再看30分钟K线，它将一天交易时间细分，能更及时捕捉股价变化，同样用指数平滑法算出预测值，若 实际值小于预测值，说明短期股价表现弱于预期，可能是调整信号，意味着大盘短期可能要调整。 （原标题：和讯投顾王偲安：通过上证指数的日K线和30分钟K线，对大盘后续走势清晰预判） 和讯投顾王偲安表示，若还在为摸不透大盘走势发愁，今天分享一个实用方法助你精准把握大盘动向。 通过上证指数的日K线和30分钟K线，结合指数平滑法，可对大盘后续走势清晰预判。指数平滑法简单 来说，就是从复杂历史数据中找股价最可能走向的方法，它按时间远近给过去数据赋予不同权重，越新 的数据权重越大，以此预测未来趋势。 先看日K线，它反映一天股价综合情况，用指数平滑法可算出当日预测值，若当日实际值大于预测值， 说明当天股价表现强于模型预期，是偏积极信号，意味着大盘短期有向上冲的动力。 当两者结合，若日线实际值大于预测值，而30分钟实际值小于预测值，就形成矛盾信号，日线显示整体 趋势向上，30分钟短期数据却暗示有调整需求，此时大盘很可能进入短期调整阶段；反之，若日线实际 值小于预测值，30分钟实际值大于预测值，则是短期有向上动力但长期趋势偏弱，大盘后续可 ...

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（5月12日至5月16日）A 股市场呈现明显分化态势，大盘蓝筹表现突出，中小盘及科 创板小幅承压。上证 50 和沪深 300 分别上涨 1.22% 和 1.12%，反映出低估值蓝筹股的防御性优势，而 创业板 50 更是上涨达2.00% ，显示大盘成长板块亦受资金青睐。科创 50 逆势下跌 1.10%，或与部分半 导体企业业绩不及预期及资金分流至其他科技赛道有关。全周上证指数上涨0.76%，深证指数上涨 0.52%，创业板指上涨1.38%。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均涨幅0.66%。板块方面，65%板块获得正收益，美容护理、非银金融、汽 车相对表现良好，分别上涨3.08%、2.49%、2.40%，而传媒、国防军工、计算机则明显走弱，分别下跌 0.77%、1.18%、1.26%。 债券方面，中美国债期货价格同向波动，货币环境预期相对平稳。 商品方面，市场呈现 "能源稳、金属强、贵金属弱、农产品分化" 的特征，需关注地缘政治及宏观政策 对供需平衡的影响。 贵金属表现疲弱，COMEX黄金下跌2.99%，美联储降息预期延后及美元走强压制避险需求，而白银仅 微跌0.38%，或与其产 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market maintained a steady upward trend this week, with major indices experiencing a slight increase of around 1% [1] - All three major indices filled the gap from April 7, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][13] - The weekly K-line has formed an upward channel, suggesting a favorable market trajectory [1][13] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3417.31 points on Wednesday but closed at 3367.46 points on Friday, resulting in a weekly increase of 0.76% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index peaked at 10418.44 points on Wednesday, closing at 10179.6 points on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.52% [4] - The ChiNext Index hit a high of 2103.37 points on Wednesday, closing at 2039.45 points on Friday, marking a weekly increase of 1.38% [4] Sector Performance - The North Exchange (北交所) showed the strongest performance, with the North 50 Index rising by 3.13% to close at 1422.43 points, setting a new historical high [8] - Blue-chip stocks, particularly in the financial sector, led the market, with banks, insurance, and brokerage firms showing significant gains [9] - The Securities Company Index increased by 2.1%, while the Banking Index rose by 1.43%, both achieving historical highs during the week [11] Emerging Trends - The New Energy sector showed signs of recovery, with the CS Battery Index rising by 1.63% and indices related to new energy vehicles and energy storage increasing by over 3% [13] - The overall market remains robust, with all three major indices filling the April 7 gap and maintaining a strong upward trend since the beginning of the month [13]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 2023 13F filing revealed a complete exit from Citigroup (14.63 million shares) and Nu Holdings, along with a reduction in Bank of America holdings (48.66 million shares) while maintaining its Apple position (300 million shares) unchanged [1] - The company significantly increased its stake in Constellation Brands by 6.38 million shares, representing a 113.5% increase, and also added 760,000 shares in Occidental Petroleum and 860,000 shares in Pool Corp [1] - Notably, Berkshire did not initiate any new positions in Q1 2023, raising concerns among market analysts regarding its investment strategy [1] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, Berkshire's cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasury bills increased from $212.59 billion at the end of 2024 to $219.90 billion, representing an increase in the cash holding ratio from 42.77% to 44.29% of its insurance investment portfolio [3] - Market analysts, including Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett, indicated that the slowdown in revenue growth among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and broader earnings momentum could limit further market gains [3] - There are concerns that ongoing effects of Trump-era policies may lead to increased market volatility [3]

