - on - week increase of 15.4% from December 12th to December 18th. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 5.3% week - on - week, showing a seasonal upward trend [25][28]. Consumption: Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early December decreased by 24% year - on - year - From December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of December 19th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.1% and 1.6% week - on - week respectively, continuing to fall [31].

Overview - The overall economic performance in November shows a slowdown, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Industrial value added increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% [1] - External demand remains resilient, but internal demand has significantly weakened, leading to a widening gap between industrial value added growth and investment and retail sales growth [1] - Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, while producer price index (PPI) inflation slightly declined to -2.2% [1] Structure - Consumer spending showed weakness, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, retail sales of automobiles and home appliances saw significant declines of 8.3% and 19.4%, respectively [2] - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, with infrastructure investment down 11.9% and real estate investment plummeting by 30.3%. The decline in real estate is attributed to weak sales and financing pressures [3] - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, while imports rose by 1.9%. The growth in exports to emerging markets remains strong despite challenges in the U.S. market [4] Supply - Industrial production remained stable, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial value added. High-tech industries saw a notable growth of 8.4% [5] - CPI inflation increased significantly due to seasonal factors, particularly in fresh vegetables, while PPI inflation showed a slight decline. The performance of various sectors varied, with some industries experiencing price increases while others faced declines [5] Conclusion - The economic growth rate for the year is expected to be around 5%, with a focus on sustainable policy adjustments to enhance economic recovery. The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide a stable foundation for economic growth [6]

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Stable Expectations, Awaiting the Year - End Real Estate Market - Weekly High - Frequency Tracking 20251213" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the second week of December, the market was mainly affected by the off - season supply - demand fundamentals, with most industrial product prices falling and downstream demand release being moderately weak. Food prices continued to rise, and the decline in pork prices narrowed. Container shipping prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the year - end contract - signing season. Cement prices rose due to cost support and manufacturers' initiatives, but the demand support for price increases was limited. The apparent demand for building materials and rebar continued to decline. The new and second - hand housing markets in the real estate sector continued to weaken, and attention should be paid to the year - end sprint market [4][37]. - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone that the macro - policy intensity in 2026 may be basically stable, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which meets market expectations. However, the conference also paid high attention to price recovery, which may cause some disturbances to the downward shift of the nominal interest rate center. Looking ahead, the November economic data will be released next week. From the PMI performance, it is expected that the production side will recover to some extent, but investment and consumption still face high bases, and domestic demand may still be lower than exports, similar to the situation in October. Looking forward to 2026, the conference clearly required investment to "stop falling and stabilize", fiscal policy may be front - loaded, and policies may be somewhat tilted towards investment. During the data vacuum period from January to February, attention can be focused on the high - frequency performance of physical work volume [4][37]. Summary of Each Section 1. Inflation - related - Food prices continued to rise. From December 8th to 12th, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the vegetable price increased by 0.7% week - on - week, with the growth momentum narrowing. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.0% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively, with the upward trend slowing down [10]. 2. Import and Export - related - The CCFI and SCFI indices stopped falling and rebounded. The CCFI index increased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the SCFI increased by 7.8% week - on - week. The overall transportation demand was stable this week, and the spot freight rates of some major ocean routes increased due to the year - end contract - signing season. The North American route was affected by the year - end market freight rate increase, but the demand did not improve significantly. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the Western and Eastern United States increased by 14.8% and 14.6% week - on - week respectively [12]. - From December 1st to 7th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 1.8% and 7.3% week - on - week respectively, both lower than the previous week. - The BDI and CDFI indices corrected. The international dry - bulk shipping market cooled down, the daily charter rates of large and medium - sized ships dropped significantly, and the Far - East dry - bulk charter rate index continued to decline from its high level. The quarterly volume - rushing of major miners was coming to an end, and the market trading activity decreased [12]. 3. Industry - related - The decline in coal prices continued to widen. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 4.5% week - on - week. Affected by warm weather, the demand for heating electricity in coastal areas increased, but the stable supply of long - term contract coal kept the power plant inventory stable. During the peak winter period, temporary navigation closures led to blocked circulation, a significant increase in the volume of goods gathered at the port, and the rising inventory suppressed coal prices [19]. - The price of rebar decreased slightly. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.9% week - on - week. The inventory of major steel products decreased by 3.71% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week. The destocking pace was basically the same as last week and remained relatively fast. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.8% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.5% week - on - week, accelerating the weakening in the off - season [19]. - The asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. This week, the asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%, indicating a marginal weakening of infrastructure demand [19]. - Copper prices continued to rise. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.9% and 2.7% week - on - week respectively. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market expected further easing next year, with the weakening US dollar supporting price increases. It is the domestic consumption off - season, spot transactions were basically stable, and downstream buyers were more cautious about high prices, with limited incremental replenishment demand [20]. - The decline in glass prices widened. The spot market trading was okay, with some areas continuing to destock and a few slightly increasing inventory. Market sentiment weakened compared with the previous week, most downstream enterprises made rigid - demand purchases, the whole market continued to destock, but there was still overall shipment pressure [20]. 4. Investment - related - The increase in cement prices slightly expanded. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week. As the weather turned cold, demand contracted. Price increases in North China were not fully implemented. Construction in Northeast China stopped. Driven by costs, prices in East China and other regions continued to rise, with the overall price tending to stabilize and slightly increase. In Central South China, demand was weak, and prices rebounded after multiple price - pushing attempts [21][25]. - The decline in the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities widened. From December 5th to 11th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 196.5 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 33%. Attention should be paid to the year - end sprint effect in the middle and late December [29]. - The transaction volume of second - hand houses decreased slightly and steadily. