进口糖陆续到港 郑糖被动跟随原糖走势 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 国际方面，考虑到巴西即将迎来供应高峰，预计全球库存即将进入累库阶段，预计原糖整体维持震荡运行，短期则根据阶 段性生产数据影响盘面节奏，后续还需关注巴西生产进度及实际增产幅度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快，预计对糖价有所支撑。不过考虑到进口糖即将大量进入国内市场，或拖累糖价下行。叠加原糖 近期走势偏弱，短期糖价维持偏弱运行。 【逻辑分析】 原糖近期受全球供应增加预期拖累有所下跌，糖价中枢下移。反观国内，夏季备货需求滞后，叠加原糖短期弱势运行，配 额外进口利润再度走高，加工糖供应压力即将兑现，预计郑糖短期被动跟随原糖价格波动。 【交易策略】 GALAXY FUTURES 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 3 全球糖市新榨季丰产预期令糖价承压 数据来源：ISO，Cz ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 17 日 白糖：开启反弹 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 17.02 | 0.48 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 128 | -3 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6060 | 0 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 40 | 2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5667 | 3 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 393 | -3 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：原油大涨；巴西中南部 MIX 同比大幅提高；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季全球产量增长 4.73%；巴 西 5 月出口 225 万吨，同比减少 20%；截至 5 月 15 日，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2574 万吨。中国 1-4 月常规进 口，糖浆和预拌粉进口大幅下降。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1115 万吨，消费量为 1 ...

国产糖产销进度偏快 加工糖补充国内市场 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 国际方面，考虑到巴西即将迎来供应高峰，预计全球库存即将进入累库阶段，预计原糖整体维持震荡运行，短期则根据阶 段性生产数据影响盘面节奏，后续还需关注巴西生产进度及实际增产幅度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快，预计对糖价有所支撑。不过考虑到进口糖即将大量进入国内市场，或拖累糖价下行。叠加原糖 近期走势偏弱，短期糖价维持偏弱运行。 【逻辑分析】 原糖近期受巴西丰产预期拖累、盘面有所下行，后续还需关注天气变化对甘蔗压榨进度及原糖边际变化的影响。反观国 内，夏季备货需求滞后，叠加原糖短期走势偏弱，预计郑糖维持弱势。 【交易策略】 GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. 单边：弱势看待。 2. 套利：观望。 3. 期权：虚值比例价差期权。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数 ...

进口糖供应压力即将兑现 郑糖或将维持弱势 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 综合分析与交易策略 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 【综合分析】 国际方面，考虑到巴西即将迎来供应高峰，预计全球库存即将进入累库阶段，原糖整体维持震荡运行，短期则根据阶段性 生产数据影响盘面节奏，后续还需关注巴西生产进度及实际增产幅度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快、去库前置。考虑到大量进口糖预期到港，预计对糖价有所压制。叠加糖价受到原糖价格偏弱、 进口糖价格下跌的拖累，预计短期糖价维持偏弱走势。 【逻辑分析】 原糖近期受巴西丰产预期拖累、破位下行，后续还需关注天气变化对甘蔗压榨进度及原糖边际变化的影响。反观国内，夏 季备货需求滞后，叠加原糖短期走势偏弱，配额外进口利润再度走高，加工糖供应压力即将兑现，预计郑糖维持弱势。 【交易策略】 1. 单边：偏弱看待。 2. 套利：观望。 3. 期权：虚值比例价差期权。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西供应，白糖短期有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-30 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].