5月16日，大盘出现了一个调整，和讯投顾谢正光分析，但是这个调整我们从盘面上可以看得出来，也 就是前期带领大盘上涨的银行股的调整，对今天大盘造成一种调整。那么现在大盘实际上我们如果从盘 面上整体来进行5000多只个股进行分类的话，它实际上分成两类股，也就是什么？当银行股涨的时候指 数涨，但是其他的股票呢并不跟涨相反，呢还可能出现一些震荡的调整。但是当银行股调整的时候，呢 其他的股票呢反而呢呃开始轮动的表现。比如说呃港口，啊呃军工，啊包括物流，啊包括农业，啊包括 今天的那个皮革材料，呃汽车零部件，它是轮番的进行轮动上涨，所以说我们感觉它好像是在一个狭窄 的区间内进行震荡。 那么回到大盘，大盘呢今天呢我们说的是呃上涨过程中，从上证指数的技术面看，它是沿着5天线上涨 的，今天的5天线破了破了是不是？呃有很大的问题。呢那么我们昨天在视频当中说了就是说前面刚才 分析了银行股和其他大盘的关系，那么你再来今天看这个下跌的这个时机其实就好理解了，今天是什 么？指数下跌过程中反而个股涨幅加速增加。我个人认为大盘在这个地方还会有一个震荡的空间，为什 么？呢因为银行股唉刚刚开始调整的第一天还会有连续调整的呃一个过程。这一点呢你看前 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations with a general upward trend in individual stocks, while banks and liquor stocks are undergoing adjustments [1][3] - The trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating potential signs of a market peak [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing pessimism among investors, with many believing the market is in a continuous decline [1][7] - The current market sentiment suggests that a cautious approach is advisable, as trading with negative emotions can lead to further losses [1][7] Market Predictions - The expectation is for the market to rebound after a period of decline, with a potential rise to above 3500 points, which could improve investor sentiment [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of significant upward movement, with large funds likely waiting for a more opportune moment to act [3][5] Sector Analysis - Key sectors such as real estate, securities, and liquor are highlighted as critical areas to watch, especially in light of recent favorable news that did not lead to expected price increases [5] - The market is currently seeing a significant divergence in performance among small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in technology-related sectors [3][5] Trading Dynamics - The market is expected to continue its oscillation, with a focus on patience and waiting for the right opportunities rather than engaging in short-term trading [5][7] - The current trading environment is not conducive to short-term speculative opportunities, as many stocks are experiencing temporary price increases without sustained momentum [5][7]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on May 15, with the three major indices experiencing fluctuations and closing down, specifically the CSI A500 index fell by 1.04% [1] - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as beauty care, agriculture, and food and beverage saw gains [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) recorded a decrease of 0.94% in a single day, with a trading volume exceeding 3.7 billion yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] Group 2 - In the past week, the A500 ETF fund (512050) saw an increase in scale by 579 million yuan and an increase in shares by 40.5 million, both leading in its category [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target points for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points respectively, indicating an upside potential of 11% and 17% from current levels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintained an "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market, favoring domestic-oriented industries and recommending increased holdings in consumer goods, technology, and banking sectors [1] Group 3 - According to the latest report from Cinda Securities, there is a preference for large-cap value stocks in the current quarter, with an expectation to increase flexibility in Q3 [1] - The report suggests focusing on new directions with positive fundamental changes expected due to policy catalysts, including military industry growth, benefiting metals from price increases, and value themes related to stable growth in financial real estate [1]

Group 1 - The market briefly reached the 3400-point level but has since fallen below it, indicating potential adjustment signals [1] - There is no significant selling pressure as the trading volume has decreased, suggesting that the current adjustment may be a controlled pullback rather than panic selling [1] - A clear adjustment signal will only be confirmed if the market breaks below the 5-day moving average, which is currently being tested [1] Group 2 - The potential adjustment space is limited, with support levels near the gap and the 20-day moving average around 3320 points, indicating a small adjustment of about 50 points [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent market volume increase indicates the entry of counterparty funds, suggesting a potential short-term pullback by the main funds before further upward movement to new highs [1] - The market experienced a volume decrease today, indicating that selling pressure is not significant, and large declines are unlikely, suggesting investors should not panic [1] - The ChiNext 50 index reached a peak with maximum trading volume, indicating that despite a pullback, it is expected to continue rising to new highs [1] Group 2 - The current market is in a "volatile upward mode," which is generally more favorable than a "one-sided upward mode," as it allows for better digestion of profit-taking and trapped positions [2] - For medium to long-term positions, it is advisable to hold due to low cost bases, while short-term trading may be challenging due to volatility [2] - Two support levels are identified at 3350 points and 3300 points, with 3300 points being more significant as it represents a platform for main fund accumulation [2]

（原标题：和讯投顾韩东峰：大盘3400点遇阻回落，下方支撑3300点附近，消费龙头轮番涨） 现在给大家一个思路，啊呈现的我们一直说看好是保险银行啊和一些大盘股这些第二个思路呢就是要看 好各个行业的代表性公司已经去港股h股来发行了，那么这些品种啊融到资以后，或许能够在接下来市 场竞争当中能够更胜一筹，注意进去跟踪一下。那么第三个方面呢就是我们盯住政策方面和数据方面有 利的部分，比如前两天跟他说有色金属及线材，今天有一个就打板了，那么这些数据我们要值得进一步 的关注，其他的话还是以耐心为主，不要着急。 昨天刚刚站上了3400点，今天又失守了，和讯投顾韩东峰分析，好多人担心会不会回落到3300点附近， 那即便是回到3300点附近，一共才几十个点过去经历过，这种上百点是几百点的震荡都没有受到惊吓， 这一点回调又怕什么？呢现在看啊30条均线，还有包括缺口120均线都在这个附近，所以回落完这个附 近之后呢仍然还是个震荡区间，维持咱们月初的判断，3300~3400之间震荡而已。那么昨天为什么冲高 完了以后今天就回落了，呢接下来会不会继续上攻？我认为在这个位置的话，大方向还是以震荡为主， 啊太急的上涨需要一个给力的证券板块发 ...