交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年4月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：USDA:泰国25/26年度糖产量预计增长2%，达1030万吨。ISO:24/25年度糖缺口488.1万 吨，之前预估缺口251.3万吨。Green Pool：预计25/26年度全球糖市过剩270万吨，前一年度预计 为短缺370万吨。25年1月1日起，进口糖浆及预混粉关税从12%调整到20%，调整后的关税接近原糖 配额外进口关税。2025年3月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1074.79万吨；全国累计销糖 599.58万吨；销糖率55.79%（去年同期49.46%）。2025年3月中国进口食 ...

Market Overview - Domestic sugar futures (Zheng sugar) experienced a high-level adjustment, with a weekly decline of 103 CNY/ton, or -1.66%, closing at 6086 CNY/ton[4] - International raw sugar (New York sugar) saw a weekly drop of 1.1 cents, or -5.81%, ending at 17.83 cents/pound due to weak demand and adverse weather conditions in Brazil[4] Production and Sales - For the 2023/24 sugar production period, total sugar output reached 10.748 million tons, an increase of 1.175 million tons year-on-year[7] - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 5.9958 million tons, up 1.2613 million tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 55.79%, reflecting a 6.33% increase[7] Import Dynamics - Current import profits for Brazilian raw sugar are at -247.16 CNY/ton, while Thai white sugar stands at -129.81 CNY/ton, indicating reduced profitability for imports[8] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The sentiment in the raw sugar market is negative due to concerns over demand and the impact of tariff policies, leading to a price drop below 18 cents[25] - Short-term expectations suggest a potential rebound in raw sugar prices if tariff conditions improve, but demand remains weak above 19 cents[25] Domestic Sugar Market Outlook - Domestic sugar prices are expected to be influenced by the tightening of syrup policies and the need to fill production gaps, with potential upward pressure on prices as Brazilian supplies remain uncertain[26]