2025年9月第4周，共计20个工作日，巴西累计装出白糖291.59万吨，去年9月为387.95万吨。日均装运量 为14.58万吨/日，较去年9月的18.47万吨/日减少21.08%。 消息面 广发期货： 新榨季内蒙古、新疆已经开榨，预计下周新糖就会上市销售，给现货市场一定的压力。国内市场交投情 绪趋于谨慎，同时随着本轮双节备货结束，整体购销氛围相对清淡。预计整体维持偏弱走势。四季度策 略：保持偏空思路，但考虑到价格下跌较多，谨慎追空，以反弹偏空交易为主。 华联期货： 市场方面，巴西25/26榨季压榨高峰期的制糖比仍然持续偏高，远高于历史同期，巴西糖厂的制糖偏好 明显；北半球25/26榨季的产量预期乐观，供需格局趋向宽松。叠加7月增量进口，国内食糖供需压力进 一步增大。国内临近假期，商品市场整体氛围还是偏弱。目前北方甜菜糖产区已经有糖厂开榨，预计国 内食糖25/26榨季产量或平稳略增，进口糖近期大量到港，国内食糖供应压力继续增加，国内供需基本 面持续趋向宽松，中期需要关注甘蔗糖新糖开榨前的旧糖去库情况，或影响波段行情的时间节奏。原糖 趋势方向未改之前，预计国内糖价维持低位震荡走势。操作上建议适当短空，郑糖26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Due to Brazil entering the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter the accumulation phase, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [3]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile due to the influence of domestic and foreign markets. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The 24/25 northern hemisphere sugar production increase was less than expected, and the 25/26 northern hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar - pressing situation [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The sugar production in central - southern Brazil has increased, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has reached a recent high. Although the sugarcane yield per unit is affected by weather and the sugar content is lower than the same period, the sugar - making ratio is high [8][9]. - **Cumulative Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil has reached a new high, and the cumulative sugar production has also increased [11][12]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports and Inventory**: Brazilian sugar exports have increased, and the inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period [14]. - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: The 24/25 sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.82 million tons). The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a slight increase [15]. - **India**: The 24/25 sugar production was about 26.1 million tons. As of July 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 26.103 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ethanol volume on the sugar supply - demand [19][21]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Sugar Production**: The 24/25 sugar sales - to - production ratio was higher than the same period, and the inventory remained at a low level. The 25/26 domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to have a restorative increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [23]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit has increased, leading to a strong import expectation. The import volume is expected to increase. In June 2025, China imported 424,600 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the import volume was 1.0508 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the import volume was 2.5126 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons, a decline of 20.54%. In July, 469,100 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar actually arrived at the port, and 206,300 tons were forecast to arrive in August [26][34][37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No detailed summary content provided in the given text, only some data charts are presented, including data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, and domestic sugar production and imports.

Report Overview - The report is the Sugar Industry Daily Report on August 11, 2025, covering various aspects of the sugar industry including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and market news [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Report's Core View - Import expectations are increasing, spot prices are weak, and the far - month contracts corresponding to the new crushing season are mainly weak in the short term. It is recommended to conduct rebound short - selling transactions [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,573 yuan/ton with no change; the main contract's open interest is 307,158 lots, an increase of 6,182 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 18,240 sheets, a decrease of 305 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 36,182 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,584 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,683 yuan/ton. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,825 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6,010 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 billion tons, an increase of 0.2347 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 12.62%, an increase of 6.07 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 12.62%, an increase of 6.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.54% with no change [2] Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80 (previously 79), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 billion tons (previously 3.5531 billion tons). Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed up 1.5%, and on Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Globally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of sugar cane in the 2025/26 season, leading to a short - term rebound in raw sugar prices [2] Viewpoint Summary - Conab Analytics reports that the decline in the per - unit yield of sugar cane in Brazil may reduce Brazil's 2025/26 sugar cane output to less than 600 million tons, far lower than Conab's forecast of 663.4 million tons. Domestically, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, and the import pressure is released. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. In terms of inventory, the previous production and sales progress was good, and the current inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. According to the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' sugar supply - demand report, the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 1,120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in production, import volumes, and international market conditions, with a potential rebound in the second half of 2025 depending on import dynamics and global supply factors [1][35]. Domestic Market Situation - Sugar production for the 2024/2025 season reached 11.1621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% [4]. - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [4]. - The sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The sugar import volume in May 2025 was 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 33,000 tons year-on-year [7]. - Industrial sugar inventory as of May 2025 was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 32.21% year-on-year, indicating lower sales pressure for sugar factories [12]. International Market Situation - Global sugar production is projected to increase from 180.75 million tons in 2024/2025 to 189.31 million tons in 2025/2026, a growth of 4.73% [26]. - The USDA forecasts a total global sugar demand of 177.92 million tons for 2025/2026, up 1.4% from the previous year [26]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to be affected by adverse weather conditions, with a significant decrease in sugar output anticipated [28]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with estimates ranging from 31.6 million to 35 million tons for the 2025/2026 season [31]. Summary of Market Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance in the domestic market appears loose, with projected sugar production of 11.16 million tons and imports of 5 million tons against a consumption of 15.8 million tons [35]. - The import pace in the second half of the year will be crucial for determining sugar price trends, with expectations of reaching 2.4 million tons from June to September [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent domestic sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but due to rising domestic demand, they perform better than the international market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5828 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 321,770 lots, up 8,938 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,857, down 432. