周一(4月28日)欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率涨2.9个基点，报4.508%，北京时间22:27曾涨至4.529% 刷新日高。两年期英债收益率涨0.8个基点，报3.865%，22:27也曾涨至3.885%刷新日高。30年期英债收 益率涨5.1个基点，50年期英债收益率涨6.3个基点。2/10年期英债收益率利差涨2.12个基点，报+64.07个 基点。 ...

新华社北京4月23日电 经济知识问答｜为什么市场抛售会推高美债收益率 新华社记者宿亮 曹筱凡 2024财年，美国政府的利息支出已超过1万亿美元，占GDP约4%，占全年财政收入比例超过22%，也就 是说政府收入近四分之一要拿去付利息。这种背景下，美国政府信用动摇导致票面利率不断提高，会继 续推高美国财政负担。 当美国政府信用动摇时，美国联邦储备委员会作为美债的"最后保险人"会出资增持美债，相当于向市场 增发美元，这实际上就是"财政赤字货币化"。 债券价格和收益率的关系涉及几个概念：发行价、到期价、市场价、票面利率。 根据圣路易斯联储银行的数据，截至2024年第四季度，美联储持有的美国政府债务总额为4.6万亿美 元。这笔钱是美联储和美国联邦政府通过左手倒右手"制造"出来的现金。从2019年开始，美联储持有的 美债规模显著增长，显示近年来美联储不得不增发更多货币才能稳定美债收益率，由此不断削弱美元信 用。（完） 举例来说，一张债券发行价为100美元，到期价为105美元，那么票面利率就是5%。不过，这个5%的票 面利率并不等于收益率，因为债券可以上市交易，在到期前根据供求关系涨价、降价。交易过程中，如 果购买者以10 ...

英国30年期债券收益率升至自3月26日以来的最高水平，达到5.395%，日内上涨7.7个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the short-term interbank interest rate, DR007, is expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% in the near future, with limited upward or downward potential due to the current monetary policy stance and the behavior of resident deposits [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Perspective - The central bank's monetary policy is currently in a tight balance, influenced by the release of resident deposits, which has reduced the necessity for further monetary easing [4][6]. - The upward potential for interest rates is constrained by the temporary reverse repurchase agreement rate cap set at 2.0% [6][22]. - The current situation indicates that the need for the central bank to increase liquidity is decreasing as resident deposits transition from accumulation to release [6][21]. Group 2: Resident Deposits and Bond Yield Comparison - The yields on three-year and five-year government bonds are currently higher than the corresponding fixed deposit rates offered by major banks, indicating an attractive opportunity for residents to invest in bonds [7][25]. - As of the end of 2024, the three-year government bond yield is approximately 1.25%, and the five-year yield is about 1.49%, both lower than the fixed deposit rates, suggesting that bond returns are primarily driven by capital gains rather than interest income [25][27]. - Recent adjustments in the bond market show that as of March 21, 2025, the three-year and five-year government bond yields have risen to 1.64% and 1.70%, respectively, indicating a shift in attractiveness towards bonds compared to fixed deposits [25][27]. Group 3: Banking System and Bond Yield Relationship - The inversion between DR007 and the ten-year government bond yield has largely ended, suggesting that the most rapid adjustments in bond yields may have already occurred [8][29]. - However, the one-year interbank deposit rate remains higher than the ten-year government bond yield, indicating that banks are still in a phase of needing to secure liabilities [8][29]. - The current financial environment suggests that as long as the one-year interbank deposit rate exceeds the ten-year government bond yield, the optimal window for banks to invest in ten-year government bonds has not yet arrived [8][29].

Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 382 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 4, with an operation rate of 1.5%. On the same day, 318.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 280.3 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of funds for two consecutive days in March, which does not hinder the overall liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bonds - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit traded around 1.99%, showing little change from the previous day [5]. - Major interbank bond yields initially declined but then fluctuated and turned upward. For instance, the 1-year government bond yield was at 1.4600%, while the 10-year yield was at 1.7175% [7]. - The recent trends in city investment bonds (AAA) across various maturities indicate changes in yield spreads [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated a stronger case for interest rate cuts, expressing concerns over economic downturn risks and the potential for prolonged tight monetary policy. If inflation persists, rates may remain at 4.1% for an extended period or could be increased [11]. Group 4: Bond Market Events - The National People's Congress Standing Committee will strengthen supervision over government debt management. Additionally, work has begun on issuing 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds by 2025 [13]. - Longfor Group successfully redeemed the "20 Longfor 04" bond, with a total redemption amount of 2.5 billion yuan [13].

文 ｜ 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 近期债市波动明显加大，债券发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债以避免市场波动的影响，由 此信用债的取消发行规模也明显抬升。与2 0 2 2年以来历轮债券取消发行所对比，我们认为本轮取 消发行是多方因素共振的结果，其一是发债主体主动进行融资成本管理，其二是发债主体保护自身 对于未来市场的"定价权"，避免因高融资成本释放"负面印象"，其三是后续地方债供给放量引起市 场偏谨慎。往后看，若后续负债端赎回压力可控，预计本轮信用债取消发行潮高峰并不会持续过 久。从配置角度看，在当前基准利率波动时期，信用债票息性价比会更加显著，年初更应把握短端 收益率反弹的机会。 ▍ 受债市波动影响，近期信用债推迟或取消发行规模明显抬升。 受资金面偏紧影响，近期债券市场波动加剧，且为避免市场波动对债券发行定价的不利影响，近 期发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债。根据企业预警通数据，2 0 2 5年2月1 7日至2月2 3 日，累计公告信用债取消或推迟发行共2 8只，合计1 4 8 . 8 0亿元，为近一年第二高单周取消发行规 模。具体来看，今年以来取消发行的信用债主体集中在中高等级的国企，且主 ...