日本央行宣布下季度将缩减超长期债券购买规模。 据周二发布的一份申明，日本央行下季度每月将购买3450亿日元（约合23亿美元）到期期限为10至25年的债券，低于本季度的4050亿日元，购买 量环比下降15%。 日本央行下季度所有期限债券的月度购买量预计将从本季度的3.705万亿日元降至3.3万亿日元，进一步偏离宽松的货币政策，越来越多的市场参与 者预期日本央行10月份将进一步加息。 近期，日本10年期以上债券受到重挫，年内跌幅已超9%，约为其他期限债券的两倍多。此轮抛售由多重因素驱动：顽固通胀迫使市场重新定价长 期利率，作为持有主力的寿险公司需求下降，加之政治动荡引发市场对政府扩大支出的担忧，致使超长期限债券尤为承压。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 三井住友信托资产管理公司高级策略师稻留胜俊表示，日本央行减少债券购买的规模略高于预期，可能会对债券市场产生轻微利空的影响。 尽管10至25年期债券及所有期限债券的购买量均有下降，25年以上到期债券的 ...

Group 1 - The long-term bond market is experiencing significant volatility due to rising government borrowing demands and expanding deficits, leading to higher yield requirements from investors [1][4] - The UK has become a focal point of this turmoil, with the Chancellor's proposed £50 billion welfare cuts being rejected, raising concerns about the government's fiscal discipline and resulting in a sharp increase in 30-year UK bond yields [1][4] - The sensitivity of long-term bonds to fiscal risks is attributed to their illiquid market, where even minor sell-offs can lead to substantial price drops and yield spikes [3][4] Group 2 - Various governments, including the US, Japan, and Australia, are reconsidering their issuance strategies for long-term bonds in light of high interest rates and fiscal concerns [4][6] - Japan's recent announcement to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds has led to a temporary stabilization in demand for its 30-year bonds, although yields still rose due to global market pressures [6][7] - Investors are increasingly favoring short-term bonds over long-term ones due to the heightened sensitivity of the latter to fiscal and political risks, as well as the demand for higher yields as compensation for these risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's deliberation highlights concerns that increased volatility in ultra-long-term bonds may lead to unexpected tightening effects across the entire yield curve, impacting the broader market [1] Group 1 - A member of the Bank of Japan expressed that the rising volatility in ultra-long-term bonds could have repercussions on the entire yield curve [1] - The potential tightening effect on the market is considered non-anticipated, indicating a level of uncertainty in market responses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that there are currently no obstacles to the stable issuance of government bonds [1] Group 1: Government Bonds - Since April, the yields on ultra-long-term bonds have risen sharply [1] - The expectation is that the Bank of Japan will manage its monetary policy towards a 2% inflation target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has reported a significant deterioration in the supply-demand situation for ultra-long-term bonds, leading to a substantial increase in interest rates [1] Group 1 - The supply-demand conditions for ultra-long-term bonds have worsened significantly [1] - There has been a notable rise in interest rates associated with these bonds [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that ultra-long-term interest rates have significantly increased [1] - The government will closely monitor financial market dynamics, including ultra-long-term bond trading [1] - The aim is to promote economic growth while implementing fiscal reforms [1] - There will be comprehensive communication with market participants [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japanese issuers have demonstrated resilience in the face of soaring ultra-long bond yields [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that despite the increase in ultra-long bond yields, Japanese companies have managed to maintain their funding capabilities [1] - It notes that the overall credit quality of Japanese issuers remains stable, indicating a strong financial position [1] - The report suggests that the market's reaction to rising yields has been relatively muted, reflecting confidence in the Japanese economy [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25%, with a cautious tone in its statement, and the decision was made with a vote of 5 in favor and 1 against [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that tariffs will only cause temporary fluctuations in U.S. inflation, estimating that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation will rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025, with a cooling labor market and wage growth dropping from over 4% in 2022 to 2.9% currently [1] - The Australian Federal Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cautiously lower interest rates further, with a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut in July, down from 70% prior to data release [2] Group 2 - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower the OCR one to two more times before the current cycle ends, with one expected cut in the third quarter, adjusting the highest rate forecast for August to 3% [2] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management analysts believe that market pessimism regarding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is exaggerated, suggesting investors increase duration as the yield premium on long-term U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise [2] - Analysts note weak demand for Japanese government bonds, leading to rising yields on 30-year bonds, which may impact the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to hold a meeting with primary dealers on June 20 to discuss the recent rise in ultra-long-term bond yields [1] Group 1 - The meeting is expected to address concerns regarding the increase in ultra-long-term bond yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plan, which may include a reduction in the issuance scale of ultra-long-term bonds [1] Group 1 - The potential adjustment reflects a strategic shift in Japan's approach to managing its debt issuance [1] - The focus on ultra-long-term bonds indicates a response to changing market conditions and investor demand [1]