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 0.7% week - on - week, with a narrowing decline. It was better than the seasonal performance in 2023 - 2024, and the year - on - year decrease for the single week was 33%, mainly due to the high base last year [29]. 5. Consumption - related - In the first week of December, passenger car retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year and continued to weaken month - on - month. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the national passenger car market retail sales were 297,000 vehicles, a 32% decrease compared with the same period last December and an 8% decrease compared with the same period last month. The demand for trade - in accelerated release in December last year, resulting in a high base, and the subsidy intensity in some areas decreased, leading to the low year - on - year retail sales at the beginning of December [31]. - Crude oil prices weakened. As of December 12th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 4.1% and 4.4% week - on - week respectively, turning from rising to falling. The main reason was that the market expected an increase in crude oil supply from non - OPEC+ countries next year, causing total crude oil supply to exceed demand [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the first week of December, the industrial production rhythm slightly accelerated. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the prices of risk assets. The improvement in the supply and demand of domestic investment products was limited. In terms of inflation, the increase in vegetable prices widened, and food prices accelerated their upward trend. In terms of exports, container shipping prices weakened, but the demand for coal transportation in the Pacific market strengthened, corresponding to the supplement of imported coal for winter storage. In terms of investment, supported by the cost side such as coal, cement prices stabilized. The apparent demand for steel weakened, and inventory destocking accelerated, indicating a relatively obvious production contraction. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses both seasonally slowed down at the beginning of the month. For the bond market, the fundamental supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. The positive signals in the PMI price were worth continuous tracking. Next week, the focus should be on the fiscal and monetary statements of important meetings [3][33]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Inflation - related: Food price increases widened - Food prices accelerated their upward trend. From December 1st to 5th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, with the decline widening again. Vegetable prices increased by 2.3% week - on - week, with the increase continuing to expand. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.5% and 1.7% week - on - week respectively [7]. 2. Import and export - related: Container shipping prices marginally weakened - The CCFI and SCFI indices both declined further. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The transportation demand on the European route was basically stable, with freight rates slightly declining, and the freight rates on the Mediterranean route increased by about 3%. The demand on the North American route grew weakly, with poor supply - demand balance. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East coasts of the United States decreased by 5% and 4.7% respectively. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 24th to 30th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.3% and increased by 8.4% week - on - week respectively. The monthly average year - on - year growth rates in November were + 10.2% and + 5.7% respectively, stronger than the performance in October. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated their rise. This week, the demand for coal transportation from Indonesia in the Panamax market slightly decreased, with reduced trading activity and slightly adjusted freight rates. However, the freight rates in the Pacific market for Capesize vessels soared, with the daily rent reaching a new high since April 2024. Australian miners continued to make inquiries, and the transportation demand for the loading period in mid - to - late December was high, and the long - distance ore routes followed the upward trend [9]. 3. Industry - related: Production and operation slightly improved - Coal price decline widened. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.0% week - on - week, with the decline widening. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of power plants in inland provinces remained weak year - on - year. Terminal enterprises mainly fulfilled long - term coal contracts and had low acceptance of high - priced market coal. The daily consumption of coastal power plants slightly decreased. In terms of price, some mining areas completed their production targets at the end of the month and compressed production capacity. Coupled with environmental protection and safety inspections, the growth of domestic coal production was limited, and the coal prices at the origin showed a strong trend. However, the advantage of imported coal became apparent, effectively making up for the supply gap, and the overall port coal prices remained stable. - The increase in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.1% week - on - week, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of major steel products decreased by 2.9% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week, with the destocking rhythm continuing to accelerate. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, and that for rebar decreased by 4.6% week - on - week, with the weakening accelerating, indicating that the supply contraction was relatively greater. - The asphalt operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 0.1 percentage points week - on - week to 27.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The rush - work demand gradually decreased, and the asphalt shipment volume was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. - The increase in copper prices widened. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.5% and 4.3% week - on - week respectively. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased, the US dollar index weakened, and the prominent supply - demand gap pattern promoted the accelerated rise of copper prices. - The glass futures price decreased week - on - week. The spot production and sales of glass performed well, the industry inventory was rapidly destocked. Affected by the market production contraction, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was boosted, the shipment speed in many places accelerated, the market sentiment of price support strengthened, and the demand side mainly replenished inventory appropriately, with the quoted prices rising and falling [16][21]. 4. Investment - related: Sales seasonally declined at the beginning of the month - Cement prices stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, showing signs of stabilization. The continuously strong coal prices supported the production cost, but it was the traditional off - season in the north, and the demand in the south was low due to inventory pressure. It was difficult for manufacturers to fully implement price increases, and the overall cement prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. - New - house transactions slightly declined at the beginning of the month. From November 28th to December 4th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 2.118 million square meters, a 0.6% decrease week - on - week and a 36% decrease year - on - year, with the decline continuing to widen. The sales momentum of new houses at the beginning of the month declined. - Second - hand house transactions continued to weaken. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 2.7% week - on - week and 39.6% year - on - year, with the week - on - week decline widening, mainly due to the high - base effect [24][25]. 5. Consumption: The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.263 million vehicles, a 7% decrease compared with the same period last year and a 1% increase compared with the previous month. - Crude oil prices continued to rise. As of December 5th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.9% and 2.6% week - on - week respectively, with the increase of the latter widening. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar index, the OPEC +'s policy of suspending production increases, and the failure to reach an agreement in the US - Russia meeting boosted oil prices [27].