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -14,462 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,606 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,855 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 1,486 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,356 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 275 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 107 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.51%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In June, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [2]. - Internationally, with the monsoon season coming, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support and limiting short - term decline [2]. - From the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The sugar production in the central - southern region was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - According to Brazilian foreign trade data, Brazil exported 1.36992641 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the sugar market, presenting current price data, macro and industry news, and supply - demand forecasts. It indicates that the sugar market is waiting for super - expected information guidance [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.56 cents/pound with a 0% year - on - year change; the mainstream spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is 172 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 242 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan year - on - year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in central - southern Brazil is still slow, but the MIX is significantly higher year - on - year; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] 3.3 Supply - Demand Forecast - **Domestic Market**: CAOC predicts that in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's sugar production will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2] - **International Market**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 4.88 million tons). As of July 1 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.33 percentage points year - on - year. As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar (+1.27 million tons) [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be under pressure due to the global sugar market's expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season. The ISO has raised its estimate of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, while Datagro predicts a global sugar surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9] - The price of raw sugar has recently declined due to the expectation of increased global supply, and the price center has shifted downward. Domestically, the summer stocking demand is lagging, and the short - term weakness of raw sugar has led to a rise in the profit of out - of - quota imports. The supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the price fluctuations of raw sugar in the short term [4] - Considering that Brazil is about to enter the peak supply period, the global sugar inventory is expected to start accumulating. Raw sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend overall, and the short - term price will be affected by phased production data. In the domestic market, the fast sales - to - production ratio is expected to support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil approaching the supply peak, global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate, and raw sugar will likely oscillate. Short - term price movements will be influenced by production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [3] - Domestically, the fast sales - to - production ratio supports sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar may pull prices down. Combined with the weak raw sugar trend, short - term domestic sugar prices will be weak [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Be bearish on the market [5] - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5] - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5] 2. Core Logic Analysis - The expectation of increased global sugar supply has dragged down raw sugar prices, and the domestic summer stocking demand lag, along with the weak raw sugar, has led to higher out - of - quota import profits and impending processed sugar supply pressure, causing Zhengzhou sugar to follow raw sugar prices [4] 3. Weekly Data Tracking International Data - Brazil: In the second half of May, sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 8.86% year - on - year. In June, the first two weeks' sugar and molasses exports were 1.53 million tons, a 12.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 1.94% week - on - week [10][20] - India: The NFCSF estimates the 2024/25 season's ending sugar inventory to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption in key months in 2025. The sugar ex - factory price is stable. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production, reaching about 35 million metric tons [21] - Thailand: The 2024/25 season ended in April with a total sugar production of 10.03 million metric tons. The OSCB expects the 2025/26 season's production to increase to 10.05 million tons, with an estimated increase in sugarcane planting area [24] Domestic Data - In the 2024/25 season, China's sugar production ended with a total of 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year [27] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons. From January to May 2025, the total sugar imports were 633,200 tons, a 50.31% year - on - year decrease. As of May in the 2024/25 season, China imported 2.095 million tons of sugar, a 33.16% year - on - year decrease [29] - In May 2025, China imported 64,300 tons of syrup and premixed powder, with 47,700 tons under the 2106.90 item [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that sugar has started a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 17.02 cents per pound with a year - on - year increase of 0.48; the mainstream spot price is 6060 yuan per ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5667 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 3 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 128 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 3; the 15 spread is 40 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 3 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Crude oil prices have risen significantly; the MIX in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly year - on - year; the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season; Brazil exported 2.25 million tons in May, a 20% year - on - year decrease; as of May 15, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 sugar season; China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April have decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Actual Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 8.11 million tons of sugar (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7%; as of the end of April, China imported 1.74 million tons of sugar (-1.38 million tons) [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply Shortage Forecast**: ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of June 1 in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 12 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 6.95 million tons (-0.92 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; as of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons); as of April 9 in the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.05 million tons of sugar (+1.31 million tons) [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be under pressure due to the expected global sugar surplus in the new season. The ISO has raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season, but Datagro expects a surplus in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. - Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, but exports in May decreased compared to the same period last year. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting for shipment have also decreased [10][18][20]. - In India, the 2024/25 season's ending sugar inventory is sufficient to meet domestic demand, and the sugar price is stable. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production [21]. - In China, the 2024/25 sugar production has ended, with an increase in both production and sales. The 2025/26 season's supply and demand forecast remains unchanged, and the current growing conditions for sugarcane and beets are favorable [24]. - The short - term sugar price is expected to be weak. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support the price, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag it down. Internationally, the approaching supply peak in Brazil and the weak recent performance of raw sugar also contribute to the weak outlook [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Internationally, with Brazil approaching the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to start accumulating. Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and its short - term trend will be affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestically, the fast sales pace may support the sugar price, but the large - scale import of sugar and the weak recent performance of raw sugar may lead to a short - term weakening of the sugar price [3]. - **Logic Analysis** - Raw sugar prices have declined due to the expected high yield in Brazil. Future weather changes may affect the sugarcane crushing progress and raw sugar supply. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand and the weak short - term performance of raw sugar are expected to keep Zhengzhou sugar prices weak [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Bearish view. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The expected high yield in the global sugar market's new season is putting pressure on sugar prices. The ISO has adjusted its forecast for the 2024/25 season's sugar shortage, and Datagro expects a surplus in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Brazil** - S&P Global expects an increase in sugar production in the second half of May in Brazil's central - southern region [10]. - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports were 225.66 million tons, a decrease of 55.45 million tons (19.72%) compared to the same period last year. From April to May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar exports were 380.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.84% [20]. - As of the week of June 11, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 90 to 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting for shipment decreased by 33.66 million tons (10.36%) to 291.04 million tons compared to the previous week [20]. - **India** - The NFCSF estimates that the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season will be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic demand from October to November 2025 and stabilize the sugar price. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production [21]. - **China** - In June, the 2024/25 sugar production was adjusted to 11.16 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. As of the end of May, the cumulative production was 11.16 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons), and the cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons). The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year [24]. - In April, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the total sugar imports were 278,400 tons, a decrease of 979,100 tons (77.86%) compared to the same period last year. From the start of the 2024/25 season to April, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.7401 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3773 million tons (44.18%) [26]. - From the start of the 2024/25 season to April, the cumulative imports of three types of goods under item 170290 were 806,700 tons, a decrease of 125,300 tons (13.44%) compared to the same period last year [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. With Brazil approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production [3]. - In the domestic market, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. - Recently, raw sugar has broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production. Domestically, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. Logical Analysis - Raw sugar has recently broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, so Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Be bearish. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. The ISO has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, the highest level of supply - demand shortage in 9 years. However, it is expected that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. - In Brazil, as of the second half of April in the 2025/26 season, sugar production decreased slightly year - on - year. In May, sugar exports decreased by 19.72% year - on - year. As of the week of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, the same as the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from the previous week [10][19][21]. - The NFCSF in India expects the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption demand from October to November 2025. It is also expected that the sugar production will strongly recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million metric tons [22]. - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 23.07% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The average sales price of refined white sugar in May 2025 was 6,026 yuan/ton, a decrease of 392 yuan/ton year - on - year [25]. Weekly Data Tracking - In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons year - on - year. From January to April 2025, China imported 278,400 tons of sugar, a decrease of 77.86% year - on - year. As of April in the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.7401 million tons, a decrease of 44.18% year - on - year [27]. - As of April in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of three types of goods under item 170290 were 806,700 tons, a decrease of 13.44% year - on - year [28].